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Is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris Better for Stocks? Statistically, One Party Has Overseen a Considerably Higher Average Annual Return Over the Last Century.
In a little over three weeks, voters from across the country will head to the polls to determine the direction of our great country over the coming four years.
Although not every action taken by the incoming president and Congress will have a bearing on Wall Street, the fiscal policy proposals ultimately put into place by the incoming administration will impact corporate America and the stock market.
Over the last two presidential terms, investors have done quite well. During Donald Trump’s four years in the Oval Office, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and innovation-inspired Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), respectively, gained 56%, 67%, and 138%!
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite rallied 36%, 50%, and 36%, respectively, during President Joe Biden’s term, as of the closing bell on Oct. 10, 2024.
But with President Biden set to leave office in a little over three months, the million-dollar question becomes: Which candidate is better for stocks, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
Though history shows both parties are beneficial to equities, one party has overseen a notably higher average annual return for stocks over the last century.
Trump or Harris will inherit a historically pricey stock market
Before digging into party-dependent historical return data, it’s important to recognize the challenge that awaits the next president. Despite nearing the second anniversary of the current bull market, America’s next president will be inheriting one of the priciest stock markets on record.
While there are a lot of ways to measure value, the S&P 500’s Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio — also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE ratio) — does a particularly good job of conveying just how pricey equities are at the moment.
Unlike the traditional P/E ratio, which can be easily skewed by shock events, the Shiller P/E takes into account average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years. Looking back a full decade minimizes the impact of shock events and allows for apples-to-apples valuation comparisons.
As of the closing bell on Oct. 10, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E was north of 37, representing the third-highest reading during a continuous bull market when back-tested to January 1871.
What’s more, in 153 years, there have only been six occurrences when the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed 30 during a bull market, including the present. Following the five previous instances, the Dow, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite lost between 20% and 89% of their value. In this respect, history is working against the candidate who wins in November.
There are other potential concerns, as well, beyond just the stock market being exceptionally pricey.
For example, we’ve borne witness to the longest yield-curve inversion in history. Normally, the Treasury yield curve slopes up and to the right, with bonds set to mature in 10 or 30 years sporting higher yields than bills maturing in a year or less. But when the yield curve inverts and short-term bills bear higher yields than long-term Treasury bonds, it’s often a sign that economic turbulence is coming.
Additionally, the U.S. M2 money supply had its first notable year-over-year decline since the Great Depression in 2023. There have been only five instances when the M2 money supply has contracted by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis, including 2023, and the four prior occurrences all correlated with U.S. depressions and a double-digit unemployment rate.
Suffice it to say, neither candidate will be stepping into an ideal scenario come inauguration day.
Here’s what history says regarding which candidate is better for stocks
With these challenges in mind, let’s turn back to the question at hand: Is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris better for stocks?
Putting aside their policy proposals and how they might alter the landscape for corporate America, history shows a number of positive scenarios for investors, with one party notably outperforming the other.
Over the last 71 years, there have been 13 presidents (seven Republicans and six Democrats). Only two of these presidents (George W. Bush and Richard Nixon, both Republicans) oversaw a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the benchmark S&P 500 while in office. The average S&P 500 CAGR of the last seven Republican presidents is 6.2%, notably lower than the 9.6% mean S&P 500 CAGR for Democratic presidents.
This historic outperformance for Democratic Party presidents extends back roughly a century.
Based on data analyzed from 1926 through 2023 by Retirement Researcher, the average annual return for the S&P 500 under a unified (i.e., one party controlling both houses of Congress) or divided Congress is as follows:
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Unified Republican: 14.52% average annual return over 13 years
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Unified Democrat: 14.01% average annual return over 36 years
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Divided with Republican president: 7.33% average annual return over 34 years
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Divided with Democratic president: 16.63% average annual return over 15 years
Using this data, we can see that Republican presidents have overseen a very respectable 9.32% average annual return in the S&P 500 since 1926. However, Democratic presidents have enjoyed a considerably more robust average annual return of 14.78% in the S&P 500 during 51 years in the Oval Office.
