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Family offices double down on real estate

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Family offices double down on real estate

Despite uncertainty hanging over real estate, the asset class continues to feature prominently in portfolios of wealthy families, with sustainability becoming an added attraction.

With its attractive mix of stable income, long-term capital appreciation and diversification against market volatility, real estate has historically represented a large allocation for wealthy investors. Ultra-high net worth families feel comfortable with this tangible, ‘bricks and mortar’ asset, well suited to their multi-generational investment horizons.

While many invest in funds for diversification purposes, direct ownership of properties remains the most popular way for the wealthy to invest, as it allows them full control over management and leverage.

Family offices (FOs) have access to patient capital and tend to bring in entrepreneurial spirit to investing. As such, they have a fairly high allocation to alternatives, including real estate,” says Maximilian Kunkel, CIO, global family and institutional wealth, UBS Global Wealth Management.

Within a typical allocation of 40 per cent or more to alternatives, real estate represents 10 per cent of portfolios, he says, referencing the global bank’s latest study on family offices.

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“Family offices like real estate for its yield and perceived price stability in inflation-adjusted terms, especially given absence of frequent mark-to-market swings and because of its long-term uptrend,” explains Mr Kunkel.

There is also an “emotional value” associated with real estate, especially relating to prime location properties. “A real asset, which you can touch and feel, has a very different value within the context of a portfolio; it is not just an asset with an ISIN number attached to it,” he says.

But with the malaise that hangs over the real estate market today, will the asset class continue to appeal to wealthy investors and their family offices?

“Family offices like real estate for its yield and perceived price stability in inflation-adjusted terms, especially given absence of frequent mark-to-market swings and because of its long-term uptrend,” says Maximilian Kunkel from UBS Global Wealth Management

Sold out

The Fed’s period of rapid interest rate hiking during 2022-2023, to tame persistently high inflation, is judged to have badly hit the real estate market, which is highly dependent on leverage.

As a result, there has been a “material drop” in allocation to real estate in FO portfolios, from 14 to 10 per cent between 2019 and 2023, according to UBS.

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“It is not that FOs have significantly sold out of real estate, but they’ve put less of the marginal dollar into real estate and more into other alternatives – especially more liquid alternatives – providing stability and yield, such as fixed income,” explains Mr Kunkel.

As the rate cutting cycle in the developed world begins to take effect, the trend is likely to move in the other direction, with FOs expecting to increase allocation by a couple of percentage points during 2024, according to the bank’s study.

FOs are also increasingly opting for funds which diversify real estate portfolios geographically, against a backdrop of increased geopolitical risk (see chart). When owning it directly, wealthy families traditionally focus on local real estate, because of their perceived better understanding of local market dynamics, as well as access to opportunities and capital through established sources of funding, adds Mr Kunkel.

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While the fastest rise of interest rates since the 1980s has proved a major headwind against real estate, significantly driving down supply, it has not had a major impact on families’ allocation trends, according to JP Morgan Private Bank. Today, 77 per cent of JP Morgan’s FO clients have an allocation to real estate, accounting for 14 per cent of portfolios on average.

“I tend to think of our community globally as a strategic asset allocator, where wealthiest families can lock away their money for a very long period,” says Thomas Kennedy, the bank’s chief investment strategist.

While real estate allocations have changed little, there is a clear shift in types of assets owned. “Rotating away from areas like offices and into data centres has been the trade so far this year,” says Mr Kennedy. Most of clients’ real estate investments are through funds. Reits (real estate investment trusts), which can be bought and sold like stocks, are also popular.

Rising data centres

Some funds selected for clients allocate more than 20 per cent to data centres, versus 8 per cent for the listed market. These physical facilities storing digital data and computing infrastructure are developed for the economy of tomorrow, with AI poised to drive a 160 per cent increase in data centre power demand by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs.

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Rising prices are driven by big demand supply imbalance. While it takes three to five years to build a data centre, most data centres in production are already pre-leased, according to CBRE.

