Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets adjusted to geopolitical and macro changes.

Key points:

• Bitcoin takes a time-out near week-to-date lows after a broadly hawkish Fed interest-rate meeting.
• US-Iran tensions slowly resurface with the Strait of Hormuz oil route in the firing line.
• A trader suggests that a “black swan” event could still come in this Bitcoin bear market.

BTC price lack upside momentum after hawkish Fed cues

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD locked in a tight trading range on low time frames after dropping to eight-day lows.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Weakness had entered after the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, which sparked a broader risk-asset comedown.

Wednesday’s meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was the first for new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who avoided giving traders dovish signals on future policy.

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said in a statement after a unanimous board decision to keep rates at current levels. 

“The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Warsh’s tone was unusual, as expectations had seen him being accommodating to US President Donald Trump’s insistence on rate cuts. He also cut the FOMC statement length considerably, using drier language than former chair, Jerome Powell.

“We will have far less information going forward,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted in a post on X, noting that Warsh had also “dropped” its forward guidance.

“He even hinted that the ‘dot plot’ could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences. In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.”

Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a near 40% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July.

Bitcoin “black swan” back on the radar

With US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto were alone in digesting the latest developments in the US-Iran war.

Related: Bitcoin tipped for Q3 ‘macro bottom’ near $50K as major liquidity grab looms

Despite signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU), the two sides appeared far from aligned on the future road map, with Iran once more eyeing the newly reopened Strait of Hormuz oil route.

Citing Bloomberg, Kobeissi reported that traffic “cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission.”

“The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term,” it explained on Friday. 

“It appears Iran is preparing for long-term control of Hormuz.”

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

WTI crude oil continued to circle $75 per barrel on the day after hitting its lowest levels since early March.

Amid the lull in risk-asset volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital hinted that Bitcoin bulls’ true test is yet to come.

“There tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets. Lesson there,” he told X followers.

Chris Larsen, the Ripple co-founder and apparent privacy champion who wired San Francisco with thousands of police cameras, has appeared on a leaked guest list for Dialog, surveillance mogul Peter Thiel’s invitation-only network.

Investigative journalist Dave Troy published previously unreported names yesterday.

He tagged Larsen as both a participant and a founding fellow of the organization, which has been described as “Bilderberg (an off-the-record gathering of political and business elite) meets Silicon Valley salon.”

Dialog, meanwhile, positions itself as a hush-hush place where leaders from various fields and ideological backgrounds can come together and build relationships.

As part of this, it runs annual in-person retreats featuring highly secretive sessions, which have included “Money (Does?) Buy Happiness,” “Bring Back Nuclear,” “Navigating WWIII,” and “How’s Your Sex Life?”

Larsen, who branded himself a privacy champion, co-founded the coalition Californians for Privacy Now, served on the board of the Electronic Privacy Information Center, and made his fortune from the cryptographically secure XRP Ledger, now appears on a roster at the highest echelons of the surveillance state.

His name wasn’t generally associated with surveillance until his police camera initiative, the Real-Time Investigation Center that operated out of the same building as Ripple’s former headquarters in San Francisco.

In stark contrast, Thiel is one of the most recognizable leaders in the surveillance state.

He co-founded the citizen monitoring giant Palantir and invested in face-scanner Clearview AI, license plate reader Flock Safety, and movement monitor SafeGraph.

Binance’s faltering European Union Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) license application in Greece has raised questions about whether the bloc’s central bank may have played an informal role in the process, despite not having formal authority over licensing decisions.

Even though MiCA assigns approval of crypto-asset service provider (CASP) licenses to national competent authorities (NCAs), lawyers told Cointelegraph that its wording does not prevent other EU institutions, including the European Central Bank (ECB), from communicating with those regulators during the review process.

“Nothing in the MiCA framework would prevent a third party like the ECB from offering its opinion to that national authority on Binance’s application,” David Lesperance, founder at Lesperance & Associates, told Cointelegraph.

The Big Whale reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources, that ECB President Christine Lagarde had signaled to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis that Binance was not welcome in Europe. The report followed a Reuters story on Tuesday that Greece’s market regulator was set to reject Binance’s MiCA application.

The reports surfaced less than two weeks before the end of MiCA’s transitional period on July 1, a deadline that will determine which crypto firms can continue operating across the EU under its licensing regime.

Who actually decides under MiCA?

Under MiCA, CASP licenses are granted by national regulators, not by EU-level institutions like the ECB. In Binance’s case in Greece, that authority sits with the Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC). The exchange said in January that it had applied for a MiCA license in Greece.

“Our understanding is that the HCMC completed its review of the application and considered it compliant with MiCA requirements. Our understanding is also that the application was subject to review at the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) level,” Binance wrote in a blog post following the Reuters report.

