Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Four Israeli soldiers were killed and about 60 injured on Sunday night after a Hizbollah attack drone slammed into a military base in the centre of the country.
Seven of the Israeli troops were seriously injured, according to the Israel Defense Forces, in one of the deadliest strikes by the Iran-backed militant movement since Israel escalated its air and ground offensive in Lebanon three weeks ago.
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Meanwhile, early on Monday local health authorities in Gaza reported that at least 20 people were killed by an Israeli air strike near a hospital compound in the centre of the shattered enclave.
The Israeli military confirmed it had struck the Shuhada Al Aqsa hospital in the city of Deir al-Balah. It said the “former” hospital was now being used by Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, as a “command and control centre”.
Hizbollah took credit for the drone attack near the town of Binyamina, saying it was in response to Israel’s escalating attacks on Lebanon and to show off its capabilities.
In the statement, it said it targeted the Israeli military’s Golani brigade, launching dozens of projectiles to test Israel’s air defences while the squadron of attack drones was also launched over the border.
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One drone evaded Israeli air defences and struck a cafeteria on an army training base. Israeli media reported that many of the victims were Golani brigade cadets. Eyewitnesses said no warning sirens were activated before the strikes. The IDF said it was still investigating the incident.
US defence secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant and expressed his condolences for the IDF soldiers’ deaths, the Pentagon said.
Earlier the US said it was sending an advanced antimissile system to Israel, a move that will boost Israel’s defences as Benjamin Netanyahu’s government plans retaliatory strikes against Iran. The ground-based Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system is designed to shoot down ballistic missiles.
ALMOST one million individuals on benefits are missing out on billions of pounds in extra payments, new figures reveal.
These people do receive benefits, but their needs have increased since their initial claims, and they have not yet received the additional support they are entitled to.
For the first time, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has published a report providing these figures.
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The report reveals that nearly one million people are missing out on approximately £3.1billion in extra payments in 2023/24, up from £2.3billion in 2022/23.
Previously, the DWP only offered separate statistics on the number of people claiming each benefit and the amounts they receive, as well as the number of people who do not claim benefits they are entitled to and the amounts they are missing out on.
The new report, however, highlights the issue of “unfulfilled” benefits – where claimants are not receiving all the benefits components they qualify for.
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Examples of “unfulfilled” benefits include:
A person who initially claims a disability benefit but whose condition worsens potentially qualifies for a higher rate of benefit that they have not applied for.
Someone receiving help with rent through Universal Credit who has not reported an increased rent since their last assessment.
An individual whose savings have decreased since their last assessment, making them eligible for more benefit
Steve Webb, former pensions minister and partner at LCP, said: “There is understandable focus on people who miss out completely on benefits to which they are entitled.
“But this new report shines a helpful light on another reason why people may be missing out on billions of pounds in benefits.
“These are cases where people’s circumstances have changed since they first claimed benefit and would now be entitled to extra help but have not updated DWP. “
10 PIP freebies worth up to £40k
MOST UNFULFILLED BENEFITS
The three largest benefits, accounting for around three quarters of “unfulfilled” benefit expenditure are:
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Personal independence payment (PIP) – £870million (around £2,900 for each claim affected)
Disability living allowance (DLA) – £750million (around £2,500 for each claim affected)
Universal Credit – £730million (around £2,100 for each claim affected)
The DWP estimates that over 300,000 people on PIP qualify for bigger payments.
Millions of households suffering from a long-term illness, disability or mental health condition can get extra help through personal PIP.
PIP has two parts, both of which are assessed separately.
Whether you get one or both depends on how severely your condition affects you.
If you need help getting out or moving around, you may qualify for the mobility part of PIP.
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The weekly rate is either £28.70 or £75.75.
The weekly rate for the daily living part of PIP is either £72.65 or £105.55.
You could get up to £184.30 a week if you qualify for both components.
According to DWP data, individuals with “unfulfilled” PIP claims could increase their payments by up to £2,900 annually.
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BOOTS YOUR PIP PAYMENTS
IF your condition has deteriorated since you initially claimed PIP, you could increase your payments by reporting a change in circumstances.