“The biggest risk for data centres is that AI is a fad and will not add productivity to the economy,” says Mr Kennedy. Also, the ability for AI to work relies on “a massive infrastructure bill, both in the US and across the world”, which may not materialise.

Data centres, and industrial real estate in general, including industrial and logistics buildings for online shopping, represent the biggest allocation in real estate investments, together with residential and retail, because of consistent income and price appreciation, he says.

Trends for residential, especially multi-family, buildings are driven by demographic and macro-dynamics, with the highest immigration flows in the US since the early 1990s fuelling new home demand

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While retail has “held up well”, despite the rise of e-commerce, demand for office space is “crashing” because of increased work from home activity since the Covid-19 pandemic.

In this environment, diversification is crucial.

“Never in history have you seen dispersion like this in valuation of different parts of real estate,” says Mr Kennedy. “From the global financial crisis to Covid, with ultra-low interest rates, all assets would go up and investors could buy a buy a real estate fund and don’t worry about it. Now, as winners get separated from losers, you do need to be selective.”

Lending against real estate is also a boon for the rich. “Real estate is an asset clients can wedge as collateral, consistently through time. While it is not the primary rationale for why the wealthy are buying real estate, it is certainly part of the combo,” he says. Banks’ lending activity – closed for two years – is now slowly reopening as rates have come down.

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Entry route

A key reason why private capital and wealthy individuals favour real estate investment is because through management they can affect performance, says Liam Bailey, head of global research at Knight Frank, the London-headquartered global real estate consultancy and estate agency.

For many families “an entry route into direct property ownership” is acquisition of the building to host their family office, where extra space is rented out. But to achieve diversification through direct ownership, families need “deep pockets”, as real estate is relatively illiquid compared to other financial assets and involves huge investment, he says.

“Investors are looking for opportunities everywhere. But there is still probably a bias towards bigger, more liquid markets, such as London or Manhattan. Investors pay a premium for entering but liquidity is high, which means investors can time their exit relatively well.”

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Cash is king

While data centres are today’s most popular assets, there is a limited stock of properties that can host them, for which there is rent premium. As a result, investors end up gaining exposure to traditional sectors, including the office market, says Mr Bailey.

Contrary to the 1980s and 1990s’ trend towards business parks in suburban areas, the rise of hybrid working post-Covid has accelerated companies’ demand for high quality buildings in cities’ central business districts. Demand for secondary offices has dramatically fallen.

“Companies want to occupy buildings that encourage workers to come into the office and attract new talent,” so offices need to be in the centre of big world cities, where they can have networking spaces or events, says Mr Bailey. “The competition for best-in-class offices has never been higher. Rents have risen as a result.”

Distressed commercial real estate, and offices in particular, may represent interesting opportunities to wealthy families, with strong cash reserves, says Steven Saltzstein, CEO, Force Family Office, the largest US family office network. “In difficult times, in areas like commercial real estate, cash is king and wealthy families can swoop up and grab bargains, which other folks don’t have means to buy.”

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“The challenge is to turn commercial buildings into residential,” he says. “Floor plates are not conducive to that, and often it is better to tear buildings down and rebuild them.”

Tax advantages

Many families are putting allocations “on pause”, awaiting more certainty in the environment, notes Paul Karger, co-founder and managing partner at US-based multi-family office TwinFocus Capital Partners.

“With real estate, as with private equity, you make all your money on the buy,” he says. “If you buy something too expensive, you’ve got to hope and pray it’s going to get more expensive, so it’s better to buy something cheap.”

“The real estate market is frozen right now,” he says. Negative leverage is hurting returns, which is paralysing asset managers’ activity. Right now, “the whole real estate world is hinged on lower rates, and hoping and praying rates go down”.

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Yet, real estate makes “a lot of sense” for wealthy families. “We love real estate, especially for US taxable investors. There’s a lot of tax advantages for families owning real estate,” says Mr Karger.

