Crypto World
Where could XRP end the year?
XRP has slid to around $1, down from its $3.66 high last year, with retail in fear even as whale wallets hit record highs. Where could it finish 2026? Credible forecasts run from below $1 to $8, and the gap comes down to one question. Here is what would push XRP to each level, and which path looks most defensible.
Summary
- XRP trades near $1.04 as of late June 2026, down from a July 2025 cycle high near $3.66, with relative strength near oversold and moving averages around $1.13 to $1.14 sitting overhead as resistance.
- The forecast range for year-end 2026 is unusually wide: bearish models point below $1, conservative models to roughly $1.40 to $1.80, Standard Chartered to $2.80, and bullish publishers toward $4.36 to $8.
- Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick cut his year-end target from $8 to $2.80 while keeping a $28 call for 2030, capturing the split between near-term caution and long-term conviction.
- The entire range turns on one question: whether the XRP token itself, not just Ripple’s network, captures the cross-border payment and settlement volume flowing through it.
- A move to $2 or $3 needs stabilization, ETF support, and better sentiment, while $5 or higher needs a genuine shift in market structure and proven token utility.
XRP (XRP) is trading near $1.04 as of late June 2026, and for holders it has been a deeply frustrating year: the token has cleared nearly every obstacle its community spent years waiting for, yet the price has done close to nothing but fall. XRP is down from a cycle high near $3.66 reached in July 2025, having declined through the back half of last year and the first half of this one, and it now sits roughly a third below where it began 2026.
The technical picture is heavy. The relative strength index hovers near 30, at the lower boundary where downtrends sometimes exhaust themselves, and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cluster overhead around $1.13 to $1.14, acting as the resistance XRP must reclaim to change its trend. Sentiment is weak, with retail traders fearful, even as on-chain data shows whale wallet counts at record highs, a contrarian split in which large holders appear to be accumulating while smaller holders capitulate. The question this article addresses is where that leaves XRP at the end of 2026, and the honest answer is that the credible range is enormous.
That range, from below $1 to $8, is not a sign of lazy forecasting; it reflects a real and unresolved disagreement about what XRP fundamentally is and whether its token captures value. This article works through the question methodically: where XRP stands and how it got here, the bearish case for a finish below $1, the base case in the $1.40 to $2.80 zone, the bullish case for $4 to $8, the meaning of Standard Chartered’s high-profile cut from $8 to $2.80, the enormous valuation gap that Bitwise’s own model reveals, the catalysts that could actually move the price, and three concrete scenarios for year-end.
Throughout, the goal is to show what each outcome requires rather than to pick a number, because XRP’s path depends on variables that genuinely could resolve in very different directions. The forecasts here are information, not advice, and the single most useful thing to carry through the piece is the question underneath every target: does XRP the token capture the volume that Ripple the company is winning, or does the value accrue elsewhere? Almost everything about the price follows from the answer.
Where XRP stands and how it got here
To judge where XRP might end 2026, you need the recent history, because XRP’s price has been driven as much by legal and structural events as by market cycles. The token spent years under the shadow of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit against Ripple, and that case formally concluded in 2025, establishing that XRP is not a security when sold on exchanges and removing the single largest overhang on the token.
On the back of the resolution and a friendlier regulatory climate, XRP surged to a cycle high near $3.66 in July 2025, approaching the kind of levels its long-suffering community had anticipated for years. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds launched in November 2025 and drew over $1 billion in net inflows, another long-awaited milestone. By the standards of what the community had been waiting for, 2025 delivered nearly the full checklist.
And yet the price has fallen steadily since. From the July 2025 high near $3.66, XRP declined through the rest of the year and into 2026, sliding to around $1.04 by late June against a backdrop of broad crypto weakness. The frustration in the XRP community is precisely that the token cleared every hurdle and still dropped, which has fueled a debate about whether the good news was already priced in, whether broader market conditions simply overwhelmed XRP’s catalysts, or whether something more structural is limiting how much value flows to the token.
The current setup reflects that tension: XRP is liquid and actively traded, whale wallets are accumulating at record levels in what looks like strategic positioning, but retail sentiment is fearful, and the chart is below its key moving averages. The token sits at a level that is either a coiled accumulation base before the next move higher or a waypoint in a continued decline, and which one it is depends on the catalysts and the value-accrual question explored below. The history matters because it shows XRP has already spent its biggest bullish catalysts, the legal resolution and the ETF launch, which raises the bar for what it takes to push the price meaningfully higher from here.
The bearish case: a finish below $1
The case for XRP ending 2026 below $1 is grounded in both technicals and a structural skepticism that deserves to be taken seriously. Technically, XRP trades below its key moving averages near $1.13 to $1.14, and a market that cannot reclaim those levels is, by definition, still in a downtrend. Several model-based and technical forecasting systems remain bearish on XRP, with some, such as Gov Capital and WalletInvestor, projecting outright losses over a 1-year horizon, treating recent weakness as part of a broader risk pattern rather than a dip to be bought. If macro conditions deteriorate, whether through a broad crypto downturn, a risk-off shift in markets, or disappointing follow-through on ETF flows, XRP could test and break its current support, with technical analyses pointing to downside levels in the low-$1 range and below if the bearish trend persists.
The deeper bearish argument is structural and connects to the value-accrual question at the heart of this piece. Skeptics contend that Ripple’s commercial success, its growing roster of financial-institution partnerships and its cross-border payments business, does not necessarily translate into demand for the XRP token, because much of Ripple’s settlement activity can be conducted without participants holding XRP for any meaningful duration, and because Ripple’s own dollar stablecoin offers an alternative settlement instrument that does not require the token at all. In this reading, XRP could remain a liquid, speculative asset whose price is driven by sentiment and trading rather than by genuine, sustained utility demand, and absent a clear mechanism forcing value into the token, it could drift lower or stagnate even as Ripple thrives as a company.
