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Election showdown in Georgia

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Locator map of Georgia

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Welcome back. In Tbilisi, which I visited this month, the political mood is ominously tense and polarised. Georgia’s October 26 parliamentary elections are set to be the most consequential for the mountainous south Caucasus country since it emerged in 1991 as an independent state out of the ashes of the Soviet Union.

At first sight, it seems that Georgia faces two possible futures: creeping authoritarianism and alignment with Russia if the ruling Georgian Dream party stays in power, or democracy and a pro-European path if the opposition wins and takes office. However, this black-and-white picture oversimplifies what is an altogether more complicated story. I’m at tony.barber@ft.com.

What is at stake

Since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Georgia has turned into a battleground with two fronts: between Georgian Dream and its opponents, and between each side’s respective Russian and western backers.

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The levels of political polarisation in Tbilisi are so extreme that, in this election campaign, there hasn’t been a single case of government and opposition representatives debating each other on television, radio or other media. Mutual trust is non-existent.

The opposition has painful memories of the fate of the first independent Georgian state of modern times. This led a precarious existence from 1918 to 1921 before being absorbed into the Soviet Union.

Now the opposition fears that, if Georgian Dream retains power, the nation could fall completely under Russian influence and lose its precious but fragile democracy and civic freedoms.

Locator map of Georgia

For the west, such an outcome would be a blow to its interests and credibility. The US and its European allies support Georgia’s independence. The EU has even made the country a candidate for membership, though the process is on hold because of the Georgian Dream government’s democratic backsliding and increasingly pro-Russian sympathies.

Russia’s role in Georgia

For its part, Moscow continues to think of Georgia as part of a rightful sphere of influence in the post-Soviet borderlands that separate Russia from the west. “The Russians have never left Georgia, even mentally,” says one western observer in Tbilisi.

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In a short war in 2008, Russia took de facto control of two Georgian regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where it keeps around 10,000 troops and FSB security service personnel. South Ossetia is scarcely an hour’s drive from Tbilisi.

Bidzina Ivanishvili
Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the Georgian Dream party, at a rally in support of the government’s ‘foreign agent’ law, which it adopted in May this year. Supporters of Georgian democracy fear that its implementation will bring the country closer to Russia © AP

There are no signs of imminent Russian military intervention in Georgia. Still, it is unimaginable that the Kremlin would passively accept an election result that brought a pro-western government to power in Tbilisi.

In this article for the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, Nicholas Lokker and Andrea Kendall-Taylor write:

Georgia now arguably has its most pro-Russian government since its independence in 1991 and, in many cases, [Georgian Dream] is following the Putin playbook in its attempt to weaken Georgia’s democracy. Moscow’s primary goal is to ensure the stability of these pro-Russian forces — in particular, GD founder and de facto leader Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Breakdowns in democracy

However, to portray the election as a straightforward contest between tyranny and freedom, or Russia and the west, is to overlook key features of Georgia’s political trajectory over the past three decades.

In this commentary for the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, Markus Greisz hits the nail on the head. He identifies three long-term issues that have plagued Georgia since independence:

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One issue is the deep political and societal polarisation; another is the tendency of all Georgian governments to turn authoritarian.

A third issue is the seemingly paradoxical simultaneous popular support for both the EU and Georgian Dream, which frustrates western leaders and calls into question whether Georgians actually understand what EU membership would entail.

Since 1991, all governments that started out as protectors of national independence and political freedom have lurched into deeply flawed forms of strongman rule, tainted by corruption and abuse of the rule of law.

This was true of Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Georgia’s first postcommunist president; Eduard Shevardnadze, once admired in the west as Mikhail Gorbachev’s far-sighted Soviet foreign minister; Mikheil Saakashvili, a reformer turned autocrat; and now Ivanishvili.

Weaknesses of the opposition

The legacy of the Saakashvili era is a serious problem for Georgia’s four main opposition parties, as set out in this thread on X by Bidzina Lebanidze, a political scientist.

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Both Georgian Dream and the opposition are “detached from the majority of the population, who feel alienated from [the] political process”, Lebanidze writes.

“During their rule, Saakashvili and [his party] alienated a critical mass of the electorate who refuse to vote for them ever again.”

A similar argument appears in this commentary by Beka Chedia for the Center for European Policy Analysis:

The opposition, in addition to fragmentation, has a problem of identification and identity. Voters find it difficult to be clear which small party is part of which alliance and what their promises to voters are.

