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Thailand’s Path Forward: Can Productivism Cure the Sick Man of Asia?

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Thailand's Path Forward: Can Productivism Cure the Sick Man of Asia?
  • Thailand’s sluggish growth, rising poverty, and widening inequality signal that its export- and foreign-investment-dependent economic model has run its course. Despite 2.9% GDP growth in 2024, poverty rates increased, exposing a structural failure to distribute gains broadly or build domestic economic capabilities.
  • The authors propose “Productivism,” a framework developed by economist Dani Rodrik, as an alternative path. It emphasizes raising productivity, creating quality jobs, strengthening SMEs, and extending industrial policy to services. It calls for collaborative, evidence-based state engagement rather than top-down planning or passive reliance on market incentives.

In the early 1990s, Thailand was tipped to be the region’s next economic tiger. Today, it risks being seen as the “sick man of Asia.”

The matter is not just about slower growth. It reflects a deeper policy problem: an economy clinging to an old playbook while the global economy has entered a complicated era marked by geopolitical tensions and structural limits.

The Thai economy, dependent on manufacturing exports and foreign investment, is now facing a truth hard to accept: the old growth model can no longer push the country towards high-income status or better living standards.

If Thailand wants to shake off its decline, it needs not only new measures but also changes in perspective on economic development as a whole.

The old model was built on low-cost labour, foreign direct investment, and large-scale infrastructure such as the Eastern Seaboard. It expanded production quickly and delivered strong growth in the past.

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But over time, returns have been diminishing. Foreign investment still flows in, yet much of it sits in low value-added activities. Links with Thai firms remain thin. The state gives up tax revenue through incentives but gains little in creating new economic capabilities domestically. Under this model, Thailand’s growth has lagged behind regional peers such as Vietnam and Indonesia for much of the past decade, reflecting deeper structural weaknesses.

At the same time, inequality is widening.

Headline GDP figures hide the strain beneath. In 2024, the economy grew by 2.9%. Income per head rose to 266,103 baht a year. Yet poverty increased, from 3.41% to 4.89%.

Growth, in other words, does not distribute its benefits equitably.

That is why the real question is not only how to grow faster, but also how to make growth work for more people.

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What is missing is not just new policies, but a new organising framework for economic development. One promising approach is “Productivism”, a concept advanced by Dani Rodrik, a renowned scholar of Harvard Kennedy School. The idea is simple in principle, demanding in practice: build an economy that creates good jobs, expands the middle class, and lifts domestic firms.

This requires a proactive state to work alongside business and civil society to drive investment, skill development, innovation, and production, so that growth generates economic opportunities more broadly.

The core of productivism is a focus on the supply side to raise productivity and create good jobs directly, rather than relying on the economy to respond to market incentives and hoping that benefits will automatically trickle down in time.

Instead, it calls for deliberate structural change. Economic policy must help workers, money, and investment move into businesses that create higher value — especially SMEs that employ much of the country’s labour.

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Meanwhile, economic growth should not be limited to manufacturing. Technology and automation have reduced manufacturing’s power as a mass employer. For the economy to create good jobs on a wide scale, industrial policy must extend to services as well.

Productivism is not a return to the developmental state model. It does not romanticise the state’s ability, recognizing the state’s limits, especially in developing countries where capacity and information are often constrained. It is not a top-down planning or the old idea of governments “picking winners,” but a shift to a more collaborative and more experimental approach that supports ongoing adjustments.

In practice, policies should be shaped through engagement with firms and other stakeholders. Learning should come from real constraints on the ground, not abstract models. By employing knowledge and experiences from a broader spectrum of the economy, not limited to state orders, adjustment of goals and tools can respond to real needs in time to raise productivity.

This approach is particularly relevant for Thailand, where firm capabilities and domestic linkages remain the binding constraint, rather than capital accumulation alone. This means rethinking industrial policy in several practical terms.

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First of all, the focus should be on upgrading firms. Policies should be more targeted, tailored to the needs and potential of different groups, rather than broad schemes with limited structural impact. The aim is clear: to create better jobs, in both manufacturing and services.

The problem has never been a lack of foreign investment. It is the assumption that local supply chains will form automatically. They often do not.

In sectors such as High-Density Interconnect (HDI) Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) or Electric Vehicles, we still face problems in skills, standards, and specialised services. Without intervention, the supply chain linkages will stay weak.