The ultra-prime, ultra-luxury segment of the market was left relatively unscathed from the rapid interest rate hikes of the past two years, states Georgina Atkinson, managing partner of Dubai-headquartered advisory firm, Origin. “Our clients don’t leverage, so they’re not impacted by interest rates. In New York, 80 per cent of our buyers are cash buyers,” explains Ms Atkinson.

Ultra-wealthy families focus on markets around the world – offering capital preservation for future generations – including London, New York, Los Angeles and Miami, she says. Families buy to rent, or buy as a second home, or they may purchase properties for children studying abroad, with a specific “checklist in terms of requirements”, including safety, security, access, as well as education, green space and facilities.

A key trend she sees is a “huge increase in female investors wanting to invest into prime real estate around the world, to diversify their portfolio and protect their wealth”. This is a break from the past when real estate was male-dominated.

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“Our clients don’t leverage, so they’re not impacted by interest rates. In New York, 80 per cent of our buyers are cash buyers,” says Georgina Atkinson from Origin

Building back greener

Wellness and sustainability have become “huge themes” for developers and clients. More and more features are being incorporated into new developments around the world, including health clubs and six-star medical facilities. “Health and wellness have played a huge part in new developments, particularly since the pandemic, and will continue to do so,” explains Ms Atkinson. These types of developments, promoting “a holistic and balanced lifestyle”, command a price premium, which clients are willing to pay.

Real estate can make significant contribution towards decarbonisation and provide attractive returns too. The ‘green premium’ is prominent in offices and industrials. Thirty-six per cent of Europe’s greenhouse gasses come from the built environment, according to Fidelity International.

While the US regulatory push is less obvious, in Europe the trend towards green buildings is driven by policy and planning, both at EU level with the European Green Deal, and at individual government level.

Another structural driver is increased demand for operationally net zero carbon buildings, to meet companies’ ambitious net zero carbon goals, explains Kim Politzer, director of research, European real estate, Fidelity International. Almost 40 per cent of firms have set a 2030 goal for net zero carbon, according to CBRE, but only 1 per cent of building stock is being refurbished or redeveloped every year.

The “significant shortfall in the run up to 2030 in buildings that meet occupiers’ requirements” means supply/demand imbalance is set to produce “very attractive returns, and a significant green premium”, says Ms Politzer.

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Demand for buildings meeting “highest green standards” also from increased focus on sustainable investment returns.

“Now is a very attractive point to be entering the market and acquiring buildings for this ‘brown to green’ transition, particularly given we have seen about a 25 per cent hit on property values over the last two years because of interest rate increases,” she says.

“Sustainability is top of mind for families,” states Force Family Office’s Mr Saltzstein. “They want to make sure their real estate investment is sustainable, good for the environment and society, and they can pass it on to the next generation, as something to be proud of.”

This article is from the FT Wealth Management hub

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Portugal’s bold plan to win back youth

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Young people are a nation’s greatest asset. As societies grow older, youth are relied upon to enter work, pay taxes and rear the next generation. But in an international labour market, talent retention is hard work for governments let alone businesses.

In the EU’s single market, it is particularly cut-throat. Many southern and eastern European economies — including Portugal, Italy, Poland and Romania — often see their youngest and most educated up sticks for the bloc’s more prosperous, and higher paying, northern economies. Plenty have not returned, hollowing out economies back home. The brain drain is, according to former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta, the “dark side” of the EU’s freedom of movement.

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Last week, Portugal decided to take matters into its own hands. The minority government of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro unveiled an imaginative budget proposal to turn the country into a low-tax haven for young adults, offering a decade of tax breaks to those starting their careers. Under the plan, those aged 35 and under who earn up to €28,000 would pay no income tax for the first year. Tax relief would then be tapered over the next 10 years. Foreigners would also be able to benefit.