The bearish case, then, is not merely a chart pattern; it is a thesis that XRP the token may be structurally disconnected from the network’s success, and that a finish below $1 is what happens if the market comes to share that view while macro conditions stay unsupportive.
The base case: $1.40 to $2.80
The base case, where a plurality of serious forecasts cluster, sees XRP recovering modestly to somewhere between roughly $1.40 and $2.80 by year-end, and it rests on a more balanced set of assumptions. Conservative, model-driven forecasters such as CoinCodex and Changelly project XRP in the $1.40 to $1.80 area, with Changelly specifically modeling a December range around $1.29 to $1.55 and an average near $1.42.
These forecasts assume XRP stabilizes, reclaims some lost ground as the broader market steadies, and benefits from continued but not explosive ETF interest, without breaking decisively above its major resistance levels. This is essentially a recovery-without-breakout scenario: XRP stops falling, grinds back toward and through its moving averages, but does not enter a new bull phase.
The upper end of the base case is anchored by the most-watched institutional forecast on XRP. Geoffrey Kendrick at Standard Chartered, after cutting his target, places XRP’s year-end 2026 level at $2.80, a number that sits deliberately between the cautious algorithmic models and the more bullish crypto-publisher calls. That $2.80 figure has become a useful benchmark precisely because it comes from a major bank instead of from automated technical models or retail-facing commentary, and it implies meaningful recovery from current levels without requiring a structural transformation in how XRP captures value.
The base case overall assumes that XRP’s concluded legal status, its live ETFs, and its institutional relationships provide enough of a foundation for a recovery toward the $1.40 to $2.80 band, supported by moderate ETF inflows and a stable-to-improving macro environment, but that the bigger moves toward $5 and beyond require catalysts that are not yet in evidence. For a token that has spent its largest bullish events already, a base-case recovery into the low-single-digits is a reasonable central expectation, and it is where the weight of credible forecasting sits.
The bullish case: $4 to $8
The bullish case for XRP reaching $4 to $8 by year-end is not fringe; it has institutional roots, but it requires conditions that go well beyond a general crypto rebound. The bullish group of forecasts starts near $4.36 and extends above $6, drawing on sources including PricePrediction.net, Telegaon, and commentary such as Dominic Basulto at The Motley Fool, who has floated $5 for XRP in 2026 with asset tokenization as a potential catalyst.
At the top of the credible bull range sits Standard Chartered’s original $8 target for 2026, which Kendrick held before cutting it and which was predicated on sustained ETF inflows and the regulatory clarity following the SEC settlement. The common thread is that these higher targets all assume XRP converts its structural advantages, concluded legal status, live ETFs, and Ripple’s institutional footprint, into real, sustained demand for the token.
What would it actually take to get there? The bullish case requires several things to align: ETF inflows would need to accelerate substantially, with some bullish models assuming flows climbing toward the multibillion-dollar range that Standard Chartered modeled as the trigger for its higher targets; the CLARITY Act or similar legislation would need to pass and codify XRP’s commodity status, unlocking institutional capital that has stayed on the sidelines; Ripple’s expanding use of XRP in cross-border settlement and its banking ambitions would need to translate into demonstrable token demand; and the broader market would likely need an altcoin-favorable phase instead of the current Bitcoin-dominated, risk-off mood.
The cleanest way to summarize it, echoing the analysts who have studied the range, is that a move toward $2 to $3 requires stabilization, ETF support, and better sentiment, while a move toward $5 or higher requires a stronger shift in market structure, institutional demand, and proven token utility. The bull case is achievable, but it is conditional on XRP answering the value-accrual question in the affirmative, which is exactly what remains unproven.
Why Standard Chartered cut from $8 to $2.80
The most instructive single event in XRP’s forecast landscape this year is Standard Chartered’s revision, because it crystallizes the shift from hope to realism. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s digital-assets research lead, had previously set an $8 year-end 2026 target for XRP, a number that implied a large rally and was anchored in expectations of sustained ETF inflows and the post-settlement regulatory clarity.
As the year progressed and XRP failed to sustain the more aggressive assumptions priced into that forecast, Kendrick cut the year-end target to $2.80. The revision fit the broader weakness seen across crypto in 2026 and reflected that the catalysts, while real, were not translating into price at the pace the original target assumed. The cut matters because it came from a credible institutional source recalibrating to reality instead of from a perma-bear or a hype account, which makes the new $2.80 figure a more grounded benchmark than the targets above it.
Crucially, Kendrick left his longer-term call untouched: he kept a $28 target for XRP by 2030 even as he slashed the near-term number. That juxtaposition, $2.80 by year-end but $28 by 2030, captures the defining feature of serious XRP analysis, which is a split between near-term caution and long-term conviction. The long-term bull case rests on XRP becoming a major institutional settlement asset as Ripple’s banking and cross-border infrastructure matures, a process measured in years instead of months.
The near-term caution reflects that, right now, those flows have not materialized at the scale needed to drive the price, and the token remains hostage to sentiment and macro conditions. For anyone trying to forecast year-end 2026 specifically, the lesson of the Standard Chartered cut is sobering: even a committed long-term bull at a major bank concluded that the near-term path was far more modest than the $8 he once projected, and $2.80 now functions as the credible ceiling of the base case instead of the floor of the bull case.
The valuation gap that defines XRP
If one piece of analysis captures why XRP forecasts diverge so violently, it is the valuation work from the asset manager Bitwise, which ran XRP through a formal model and produced 2030 outcomes ranging from roughly $0.13 at the bottom to above $29 at the top. That is more than a 200-fold gap between the same firm’s bearish and bullish cases for the same token, and it sounds absurd until you see what drives it. The entire spread rests on a single assumption: whether XRP the token captures a meaningful chunk of the cross-border payment and settlement volume that Ripple is winning. Bitwise’s high case assumes it does, with XRP becoming the bridge asset that institutional value routes through; its low case assumes it does not, with banks sticking to existing systems and dollar stablecoins, including Ripple’s own, moving the money instead while XRP is bypassed.
