Bitcoin’s day-to-day activity is accelerating again, even as the asset’s price action remains relatively unimpressive. According to CryptoQuant, transactions smaller than 0.01 BTC—often associated with “dust” or data-driven on-chain activity—now make up about 80% of all daily transfers on the network, taking overall network activity close to record levels.

In a report released Thursday, CryptoQuant said its Bitcoin “Network Activity Index” has turned positive for the first time since 2024. The change matters because it signals that block space demand is increasingly being driven by non-financial usage—an environment that can translate into more competition for space and higher fees for users who rely on standard economic transactions.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant reports that sub-0.01 BTC transactions represent roughly 80% of daily Bitcoin activity, up sharply from earlier years.
• CryptoQuant’s Network Activity Index has moved into positive territory for the first time since 2024, despite weaker price performance.
• Data-inscription and related protocols—especially Ordinals, Runes, BRC-20 activity, and timestamping services—are cited as major contributors.
• Growing micro-transaction volumes can increase block space competition, potentially pushing up fees for “economic” transactions.
• Bitcoin’s mempool is reported at around 128,000 transactions, the highest level since February 2025.

Microtransactions rebound as share of daily volume grows

The most striking development is the shift in the composition of transactions. CryptoQuant notes that transactions below 0.01 BTC accounted for about 44% of daily transactions in 2023, but their share has nearly doubled since then.

CryptoQuant attributes this acceleration largely to inscription-centric demand and other data-writing approaches. In particular, the report highlights Ordinals and Runes—along with BRC-20 activity and data-timestamping protocols—as major drivers of low-value, high-count transactions. This helps explain why overall network activity can rise even when traders are not broadly chasing price momentum.

Research lead Julio Moreno wrote that sustained growth in non-financial activity could “increase block space competition and raise fees for economic transactions.” He also cautioned that the economic value of these transactions is “disproportionately small,” underscoring a key tension: the network can appear busier while the value per transaction remains low.

From earlier inscription booms to today’s renewed congestion

CryptoQuant’s report places the current wave in context by comparing it to past periods when inscription activity pushed Bitcoin toward congestion. The company says congestion levels today remain below the peaks associated with earlier inscription booms, when users embedded data such as images, text, and token-like information directly in blocks.

According to the report, transaction backlogs surged in 2023 as Ordinals and BRC-20 competed with routine transfers for limited block space. It then points to another spike emerging in late 2024 following the launch of the Runes protocol. The latest increase appears to follow that same pattern: bursts of on-chain data activity generate large numbers of transactions, which can swell network queues and raise the likelihood of fee pressure.

Importantly for readers, congestion is not just an abstract metric. When block space demand concentrates in low-value transactions, it can still alter fee dynamics for everyone—particularly those sending standard payments that depend on timely confirmation.

OP_RETURN usage and the mechanics behind higher transaction counts

Beyond the headline micro-transaction shares, CryptoQuant’s research also points to the specific transaction design choices fueling the trend. The report says Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and data-timestamping services produce large volumes of low-value transactions, helping drive the rise in the smallest cohort.

A central element in this mechanism is OP_RETURN, an opcode that allows users to embed data on-chain without creating spendable outputs. CryptoQuant reports that OP_RETURN usage has climbed to near-record levels in 2026.

That increase ties back to a contentious development within Bitcoin’s infrastructure: in 2025, Bitcoin Core developers removed a long-standing 80-byte relay limit. Critics argued the change would make it easier to use Bitcoin for non-financial data storage, effectively lowering friction for larger data embeddings. CryptoQuant frames OP_RETURN as the standard approach for many Bitcoin data-layer protocols, meaning changes in relay behavior can influence how much data activity the network can absorb.

These protocols generate high volumes of dust-value transactions (as low as 546 satoshis), directly explaining the low-value cohort surge.

Put differently, the “how” of transactions matters as much as the “how many.” Even when users are not transferring large amounts of value, on-chain data operations can still consume block resources—resulting in a higher count of transactions competing for inclusion.

Mempool pressure rises alongside the micro-transaction wave

CryptoQuant’s report also connects micro-transaction growth to observable network conditions. It says Bitcoin’s mempool—where unconfirmed transactions wait—has risen to roughly 128,000 transactions. That figure is described as the highest transaction count since February 2025.