There is a consensus in Lisbon that drastic action is warranted. Between 2008 and 2023, an estimated 361,000 people aged between 15 and 35 left the country, accounting for two-thirds of all emigrants during that period. Portugal is not the first to consider age-based financial incentives to arrest a brain drain. In 2019, Poland cut income tax for workers under the age of 26. Italy had a tax reduction scheme for returning employees and the self-employed. In 2015, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán even tried to lure young Hungarians back with free flights and a monthly stipend.

There is a logic to providing reliefs to cash-strapped, ambitious youngsters starting their careers. The transition from education to work is a costly one, particularly for those from poorer households. Portugal’s proposal sends a clear signal to young people that it is thinking boldly to persuade them to stay. But whether financial incentives actually make a significant difference in retaining or attracting talent is unclear. The IMF warned Portugal that the impact of preferential tax rates on emigration is “uncertain”.

Tax is just one of many factors young people consider when deciding where to live. The range of well-paying job opportunities and professional networks in Brussels, Berlin and Paris, for example, is a big draw. Portugal, by contrast, has a long way to go to diversify its industrial base beyond tourism and spur more job creation. Its youth unemployment rate is over 5 percentage points higher than the EU average. Workers also consider housing costs, child care support and public amenities when deciding where to set up. That is something the government needs to consider with its tax proposal, which is estimated to cost about €650mn a year.

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Expats will want to see more evidence that Portugal’s long-term prospects are improving, particularly as they could be in for a hefty marginal tax rise when the proposed reliefs disappear in their thirties. That means initiatives to cut red tape, incentivise investment and raise Portugal’s burgeoning status as a hub for entrepreneurs are just as important.

Portugal’s plan, if it does pass through parliament, may jolt other European nations into bolder actions. The problem is that tax perks can only go so far when other countries are dangling their own carrots. Countries need to address a whole range of factors in their business environment if they want to win the race for talent.

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Flutterwave and the Future of Fintech – Finance Monthly

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Financial technology is becoming increasingly crucial to modern life. It’s what drives the movement of digital money, allowing consumers to buy goods remotely and greasing the wheels of contemporary commerce. But it also sits in a precarious position. 

Fintech companies like Flutterwave, Africa’s most valuable tech startup, must balance the needs of data security against the opportunity costs of growing larger and developing new services. And they must do it in a rapidly changing environment. 

“Our growth has been customer-defined,” Flutterwave CEO and founder Olugbenga “GB” Agboola said on “The Flip” podcast. “Our expansion is always customer-driven. Where does the customer want us to be? We listen to customers a lot in Flutterwave. We have an extreme customer obsession in Flutterwave when it comes to what our customer wants and how to deliver to the customer.”

What Does Fintech Do?

People often fall into one of two camps: the kind who never think about money, and the kind who always think about the bottom line. But even those who obsess over their bank balances don’t often consider what actually happens when they make a purchase or transfer money from one account to another.

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Behind every swipe of a credit card, click of a “checkout now” button, and direct deposit, millions of micro-actions are taking place. Fintech is what communicates between banks, merchants, lending institutions, peer-to-peer transfer apps, and more. 

Financial technology began as a way to improve the efficiency of the pen-and-ink ledgers of days past. But it’s become much more than a digital balance sheet. Today, fintech powers automated investment technology, assists nonprofits with fundraising operations, revolutionizes how credit card companies do business, and has spurred new industries like microloans. 

In short, it’s how the modern economy does business and how it keeps score. 

Nearly every modern financial action, from mortgages to day care, is managed by financial technology. 

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And the revolution has just begun. 

How Flutterwave Grew

As one of the fintech sector’s most exciting startups, Flutterwave has played a crucial role in the modern financial economy. The 8-year-old, Flutterwave serves enterprise clients like Microsoft and Uber, as well as individuals seeking to easily pay for goods and services, send money to friends and family, and cover out-of-country tuition costs. 

By serving both multinationals and everyday people, the company has become a service provider on both ends of the modern economy, giving it a unique perspective into how today’s business functions. 

