Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains locked in a persistent bear market. The Michael Saylor-led company has struggled to regain momentum as its stock mirrors Bitcoin’s decline.

As Bitcoin corrects, Strategy stock follows, reinforcing volatility and heightening sensitivity to digital asset sentiment shifts.

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MSTR Is Breaking Out

About a week ago, the Chaikin Money Flow formed a bullish divergence against price. While MSTR recorded a lower low, CMF posted a higher reading. This divergence signaled improving capital inflows despite falling prices, suggesting selective accumulation beneath the surface.

The short-term impact was visible as the MSTR price rebounded roughly 20% across Friday and Monday trading sessions. However, the broader technical structure remains fragile. Macro indicators still lean bearish, and sustained upside depends on stronger conviction returning to Bitcoin markets.

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Can The Oversold Stock Mirror 2022 Recovery?

The Relative Strength Index has hovered near oversold territory since November 2025. A brief improvement appeared in January before RSI fell below 30.0 again last week. An RSI below 30 often signals oversold conditions, which historically precede technical rebounds.

A similar setup occurred in May 2022. At that time, MSTR rebounded 123% after entering oversold territory. That rally unfolded despite Bitcoin experiencing uneven momentum. Investors treated Strategy as a distinct equity with its own growth narrative.

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This cycle differs materially. Strategy’s corporate identity is now deeply connected to its Bitcoin holdings strategy. Demand for MSTR shares increasingly reflects sentiment toward Bitcoin accumulation.

MSTR Follows Bitcoin

In prior downturns, the MSTR price occasionally moved independently of Bitcoin. During earlier oversold phases, the stock rallied even as Bitcoin corrected. That divergence highlighted investor confidence in Strategy’s enterprise software operations and balance sheet flexibility.

Today, correlation metrics show stronger alignment between MSTR and Bitcoin price action. Since November 2025, Bitcoin’s steady decline has exerted downward pressure on Strategy shares. Market participants increasingly treat the stock as a Bitcoin-linked instrument rather than a standalone tech equity.

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As a result, Strategy’s outlook now depends heavily on Bitcoin’s next move. If Bitcoin stabilizes or enters accumulation, MSTR may follow. Conversely, extended crypto weakness could prolong the bear phase in Strategy stock despite internal accumulation policies.

Saylor Remains Bullish

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, is unbothered by the decline in MSTR’s value. During an interview with CNBC, Saylor highlighted that the company is far from affected by BTC’s decline. He stated that volatility is the bug, but volatility is also the feature. He further strengthened the company’s outlook of accumulation over selling.

“We will not be selling. Instead, I believe we will be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever,” Saylor stated.

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Thus, Strategy will likely continue buying BTC, and MSTR will continue following its trajectory until the market changes drastically for one of them.

MSTR Price Targets Identified

MSTR price trades near $133, hovering around the $137 region aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This technical zone acts as a critical inflection point. Future direction will likely depend on Bitcoin price stability and broader crypto market sentiment.

If bearish conditions persist, recent gains could fade quickly. A drop below $122, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, may expose $104, the February low. Should selling intensify further, the next structural support lies near $83.

On the upside, the immediate recovery target sits near $157. Reclaiming that level would offset recent losses and improve technical structure. If Saylor maintains Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation stance, sustained commitment could attract renewed investor interest and support a stronger rebound in MSTR shares.

Analyst flags XRP monthly support at $0.85–$0.95 as potential entry for “smart money” amid recent 34% monthly decline.

XRP is trading at $1.37, down nearly 15% over the past week and 33% in the last 30 days, as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the Ripple token.

However, a widely followed analyst says the monthly chart is showing a long-term ascending channel with support at $0.85–$0.95, a zone he believes could mark the entry point for institutional capital that has yet to return to the market.

Monthly Structure Shows Nine-Year Support Zone

The technical case for a potential reversal rests entirely on the monthly timeframe, according to analyst Arthur, who posted a detailed thread on X early Wednesday. His chart tracks XRP from March 2017 to the present, with each candlestick representing a full month of trading. The lower boundary of an ascending channel, tested repeatedly over nine years, now sits at $0.85–$0.95, which is roughly 30% below current prices.

“This is a monthly structural read, backed by macro and long-term volume behavior,” Arthur wrote. “The bottom of the monthly channel may very well represent the area where ‘smart money’ returns.”

He pointed to volume as the missing ingredient. The largest volume spike in XRP history occurred between November 2020 and April 2021. According to him, the 2024 rally, which pushed XRP above $2, saw four times less volume.

“The real money hasn’t returned yet,” he said. “What we saw in 2024 was whales and some funds. Not the large institutional flow that changes a market forever.”

Derivatives data supports the view that speculative positioning has cooled, with analysis from Arab Chain showing that in the last 30 days, XRP futures open interest dropped by about 1.8 billion XRP on Bybit and 1.6 billion on Binance. Kraken also posted a decline of about 1.5 billion XRP.

The contraction suggests traders are closing leveraged positions rather than building new ones,  a behavior typically seen during transitional phases before a new trend emerges.

Macro Backdrop Has Shifted

The analyst’s optimism is not based on chart patterns alone. He cited five macro developments that distinguish early 2026 from previous cycles, including regulatory clarity following the conclusion of Ripple’s SEC lawsuit, the launch and scaling of RLUSD, and institutional integration of Ripple’s technology.

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Arthur also pointed to the accelerating tokenization narrative and what he called “real institutional infrastructure” that is now in place.