The state, therefore, must step up to build close links between foreign investment and local businesses. It should help build domestic suppliers, support joint research, and upskill labour in concrete ways.

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It must also go beyond usual tax incentive measures. What firms, especially SMEs, need is practical government support in areas such as technology extension, standards compliance, skills intermediation, and affordable advisory services. These measures will help SMEs upgrade without having to spend a fortune on consultancy firms.

Coordination is just as critical.

Industrial development cuts across investment, education, research, regulation, and market access. It involves numerous state agencies, but the silos currently observed stall progress. Thailand does not suffer from a lack of committees. It suffers from a lack of problem-solving institutions.

High-level committees on national economic strategies cannot tackle this bottleneck. What is needed is clear leadership in each sector, with real authority to align efforts across state organisations. There must be operational working groups to bring together government, business, and academia to solve problems, track progress, and adjust policies in real time.

To address these challenges, robust metrics matter too. Productivity, domestic linkages, and job quality must be measured and monitored together through reliable indicators and databases. The government cannot act just as a rule-maker. It needs effective indicators and databases to allow adjustments to implemented policies .

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Thailand has reached a point where our economic models and tools no longer deliver. Productivism offers a way to overcome current structural constraints that hold the economy back and to rebuild from within.

The label of “sick man of Asia” is not inevitable. Whether Thailand can reverse that trajectory will depend not simply on growth, but on its ability to build a growth model that raises productivity, creates good jobs, and spreads the gains more broadly across society.

Nopparuj Chindasombatcharoen, Ph.D. Is a research fellow and 
Kanlayanee Kaewmee is a researcher at t the Thailand Development and Research Institute (TDRI). Their policy analyses appear in the Bangkok Post on 1 July 2026

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Integrating building energy systems into regional power grids

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Integrating building energy systems into regional power grids
  • Southeast Asia’s electricity demand is projected to double by 2050, driven by industrialization, digitalization, and population growth, while nearly 80% of the region’s energy still relies on fossil fuels. ASEAN countries are pursuing regional cooperation to address energy security, affordability, and decarbonization goals.
  • Key initiatives include strengthening the ASEAN Power Grid to enable cross-border electricity trading and renewable integration, and exploring civilian nuclear energy as a stable, low-carbon complement to intermittent renewables. Coordinated planning and shared investment are central to building more resilient and efficient energy systems across the region.

Southeast Asia faces surging energy demand due to industrialization, digitalization, and population growth. To ensure secure, affordable, and sustainable energy, the region is prioritizing a more integrated power system. Key initiatives include strengthening the ASEAN Power Grid for electricity trading and renewable integration, and exploring nuclear energy as a stable, low-carbon option. Collaborative efforts, facilitated by shared learning and financing mechanisms, are crucial for building resilient energy systems and achieving net-zero ambitions, showcasing a pragmatic approach to the energy transition in the Global South.

  • Across Southeast Asia, energy demand is being driven by industrialization, digital expansion and population growth.
  • Meeting rapidly growing demand while keeping energy secure, affordable and sustainable will require a more integrated power system.
  • Countries in the region have already started to develop and collaborate on projects focussed on grid integration and nuclear energy.

Electricity demand across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is projected to double by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency, fuelled by rapid industrialization, digital expansion and fast-growing cities. But nearly 80% of the region’s energy still comes from fossil fuels, leaving economies exposed to volatile prices, supply disruptions and rising emissions.

Like many parts of the Global South, ASEAN must now work out how to meet this soaring demand while keeping energy affordable, reliable and aligned with net-zero ambitions. The answer lies in cooperation, not competition.

In an era of geopolitical uncertainty and fragmented institutions, ASEAN offers a counter-narrative: that regional cooperation still works. Collective action may take longer to align, but it delivers more scalable, resilient and impactful outcomes than isolated national strategies.

And as renewables scale, data-driven industries expand and transport electrifies, ASEAN energy systems are becoming far more interconnected and complex – making the case for a shared regional approach even stronger.

Setting ASEAN’s energy integration agenda

Meeting ASEAN’s rapidly growing energy demand while keeping power secure, affordable and sustainable requires deep regional cooperation and a more integrated power system. No single country can meet these needs alone – coordinated planning, shared investment and cross-border interconnection will be essential.