Based purely on historical data and nothing else (note the italics!), a Kamala Harris victory in November would seem ideal for Wall Street.
Nevertheless, patience and perspective are far more important in determining investment returns than which party controls the Oval Office.
Historically speaking, time, and not any particular political party, is the greatest ally for investors. With periods of economic expansion lasting considerably longer than recessions, investors who wager on the U.S. economy to expand over long periods are set up for success.
What’s more, an extensive study updated earlier this year by Crestmont Research examined the rolling 20-year total returns, including dividends, of the S&P 500 dating back to the start of the 20th century. Even though the S&P didn’t exist until 1923, researchers were able to track the total return of its components from other indexes to 1900. This research yielded 105 rolling 20-year periods (1919-2023).
Crestmont found that all 105 rolling 20-year periods produced positive total returns. Put another way, if an investor had, hypothetically, purchased an S&P 500 index fund at any point since 1900 and held that position for 20 years, they made money, without fail, every time.
Despite the uncertainty that can accompany elections, investors who can exercise patience and perspective are perfectly positioned to thrive whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins in November.
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Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris Better for Stocks? Statistically, One Party Has Overseen a Considerably Higher Average Annual Return Over the Last Century. was originally published by The Motley Fool
Sam Altman-backed nuclear power company Oklo (OKLO) has boomed on the stock market over the past month as investors look to nuclear energy as the next big AI trade.
Shares in the company, which is designing so-called small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), have surged nearly 140% over the past month on Big Tech’s growing interest in nuclear power. SMRs are designed to produce cheaper, faster, greener energy than traditional nuclear facilities.
Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) in mid-October announced substantial investments in SMR projects as they look to balance their climate goals with the growing energy demands of the data centers powering their various AI software. Oracle’s (ORCL) Larry Ellison announced in September that the company intends to build a data center powered by SMRs.
“A nuclear power renaissance is underway with nuclear increasingly viewed as a solution which solves both the increased need for baseload power and the need to decarbonize,” wrote Craig-Hallum analyst Eric Stine in a recent note to investors. Baseload power refers to the day-to-day energy demand on an electrical grid.
Stine said Google and Amazon’s investments are “truly just the beginning of a multi-decade megatrend.”
Goldman Sachs estimates that global data center power consumption will grow 160% by 2030, driven by demand from artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, separate data from the International Atomic Energy Agency shows nuclear power production in North America potentially doubling by 2050.
Stocks of other firms making similar tech to Oklo’s, such as NuScale (SMƒR) and NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE), also surged following news of Google’s and Amazon’s investments on Oct. 14 and Oct. 16, respectively, before paring gains this week.
“The opportunity is so massive here in the market that there’s going to be a good number of folks that are successful,” Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte told Yahoo Finance.
In fact, the SMR market could grow to $300 billion by 2040, according to research cited by Citi analysts.
Oklo went public in May through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, AltC Acquisition Corp., which Altman co-founded. In addition to Altman, Cathie Wood and Peter Thiel are on its list of investors.
Sam Altman owned a 2.6% stake in the company, according to a regulatory filing in June. He became chair of Oklo in 2024 after serving as its CEO for three years.
While Oklo was founded in 2013, well ahead of the AI boom, the energy needs of artificial intelligence have been a boon to the firm as it builds its client book, DeWitte said.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is driving unprecedented demand for energy-intensive data centers. The International Energy Agency projects that data centers may account for up to one-third of the anticipated increase in U.S. electricity demand through 2026.
Major tech companies, like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, are racing to secure clean energy power sources, such as nuclear energy, to meet their mounting energy needs. One under-the-radar company with established renewable infrastructure is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this accelerating trend.
TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF) operates Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining facilities powered by approximately 95% zero-carbon energy sources, primarily hydroelectric power. The company’s revenue surged 130% year over year to $35.6 million in the second quarter of 2024, driven by an 80% increase in operational mining capacity and higher Bitcoin prices.
Moreover, TeraWulf has significantly strengthened its financial position by eliminating its debt ahead of schedule. This clean balance sheet positions TeraWulf to fund its ambitious expansion plans in both cryptocurrency mining and AI infrastructure.
TeraWulf is leveraging its existing clean energy infrastructure to enter the high-performance computing and AI market. The company has already completed a 2.5 megawatt (MW) proof-of-concept project designed for next-generation graphics processing unit (GPU) technology.
Additionally, construction is underway on a 20 MW colocation facility engineered to support AI workloads. The facility includes advanced features, like liquid cooling and redundant power systems typical of premium data centers. It is scheduled to kick off operations in Q1 2025, according to the company.
TeraWulf recently secured $425 million through a convertible note offering at a reasonable 2.75% interest rate, reflecting strong institutional investor confidence. The company plans to use these funds for strategic acquisitions and the expansion of data center infrastructure to support its AI computing initiatives.
Furthermore, TeraWulf’s board recently authorized a $200 million share repurchase program through December 2025, signaling management’s belief that the stock may be undervalued despite rising approximately 165% year to date.
TeraWulf’s clean energy resources give it a unique edge in the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market. Major tech companies are actively seeking sustainable power sources for their energy-intensive AI operations, making TeraWulf’s zero-carbon data centers particularly attractive.
I want to become financially independent. My core strategy is to grow my passive income so that it will eventually cover my recurring expenses. To reach that goal, I’m taking a multipronged approach that includes investing in dividend stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and real estate.
I’m loading up on several dividend ETFs to grow my passive income, including JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium ETF (NASDAQ: JEPQ), SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEMKT: SPHY), and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEMKT: AGG). Here’s why I like this trio for passive income.
JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium ETF takes a unique approach to generating income. The fund writes out-of-the-money call options on the Nasdaq-100 Index. That strategy generates options premium income each month that the ETF distributes to investors.
That income has really added up over the past year. The ETF’s dividend yield over the last 12 months is 9.5%. That’s a higher yield than U.S. high-yield junk bonds (7.9%) and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond (4.4%). However, the payments do ebb and flow based on the options premium income the fund generates, which fluctuates with volatility.
In addition to income, this fund offers price appreciation potential. The ETF also holds a portfolio of stocks the managers select based on data science and fundamental research. The fund’s price rises as that equity portfolio’s value increases. Because of that, the fund offers the best of both worlds: high income and upside potential.
SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF provides exposure to the high-yield (junk) bond market. These bonds have sub-investment-grade bond ratings because the companies issuing this debt have weaker financial profiles. That puts these bonds at high risk of default.
This fund holds a large basket of these bonds (over 1,900) diversified across sectors, issuers, and maturity. That diversification helps reduce the default risk. If an issuer defaults on its bond, it won’t have a major impact on the ETF. Meanwhile, even if a severe market downturn negatively impacted financially weaker companies, the overall diversification of the fund should help mute the impact on ETF investors.
Investors get paid well to assume the higher risk profile of these bonds. The fund has a distribution yield currently above 7%. While the monthly distribution payments fluctuate based on interest payments received, the fund offers a relatively steady passive income stream.
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF focuses on the other side of the bond market: investment-grade bonds. These bonds have a lower risk of defaulting, making them ideal for those seeking a very low-risk income stream.
CryptoCurrency
Could Buying This Weight Loss Stock Be Like Investing in Novo Nordisk At The Dawn of The GLP-1 Revolution?
One of the biggest sensations fueling the healthcare space right now is the medication class of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists. Even if you aren’t familiar with the term “GLP-1,” you’ve probably heard of Ozempic and Wegovy. Both medications are GLP-1 agonists, used to treat diabetes and obesity, respectively.