A Binance spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the company believed ESMA intended to advance the application and authorize it at an upcoming board meeting. The company did not respond to an additional request for clarification. The ESMA does not itself authorize CASP licenses under MiCA.

Yuriy Brisov, a lawyer at Digital & Analogue Partners, said the HCMC hasn’t published a decision on Binance’s application.

Related: BitGo courts crypto firms awaiting MiCA approval amid Binance licensing concerns

Brisov said MiCA “contains nothing that stops the ECB from talking to, advising, or sharing concerns” with a national regulator. However, he noted that ECB involvement is explicitly defined only in certain parts of MiCA, particularly rules governing stablecoin issuers, not CASP licenses such as exchanges like Binance.

Source: EUR-Lex

“That’s a concern that MiCA parks in the stablecoin chapter, not in the exchange-license one,” Brisov added.

Stablecoins raise the political stakes

The ECB has consistently voiced concerns about privately issued stablecoins, favoring tokenized financial infrastructure anchored by central bank money instead. According to The Big Whale, Lagarde’s reported intervention was tied to stablecoins.

Lagarde has argued that Europe should prioritize regulated settlement systems rather than rely on private stablecoins, while ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has warned that stablecoins could even reinforce US dollar dominance.

At the same time, market data underscores Binance’s position as the world’s largest stablecoin exchange and the dominant hub for stablecoin liquidity.

Source: Binance

According to CryptoQuant data reported in February, Binance held approximately $47.5 billion in USDT and USDC combined, representing about 65% of total stablecoin reserves across centralized exchanges. That figure was up from roughly $35.9 billion a year earlier.

Related: AllUnity debuts SEKAU, a fully reserved Swedish krona stablecoin

The Big Whale also reported that France could be Binance’s remaining route, though no formal French application had been filed.

ESMA and HCMC did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s requests for comment. The ECB and French regulator Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) declined to comment.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Key Takeaways

• The European Commission may reveal next week that Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services meet the threshold for Digital Markets Act regulation.
• A conclusive determination is anticipated by the close of 2025, although the schedule remains flexible.
• Upon formal classification, both platforms must comply with requirements regarding interoperability, preventing vendor lock-in, and eliminating preferential treatment of proprietary services.
• This investigation stems from a November 2024 EU declaration recognizing both corporations maintain “exceptionally dominant market positions” in cloud infrastructure.
• Multiple significant service disruptions affecting AWS and Azure have intensified regulatory focus on the sector.

The European Union is advancing toward subjecting Microsoft’s Azure and Amazon Web Services to regulatory oversight through its Digital Markets Act legislation. Bloomberg reports the European Commission may unveil its initial assessment within the coming week.

Microsoft Corporation, MSFT

The DMA framework specifically addresses major digital platforms that possess what European authorities characterize as “gatekeeper” market influence. Should Azure and AWS receive official gatekeeper status, they’ll be obligated to adhere to regulations crafted to ensure competitive fairness.

Implications of Gatekeeper Classification

Once designated under the DMA, both cloud platforms must satisfy interoperability standards. Additionally, they’ll encounter limitations designed to eliminate practices that trap customers within their ecosystems and prohibit giving preferential treatment to their own offerings over competitor alternatives.

Regulators expect to finalize their determination before 2025 concludes. Nevertheless, individuals with knowledge of the proceedings indicate the timeline remains subject to adjustment.

The examination began in November 2024 following the European Commission’s acknowledgment that Microsoft and Amazon maintain exceptionally strong market positions within cloud computing. This declaration initiated the official investigation process.

European lawmakers established the DMA to combat monopolistic practices among dominant technology companies operating across the continent. The legislation has previously been enforced against corporations including Apple and Google in different technology sectors.

Service Disruptions Intensify Regulatory Pressure

Regulatory attention on these cloud infrastructure leaders has intensified following several prominent service failures. AWS experienced an extended outage lasting approximately 15 hours that affected major clients including Apple, McDonald’s, and Epic Games. A distinct Azure disruption in October disabled Alaska Airlines’ passenger check-in infrastructure and interrupted legislative operations at the Scottish Parliament.

These technical failures highlighted the extent to which modern digital commerce relies upon a concentrated group of cloud service providers.

Both Microsoft and Amazon declined to provide statements when contacted for this report.

The Commission has yet to release its official assessment publicly. Should the initial conclusions remain unchanged, both organizations will receive an opportunity to submit responses prior to any binding determination.

Cloud computing infrastructure has emerged as a priority surveillance area for EU regulatory bodies, reflecting the sector’s rapid expansion and the extensive number of enterprises dependent upon these platforms.

This probe represents one component of the EU’s comprehensive effort to enforce competition standards across the largest operators in digital infrastructure services.

Prediction market Kalshi is reportedly in early, informal talks with investment banks about an initial public offering (IPO), despite increasing regulatory scrutiny over sports betting contracts on these platforms.