For market participants and users, mempool size is often treated as a practical proxy for near-term congestion. While the report notes that current conditions are still below earlier inscription peaks, the combination of a high share of sub-0.01 BTC transactions and a swollen mempool suggests that fee markets may remain sensitive, especially for transactions that need confirmation during busy periods.

Another important implication is that the network’s “busy” signal may increasingly reflect data-layer usage rather than straightforward economic demand. That distinction can affect how participants interpret on-chain metrics: rising activity may not correspond to higher on-chain settlement value, even if it does correspond to greater resource competition.

Looking ahead, readers should watch whether this micro-transaction-driven activity persists and whether mempool levels remain elevated long enough to translate into sustained fee pressure for standard payments. CryptoQuant’s index turning positive after a multi-year stretch is a meaningful early sign—but the key question is whether non-financial activity continues to outpace demand for economic transactions, reshaping fee dynamics as the cycle progresses.

Microtransactions below 0.01 Bitcoin (BTC) now account for roughly 80% of all daily transactions on the network, pushing transaction activity close to record highs despite weak price performance.

The surge has pushed CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin “Network Activity Index” into positive territory for the first time since 2024, according to a Thursday report by the blockchain data company.

Transactions below 0.01 BTC represented about 44% of all daily Bitcoin transactions in 2023, but their share has nearly doubled since then, fueled largely by Ordinals, Runes and other data-inscription protocols.

The report, authored by CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, said sustained growth in non-financial activity could “increase block space competition and raise fees for economic transactions.”

“The economic value of these transactions is, however, disproportionately small,” Moreno wrote.

Bitcoin’s network activity is 7% below its all-time high recorded in September 2024. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin sees renewed inscription-driven congestion

The current congestion remains below the peaks seen during previous booms in Bitcoin inscriptions, when users embedded data such as images, text and token information directly on the blockchain.

Transaction backlogs surged in 2023 as Ordinals and BRC-20 activity competed with ordinary transfers for block space, while another spike emerged in late 2024 following the launch of the Runes protocol.

According to the report, Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens and data-timestamping services generate large volumes of low-value transactions, helping explain the sharp rise in microtransactions.

OP_RETURN, an opcode that allows data to be embedded onchain without creating spendable outputs, has climbed to near-record usage levels in 2026. It split the Bitcoin community in 2025 after Bitcoin Core developers removed a long-standing 80-byte relay limit. Critics argued the change would make it easier to use Bitcoin for non-financial data storage.

“The OP_RETURN opcode embeds up to 100,000 bytes of data onchain without creating spendable outputs, making it the standard mechanism for Bitcoin data-layer protocols,” Moreno wrote. 

These protocols generate high volumes of dust-value transactions (as low as 546 satoshis), directly explaining the low-value cohort surge.

The trend has also pushed Bitcoin’s mempool, a holding area for unconfirmed transactions, to roughly 128,000 transactions, its highest transaction count since February 2025.

Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end gold forecast by $500 per ounce, citing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. The revision reflects a broader repricing of “easy money” assumptions—one that could ripple through both traditional safe-haven demand for bullion and the risk appetite that supports cryptocurrencies.

In a note cited by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said their view remains “structurally constructive but tactically cautious,” with downside risk in the near term and upside potential over the medium term. The bank’s new target places gold at $4,900, down from an earlier estimate of $5,400.

Key takeaways

• Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold forecast to $4,900 per ounce, attributing the change to expectations of no Fed cuts in 2026.
• The downgrade assumes potential rate-cut timing shifts to March 2027 and December 2027.
• Delayed interest-rate cuts can pressure both gold and Bitcoin, since lower rates typically support speculative demand.
• Gold is trading close to key technical territory, with Cointelegraph noting it has fallen more than 22% from its January all-time high.

Gold forecast cut as rate-cut timing slips

The revision is rooted in the macro backdrop. Goldman Sachs is assuming that the next Fed rate cuts could be pushed out to March 2027 and December 2027, a change that can matter because gold does not generate yield. When rates remain higher for longer, cash and bonds become relatively more attractive—raising the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Goldman’s analysts framed the outlook as a mix of longer-term optimism and short-term caution. While they still see structural support for gold, they warned that tactical pressure could persist as markets price in fewer near-term liquidity tailwinds.