These treatments have become blockbuster drugs for their maker, Novo Nordisk, and have helped fuel generous gains for investors in the stock. While Novo Nordisk currently dominates the GLP-1 industry, a number of other players are looking to enter the space.
One leading entrant is Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX). Below, I’ll break down where Viking stands in its pursuit of the weight loss market, and assess whether buying the stock could be like investing in Novo Nordisk at the beginning of the Ozempic revolution.
Viking has several drug candidates in its pipeline. But the one that investors seem most honed in on is VK2735 — a dual GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist focused on treating obesity. As a dual agonist, VK2735 could wind up being a more optimal treatment for obesity and diabetes than single-pathway GLP-1 medicines such as Ozempic or Wegovy.
In late October, Viking announced that it will be meeting with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during the fourth quarter, about the proper steps and protocols to move VK2735 into a phase 3 clinical trial.
Given the information above, you might think buying Viking stock now — prior to phase 3 trials — is a lucrative opportunity. However, there is quite a bit to consider besides anecdotal updates about VK2735.
So far in 2024, shares of Viking have rocketed by a whopping 323% — putting its market cap right around $8.8 billion. Considering that the company doesn’t generate revenue, it’s hard to justify this valuation.
On the bright side, I think Viking is in a pretty solid financial position.
At the end of the third quarter, it boasted $930 million of cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. Furthermore, the company has spent roughly $105 million in operating expenses through the first nine months of the year. This implies an annual run rate of approximately $140 million in spending on research and development (R&D) and other administrative expenses, suggesting that Viking has ample liquidity to continue funding its operations.
I see Viking Therapeutics as largely a speculative opportunity. While data from its clinical trials so far have been encouraging, there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding the phase 3 study.
The prices of Bitcoin and other digital assets were significantly lower during the 2022 collapse of FTX compared to current market prices.
SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) has done an excellent job expanding its customer base and growing revenue. However, it has contended with sluggish loan growth in the high-interest rate environment, leading to investor skepticism about its short-term prospects. As a result, the stock remains 62% below its all-time high price in 2021.
However, the company has found multiple levers for growth and is seeing encouraging progress in its nonconsumer business. If you’re considering buying SoFi today, here’s what you should know.
In its early days, SoFi focused on helping people refinance their student loan debt. Then in 2020, the pandemic and policies around student loan forbearance forced SoFi to reevaluate its business. One area that helped drive its ongoing growth was personal lending. From 2020 to 2023, SoFi’s personal loan originations grew from $2.6 billion to $13.8 billion.
The higher-interest rate environment of the past couple of years has been a double-edged sword for SoFi. On one hand, consumers have had to grapple with higher interest rates, which could make it harder for them to pay down their debts.
In the second quarter, SoFi charged off $151.8 million in personal loans, giving it a charge-off ratio of 3.84% on its $15.9 billion personal loan portfolio. This is up from 2.94% one year ago and is one metric that investors have kept a close eye on. Charge-offs have risen across the banking sector over the past couple of years, which many attribute to normalizing conditions rather than systemic weakness across the consumer.
Additionally, SoFi projects that its lending segment revenue will decline 5% to 8% compared to last year. CEO Anthony Noto told investors during the first quarter that the fintech is taking “a more conservative approach in light of macroeconomic uncertainty.”
Conversely, higher interest rates have helped SoFi grow its net interest income significantly. One big reason for this was its 2022 acquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp, which enabled SoFi to hold deposits and thus, more loans on its books. Since acquiring the bank, its total deposits have grown to nearly $23 billion, thanks to its high-yielding savings accounts offering an annual yield of up to 4.5%.
Last year, SoFi brought in almost $1.3 billion in net interest income, up over 400% from 2021. This solid growth continued through the first half of this year, with its net interest income increasing 55% to $815 million.
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