In Tbilisi, one non-partisan election-watcher told me: “It’s not sufficient to frame the election as a contest between pro-western and pro-Russian forces. In the regions, outside the capital, voters seem to think it’s a kind of Saakashvili vs Ivanishvili contest.

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“In other words, the image of Georgian politics as an arena for strongmen persists.”

Slim chance of a free election

Public opinion polls for Georgia’s election need to be treated with caution. However, according to one independent expert, Georgian Dream’s private polling indicates it would struggle to win more than 40 per cent of the vote.

The point is, though, that under the system of proportional representation used for this election, Georgian Dream could win just over half the seats in parliament even with 37 to 38 per cent of the vote.

It would help the ruling party if one or more of the opposition parties failed to surpass the 5 per cent threshold required to win seats in the legislature.

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Given Georgian Dream’s influence over the nation’s election commissions, control of the judiciary, vote-buying and intimidation of opposition activists, it is all too easy to see how the party could manipulate the election to secure victory.

Shota Gvineria, a former Georgian ambassador and national security specialist, says:

The regime has systematically used state resources to influence voters by offering benefits such as pardons, early release from prison and amnesty [for fines] in exchange for electoral support …

By placing loyalists in the Central Election Commission and district commissions, manipulating voter lists and tampering with ballots, these tactics have severely undermined the integrity of Georgia’s democratic processes and elections.

Possible outcomes

The list of possible election outcomes ranges from good to nightmarishly bad.

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Least likely is a Polish scenario. A year ago, an illiberal, conservative nationalist government in Warsaw lost elections to an opposition led by former premier Donald Tusk. Despite some difficulties, Tusk and his allies were able to take office peacefully.

Such an outcome strikes me as improbable in Georgia. The ruling party shows no inclination to give up power, controls almost all levers of state authority and has the means to fix the election.

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili meets Polish President Andrzej Duda
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili meets Polish President Andrzej Duda at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, October 1 2024 © Piotr Nowak/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

At the opposite end of the spectrum is a Belarusian scenario. In 2020, mass protests broke out after Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator in Minsk, claimed victory in what were blatantly fraudulent presidential elections.

Lukashenko’s regime cracked down on the demonstrators, and Belarus today is as deprived of freedom as Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

A third possibility is a Serbian scenario. Elections in Serbia routinely produce victories for President Aleksandar Vučić and his ruling party. They aren’t completely free and fair, but Vučić receives little more than a rap on the knuckles from the west, which perceives some value in maintaining a working relationship with Serbia.

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Risk of instability or violence

If Georgian Dream wins the election fraudulently, or loses but refuses to concede defeat, anti-government street protests are likely. The history of postcommunist Georgia offers some clues to what then might or might not transpire.

In 2003, public anger at corruption and a fixed election triggered demonstrations that toppled Shevardnadze, Georgia’s then president.

Former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze
Former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze appealing to the public on TV from his office in Tbilisi in November 2003, ahead of a planned mass opposition protest that called for his resignation © Reuters

By stepping down, Shevardnadze ensured the Rose Revolution, as these events came to be known, was mostly peaceful. Could the same thing happen after October 26? I am doubtful. By temperament and motivation (he is a reclusive billionaire who made his fortune in Russia), Ivanishvili is quite different to Shevardnadze. The Kremlin openly supports him.

Ideally, the US and European governments would step in and play a mediating role in the event of a contested election result and power struggle. They did this during Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan revolution.

But Ukraine’s new government and its western friends paid a heavy price for that change of power — Russia’s annexation of Crimea and fomentation of separatist rebellions in Donbas, followed by the 2022 invasion.

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The future of Georgia is very much in the balance.

More on this topic

Georgia’s Anaklia deep seaport project may open new routes, but at what cost? An analysis by Tymon Pastucha and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz for the Polish Institute of International Affairs

Tony’s picks of the week

  • Israel’s war in Lebanon may be longer and more grinding than the limited operation that was initially announced, the FT’s James Shotter, Neri Zilber and Andrew England report

  • In his newly published memoirs, Robert Bourgi, a French-Lebanese wheeler-dealer, has spilled the beans about how he helped leaders of former French colonies in Africa to subsidise presidential election candidates in France, the BBC’s Hugh Schofield reports

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Freebies and turmoil tarnish first 100 days of Starmer’s premiership

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Keir Starmer enters 10 Downing Street on July 5

Sir Keir Starmer should on Saturday be celebrating a major milestone: he will have been UK prime minister for 100 days.

The Labour party, out of power for 14 years, triumphed in July’s election and routed the Conservatives in a once-in-a-generation political turnaround.