Why higher-for-longer rates matter to crypto

Cryptocurrency investors often treat interest rates as a key driver of liquidity conditions. The article’s underlying thesis is consistent with how the market has historically behaved: when rates fall, the environment tends to improve for high-duration assets and speculative positioning.

Conversely, a delay in US rate cuts can weigh on digital assets. Lower rates typically reduce the cost of capital and can encourage risk-taking, which often benefits assets such as Bitcoin. If expectations for easing are pushed further out, the same “liquidity improves” narrative weakens.

This transmission mechanism is not limited to crypto sentiment. It also connects to gold’s own behavior: as rates stay elevated, bullion may face headwinds even when broader uncertainty keeps demand for a hedge intact. The result can be a period where both gold and cryptocurrencies soften simultaneously, not because the hedge thesis disappears, but because the opportunity-cost argument becomes harder to ignore.

Market pressure builds: CPI prints and Middle East conflict

Gold’s decline has been unfolding against a difficult demand backdrop. Last week, analysts warned that Bitcoin and gold could face additional pressure this year after US inflation data reinforced the idea that policy easing may be delayed. Cointelegraph pointed to a 4.2% year-on-year increase in the US Consumer Price Index in May, alongside ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

In addition to inflation, geopolitical risk can complicate the rate outlook through energy and risk-premium channels. The article notes that the conflict in the Middle East has also taken a toll on both assets. For traders and investors, that matters because it can keep markets focused on macro variables rather than idiosyncratic catalysts.

Approaching psychologically important levels in gold

The downside focus is reinforced by current positioning in gold. Since its January all-time high of $5,327 per ounce, gold has declined by more than 22%, according to the data referenced by Cointelegraph. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is down 28.3% since January, highlighting that the pressure has not been limited to a single asset class.

Gold is now only about $135 away from testing the $4,000 area—an inflection point not seen since November, according to GoldPrice. While forecasts are long-range and markets can overshoot both directions, the proximity to a major round-number level may increase sensitivity to new macro prints, Fed-related expectations, and any changes in geopolitical risk.

The “easy money” story that helped drive gold to record highs earlier this year may be losing some momentum if investors increasingly believe rates will stay restrictive for longer. As the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises, the market may need a stronger catalyst—such as clearly falling inflation or evidence of improving liquidity—to reverse course.

HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph: “Only when inflation drops, rate cuts become viable, and liquidity improves alongside lower capital costs, will the overall risk appetite truly reverse.”

What to watch next

With the debate now centered on whether rate cuts are truly off the table for 2026—and on how quickly liquidity expectations can recover—markets will likely monitor incoming inflation data and Fed-related messaging closely. Cointelegraph also referenced CME’s FedWatch tool, which shows a high chance of rates staying the same or rising in the remaining months of 2026 compared with the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

The digital credit market suffered one of its sharpest selloffs to date on Thursday,
with Strive Asset Management CEO Matt Cole describing the move as a leverage-driven liquidation rather than a sign of weakening credit fundamentals.

Cole said it was “the most difficult day in the history of Digital Credit,” in a post on X, as Strategy’s preferred equity STRC fell as low as $82.50 before recovering to $89, while Strive’s SATA dropped from its par value fell below $93 before rebounding to $97. Both products are designed to trade close to their $100 par value

“What happened today was a leverage liquidation event, not a deterioration in underlying credit quality,” Cole wrote.

Investors attracted by the sector’s relatively high yields (both products offer over double digit yields) increasingly used leverage to enhance returns, according to Cole. When prices began falling, margin calls triggered forced selling, creating a self-reinforcing decline detached from the underlying creditworthiness of issuers.

“There is an old saying in income markets that the road to hell is paved with carry,” he said.

At the beginning of June, more than 200 crypto companies and industry groups — including Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz and Ripple Labs — sent a letter to Senate Majority and Minority Leaders John Thune and Chuck Schumer, urging them to bring the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill (Clarity Act, H.R. 3633) to a vote without delay, according to Bloomberg Government. The bill has already passed the Senate Banking Committee, and its further progress is being viewed by market participants as a potential step towards a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, which could further support institutional interest in Ripple.