Flutterwave is also unique in that it was comfortable using its understanding of the marketplace to dictate its growth, said Agboola. 

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“We helped Uber to scale across Africa and we follow them into every market that they were going to go into. So, our expansion and growth story can be linked to our customer requirements, and it can also be linked to our philosophy about making payments simpler across Africa and simplifying payments for endless possibilities,” he said on “The Flip.”

“For us as a company, it’s really just about: How do we make sure our customers can scale on our platform? How do we make sure our customers can go to a new country in Africa and all they have to do is just flip a switch, literally, on our dashboard and they can just go live in their new market?” he added. “Our expansion is always customer-driven. Where does the customer want us to be?”

How Flutterwave Prepares for the Future of Fintech

The focus on service — not growth — is what ultimately allowed Flutterwave to prosper amid a sea of rival service providers. Through Agboola’s leadership and partnerships with influential market leaders like Uber, the company navigated its way from promising startup to a Series D fundraise that resulted in a valuation north of $3 billion. 

Companies don’t get to that level by being lucky. It takes a certain amount of skill at understanding the present and predicting how the currents of today will shape the waves of the future. 

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For Flutterwave, the future of fintech will result in a more integrated, interconnected world. From the beginning, Agboola has claimed that his company’s goal was to connect the whole of Africa. Following that logic, it’s clear the future of fintech is complete market saturation, allowing every person across the globe access to the worldwide economy through their phones, laptops, or computers. 

But as they become ubiquitous, fintech platforms will change. Fintech could become more convenient for users, integrating directly into nonfinancial software. Social media users may be able to pay for products from content creators and advertisers directly through their favourite apps, and retail apps feature new services, such as buy now, pay later options at checkout.

There might also be a revolution in how traditional financial institutions, like banks and lenders, serve consumers. Digital payments and banking services could make all kinds of big-ticket purchases, like mortgages and car loans, simpler and faster for consumers.

The wealth of new data may lead to software that delivers personalized financial advice to consumers, allowing lenders or artificial intelligence to steer individuals toward smart investment strategies, better ways to save for education, and more.

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All of these new ideas are exciting, but none more so than what Flutterwave continues to train its focus on: the democratization of modern finance. 

As developing countries move into the digital world, their economies will undergo a tectonic shift. By empowering a new segment of the market, Flutterwave will help create the next generation of marketplaces by helping to provide fintech services to entire niches that have been excluded from the modern economy for decades. 

Transforming small communities can have profound downstream effects that will ripple outward to the entire world economy, according to Agboola. 

“We are an enabler,” he said. “We may not go directly to help reduce poverty, but we are going to enable businesses that help to reduce poverty.”

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Delta Air Lines plans Los Angeles-Shanghai return

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Delta Air Lines plans Los Angeles-Shanghai return

The relaunch has been postponed several times but is now set for next June

Continue reading Delta Air Lines plans Los Angeles-Shanghai return at Business Traveller.

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India withdraws diplomats from Canada in dispute over killing of Sikh activist

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Sanjay Kumar Verma, India’s high commissioner to Canada

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India is withdrawing its high commissioner and five other diplomats from Canada, citing fears for their safety, hours after claiming they had been targeted in the murder case of an exiled Sikh separatist.

Canadian officials are probing what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last year claimed were “credible allegations” of Indian government involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist who was shot dead in a suburb of Vancouver in June 2023.

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On Monday, New Delhi said in a statement that it had received a “diplomatic communication” from Ottawa suggesting that high commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma and other diplomats were “persons of interest” in an investigation, escalating an already acute diplomatic rift between the two countries.

It later specified that five diplomats would be withdrawn in addition to Verma.

On Monday evening, India’s ministry of external affairs said it had summoned Canada’s chargé d’affaires over the “baseless targeting” of Verma and other diplomats, which it described as “completely unacceptable”.

“It was underlined that in an atmosphere of extremism and violence, the Trudeau government’s actions endangered their safety,” India’s foreign ministry said. “We have no faith in the current Canadian government’s commitment to ensure their security.”