This is the question underneath every XRP price target, and it is why the same catalysts can be read as wildly bullish or quietly bearish. Standard Chartered’s $28 by 2030 and the high single-digit-to-low-teens targets from other analysts all quietly lean on the assumption that the token captures the volume; the bearish models assume it does not.
The reason the question is so hard to settle is that Ripple can and does conduct much settlement activity without participants holding XRP for long, and its dollar stablecoin offers a token-free alternative, so the mechanism by which network success forces sustained demand into XRP is contested instead of obvious. For year-end 2026, the practical implication is that XRP’s price will be driven less by any single catalyst than by how the market’s collective answer to this question evolves. If confidence grows that the token captures the volume, the higher targets come into reach; if doubt deepens, the lower ones do. Everything else- the ETF flows, the legislation, the partnerships- ultimately feeds into that one judgment, which is why the credible forecast range is a chasm instead of a band.
The catalysts that could move XRP
Several concrete catalysts could push XRP toward one end of the range or the other before year-end, and watching them is more useful than fixating on a target. The 1st is the CLARITY Act and the broader regulatory picture. Passage of legislation codifying XRP’s commodity status into law, instead of leaving it resting on the concluded lawsuit, could unlock institutional capital that has stayed cautious, and XRP is widely seen as a beneficiary alongside other payment-focused tokens.
The 2nd is ETF flows. The spot XRP ETFs that launched in late 2025 are central to any serious forecast, because they remove supply from exchanges as providers accumulate, and the trajectory of their inflows, whether they reaccelerate toward the multibillion-dollar levels bulls assume or stagnate, will heavily influence the price. The 3rd is Ripple’s own business: its expanding use of XRP in cross-border corridors, its banking and custody ambitions, and the growth of its dollar stablecoin, which cuts both ways by validating Ripple while offering a token-free settlement path.
The 4th set of catalysts is macro and market structure: the Federal Reserve’s policy path, broad crypto liquidity, Bitcoin’s behavior, and whether the market rotates into altcoins or stays concentrated in Bitcoin. XRP, like most altcoins, tends to need a risk-on, altcoin-favorable environment to sustain large moves, and the current Bitcoin-dominated, fearful market has been a headwind.
The contrarian signal worth watching is the divergence between record whale accumulation and fearful retail sentiment, which historically can precede a reversal if the large holders prove right, though it can also simply reflect long-term holders averaging into a continued decline.
The honest framing is that these catalysts are real, but their effects are conditional, and none of them individually guarantees a direction; collectively, they will determine whether XRP’s year-end print lands in the bearish, base, or bullish zone. For a token that has already spent its biggest catalysts, the marginal mover from here is most likely the combination of ETF-flow momentum and the market’s evolving answer to the value-accrual question.
Three scenarios for XRP at year-end 2026
Drawing the analysis into scenarios clarifies the range. In the bull scenario, XRP finishes 2026 somewhere between $4 and as high as $8. This requires ETF inflows to accelerate meaningfully, the CLARITY Act or similar to pass and unlock institutional capital, an altcoin-favorable market phase to arrive, and growing confidence that XRP the token genuinely captures Ripple’s settlement volume. It is the path the most bullish credible forecasts describe, and it depends on the value-accrual question resolving in XRP’s favor while macro conditions turn supportive. It is achievable but conditional, and the bar is high given that XRP has already spent its legal and ETF-launch catalysts.
In the base scenario, the most heavily populated by serious forecasts, XRP recovers modestly to roughly $1.40 to $2.80. Support holds, the broader market steadies, ETF interest continues at a moderate pace, and XRP grinds back toward and possibly through its key moving averages without entering a new bull phase, with Standard Chartered’s $2.80 marking the credible upper edge. This recovery-without-breakout outcome fits the weight of model-based and institutional forecasting and is arguably the most likely central case. In the bear scenario, XRP finishes below $1. Macro conditions deteriorate, or ETF flows disappoint; the market comes to doubt that the token captures the network’s volume, support breaks, and XRP drifts lower as the structural skeptics’ thesis gains traction, validating the bearish models that project outright losses.
Which scenario unfolds depends primarily on ETF-flow momentum, regulatory progress, the macro backdrop, and above all the market’s evolving judgment on whether XRP the token captures the volume Ripple is winning. All 3 are live, and the wide gap between them is the most honest description of where XRP stands.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where could XRP end 2026?
The credible range is unusually wide, from below $1 to $8. Bearish models and some technical systems point below $1 if support breaks and the market doubts the token captures value. The base case, where most serious forecasts cluster, sees a modest recovery to roughly $1.40 to $2.80, with Standard Chartered’s $2.80 as the credible upper edge. The bullish case of $4 to $8 requires accelerating ETF inflows, regulatory progress, an altcoin-favorable market, and growing confidence that XRP captures Ripple’s settlement volume. The outcome depends on those catalysts and, above all, on the market’s evolving answer to whether the token, not just the network, captures value.
Why has XRP fallen to $1?
XRP is down from a July 2025 cycle high near $3.66, sliding through the back half of last year and the first half of 2026 amid broad crypto weakness. Part of the frustration is that XRP cleared its biggest catalysts: the SEC lawsuit concluded in 2025, and spot ETFs launched that November, yet the price still fell, which suggests the good news may have been priced in or overwhelmed by market conditions. The deeper question is structural: skeptics argue Ripple’s commercial success does not necessarily force sustained demand into the XRP token, especially with Ripple’s own dollar stablecoin offering a token-free settlement path. That value-accrual doubt, plus a Bitcoin-dominated risk-off market, has weighed on the price.