Kalshi is in early-stage talks to go public via an IPO after the platform surpassed $2 billion in annualized revenue, unidentified sources familiar with the matter told news outlet The Informant, according to a Friday report.

A spokesperson for Kalshi declined to comment on the matter.

The reported IPO discussions come as sports betting contracts account for more than half of Kalshi’s weekly notional trading volume, even as those markets face mounting legal challenges from US states.

Sports betting contracts were the leading category on Kalshi, representing about 53% of its weekly notional trading volume, according to Dune data. Sport-related betting was also the leading category on Polymarket, accounting for about 69% of its weekly trading volume.

Kalshi doubled its valuation to reach $22 billion after closing a $1 billion Series F funding round led by Coatue Management, Cointelegraph reported on May 7.

Kalshi weekly notional volume by category. Source: Dune

US regulators are cracking down on sports-related prediction market contracts

Kentucky became the latest state to sue five prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of “operating unlicensed and illegal sports betting and gambling platforms,” Cointelegraph reported on Thursday.

Related: Polymarket users cry foul after Strategy sale market resolves to ‘no’

At least 17 other states have taken prediction market operators to court, attracting the involvement of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

State authorities argue that sports event contracts require state-level licenses, while prediction markets claim their event contracts are swaps regulated under federal commodities law.

The CFTC also argued that event contracts qualify as “swaps” as they are based on binary events. On May 14, the CFTC issued a no-action letter seeking to ease event contract reporting rules.

CFTC no-action letter on prediction markets. Source: CFTC.gov

The CFTC has sued at least five states in a bid to cement its authority over prediction markets, including Wisconsin, New York, Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois.

Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions  

Japan’s Financial Services Agency has suspended part of moomoo Securities’ operations for three months and ordered the brokerage to strengthen its internal controls after regulators found compliance, customer protection, anti-money laundering, and cybersecurity failures.

The Financial Services Agency said on June 19 that moomoo Securities must stop soliciting and accepting applications for new accounts from June 19 through Sept. 18. The regulator also issued a business improvement order that requires the company to clarify management responsibility and submit a plan to prevent similar issues from recurring.

The action follows an investigation by Japan’s Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission, which concluded that the brokerage expanded its business and introduced new services without establishing adequate compliance and risk management systems.

FSA cites NISA misrepresentations and compliance failures

Regulators said moomoo Securities incorrectly presented investment products as eligible for Japan’s Nippon Individual Savings Account program even though the products did not qualify under the tax-advantaged scheme.

The Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission found that between early 2025 and early 2026, the brokerage displayed 78 U.S. exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded notes as NISA-eligible assets on its smartphone trading platform. The commission said retail investors subsequently purchased products that did not qualify for tax-free treatment.

Japanese authorities stated that the firm did not adequately address the issue after discovering the mistake. Regulators said the company failed to proactively contact affected customers or restore annual investment allowances impacted by the transactions.

The watchdog also cited restrictions on domestic stock transfers. The commission said moomoo Securities had declined customer requests to move Japanese stocks to other brokerages since early 2024, limiting clients’ ability to transfer assets outside the platform.

Financial authorities said the company also failed to properly comply with anti-money laundering obligations. The commission found that more than 1,500 rejected or flagged account applicants had not undergone sufficient reviews for suspicious activity because the firm incorrectly believed screening requirements applied only to approved accounts.

Japanese regulators said the brokerage had not conducted required examinations or reporting related to suspicious transactions for an extended period.

Cybersecurity and governance concerns

The Financial Services Agency said cybersecurity controls were also inadequate. Regulators found that management failed to maintain a complete inventory of important transaction systems and did not properly assess vulnerabilities affecting critical infrastructure.

The agency ordered the company to establish clearer accountability among executives and strengthen its internal management framework. Moomoo Securities must submit a detailed business improvement plan to regulators by July 21.

Moomoo Securities is the Japanese subsidiary of Hong Kong-based Futu Holdings, an online brokerage group listed on the Nasdaq. The company has expanded rapidly through its mobile investment platform and has surpassed 2 million app downloads in Japan while promoting low-cost trading in U.S. stocks.

The enforcement action comes as other parts of the Futu group continue expanding overseas. Moomoo Crypto, a separate subsidiary under the Futu umbrella, recently extended its cryptocurrency trading services into Texas, adding to operations in California, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The U.S. platform offers trading in 52 digital assets and supports direct transfers between external crypto wallets and customer accounts.

The case adds to a period of heightened oversight of digital finance activities in Japan. Earlier this year, the Financial Services Agency proposed stricter standards for stablecoin reserve assets and introduced additional supervisory requirements for financial institutions involved in cryptocurrency-related services as part of broader reforms under the country’s updated digital asset framework.