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“Therefore, the government of India has decided to withdraw the High Commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials.” New Delhi said it also reserved the right to take “further steps” in response to what it called “the Trudeau government’s support for extremism, violence and separatism against India”.

Trudeau created an uproar in India last year when he said Canada was investigating “credible allegations” that Indian agents might have been behind the assassination of Nijjar, a supporter of the creation of an independent “Khalistan” in the Punjab region, which is split between India and Pakistan.

Sanjay Kumar Verma, India’s high commissioner to Canada
Sanjay Kumar Verma, India’s high commissioner to Canada

The accusations, combined with a US criminal case brought against suspects in an alleged murder plot against Gurpatwant Pannun Singh, a US-Canadian Sikh separatist, shone light on allegations of alleged official targeting of diaspora activists India considers terrorists. India has rejected allegations of government involvement in Nijjar’s killing and the attempt on Pannun’s life. 

Canadian authorities in May arrested and charged three Indian nationals with Nijjar’s shooting. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police said at the time that it was investigating whether there were any ties to the government of India, adding that others might have been involved in the killing. 

“The government of Canada has done what India has long been asking for, and Canada has provided credible, irrefutable evidence of ties between agents of the government of India and a murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil,” Stewart Wheeler, Canada’s deputy high commissioner, told reporters in New Delhi on Monday evening.

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“Now it’s time for India to do what it said it would do and look into those allegations,” he added.

Earlier on Monday, India rejected what it said were “preposterous” and “ludicrous” allegations against its diplomats, and attacked Trudeau personally. “His Cabinet has included individuals who have openly associated with an extremist and separatist agenda regarding India,” the ministry of external affairs said. Verma could not immediately be reached for comment.

The diplomatic dispute over Nijjar’s killing has brought relations between India and Canada to a low point, with India expelling most Canadian diplomats and temporarily suspending visa services last year. 

Indian officials have accused the Trudeau government of pandering to Sikh voters with views New Delhi considers extreme, in what it called on Monday “vote bank politics”.

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Chris Budd: The client’s control problem

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Chris Budd: The client's control problem
EMAP Chris Budd Sketch
Chris Budd – Illustration by Dan Murrell

There is a word I have been thinking about a lot recently, particularly in the context of its effect on our wellbeing. That word is: control.

Sam Wren-Lewis holds a PhD in the philosophy of happiness and has written an academic, but very readable, book called The Happiness Problem.

He observes that we tend to take two different approaches to happiness: control or acceptance.

This is not binary, but rather a sliding scale, and we might use each approach for different circumstances.

So, how does our need (or lack of need) to have control affect our financial decisions?

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Control

Wanting to have control is fine when it is possible. We see something we don’t like and we try to change it. This can be a very positive thing – see some litter on the road, pick it up, put it in the bin.

However, if we want control where it is unavailable to us, this can make us unhappy. Maybe we see something on the news which makes us angry but which we cannot influence. Wren-Lewis calls this going to “war with reality”.

We can see this all around us. Social media, for example, is full of people who are angry because things have changed in a way they don’t like but can do nothing about.

Acceptance

The alternative is to accept things as they are. This is simple – but can be very hard to do.

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We see this principle in many religions. A central tenet of Buddhism, for example, is that suffering occurs when change has occurred, but we still want things as they were. Everything changes all the time – if we refuse to accept that change, then we will be unhappy.

Of course, there are times when not accepting change is the right thing to do. Choosing when to join a protest march or when to pick up that litter, and when to recognise the change is going to happen whether you disagree with it or not, is a significant factor in our wellbeing.

Financial planning

If we accept the objective of financial planning should be to help people be happier, then this principle of control and acceptance has a major implication.

We are not being judgmental here – if somebody likes to be in control and they are able to be in control, and that is doing good, then all is well.

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But what if someone wants to be in control of something when they cannot be?