Yet Starmer has since seen his poll ratings plunge, is immersed in an unlikely “freebies” scandal, and has had to sack his own chief of staff to reset a misfiring Downing Street operation.

The mood at last month’s Labour conference in Liverpool was pensive rather than triumphant. 

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But the prime minister remains convinced voters will forget these early teething problems if he manages to reform public services, achieve swift economic growth, and boost housebuilding and green energy. “He’s got over four years to get things right,” said one Tory ex-cabinet minister. 

Keir Starmer enters 10 Downing Street on July 5
Starmer enters 10 Downing Street on July 5 © Stefan Rousseau/PA

Starmer, a former director of public prosecutions, was always expected to be more technocrat than populist national leader.

However, it is his managerial skills and his grip on the centre of government that have been called into question, while his puritan image has been dented by revelations of free clothing, accommodation and football matches.

Ministers believe they have a good story to tell, if they can cut through to the general public. They say Starmer has made rapid strides on areas including green energy, planning reform, rail nationalisation and employment reforms. 

Elsewhere, there is less certainty. How exactly will Labour improve household finances? How will it relieve the overwhelmed National Health Service? 

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More clarity should emerge — belatedly — on Budget day on October 30, in which chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to confront the administration’s severe fiscal challenges.

Labour optimists see this as a chance for the government to “reset the narrative” and enter a new delivery phase. 

Reeves is poised to tweak her fiscal rules, and introduce various wealth taxes that could allow her to pledge an increase in long-term capital spending and avoid a new bout of “austerity” in public services. But neither of those moves comes without political risk. 

Back in July Reeves claimed to have found a £22bn “black hole” in the public finances — a sum rejected by the Tories. As part of an attempt to address this, she slashed winter fuel payments for pensioners, prompting a backlash among Labour MPs and beyond. 

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Rachel Reeves in the Commons
Labour optimists see Rachel Reeves’s October 30 Budget as a chance for the government to ‘reset the narrative’ and enter a new delivery phase © House of Commons

On Monday Starmer and Reeves will preside over an “investment summit” in London’s medieval Guildhall, telling global investors that Britain is “open for business” after a decade of political chaos and outlining a new industrial strategy. 

The timing of the gathering — two weeks before the Budget — is not ideal. 

Ministers are braced for endless questions about which taxes will rise. One Treasury figure said executives would be “happy” on Budget day: many will wait to see the small print. 

The public, for now, seem largely oblivious to Starmer’s five central “missions”: economic growth, clean energy, tackling crime, improving the NHS and removing “barriers to opportunity”. 

Inside government, officials say he is less of a “micromanager” than his predecessor Rishi Sunak — but some have raised questions about his grip on the tiller. 

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“People expected him to be more of a chief executive and less of a chair, but at the moment he seems rather more of the latter — when frankly he needs to be more of the former,” said Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London. “What seems to be lacking is an overall framework for what the Labour government is doing. What’s the vision behind it?”

In some areas Starmer has won support from the public, according to research from polling group YouGov: new pay deals with striking doctors, suspending some arms sales to Israel, lifting the ban on onshore wind farms and maintaining the two-child cap on welfare benefits despite MPs’ unease. 

Winter fuel protest
Anger at winter fuel cuts spread beyond parliament © Stephen Chung/Alamy
Prisoner releases
Prisoner releases were an attempt to ease strain on overcrowded prison capacity © Jeff More/PA

By contrast the prime minister has angered voters on two fronts with the winter fuel payments cuts and the early release of some prisoners, YouGov found.

Asked about the government’s general performance, Labour voters seem underwhelmed, with 47 per cent saying they “feel let down so far”.

This will disappoint a government that had hit the ground running. July saw a King’s Speech packed with legislation ranging from rail nationalisation to employment reforms. The following month Starmer’s response to the far-right riots, condemning the racism and accelerating court hearings, was praised.

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But his puritan image has been dented by a freebies scandal, while tumult inside Number 10 has coloured perceptions of the new regime.

Starmer took £32,000 of free clothing and £20,000 of accommodation from Lord Waheed Alli, a Labour peer and entrepreneur who also showered freebies over several other senior ministers. The premier has taken a legalistic approach to the scandal, repeatedly saying he never broke any rules. But the public seem unimpressed. 

Sir Keir Starmer and his wife attend a Taylor Swift concert at Wembley Stadium in June
Starmer and his wife attend a Taylor Swift concert at Wembley Stadium in June © Keir Starmer/X

Meanwhile, a power struggle within Downing Street led to the shock departure last weekend of Sue Gray, who as chief of staff was Starmer’s closest aide.