Why did Standard Chartered cut its XRP target?
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s digital-assets research lead, had set an $8 year-end 2026 target for XRP based on expectations of sustained ETF inflows and post-settlement regulatory clarity. As 2026 progressed and XRP failed to sustain the aggressive assumptions behind that number, he cut the year-end target to $2.80, fitting the broader crypto weakness this year. Notably, he kept his $28 target for 2030 unchanged, which captures the split in serious XRP analysis between near-term caution and long-term conviction. The cut matters because it came from a credible institutional bull recalibrating to reality, which makes $2.80 a grounded benchmark and the effective ceiling of the base case instead of the floor of the bull case.
Can XRP reach $5 or more in 2026?
It is possible but conditional on several things aligning. The bullish forecasts of $4.36 to $8 assume ETF inflows accelerate substantially, the CLARITY Act or similar passes and unlocks institutional capital, the market rotates into an altcoin-favorable phase, and XRP demonstrably converts Ripple’s settlement footprint into sustained token demand. As analysts who have studied the range put it, a move to $2 to $3 needs stabilization, ETF support, and better sentiment, while $5 or higher needs a stronger shift in market structure, institutional demand, and proven token utility. The bar is high because XRP has already spent its biggest catalysts, so reaching the bull range requires new, larger drivers instead of a simple market rebound.
What is the value-accrual question for XRP?
It is the single question underneath every XRP price target: whether the XRP token itself, not just Ripple’s network, captures the cross-border payment and settlement volume flowing through it. Bitwise’s formal model shows why it matters so much, producing 2030 outcomes from about $0.13 to above $29, a more than 200-fold gap driven entirely by this assumption. The high case assumes XRP becomes the bridge asset institutional value routes through; the low case assumes banks and dollar stablecoins, including Ripple’s own, move the money while XRP is bypassed. Because Ripple can conduct much settlement without participants holding XRP for long, the mechanism forcing demand into the token is contested, which is why forecasts diverge so violently.
Are whales accumulating XRP?
On-chain data shows XRP whale wallet counts at record highs even as retail sentiment sits in fear, a contrarian divergence in which large holders appear to be accumulating while smaller holders capitulate. Bulls read this as strategic positioning ahead of a potential reversal, on the logic that large, informed holders are buying weakness. The cautionary reading is that record whale accumulation can also reflect long-term holders averaging into a continued decline that does not reverse on schedule, so it is a supportive signal instead of a guarantee. It is one of the more constructive data points in XRP’s current setup, but like every catalyst here, its payoff depends on the broader market and the value-accrual question resolving
This article is information, not financial or investment advice. XRP price levels, indicator readings, and analyst forecasts reflect data available as of June 28, 2026, are point-in-time, and can change rapidly. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and you can lose money. Price predictions are inherently uncertain, and the scenarios described are not guarantees. Do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decision.
BNY, the world's largest custodian bank, has made USDC the first stablecoin supported on its Digital Asset Custody platform, giving institutional clients a single environment to store, transfer, mint, and redeem Circle's dollar-pegged token alongside traditional assets. The integration, announced… Read the full story at The Defiant
Bitget has launched a two-month global trading league with 240,000 USDT in total prizes as the exchange combines crypto futures and traditional market CFDs in one competition.
Summary
- Bitget has launched the UEX Futures League, combining crypto futures and traditional market CFDs in one global trading competition.
- The two-stage tournament offers a total prize pool of 240,000 USDT, with top teams advancing to a live global championship.
- The launch follows Bitget’s Stock+ rollout and MiCA application in Austria as the exchange expands its multi-asset offering.
According to Bitget, the new UEX Futures League will allow traders to compete across crypto futures and contracts for difference through a single trading account. The tournament is designed around team-based performance, with rankings decided by return on investment.
The competition will run in two separate rounds. Bitget said the crypto futures phase will take place from June 1 to June 30, while the CFD phase will run from July 1 to July 31. Each round carries a 120,000 USDT prize pool.
The exchange said the top eight teams from each stage will qualify for the UEX Global Alpha Tournament, a live invitation-only final for the best-performing teams. Bitget plans to bring 16 teams from around the world into the final stage, with the top three traders from each team taking part.
Finalists will receive an all-expenses-paid trip to an undisclosed location, where they will compete in live trading sessions for the championship, according to Bitget.
Bitget is using competition to promote multi-asset trading
The UEX Futures League comes as Bitget promotes its Universal Exchange model, which brings crypto, commodities, forex, indices and other financial products into one trading environment.
Bitget said the league is not built around simulations or classroom-style learning. Instead, participants will trade in real market conditions while representing their teams and communities.
Commenting on the launch, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said:
“Trading has always been competitive, but it’s also one of the most social parts of our industry. The UEX Futures League brings those elements together by turning trading into a team experience where users can collaborate and represent their communities.”
Chen added that combining crypto and traditional markets in one competition creates an event focused not only on performance, but also on the people and communities involved in trading.
The format follows Bitget’s recent push to expand beyond crypto-only products. In a separate update, the exchange said its Stock+ feature under Stocks 2.0 allows eligible users to buy real U.S. stocks using crypto.
According to Bitget, users can fund Stock+ trades with digital assets, which are converted into Circle’s USDC stablecoin before the stock purchase is completed.
Stock+ and MiCA plans add context to Bitget’s expansion
Bitget said Stock+ differs from synthetic stock products and derivatives because eligible users gain ownership of the underlying U.S. shares through regulated brokers. The company added that holders may receive cash dividends and stock split adjustments tied to their positions.