Technical Picture

On the H4 chart, Ripple (XRP/USD) has formed a corrective bullish structure, advancing towards the current resistance area where a local peak was established. Following the pullback, the price moved below the POC zone of the current market profile and is attempting to break the trendline of the upward structure. At present, the price has almost reached the nearest support level around $1.125. Above the market lies a fairly significant resistance zone, consisting of the POC area at $1.179–$1.181 and the lower boundary of the profile at $1.175.

Should the price manage to overcome this barrier, it would face another strong resistance area formed by the upper boundary of the profile at $1.265 and the local high at $1.290, where substantial climactic volume was previously recorded. RSI + MAs shows readings of 39, 47 and 51. The indicator does not yet provide clear signals, suggesting that it is still premature to speak of a confirmed trend breakout.

Key Takeaways

Ripple remains at a point of uncertainty, as the fundamental positive sentiment surrounding the Clarity Act has yet to be confirmed by the technical picture. The market is awaiting the Senate’s decision, which could play a major role in determining the asset’s direction in the near future.

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South Korea has begun considering rules that could allow fintech firms, not just cryptocurrency exchanges, to participate in a new licensing regime for cross-border digital asset transfers scheduled to take effect in December.

Officials from relevant government agencies and industry participants told local media that authorities have started drafting enforcement regulations for amendments to the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act and are reviewing registration requirements for businesses seeking to operate virtual asset transfer services.

The South Korean government promulgated the revised law on June 2 after cabinet approval. The legislation includes a six-month grace period and will take effect in December.

Under the new framework, cross-border transfers involving virtual assets will become a regulated foreign exchange activity. Companies that wish to provide such services must register with the Ministry of Economy and Finance and report overseas transfer transactions through the Bank of Korea’s foreign exchange reporting network.

Authorities have argued that cross-border cryptocurrency transactions previously operated outside the country’s foreign exchange oversight system, creating risks related to illicit foreign exchange activity and money laundering. The revised framework brings those transactions under formal supervision and reporting requirements.

The law requires applicants to complete Virtual Asset Service Provider registration, connect their systems to institutions responsible for relaying foreign exchange and digital asset transaction information, and satisfy additional requirements related to facilities and professional personnel that will be defined by presidential decree.

Current VASP rules limit eligible firms largely to cryptocurrency exchanges and certain custodians registered with the Financial Intelligence Unit under the Financial Services Commission. Industry participants had therefore expected the new regime to be dominated by major domestic exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb.

Fintech firms could gain access to the market

Government officials are also reviewing whether registration should extend beyond exchanges to fintech companies capable of handling cross-border virtual asset transfers.

A Bank of Korea official told local media that authorities do not necessarily need to restrict the business to existing VASPs if other entities can perform transfer services. The official added that businesses seeking to engage in virtual asset transfer activities may still need foreign exchange-related registration under applicable regulations.

The Bank of Korea said it has been holding meetings with industry participants and providing guidance on registration requirements and integration with the foreign exchange reporting system.

Industry attention has increasingly focused on whether the final enforcement decree will open the sector to new entrants beyond traditional cryptocurrency trading platforms.

Many fintech firms have faced obstacles entering the digital asset market because of VASP registration requirements and difficulties securing real-name banking relationships. Industry participants believe a separate licensing framework for virtual asset transfers could create opportunities in blockchain-based remittances and foreign exchange services.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea are continuing consultations with industry participants as they finalize detailed rules ahead of the December launch of the virtual asset transfer licensing regime.

South Korea expands digital asset oversight

The latest regulatory initiative follows recent efforts by South Korean authorities to define how blockchain-based financial products fit within existing financial rules.

Earlier this month, the Ministry of Economy and Finance said tokenized stocks could be taxed under existing securities regulations if the Financial Services Commission formally classifies them as securities. Officials stated that the legal treatment of an asset should depend on its economic characteristics rather than the technology used to issue it.

The Financial Services Commission is expected to release updated token securities guidelines in July as it continues work on a roadmap covering tokenized versions of conventional financial assets, including listed equities.

G7 leaders have renewed calls for joint action against North Korea’s cryptocurrency thefts and cybercrimes. 

The warning came in a geopolitical statement issued after the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France.

The leaders said they were deeply concerned about North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In the same statement, they said member nations needed to “jointly address North Korea’s cryptocurrency thefts and cybercrimes.”