The following changes could mean that you’re entitled to higher payments:
You need more help with daily living and mobility tasks
Tour health professional tells you that your condition will last for a longer or shorter time than you reported before
A medical professional has said you might have 12 months or less to live
To report a change in circumstances, call the PIP Enquiry Line on 0800 121 4433.
A further 300,000 DLA claimants are thought to be missing out on boosted payments worth up to £2,500 a year, too.
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The benefit provides extra support for people who have care or mobility needs.
However, if you still claim the benefit, you could report a change in circumstances and get your payments boosted in the meantime.
BOOST YOUR DLA PAYEMNTS
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SIMILARLY to PIP claims, if your circumstances change and you require additional support, you may be entitled to increased DLA.
For example, if the level of help you need or your condition changes, you should report a change in circumstances.
You can do this by calling the DLA helpline on 0800 121 4600 (if you were born before April 8, 1948) or 0800 731 0122 (if you were born after April 8, 1948).
The DWP’s new report also shows that around 350,000 Universal Credit claimants are missing out on an extra £2,100 a year in payments.
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Universal Credit is a monthly payment to help with your living costs.
How much money you’ll get depends on your circumstances, but the monthly standard allowance is £393.45 for a single person over 25 and £617.60 for a couple who are both over that age.
If you have a disability or health condition, or if your child does, there are extra top-ups you can get in your Universal Credit award.
If you rent, you can also get help towards those costs and any service fees you might pay.
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Steve Webb added: “I would encourage anyone on a disability benefit whose condition has worsened or anyone on a housing benefit whose rent has gone up to make sure that DWP are aware of their latest situation.
“Anyone on a means-tested benefit who has seen their savings fall since they were last assessed should also update the DWP.
“We need to ensure that all benefits are paid on the basis of people’s current needs and not their situation months or years ago.”
BOOST YOUR UNIVERSAL CREDIT PAYMENTS
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IT’S vital to report changes to your circumstances so you keep getting the correct amount of Universal Credit each month.
Fail to report the following changes, and you could be receiving less Universal Credit than you’re entitled to:
Having a child
Your rent going up
Changes to your health condition
Becoming to ill to work or meet your work coach
Changes to your earnings
Changes to your savings
You can report a change of circumstances by signing in to your Universal Credit account by visiting gov.uk/sign-in-universal-credit.
Elite members of each programme will receive complimentary status in the other scheme, while Aeroplan elite members can now convert points to Marriott Bonvoy at a 1:1 ratio
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The gambling industry generates excitement by advertising long-odds possibilities rather than expected outcomes. For example:
Ministers are considering a tax raid of up to £3bn on the gambling sector as Rachel Reeves casts around for funds to shore up the public finances.
Treasury officials are understood to be weighing up proposals, put forward by two influential thinktanks and backed by one of the party’s top five individual donors, to double some of the taxes levied on online casinos and bookmakers.
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Measures could be included in this month’s budget, Labour’s first in 14 years, as the chancellor tries to plug the £22bn “black hole” that she claimed to have found in the nation’s finances after taking office.
Sources familiar with the discussions said the Treasury had yet to make a decision but appeared receptive to tweaking the UK’s complex regime of betting and gaming duties to raise extra funds of between £900m and £3bn, despite opposition from industry lobbyists.
Nonetheless, perspectives seemed to shift between the Guardian’s report late on Friday and Monday’s London market open. Per today’s FT:
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[O]ne government figure told the Financial Times that ministers are not planning such a tax raid on the gambling industry in the Budget on October 30.
That’s after gambling industry types mobilised over the weekend to voice their well-rehearsed arguments about how higher levies would kill HMRC’s golden goose, drive the industry underground and/or towards unregulated markets, displease The Palace, etc. There’s a Betting & Gaming Council press release from Friday that lists all the main talking points, which means we don’t have to.
Reactions from the sellside have been similarly feverish. Here’s Jefferies’ analyst James Wheatcroft:
The proposals apparently being considered would all but wipe out bookmaker profitability in the UK, per our estimates. The headlines highlight that changing tax (and regulation) is a legitimate concern when investing in gaming companies, but the extent of these proposals seems unrealistic.
And here’s Barclays’ Brandt Montour:
While the article appears credible, the proposed changes (a doubling of most tax rates within one of the proposals) seem egregious to us, and will likely raise realistic concerns over anti-competitive impacts (most small operators would likely close-down) as well as giving a substantial boost to the black market.