The exchange also said Stock+ supports U.S. pre-market, regular market and after-hours sessions, giving crypto holders access to U.S.-listed companies without moving funds through separate banking and brokerage systems.
Alongside product expansion, Bitget EU has also moved on the regulatory front. In a June 17 update, Bitget said its European unit had submitted an application to Austria’s Financial Market Authority for authorization as a crypto-asset service provider under MiCAR.
The company said the application remains under regulatory review. Bitget also told users that existing access to Bitget Global products and services continues under current contractual and legal arrangements posted online.
Taken together, Bitget’s UEX Futures League, Stock+ launch and MiCAR application show the exchange building around multi-market access, team-based trading and regulated regional growth, while keeping crypto at the center of its platform.
Large XRP transfers are becoming more prominent across centralized exchanges overall, while their activity on Binance has declined. Data from the 7-day moving average of the XRP Whale vs Retail Spread across all centralized exchanges rose from 26% on May 6 to 50.9% on June 29. This is an increase of 24.9 percentage points.
According to CryptoQuant, the latest trend indicates that transfers involving more than 100,000 XRP are making up a much larger share of exchange outflows compared to smaller retail-sized transactions than they did in early May.
Whale Presence Outside Binance
The same cannot be said for Binance. CryptoQuant found that the exchange’s Whale vs Retail Spread dropped from 62% on June 11 to 44.6% on June 29, a decline of 17.4 percentage points. As a result, Binance’s reading now stands 6.3 percentage points below the broader centralized exchange average of 50.9%.
The Whale vs Retail Spread measures the difference between XRP outflow volumes generated by transfers above 100,000 XRP and those involving 100,000 XRP or less. Higher readings indicate that whale-sized transactions account for a larger share of exchange outflows than retail transfers.
The analysis revealed that the growing gap between Binance and the wider exchange market essentially suggests that large XRP transfers are becoming less concentrated on Binance and increasingly distributed across other trading platforms.
Price Struggles
XRP spent most of June under pressure after falling from above $1.30 at the start of the month to around $1.05 at the time of writing. Although the crypto asset saw a brief rebound in mid-June, the recovery quickly faded as sellers regained control and pushed prices lower again.
It even slipped behind BNB and USDC in market capitalization. With XRP currently testing the crucial $1.06 support previously identified by Ali Martinez, the asset is now exposed to lower support areas at $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51.
Meanwhile, Glassnode reported that XRP investors are realizing more losses than profits. Despite the weakness, some analysts remain optimistic. EGRAG CRYPTO, for one, believes that if XRP follows historical price patterns linked to its “Central Line,” the asset could eventually reach between $5.70 and $8, based on gains seen during previous market cycles.
The post XRP Whales Are Moving On, and Binance Is No Longer Their Top Choice appeared first on CryptoPotato.
David Schwartz, who co-founded the XRP Ledger, has proposed a transaction reservation scheme as a potential fix for front-running on the network’s decentralized exchange and automated market maker.
His proposal was in response to a post from the XRP-focused account XRPresso.io, which argued that validators and well-connected nodes can exploit pre-validation transaction visibility to extract value from regular traders.
Front-Running Concerns on XRPL
According to XRPresso, transfers usually sit in a publicly visible queue before a ledger closes on the XRPL, with validators and some nodes able to see these pending trades. As such, they are in a position to assess whether sandwiching them would be profitable, and then to submit multiple entries to game their position in the final canonical ordering.
And because that ordering is decided by a known, deterministic formula involving transaction hashes, submitting similar entries increases the odds of landing in a favorable slot relative to the target trade. That, as XRPresso claimed, could see everyday users trading through standard wallets and apps getting systematically disadvantaged while more sophisticated operators extract value from their trades.
Schwartz acknowledged that the issue is real but pushed back on parts of the framing. He pointed out that all participants have an equal opportunity to see transfers and argued that validators don’t gain any structural advantage unless several of them conspire. Such an action, he said, would be visible on-chain and lead to the removal of the offending validators from the trust lists.
“If multiple validators did conspire, or a single validator attempted it, it would be *very* obvious to everyone exactly who was doing this,” he wrote.
Furthermore, he said that there have never been any reports of anyone attempting something like that, except as a proof of concept. The biggest issue, according to him, has been profitability, since to make money, the actors would need both high liquidity that would make volumes worth the effort available and low liquidity to move the price measurably and at a reasonable cost.
Still, he offered a solution in which a user would submit a reservation transaction specifying a ledger sequence number and a transaction ID, and pay a reservation fee. If the reservation succeeds and the actual activity is broadcast before that ledger closes, it gets guaranteed priority over any other formed after the original was disclosed.
“This guarantees that you can execute your transaction ahead of any transaction that was formed after your transaction was disclosed,” explained the developer. “You would use this approach any time you want to perform a transaction that you want to ensure cannot be sandwiched or front run.”
The Front-Running Debate in DeFi
XRPresso responded that while Schwartz’s reservation idea is worth exploring, it would add cost and complexity and does not fully address the underlying visibility problem in the pre-validation stage. According to them, targeted confidentiality for the details of pending actions would be a cleaner long-term fix, with such approaches already being used on other chains.
The front-running problem isn’t unique to the XRP ecosystem, and Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao proposed a dark pool perpetuals DEX last year that uses zero-knowledge cryptography to hide order data until execution. That idea drew criticism too, with some decentralization advocates claiming that hiding order books will just recreate the insider dynamics that crypto was meant to move away from.
The post Ripple CTO Emeritus Unveils Plan to Tackle XRPL DEX Front-Running appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Bitcoin is hovering around a critical decision point, with retail investors leaning toward the exit while parts of the broader market—especially corporate and long-oriented players—appear more willing to wait. At the time of writing, BTC is trading near $60,300, and the market’s behavior suggests hesitation rather than panic or strong risk-on conviction.