She was hired in 2023 to prepare Labour for government; her demotion less than 100 days after the general election was the clearest sign yet that something had gone badly wrong.

Some Whitehall officials who had worked with Gray were unsurprised. “Sue was great in many ways but she had never run anything,” said one ex-permanent secretary. 

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Gray had never been in charge of a department yet now she was seen as the linchpin of Starmer’s entire operation, from vetting ministerial appointments to liaising with English city mayors and clearing policies. Sitting outside Starmer’s study, she also controlled access to the prime minister.

The signs of dysfunction were manifest, not least the snail’s pace at which ministerial appointments were made after the July 4 election: junior appointments dragged for days, while investment minister Poppy Gustafsson was only appointed this week.

Likewise no one could clarify whether Gray had been in charge of “the grid” — the crucial programme of announcements that set the rhythm of government.

Sue Gray
Sue Gray left Number 10 to be replaced by Morgan McSweeney as chief of staff © Leon Neal/AFP via Getty Images

Morgan McSweeney, the new chief of staff, has told colleagues that his first priority is to “make Number 10 boring again”, although his restless energy and briefings that he favours a “radical shake-up” suggest otherwise.

Although the start of the new government has been rocky, and opinion polls have narrowed, Starmer still has a strong hand to play. With the Conservative party reduced to a rump in July’s election, Labour remains virtually unchallenged in the House of Commons. 

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Tom Baldwin, author of Keir Starmer, The Biography, said the prime minister had time to turn things around. 

“The most eye-catching features of this government’s first 100 days are mistakes which too often have been unnecessary, unforced and about relatively trivial matters,” he said. 

“But Starmer has a certain relentlessness and resilience which can — maybe should — mean that he’s a two-term prime minister.”

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Deaths soar in Gaza refugee camp after Israel encircles Jabalia

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Israeli strikes have killed more than 150 Palestinians in an operation focusing on the Jabalia refugee camp this week, with thousands more trapped in the ruins of the settlement in northern Gaza after a year of war with Hamas.

The camp has been the scene of several pitched battles between Israeli forces and Hamas, as the militant group attempts to regroup in areas from which the Israel Defense Forces had retreated.

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This week’s offensive started with the encirclement of Jabalia, leaving a single street for its civilians to exit from. The IDF said it had “eliminated” at least 50 Hamas fighters this week, including several it said had taken part in the October 7 cross-border raid that sparked the conflict. Local health officials said at least 150 people had been killed in and around Jabalia in the past week.

“It’s more than scary — the situation is critical,” said Mustafa, who managed to escape from Jabalia before the offensive began. “It seems that the Jabalia camp will be deleted from Gaza’s geography.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to endorse a political solution for Gaza, leaving the military fighting an intermittent insurgency as international aid groups struggle to provide a population of nearly 2.3mn civilians with enough food, medicine and shelter to survive.

Some 300,000 civilians, the UN and others said, are living in the ruins of their neighbourhoods and homes in northern Gaza, separated from the rest of the population by an Israeli military corridor that divides the besieged enclave into two sectors.

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In the past few days, the IDF has demanded that thousands of civilians evacuate the northern sector and run a gauntlet of checkpoints to reach al-Mawasi, a fetid and crowded “humanitarian zone” alongside the Mediterranean. Many are too scared by the violence outside their homes to flee.

Ibrahim al-Kharabishy, a lawyer and the father of four children including a baby, said they constantly hear explosions from artillery and warplanes. His family is safer indoors, rather than out on the streets, where Palestinian looters add to the risk from the military’s operation.

“[The army] called us this morning and ordered us to evacuate, but we are staying at home because it is the only refuge we have left,” he told the Financial Times over the phone. “I am not being obstinate with the army, but we are unable to go. We need a safe place to go to.”

All they have at home is flour, and he said Israel was using hunger to “empty out the north.” Israel has denied the accusation repeatedly.

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Food has all but run out in northern Gaza, the World Food Programme said, since the main crossings closed on October 1.

“WFP distributed its last remaining food stocks in northern Gaza to partners and kitchens sheltering newly displaced families — but these are barely enough to last two weeks,” WFP said.

At least 42,000 Palestinians, local health officials estimate, have been killed since the war began on October 7 when Hamas killed 1,200 people within Israel, the Israeli government said, and took 250 or so hostage. More than 100 hostages are still being held.

The renewed fighting in the Jabalia camp has been overshadowed by Israel’s offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon, where nearly a quarter of the country’s territory is under an evacuation order from the Israeli military, the UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights estimates.