Wanting to have control is fine when it is possible. We see something we don’t like and we try to change it

Suppose you recognise a client has a particularly strong desire to be in control. Perhaps they are a business owner who likes to be very hands-on in their management style.

A financial plan with a fixed retirement date, or the looming prospect of the sale of their business, may look to that person like the beginning of a time when they will not be in control of their lives. This could lead to a failure to engage and make them unhappy.

In this instance, how might you respond? One solution is to explore what might replace the thing they will be losing. Many people approach the selling of a business or retiring with little thought as to what life will look like beyond.

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The answer comes in helping a client find the right thing for them to get involved with

Planners will typically help their client with this process. Perhaps the client could join a school governing body or become a trustee of a charity. This goes far beyond ‘keeping busy’ – it gives them purpose and can provide them with their need for control.

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That said, this can create disharmony. Being a school governor is not like running a business. It requires different skills and knowledge. There are many examples of people who make things worse with their desire to be in control and do things their way.

The answer comes in helping a client find the right thing for them to get involved with. This means something that will bring them wellbeing – both in terms of giving them a sense of purpose but also to effect change in a positive way.

This means asking some simple questions, such as: “What does a happy retirement look like for you?”, then: “When you have that, what will that give you?”.

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Chris Budd’s new book, The Four Cornerstones of Financial Wellbeing, is out now. Financial Wellbeing Pulse is a way of measuring the relationship with money and demonstrating the impact of your advice

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Don’t bet on a taxing outcome for UK gambling companies

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Line chart of Share prices rebased showing Investors placed bets on higher gambling taxes

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With the UK government trying to plug a £22bn fiscal hole, investors figured it was worth taking a punt on higher gambling taxes. Shares in Flutter, Entain and Evoke fell as much as 14 per cent early on Monday morning on reports of a £3bn raid on bookies.

Think-tanks have provided grist to this mill: vice taxes carry a social as well as financial benefit, they argue. Doubling duty on online casinos alone could bring in £900mn, says the Social Market Foundation. That is a quarter of this year’s estimated duties, levied on gross profits or total stakes, of £3.6bn.

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Though government figures downplayed the idea of a tax raid, this looks to be an opportunity for a decent haul without raising mass hackles. It is easier to target a contentious sector. A lightly staffed online sector means reduced risk of job cuts. The UK, already a low taxer by international standards, would be following Sweden, which has raised gambling taxes, and the Netherlands, which will do so from January. 

Line chart of Share prices rebased showing Investors placed bets on higher gambling taxes

Still, there would be an outsized blow to the industry. UK-related operating margins stand at about 20 per cent. A few big participants have fatter margins (Flutter’s ebitda margin is about 30 per cent for UK and Ireland) but plenty fall below that. Taxes at the rates proposed by IPPR — 50 per cent for online operators and a doubling to 30 per cent for high street bookies — would essentially wipe out profitability.  

Operators cannot simply pass these on to customers: this is no penny added to a can of full-sugar soda. True, bookies can offer poorer odds. But in a competitive and largely undifferentiated industry, this would be tough unless the companies moved in lockstep. 

There would be other ramifications. Companies might seek savings by cutting back on sponsorships and advertising budgets. Online gambling generates about £1.4bn of marketing spend, says Regulus Partners, a consultancy. Poorer odds could also drive gamblers into the so-called black market. Customers already stake an annual £2.7bn here a year, reckons the Betting and Gaming Council, equivalent to 2 per cent of the £128bn in Britain’s regulated market.

Nearly £15bn of that is placed by customers who also use black market operators and who may be minded to switch more activity over. Fears that money would flow from the regulated sector (denting the Treasury’s take) has long deterred action against the industry.

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The knee-jerk share price moves were an overreaction. Last year, for example, Flutter derived three-quarters of its revenue outside the UK and Ireland. But those reflected nerves about an unpopular sector, still on the watchlist of regulators and governments.

louise.lucas@ft.com

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