Under the surface, multiple signals are pointing to a fragile stabilization: US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have been a major headwind, leverage dynamics in Bitcoin futures are cooling, and trading activity is subdued as participants wait for the next catalyst.
Key takeaways
- ETF outflows remain a drag: In June, investors withdrew $4.4 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the worst month this year.
- Institutions are not in “sell mode”: While some buying has slowed, the majority of corporate BTC treasuries have not reduced existing positions, and Strategy continues to buy BTC at a slower pace.
- Leverage is unwinding without chaos: Total open interest across Bitcoin futures is $19.92 billion, down slightly from about $20.1 billion two weeks ago, while long borrowing costs have fallen from 0.25% to 0.12%.
- Downside risk is tied to a specific level: A break below $58,800 is flagged as the “danger zone,” with roughly $500 million of long positions potentially forced out.
- Near-term direction depends on confirmation: Price needs to reclaim $62,000 to improve the odds of a sustained push higher; macro events could quickly reverse sentiment.
Retail pressure meets institutional restraint
The clearest tension in the current setup is between retail sentiment and larger, slower-moving capital. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 36 out of 100, signaling fear but not total capitulation. That aligns with a market that is not fully breaking—yet capital is still flowing out in meaningful amounts.
According to SoSoValue, June saw investors pull $4.4 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the worst month so far in 2024. ETF flow data is often a useful proxy for retail and mainstream allocation behavior, and the trend suggests many participants have either de-risked or waited for a better entry.
At the same time, institutional behavior looks more defensive than bearish. The same reporting notes that although Strategy continues to purchase BTC, the pace and size of buying have slowed. Importantly, while ETF and treasury accumulation are not described as a fresh “buying phase,” a majority of corporate BTC treasuries have not reduced their existing holdings. That matters because it reduces the likelihood of a broad, synchronized corporate unwind—one of the catalysts that can accelerate drawdowns.
Futures positioning: leverage unwinds, but confidence isn’t fully restored
While ETF flows paint a cautious picture, Bitcoin’s derivatives data points to gradual deleveraging rather than forced liquidation. Total open interest across Bitcoin futures on all exchanges is reported at $19.92 billion, compared with roughly $20.1 billion two weeks earlier. That change implies risk is being trimmed, but not in a sudden stampede.
Borrowing costs also support the idea that the sharpest stress may have eased. The long funding rate—described here as the cost of holding long positions—has dropped from 0.25% to 0.12%. Lower carry costs can signal fewer participants crowding into longs, but the level still reflects that traders are paying to hold—suggesting they’re positioning for recovery without fully leaning in.
Crucially, a specific downside threshold is being highlighted at $58,800, noted as Bitcoin’s low for the day. If BTC breaks below that level, the market could see a delayed liquidation cascade: an estimated $500 million worth of traders holding long positions may be forced to close. In practical terms, that kind of shift can transform a slow grind lower into faster downside momentum, which in turn can spread selling pressure beyond the initial break.
Why volume is quiet: the market appears to be waiting for a trigger
A common feature of consolidation phases is muted price action accompanied by limited confirmation in the flow and positioning data. Here, trading volume is described as down, and changes in open interest are small—signals that the market may be paused between participants who have already sold and those who want to buy but are not yet convinced.
This “waiting” dynamic can be interpreted in two directions at once. Retail may be done selling for now, but the absence of a volume-led rebound suggests buyers are not willing to step in at size while uncertainty persists. The result is a narrower range where breakouts can fail quickly if the catalyst is missing.
Corporate activity underscores that asymmetry. MicroStrategy reportedly bought 3,600 Bitcoin in June for $236 million, a clear example of a company treating volatility as an opportunity. However, the broader institutional picture is characterized as a hold rather than a surge into accumulation. That pause can keep the market range-bound—until either downside pressure forces risk reduction or renewed confidence brings fresh demand.
What levels and macro events could decide the next move
From a technical standpoint, the article frames $62,000 as a key reclaim level for Bitcoin to make a meaningful upward move. Without that, any rallies may struggle to attract sustained follow-through, especially if ETF outflows continue.
On the downside, the risk is not only price-based but catalyst-driven. The reporting points to potential macro developments that could weigh on sentiment during the week—specifically citing the June employment report and any escalation or resumption of military action related to Iran. Even when crypto-specific demand is the dominant narrative, broader risk appetite often determines whether traders treat pullbacks as buying opportunities or as reasons to step aside.
For now, the market appears suspended between cooling leverage and persistent capital caution. If BTC holds above $58,800, the current pause could evolve into a stabilization phase. If it slips below, the liquidation risk tied to long positioning could accelerate the move toward $56,000, potentially extending pressure into the following week.
Traders and longer-term investors should watch whether ETF outflows continue to improve or worsen, and whether futures positioning remains orderly as Bitcoin tests the $58,800 and $62,000 thresholds—especially around the next macro headline that could quickly change risk appetite.
Key Takeaways
- Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped 3.7% to $350.24 during its inaugural trading session as a Dow Jones Industrial Average constituent, taking over from Verizon Communications.
- The index reshuffle was revealed by S&P Dow Jones Indices on June 23; Alphabet’s elevated share price makes it one of the Dow’s heaviest-weighted stocks.
- With this addition, five of the Magnificent Seven tech giants—Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft—are now Dow components.
- Reports indicate Google has restricted Meta Platforms’ access to Gemini AI infrastructure as computing resource demand reaches unprecedented levels.
- Cloud services revenue at Alphabet surged 63% in Q1 2026—the fastest expansion since the segment’s disclosure began in 2019—with projections hitting $480 billion by 2031.
Alphabet (GOOGL) made its official entrance into the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday, and investors responded enthusiastically. Shares advanced 3.7% to reach $350.24 during its debut session as a Dow constituent.