On Saturday, Israel warned 20 more Lebanese villages that they too could face harm as the IDF’s ground invasion spread.

According to an FT count, since it began its ground invasion to combat Hizbollah on October 1, Israel has warned about 140 communities in south Lebanon to flee their homes. The IDF has commanded residents to move north of the Awali river, which runs at least 80km north of the southern tip of Lebanon.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, arrived in Beirut on Saturday as fighting flared across the southern Lebanese-northern Israeli border. Hizbollah said it had targeted an explosives factory south of Haifa as well as an Israeli bulldozer in the south Lebanese village of Ramia.

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Two drones from Lebanon made it as far south as Herzliya, a prosperous Tel Aviv suburb, before one was shot down and the other hit a nursing home. No casualties were reported.

A soldier in the UN international peacekeeping mission Unifil, which patrols the Lebanese-Israeli border, was shot and hospitalised on Friday night. Unifil said that the peacekeeper had been hit by gunfire that came from fighting near its headquarters in Naqoura, southern Lebanon. The UN force said it did not know which side fired the bullet. 

Hours earlier, two Unifil peacekeepers were hurt by unattributed explosions near an observation tower. Israel’s military said it was looking into the incidents, and accused Hizbollah of operating near Unifil positions. 

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Three reasons why you could be asked to pay back Winter Fuel Payment by DWP – and how to avoid falling foul of rules

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Three reasons why you could be asked to pay back Winter Fuel Payment by DWP - and how to avoid falling foul of rules

HOUSEHOLDS eligible for the Winter Fuel Payment may have to pay some or all of it back for three particular reasons.

The up to £300 payment is being made to those on certain benefits this winter to cover the extra cost of energy over the colder months.

The Winter Fuel Payment is worth up to £300 this financial year

1

The Winter Fuel Payment is worth up to £300 this financial yearCredit: Getty

It was previously available to all state pensioners but the Government has now made the annual payment means-tested.

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The changes by Chancellor Rachel Reeves mean that around 10million aged 66 or over will no longer receive the benefit.

But there may be other circumstances where you receive the Winter Fuel Payment this financial year and have to repay some or all of it back to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).

The Government’s guidance states that you have to pay it back if you did not report a change of circumstances straight away.

For example, if you moved address or stopped receiving a benefit that qualified you for the payment.

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You could also be docked the payment if you gave the wrong information out in your application such as the incorrect age.

Or, you may have to pay it back if you were overpaid by the DWP by mistake.

It’s crucial that you tell the DWP of any changes in your personal circumstances and make sure you enter your personal details correctly as it can impact your eligibility for the Winter Fuel Payment.

You can do this by contacting the Winter Fuel Payment Centre on 0800 731 0160 or +44 (0)191 218 7777 if you’re outside the UK.

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Who is eligible for the Winter Fuel Payment?

It is worth taking note of the eligibility criteria for this year’s Winter Fuel Payment as if a change in circumstances means you fall outside of it, you will need to contact the Winter Fuel Payment Centre.

Martin Lewis slams cabinet minister over Winter Fuel Payments

You qualify for a Winter Fuel Payment for Winter 24/25 if you were born before September 23, 1958.

If you live alone and were born between September 23, 1944, and September 22, 1958 you will get £200.

You will receive £300 if you were born before September 23, 1944.

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If you and your partner jointly claim any of the benefits, one of you will get a payment of either:

  • £200 if one or both of you were born between September 23 1944 and September 22 1958
  • £300 if one or both of you were born before September 23 1944

You must also live in England or Wales and get one of the following:

  • Pension Credit
  • Universal Credit
  • income-related Employment and Support Allowance (ESA)
  • income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA)
  • Income Support
  • Child Tax Credit
  • Working Tax Credit

You’ll also need to have been getting a benefit during the qualifying week of September 16 to 22, 2024.

In some circumstances, you might be eligible for the Winter Fuel Payment if you live abroad, for example if you live in:

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • Finland
  • Germany
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Latvia
  • Liechtenstein
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland

You aren’t eligible for the Winter Fuel Payment if you live in Scotland or have been in hospital getting free treatment for more than a year.

You also don’t qualify if were in prison for the whole of the week of September 16 to 22, 2024, or you were living in a care home for the from June 24 to September 22, 2024.

You will qualify for a Winter Fuel Payment if you have lived in a care home for less than 13 weeks including the week of September 16 to 22, 2024, though.