The statement did not name new sanctions, exchange rules, or crypto mixer controls. It also did not set out a timeline for fresh enforcement action against wallets, platforms, or intermediaries linked to stolen funds.

Stolen crypto remains a funding concern

The G7 warning follows years of reports that North Korea-linked hackers use stolen crypto to raise money under heavy sanctions. Western governments and blockchain analytics firms have long tied the activity to Pyongyang’s wider weapons program.

According to Chainalysis, North Korean hackers stole at least $2.02 billion in crypto in 2025. The firm said that pushed the all-time total linked to DPRK actors to at least $6.75 billion.

CrowdStrike also said DPRK-linked actors drove a 51% yearly rise in digital asset theft in 2025. Its 2026 financial services report said North Korea-linked groups used AI-generated identities, fake recruiters, and cloud access campaigns against crypto and financial firms.

Rising attack scale

As previously reported by crypto.news, North Korea-linked Lazarus attacks drained $577 million from Drift Protocol and KelpDAO in April 2026. Those two attacks accounted for most crypto theft reported that month.

Crypto.news also reported that April became the worst month for crypto hacks in 2026, with more than $606 million stolen across 12 incidents in the first 18 days. The Drift and KelpDAO attacks made up nearly all of that loss.

Those cases showed that attackers are moving beyond simple smart contract bugs. The methods included social engineering, compromised devices, bridge weaknesses, and signer manipulation.

North Korea rejects the claims

North Korea has denied U.S. and allied claims over cybercrime. In May, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson called the accusations “absurd slander” and said Washington was spreading false information for political reasons.

The denial has not stopped governments and security firms from naming DPRK-linked groups as major crypto threats. CrowdStrike said North Korean actors use deception at scale, including fake identities and recruiter personas.

The latest G7 statement keeps the issue on the diplomatic agenda, but it leaves open how member states plan to act. It does not say whether governments will tighten exchange screening, pursue new sanctions, or target laundering networks more aggressively.

Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce, lowering its target to $4,900 from $5,400. 

According to Bloomberg, the bank still expects gold to rise from current levels, but it now sees a smaller move than before.

The revision comes as Goldman no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026. Market reports said the bank now expects the next rate cuts to arrive in 2027, after earlier forecasts pointed to easing sooner.

Goldman commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said their view remains “structurally constructive but tactically cautious.” They also pointed to near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk.

Fed pause weighs on gold

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. The central bank said inflation remains above its 2% target and pointed to price pressure linked partly to energy.

That matters for gold because bullion does not pay yield. When interest rates stay higher, bonds and cash can look more attractive than holding gold. A stronger dollar can also make gold less attractive for buyers using other currencies.

Reuters reported that gold headed for a third weekly loss on June 19 as the dollar firmed and hawkish Fed signals weighed on prices. Spot gold fell to its lowest level since June 11 during the session.

Bitcoin faces the same liquidity test

A delayed rate-cut cycle can also weigh on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Lower rates often support digital assets by improving liquidity and reducing the cost of capital.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin fell toward $63,000 after stronger U.S. jobless claims data reinforced the Fed’s hawkish outlook. Traders reduced exposure after the Fed kept rates unchanged and left the door open to tighter policy.

Crypto.news also reported that Bitcoin slipped toward $65,000 ahead of the Fed decision as traders cut risk. Falling oil prices offered some relief, but they did not fully offset concern over rates and inflation.

Traders watch inflation and rate odds

Goldman’s lower gold target does not mean the bank has turned fully bearish on bullion. The $4,900 forecast still points to a price above current levels, but the path now looks more dependent on inflation cooling and Fed policy shifting.

The market is also watching whether geopolitical risk can keep demand for safe-haven assets alive. The war in Iran has added uncertainty, but rate expectations and dollar strength have recently carried more weight in daily trading.

For Bitcoin, the same pressure remains visible. Crypto.news earlier reported that rising bond yields hit crypto-linked equities and pushed Bitcoin lower as rate-hike odds climbed.

Gold and Bitcoin are different assets, but both can react to the same liquidity backdrop. If rate cuts stay delayed, traders may keep favoring cash, short-term bonds, and the dollar. If inflation cools and the Fed turns softer, both markets may find a better base.