S&P Dow Jones Indices publicly disclosed the index modification on June 23. Alphabet secured the position formerly occupied by Verizon Communications, which ranked among the index’s least impactful members.
Given the Dow’s price-weighted methodology, Alphabet instantly assumes significant influence within the 30-company benchmark. Its premium share valuation grants it substantially greater weight than Verizon commanded.
This development elevates the Magnificent Seven representation in the Dow to five companies. Alphabet now joins Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft within this prestigious index.
The previous restructuring occurred in November 2024, when Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams displaced Intel and Dow Inc.
Passive funds that replicate the Dow must acquire GOOGL shares to maintain proper index tracking. Approximately $115 billion in assets were indexed or benchmarked to the Dow as of December 31, 2024—considerably less than the roughly $20 trillion following the S&P 500, where Alphabet already maintains membership.
Consequently, mandatory purchasing activity stemming from this index revision remains modest compared to potential S&P 500 inclusion.
Tech Giants Rebound and Gemini Capacity Constraints
Monday’s upward movement extended beyond mere index mechanics. The broader Magnificent Seven cohort experienced a robust recovery. Meta, Amazon, and Tesla each advanced over 3%. Nvidia and Microsoft recorded gains exceeding 1%. Apple trailed with a modest 0.1% increase.
The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF had declined 13% throughout June leading up to Friday—tracking toward its steepest monthly decline since its April 2023 inception. Monday provided welcome respite.
Additional developments contributed momentum to Alphabet’s rally. The Financial Times disclosed that Google has been throttling Meta Platforms’ access to its Gemini AI infrastructure, alongside certain smaller customers, citing overwhelming demand for computational resources.
Neither Google nor Meta provided immediate commentary on the matter.
Cloud Expansion Validates AI Investment Thesis
While restricting client access might superficially suggest revenue constraints, it actually underscores extraordinary demand for Google’s artificial intelligence capabilities.
Alphabet’s cloud business delivered 63% revenue expansion in Q1 2026—representing the division’s most robust performance since the company initiated segment reporting in 2019.
TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge projects cloud revenue will compound at a 37% annual rate, escalating from approximately $100 billion this year to $480 billion by 2031.
Alphabet shares had appreciated roughly 11% year-to-date through the preceding Friday, positioning it among the strongest performers within the Magnificent Seven collective this year.
The chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have narrowed after Galaxy Digital reduced its approval odds to 50%, even as Senate Republicans continue pushing for a vote when lawmakers return from recess.
Summary
- Galaxy Digital has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50% despite ongoing Senate negotiations.
- Senator Tim Scott has backed a July Senate vote while lawmakers continue working to resolve key policy differences.
- Negotiators are still discussing ethics rules, anti-money laundering measures, and digital asset market oversight before the Senate returns.
According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, congressional staff, White House officials, and crypto industry representatives have continued negotiating behind closed doors while the U.S. Senate remains in recess until July 13. Their discussions are focused on resolving differences between separate versions of the crypto market structure bill produced by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees before senators reconvene.
The negotiations are centered on several unresolved issues, including ethics requirements, anti-money laundering provisions, and the framework for regulating digital asset markets. Reaching agreement on those points is considered necessary before the legislation can move toward a Senate floor vote.
July timeline faces procedural hurdles
Even if negotiators finalize the bill before lawmakers return, the Senate calendar could delay its progress.
Terrett reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the National Defense Authorization Act will take priority once the Senate resumes work in mid-July. As a result, consideration of the CLARITY Act could slip to the latter half of July or even the opening week of August.
The timing has become increasingly important because many observers believe the legislation needs Senate approval before Congress leaves for its August recess. Missing that legislative window could make it substantially harder for the bill to advance before the end of the 2026 congressional session.
Passing the measure will also require bipartisan support. The legislation needs at least 60 votes in the Senate, while Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Full Republican backing is not guaranteed, as Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul opposed the earlier GENIUS Act, making Democratic support important for the CLARITY Act as well.
Republican support remains intact despite lower approval odds
Although negotiations remain unfinished, senior Republicans have continued encouraging a July vote.
In a recent post on X, Senator Tim Scott endorsed Majority Leader John Thune’s proposed timeline for bringing crypto market structure legislation before the Senate. Scott said the bipartisan proposal would provide clearer regulatory rules for digital assets, strengthen consumer protections, and help keep innovation in the United States. He also urged lawmakers to move the legislation forward for the benefit of Americans.
While Republican leaders continue pressing ahead, market expectations have become more cautious. Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to 50%, highlighting the political and procedural challenges that still remain before the legislation can clear the Senate.
The next two weeks are expected to play a decisive role as negotiators work to settle outstanding policy differences before senators return to Washington. Whether those talks produce a compromise could determine if the CLARITY Act reaches the Senate floor in July or loses momentum ahead of Congress’s summer recess.
TLDR:
- Chainlink holder count climbed to 892.8K Ethereum wallets after adding more than 8K holders in five days.
- Recent wallet growth accelerated sharply and pushed LINK closer to the 900K holder milestone.
- Santiment linked the increase to growing interest in tokenized assets and institutional blockchain projects.
- LINK holder growth continued even while the token traded near recent local price lows.
Chainlink has surpassed another important adoption milestone amid the recent surge in wallet growth over the last few days. The network now has 892,800 non-empty Ethereum wallets, which have swelled by over 8,000 in the last five days, according to fresh on-chain data.
The boost is part of a growing spotlight on the crypto market on tokenized assets and institutional blockchain projects. Despite LINK trading near recent lows, the latest stats suggest more people are joining the network.
Chainlink Holder Count Rises as More Wallets Join the Network
On-chain analytics platform Santiment reported that Chainlink’s holder count has entered a much steeper growth phase. The platform tracks non-empty Ethereum wallets holding LINK.