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Hundreds of thousands of households are not claiming Pension Credit which could qualify them for this year’s Winter Fuel Payment.

You can use this benefits checker made in partnership with poverty charity Turn2Us to see if you’re eligible.

Are you missing out on benefits?

YOU can use a benefits calculator to help check that you are not missing out on money you are entitled to

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Charity Turn2Us’ benefits calculator works out what you could get.

Entitledto’s free calculator determines whether you qualify for various benefits, tax credit and Universal Credit.

MoneySavingExpert.com and charity StepChange both have benefits tools powered by Entitledto’s data.

You can use Policy in Practice’s calculator to determine which benefits you could receive and how much cash you’ll have left over each month after paying for housing costs.

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Your exact entitlement will only be clear when you make a claim, but calculators can indicate what you might be eligible for.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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Nike tries to get back in the race as sneaker sales gather pace

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A pair of Nike Vaporfly

As Nike tries to lift itself out of a sales slump with a new chief executive on Monday, the rest of the athletic footwear industry is booming.

Retailers are expanding their reliance on brands beyond the famed swoosh.

Foot Locker, one of the largest global sneaker retailers, posted a return to comparable store sales growth in its most recent quarter, due in part to the chain diversifying its assortment of products to brands beyond Nike.

Designer Brands Inc, which operates DSW shoe stores across North America, is also expanding its sneaker offerings, while Fleet Feet, a US-based chain of running speciality stores, said it “has never seen product this strong” from trainer brands.

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Designer Brands chief executive Doug Howe told investors last month the company is in the midst of a “pivot” to offering more athletic footwear — up to 42 per cent of its assortment this year, from 32 per cent in 2017. While overall sales at US DSW stores fell 3 per cent in the most recent quarter, sales of athletic footwear, including Nike, rose 16 per cent.

A pair of Nike Vaporfly
The release of Nike’s Vaporfly in 2017 kicked off an innovation arms race in trainers © The Washington Post via Getty Images

The positive momentum at sneaker chains across consumer categories — from fashion, to family, to speciality — underscores the optimism for athletic footwear writ large, if not for Nike. Earlier this month, the swoosh withdrew its financial guidance for the year and reported a 10 per cent drop in sales over the three-month period ended in August.

“Footwear is interesting because it can be recession-proof in a sense,” said Matt Priest, chief executive of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a US trade association.

Even in adverse economic conditions with interest rates high, albeit coming down, “people still buy shoes in lieu of a new car or a washing machine”, he said.

Global retail sales of sports footwear totalled $165bn in 2023, up 23 per cent from 2018, according to Euromonitor. Growth occurred in every geographic region, led by Latin America, up 38 per cent, while Asia Pacific and North America remained the top two largest markets.

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In the US, where 99 per cent of footwear is imported, sneakers are on the rise. Imports of athletic shoes are up more than 10 per cent year over year through August, Priest said, compared to a rise of just 1 per cent for all footwear.

Woman’s legs seen crossing a road
Sneakers have become increasingly popular as standards of dress have become more casual © Edward Berthelot/Getty Images

Industry experts and retailers say the segment is performing well in part because of the broader “casualisation” of society, in which trainers are increasingly acceptable footwear in the workplace and for going out. 

“Once you discover that you can wear sneakers for almost everything, you hardly ever go back to heels”, Foot Locker chief executive Mary Dillon said last month. 

The fortunes of Foot Locker were once so closely tied to Nike that both companies cited one another for years in regulatory filings as their sole significant customer.

The proportion of Foot Locker’s inventory from Nike and its subsidiary Jordan brand peaked at 75 per cent in 2020, falling to 65 per cent last year.

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At an investor conference last month, Dillon said Nike would “always” be an important partner, but emphasised the chain’s expanded offering of other brands, including Hoka, New Balance and On.

“Customers are voting. People want choice in this category. It’s very clear. They’re buying multiple brands and . . . using them for lots of different occasions,” Dillon said.

Some of the increased competitiveness in athletic footwear can be attributed to factors precipitated by Nike.

In 2017, the industry leader announced an aggressive plan to shift its sales strategy towards a direct-to-consumer model, moving away from what it called “mediocre retail”. This opened up shelf space at chains like Foot Locker for other brands.

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People outside a branch of Foot Locker
Foot Locker has reported a return to sales growth © Zuma Press/Alamy

That same year, Nike debuted its transformational Vaporfly 4% running shoe with improved foam and a carbon fibre plate in the sole, setting off an innovation arms race across the industry.