“Technical analysis is always driven by macro,” the market observer said. “And the macro is pointing up.”

XRP has a history of delivering sharp recoveries from extended downturns. For example, during the 2018 bear market, the asset traded near $0.30 for months before rallying to $1.70 in April 2021. It again bottomed around $0.35 in spring 2022 and remained range-bound until November 2024, when it climbed above $2 and later hit an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said that privacy-focused blockchain Midnight doesn’t have plans to onboard privacy maxis from the zcash and monero communities to the Midnight chain.

“You don’t try to get anybody from Monero or ZCash over,” he said during a Q&A session at Consensus Hong Kong on Thursday.

“They certainly will come in their own time, but they’re a different demographic,” he said. “Those are people that wake up every day and they really care about privacy, and they matter and they’re important, but what we’re going for is the billions of people that don’t know they need privacy but give it to them by default.”

Midnight announced Thursday that its mainnet will go live in March as a partner chain to Cardano.

Hoskinson then claimed the ethos of privacy is not as simplistic as the monero and zcash communities often allude to.

“What Monero and ZCash have been trying to convince people is it’s like a light switch. We’re private. The switch is on. Everybody else is not. The switch is off. That’s not how that works,” he said.

Editor’s note: The Bitcoin Conference has announced the return of Code & Country 2026, its flagship policy forum designed to bring U.S. policymakers and Bitcoin industry participants into direct, on-the-record discussions. Scheduled for April 27 during a U.S. election year, the forum aims to address how active legislation and regulatory priorities intersect with Bitcoin, digital infrastructure, and adjacent sectors such as energy and stablecoins. By removing intermediaries, the event positions itself as a venue where builders operating at scale can engage directly with lawmakers shaping the regulatory environment that will influence the next phase of technological and financial development.

Key points

• Code & Country 2026 will take place on April 27 and is open to Pro Pass and Whale Pass holders.
• The forum focuses on direct engagement between Bitcoin industry leaders and U.S. policymakers.
• Discussions will center on active legislation, regulatory priorities, and real-world policy impacts.
• Programming spans Bitcoin, energy infrastructure, stablecoin regulation, and digital civil liberties.

Why this matters

As regulatory frameworks for Bitcoin and related technologies continue to evolve, direct dialogue between policymakers and industry participants is becoming increasingly consequential. Events like Code & Country provide insight into how legislative decisions are formed and how they may affect builders, investors, and infrastructure providers operating at scale. Held during an election year, the forum reflects growing institutional engagement with Bitcoin and highlights the role policy will play in shaping the sector’s trajectory in the U.S. and beyond.

What to watch next

• Announcements of confirmed speakers and detailed programming ahead of the event.
• Key policy themes emphasized by lawmakers and regulatory representatives.
• Signals on how Bitcoin-related regulation may evolve following the forum.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Nashville, TN — February 10, 2026 — The Bitcoin Conference announced today Code & Country 2026, the flagship policy forum returning for its second year to convene industry leaders, builders and U.S. policymakers for direct discussions on the issues shaping technology, regulation, and legislative priorities.

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell to $65,800 on Wednesday, slipping back below key intraday trend lines and raising concerns that last week’s drop to $60,000 may not have been the final bottom. Now, analysts say the possibility of another drop to the yearly low ($59,800) is increasing due to a growing liquidity gap between $66,000 and $60,000. 

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin has formed a series of lower highs after repeated rejections near the $70,000–$72,000 resistance zone.

• The relative strength index (RSI) is trending toward oversold levels as the price trades below key moving averages.

• The liquidation heatmap indicated an absence of liquidity up to $60,500, keeping the risk of a downside price move open.

Failure to hold $70,000 weakens Bitcoin’s short-term prospects

Bitcoin’s one-hour chart shows multiple failed attempts to hold above $70,000. Each rejection has led to lower price highs and steady selling pressure.

BTC’s price briefly pushed into intraday highs of $69,800 before reversing sharply during the New York session on Wednesday, forming a classic swing failure pattern. The move trapped breakout longs and accelerated downside momentum.

BTC also traded below both the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages, confirming short-term bearish control. The RSI remained below 50, indicating limited buying pressure.

A 15-minute order block sits near the $60,800–$61,000 region, an area where strong buying pressure previously stepped in after BTC printed a yearly bottom at $59,800. This region remains a liquidity target if $64,000 fails to hold.

Related: When will Bitcoin start a new bull cycle toward $150K? Look for these signs

Heatmap data shows $60,000 is a liquidity magnet

Bitcoin’s liquidity heatmaps reveal stacked orders above $72,000, but it also highlights a “liquidity void” from $66,000 to $60,500. This “liquidity void” may act as a magnet, as price tends to move quickly through low-liquidity areas to tap concentrated stop clusters below.

Despite more visible liquidity being higher, the downside remains open as a final stack of leveraged longs worth over $350 million is still positioned near $60,500.

Bitcoin trader Husky said Bitcoin is slipping below the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) drawn from last week’s lows at $59,800, a level that is acting as a short-term fair value. 

With the overall market structure starting to weaken, a lack of a swift recovery above $68,000 increases the risk of further downside toward lower support levels near $65,000. For now, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a broad $60,000 to $72,000 range, according to the trader.

Likewise, market analyst EliZ noted that BTC is consolidating near $66,500 inside a descending channel. A break below this level may send the price toward the $63,400–$64,600 support zone, increasing the odds of a revisit to $60,000.

Related: Bitcoin reacts to major US jobs data beat as Fed rate pause odds near 95%