Its latest data shows the network added more than 8,000 holders over five days. That pushed the total number of wallets holding LINK to roughly 892,800.
The recent increase stands out from previous growth trends. According to Santiment, Chainlink could move beyond the 900,000-holder mark before the week ends if the current pace continues.
Holder growth remains one of the clearest ways to measure network adoption. A larger holder base often reflects increasing participation across an ecosystem, regardless of short-term market movements.
While price often attracts the headlines, wallet data can tell a different story. In Chainlink’s case, more users continue entering the network even as LINK remains close to recent local lows.
Institutional Blockchain Activity Keeps Chainlink in Focus
Santiment linked the recent wallet expansion to several developments involving real-world assets and institutional finance.
These include Project Pangea, DTCC’s collateral initiatives, tokenized assets, and 24/5 equity data streams.
Chainlink has become part of a growing number of blockchain projects supporting tokenized financial infrastructure.
Its oracle network provides external data that decentralized applications and financial platforms rely on. The latest wallet figures arrived during a period when institutional blockchain projects continue expanding.
Real-world asset tokenization has also remained one of the industry’s most active development areas throughout the year.
Although LINK has yet to stage a major price recovery, wallet growth has continued moving higher.
Santiment noted that the increase in holders has taken place while the token trades near local lows, suggesting network participation continues to build despite subdued market conditions.
Chainlink’s expanding holder base adds another metric to watch as adoption develops across the ecosystem. The latest on-chain figures show users continue accumulating LINK while institutional blockchain and tokenized asset initiatives remain active across the broader crypto market.
Securitize, a tokenization specialist backed by BlackRock, said Monday it cleared a final major hurdle to becoming a public company after shareholders of Cantor Equity Partners II (CEPT) approved the firms’ proposed merger on Monday.
The transaction is expected to close on Wednesday, subject to customary closing conditions, with the combined company beginning trading Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SECZ, the company said in an X post.
Shares of CEPT surged as much as 20% during the Monday session.
Founded in 2017, Securitize has become one of the leading providers of tokenization infrastructure, helping asset managers including BlackRock, Apollo, KKR and VanEck issue blockchain-based versions of traditional investment products. The company counts BlackRock and ARK Invest among its early investors.
The listing comes as tokenization — the process of representing traditional assets such as funds, bonds and private credit on blockchain networks — gains traction across Wall Street. Citi has projected tokenized assets could reach $5.5 trillion by 2030, while Standard Chartered estimated the market could grow to $2 trillion by 2028 as financial institutions increasingly move real-world assets onto blockchain rails.
The NYSE debut will give public market investors one of the few pure-play opportunities to gain exposure to the rapidly growing tokenization sector.
The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has published its landmark crypto regulatory framework, marking the completion of its crypto roadmap seeking to bring digital assets under the regulator’s purview.
Significant new elements include mandatory licensing for crypto firms, capital stress-testing requirements, improved market manipulation and insider trading rules, as well as simplified capital requirement standards for stablecoin issuers, according to a Tuesday press release shared with Cointelegraph.
The licensing window for crypto companies will open from September until Feb. 28, 2027, before the regime goes live on Oct. 25, 2027.
The new framework means that crypto companies in the UK will be held to “similar standards” as other financial service providers in the country, wrote David Geale, executive director of payments and digital finance at the FCA, adding:
“We’ve created a framework that doesn’t force firms to choose between regulatory certainty and room to innovate – this regime means they can have both in a stable, competitive home to build and grow.”
Cryptocurrency firms, including trading platforms, custodians, stablecoin issuers, staking companies and other intermediaries, must obtain FCA authorization to operate in the UK under the new framework.
The framework comes nearly a month after the regulator concluded its consultation window on the guidelines for the country’s future crypto regime on June 3.
Overview of FCA crypto regime, next steps and savings provisions. Source: FCA
AML-authorized crypto firms need new licenses in the UK
Crypto firms with existing authorization under the money laundering regulations will not have their licenses automatically converted and will have to obtain new authorization.
Certain companies already operating in the UK may continue specified activities for a limited period as they seek authorisation under the framework’s transitional “savings provisions.”
The FCA said that pre-application support meetings for companies will be available starting next month.
The regulator will set out its policy statements during a webinar on July 17. It will also publish a further policy statement in September to establish how the regulatory perimeter applies to cryptoasset activities.
Related: Aave Labs’ Push gains UK FCA crypto registration
FCA simplifies stablecoin capital standards, promises tailored DeFi guidance
The FCA has maintained the core stablecoin framework but made minor adjustments, including simplifying the backing asset composition requirement by no longer requiring estimated redemption forecasts, adding requirements for statutory trust over reserves and removing unallocated backing fund accounts.
The guidelines will also require issuers to offer specific withdrawal rights to users, permit a 5% excess to be held in the backing asset pool and allow limited intragroup custody subject to safeguards.
The FCA noted that this establishes a “baseline regime for stablecoin issuance” and added that it will consult with the Bank of England later this year on how the the agency’s rules will apply to stablecoin issuers recognized as systemic by HM Treasury.
New guidelines for stablecoin issuance. Source: FCA
Later this year, the FCA will also host a separate consultation on decentralized finance (DeFi) guidance and operational resilience guidelines for firms using distributed ledger technology (DLT).
It also plans to consult on updates to the Financial Crime Guide relevant to crypto asset firms.
“We’re going to continue to work on DeFi,” said Matthew Long, director of payments & digital assets at the FCA, adding that they are seeking a case-by-case approach as “true DeFi” with “no identifiable person undertaking the activity” will fall out of the scope of the regulation.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
Money Talk Monday Week 1 | Social Media Financial Transparency #finance #financialtransparency #fyp
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