But Nike executives acknowledged the company pushed too hard into direct and online sales and failed to catch up with consumers who returned to shopping in stores as pandemic lockdowns eased. It is now working to win back retail partners.

“Our teams have been closely engaging with our partners since we acknowledged some of the mis-steps related to over-centring on direct [sales]”, said Matthew Friend, Nike’s chief financial officer, this month.

Foot Locker has said it expects a “return to growth” with Nike this year. Victor Ornelas, senior director of vendor management at Fleet Feet, a speciality chain for runners with 280 locations across the US, told the FT that “we have experienced an increase in energy and connections” from Nike beginning this year.

To be sure, there are weak spots in the global athletic shoe marketplace. UK athletic shoe chain JD Sports posted falling profits for the half-year through August, in large part due to operational changes and the closure of a distribution centre. 

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Still, brands other than Nike have stepped up. At Foot Locker’s flagship store in New York City, autumn displays this month featured Timberland boots and Ugg slides, as well as prominent showcases for New Balance and Hoka.

Ornelas of Fleet Feet said brands are distinguishing themselves with footwear that can be used for various purposes — fusing the latest technology of performance foam soles, useful for running, with an upper part of the shoe in neutral colours that can be worn with a range of outfits.

“We are heavy into booking season right now for [shoes that will arrive in spring] 2025, and we’ve never seen product this strong,” said Ornelas.

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Spanish hotel that feels ‘more like Thailand’ is 10 minutes from Benidorm – with adult-only pools and Asian-style spa

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A hotel in Spain makes guests feel more like they are "in Thailand"

A HOTEL resort in Spain is said to be more like Thailand – despite being right by Benidorm.

Asia Gardens Hotel & Thai Spa has the “serenity, peace and quiet of South-East Asia” according to the website.

A hotel in Spain makes guests feel more like they are "in Thailand"

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A hotel in Spain makes guests feel more like they are “in Thailand”Credit: Jet2holidays
Asia Gardens Hotel & Thai Spa is 10 minutes from Benidorm

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Asia Gardens Hotel & Thai Spa is 10 minutes from BenidormCredit: wellnessholidayboutique
It is surrounded by jungle and Asian gardens

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It is surrounded by jungle and Asian gardensCredit: Jet2holidays

It was named Spain‘s Leading Hotel in the this year’s Wold Travel Awards.

A number of famous celebrities have stayed too, including Wayne Rooney and Bruce Willis.

Surrounded by 370,000sqm of pine forest, the hotel itself has its own lush tropical gardens with 3,000 Asian species.

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This includes a 200-year-old bonsai tree as well as bonsai and palm trees.

And on-site are seven swimming pool surrounded by the jungle, with four heated.

The adult-only Faces of Angkor pool is a Balinese style pool, heated and surrounded by huge stone statues.

Thailand is also known for its massages – and the hotel has its own Thai spa onsite.

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There are nine restaurants too, ranging from Asia cuisine at Koh Samui as well as a range of Mediterranean options.

Taking your entire family? There is a kids play area, a Teens Club and a mini-dinner service for young guests, as well as a nanny service.

Rooms start from around £200 a night, or you can book a package holiday.

The Thailand bucket list jungle experience where you can feed baby elephants

TUI has seven-night stays for as little as £1,077pp, including return flights.

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Or book with Loveholidays for seven night stays from £819pp, with return flights.

Each of the rooms could with king-size beds, as well as huge TVs complimentary WiFi and amenity kids.

The hotel is only open until the end of the month before it closes for the season, although it will reopen again by May 2025.

Its easy to get to, as its around 40 minutes from Alicante Airport, or 24 minutes from the train station.

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Another famous guest, Joan Collins, said: “Elegant and beautiful, the service and food GREAT!”

There are a range of pools to choose from, including heated ones and adult-only ones

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There are a range of pools to choose from, including heated ones and adult-only onesCredit: Jet2holidays
The zen spa is a must-visit too, with authentic massages

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The zen spa is a must-visit too, with authentic massagesCredit: Jet2holidays

Football player Zinedine Zidane said: “Thank you very much for your hospitality and friendliness. A beautiful place in Spain!”

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Other guests have raved about it on Tripadvisor.

One wrote: “We really liked it, feeling like we were vacationing in Asia.”

A second agreed: “A taste of heaven amongst beautiful gardens a feeling of being whisked away to Thailand without the long haul flight.

“You’d think you were in Thailand not Benidorm.”

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TUI has recently launched new hotels in Thailand, Vietnam and China.

What is it like to visit Thailand?