The Guardian report refers to two think-tank papers. The Institute for Public Policy Research has suggested doubling the general betting duty levied on high-street bookmakers from 15 per cent to 30 per cent and raising online gaming duty to 50 per cent. The Social Market Foundation proposes a flat 42 per cent duty for online wagers, which are currently charged at 21 per ent for casino games and 15 per cent for sports betting.
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Yikes, say JPMorgan analysts Estelle Weingrod and Karan Puri:
We view both these recommendations as excessive and detrimental to the overall regulated UK gaming market. Moves of such magnitude would not only lead to operators exiting the (unattractive) UK market, but would also lead to overall less favorable terms for the players as licensed operators will (i) offer less attractive pricing/odds and, and (ii) reduce their bonusing/promotions spend in order to preserve some level of profitability for their UK business. In return, this would drive players to the black market, which, to a large extent, defeats the purpose of having a regulated market in the first place, given inability to protect the players who choose to play with illegal offshore operators, especially at a time when the UK Gambling white paper was about to be finally implemented (expectations towards early ‘25). Also worth noting that generally, more stringent regulation typically offers the opportunity for scale operators to consolidate the industry further as small/sub-scale operators struggle to mitigate the adverse impact as effectively, eventually exiting the market.
Flutter, Entain and Evoke (formerly known as 888) are the bookmaker stocks most exposed to UK politics. Flutter takes 19 per cent of its revenue from the UK, nearly all of which is online. Entain’s 29 per cent UK by revenue, the small majority of which is from the Ladbrokes Coral estate. Evoke is 68 per cent UK by revenue, of which 39 per cent is online.
JPMorgan forecasts that for Flutter, doubling the remote gaming duty would knock 62 per cent off its UK online Ebitda. At a group level that cuts 2025 Ebitda by 18 per cent, it says.
Reduced advertising spend, worse odds for punters, shop closures and job losses might mitigate the effect, while the closure of small bookies should ultimately benefit the big ones. These mitigation measures can cut the annual Ebitda hit to 10 per cent for Flutter and 17 per cent for Entain, says Citi.
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Morgan Stanley’s numbers are similar:
Most analysts don’t bother running detailed forecasts, however, because they don’t see the point. Here’s Goodbody analyst David Brohan:
While it is clear the focus will now be on tax increases for the sector in the upcoming budget, we expect any increases to be moderate in line with the economic importance of the industry. The last tax increase in the UK was in 2019 when the rate of Remote Gaming Duty increased from 15% to 21%, and the UK tax rates are at the lower end of International peers. Our base case assumption is that sports betting duty is likely to remain unchanged (given the emotive issue of horse racing funding, and the challenges associated with increasing this duty). Remote Gaming Duty appears to be an easier target, however we would expect a much more moderate level of increase (3-5%) is a realistic expectation. In terms of impact to operators within our coverage, we estimate every 1% increase in Remote Gaming Duty to impact Adjusted EBITDA by 0.6% for Flutter, 0.7% for Entain, 1.6% for Evoke and 2% for Rank. These estimates are on a pre-mitigation basis with operators having several levers to pull including reduced promo/marketing to mitigate some of the impact.
It’s familiar territory. All the same arguments about protecting jobs and horseracing were aired after bumf accompanying the 2023 autumn statement mentioned a consultation on remote gaming taxes. Efforts to restrict UK fixed-odds betting terminals rumbled on for years and involved many of the same appeals to the greater good. More recently, French gambling stocks dropped on a report of duty reforms similar to these latest UK proposals that appears to have been quietly forgotten.
Gambling regulation does change, but the power of the lobby all-but-guarantees that it won’t change quickly or unexpectedly. And it plays straight into the industry’s interests when every suggestion for reform can be framed from the off as an existential threat.
However, hardly half (13%) have actually contacted a mediator, according to US-based specialists who conducted a recent study monitoring the trend.
Less than one in twenty persons in the UK, according to research, genuinely have the illness, which is defined by impulsivity, hyperactivity, and difficulties concentrating. They said that these numbers sparked worries that there may be undetected health issues causing comparable symptoms.
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