The Sun’s Travel Reporter Hope Brotherton recently revealed what a holiday to Phuket is like.

“Earlier this year, I visited Phuket after boarding a direct flight from London Gatwick with TUI – the only airline to offer direct flights between the UK and the Thai holiday destination.

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“When I touched down in Phuket, I was immediately greeted by the vibrancy of the island and my senses were somewhat overwhelmed by the sounds and sights.

“The mountainous island is framed by magnificent beaches like Rawai Beach, Patong Beach, Karon Beach, Kamala Beach, Kata Yai Beach, Kata Noi Beach and Mai Khao Beach.

“Phuket Town itself is animated by early-morning markets and tuk tuks.

“Beers are cheap too with pints costing £2.13.”

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A hidden bay in eastern Europe is said to be just like Thailand too.

We’ve also found some Maldives-style rooms that are actually at a hotel resort in Greece.

Stays can be found for less than £1000pp, including return flights

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Stays can be found for less than £1000pp, including return flightsCredit: Jet2holidays

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Venezuela cancels passports of dozens of activists and journalists

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Protesters against Nicolás Maduro

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Venezuela has cancelled the passports of dozens of journalists and activists since Nicolás Maduro claimed a re-election victory, part of what rights groups say is an intensifying campaign of repression against the authoritarian president’s opponents.

At least 40 people — mostly journalists and human rights activists — have had their passports annulled without explanation, according to Caracas-based rights group Laboratorio de Paz, which warns that the number is likely to be much higher due to Venezuelans’ fear of reporting cases.

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Others have had their passports confiscated by authorities while attempting to board flights from the country’s main airport.

“It was terrifying,” said one rights activist, whose passport was taken by authorities at the airport last week without explanation. He declined to give his name for fear of reprisals. “I knew it was a risk that I could have my passport taken or be jailed when I got to the airport, and they went with the former.”

Carla, a journalist who chose not to give her surname, discovered while abroad that her passport had been cancelled.

“I asked myself, ‘now where do I come from,’” said Carla, who is not sure whether she will try to return home.

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The cancellation of passports comes amid a wider campaign of repression in response to anti-government protests that broke out following an election verdict that has not been recognised by the Organization of American States, the US and the EU.

Protesters against Nicolás Maduro
State repression has grown in response to protests after Nicolás Maduro claimed victory in July’s presidential election © Ezequiel Becerra/AFP/Getty Images

Maduro was declared the victor of the July 28 election by the government-controlled National Electoral Council, with 51 per cent of the vote to the main opposition candidate Edmundo González’s 43 per cent. The supreme court, another organ under Maduro’s sway, ratified the result. But the opposition released polling station tally sheets verified by independent observers showing that González won by a two-to-one margin.

The US congratulated González on winning the most votes, though has stopped short of recognising him as president-elect. Amid fears of his imminent arrest, González fled Venezuela for Spain last month.

“Unlike murder or torture, which have a higher political cost, the government has found that passport cancellation is an effective way to neutralise and muffle critical voices with minimal effort,” said Rafael Uzcátegui, co-director of Laboratorio de Paz.

Since protests broke out against Maduro’s declaration of victory, more than 2,000 people have been arrested and at least 24 people killed during large-scale protests. Maduro has also moved to stifle online dissent, blocking access to X amid a spat with its billionaire owner Elon Musk, and encouraging citizens to uninstall the widely used messaging platform WhatsApp.

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Since assuming power following the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013, Maduro has overseen deepening repression amid an economic collapse that saw output contract by three-quarters in the eight years up to 2021, while more than 7mn Venezuelans have left the country.

Some migrants who want to go back to Venezuela now face difficulties in making the return. Since last month, any Venezuelan abroad with an expired passport must obtain a new passport costing about $200 or a travel document from a consulate or embassy at least 72 hours before travelling to Venezuela. But some countries that receive migrants, including the US, Peru and Panama, do not host Venezuelan diplomatic missions that can issue the documents.

Venezuelans can travel within the Mercosur region — the trade bloc suspended Caracas in 2016 — with just a national identity card, though only via direct flights to and from Venezuela. Bolivia, which recognised Maduro’s victory, is the only country in the Latin America grouping with direct flights to Caracas.

One activist, who declined to give their name, said their passport had appeared cancelled when they checked the government’s online registry, only for it to later appear valid. They decided to travel to and from Venezuela by crossing the porous western border into Colombia, rather than through an official checkpoint.

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“It’s a policy to instigate fear,” they said. “So I preferred to avoid the airport and cross by land, and I did the same to get back.”

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