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First, the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) links national power networks, enabling countries to trade electricity and integrate more renewable energy across borders. As demand grows, especially from data centres and energy-intensive industries, shared grids improve reliability and reduce the need for each country to build redundant infrastructure.

Second, the Civilian Nuclear Energy framework is exploring the role of nuclear power as a stable, low-carbon complement to intermittent renewables. Nuclear energy is gaining interest interest in ASEAN as a long-term solution for energy security, affordability and deep decarbonization. For countries that choose to explore it, regional dialogue helps ensure approaches are safe, coordinated, and aligned with global standards.

Together, these initiatives show how collective action and regional trust can make energy systems more secure, efficient and sustainable, reducing the risks and costs borne by individual nations.

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City or Perth backs $240m St Martins Centre revamp

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City or Perth backs $240m St Martins Centre revamp

A redevelopment of St Martins Centre has been recommended for approval after the City of Perth backed the $240 million proposal.

The Metro Inner North Development Assessment Panel is scheduled to decide on St Martins Properties’ plan for the asset at 40-50 St Georges Terrace, at a meeting next week.

Kuwaiti government-owned St Martins Properties proposes to convert the three skyscrapers known as St Martins Centre into a 240-room hotel, with office and retail space.

In its report to the panel, the City of Perth recommended the application be approved subject to conditions including a four-year timeframe to substantially start construction.

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“The proposed partial demolition and adaptive reuse of the existing buildings across the site for new and refurbished office, hotel and amenities, dining and retail uses will contribute to activation of the immediate locality especially St Georges Terrace and the Hay Street Mall on the weekends and nighttime,” the report read.

St Martins Centre is believed to be Perth CBD’s single largest landholding, comprising three office towers at 40, 44, and 50 St Georges Terrace, the arcade facing Hay Street mall and heritage assets, the McNess Royal Arcade and Bridal House.

The office towers are 13-storey, 14-storey and 34-storey high, with the tallest known as St Martins tower.

“The proposed adaptive reuse of the existing buildings including the McNess Royal Arcade and Bridal House will positively increase levels of activity and interest in the locality and add to the built form environment, which includes a number of recently conserved heritage listed properties, and positive sustainability benefits in the city,” the city’s report read.

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“The design has been well considered, is of high quality and will positively contribute to the existing built form in the locality.”

The Kuwait government put the asset on the market but a sale to Melbourne-based Quintessential Equity fell through in 2023.

Former St Martins Centre anchor tenants that have recently relocated include Calibre, KordaMentha, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

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The proposed redevelopment of St Martins Centre was designed by architecture firm Woods Bagot, with details unveiled earlier this year.

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Baskin Financial Q2 2026 Newsletter

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Baskin Financial Q2 2026 Newsletter

Baskin Financial Q2 2026 Newsletter

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GameStop Stock Ticks Higher as Ryan Cohen Presses Aggressively On With Rejected $125-a-Share eBay Bid

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GameStop stock graph is seen in front of the company's logo

GameStop shares rose 0.83% Monday morning, trading at $21.86, as investors continued to weigh the video game retailer’s unusual pivot toward e-commerce ambitions, highlighted by Chief Executive Ryan Cohen’s continued pursuit of an unsolicited $125-per-share acquisition offer for eBay that the online marketplace’s board has already publicly rejected.

Monday’s modest gain came after a volatile stretch for GameStop shares, which remain closer to their 52-week low of $19.93 than their high of $28.10. The stock has traded within a range of roughly $21.66 to $22.02 over the past several sessions, moving on relatively light volume compared with the company’s average daily trading activity of around 4 million shares.

Much of the recent movement in GameStop’s stock has centered on the company’s continued pursuit of eBay. On May 3, GameStop delivered a non-binding proposal to eBay’s board of directors to acquire all outstanding shares it does not already own for $125 apiece, to be paid through a combination of cash and GameStop common stock, a deal reportedly valued at approximately $55.5 billion. Barchart reported that GameStop’s proposal followed the company’s earlier surprise announcement of interest in eBay, part of a broader strategy under Cohen to deploy the retailer’s substantial cash position toward transformative acquisitions well outside its traditional video game business. eBay’s board has already rejected the unsolicited offer, though Cohen has indicated plans to appeal directly to eBay shareholders in an effort to keep the pursuit alive, according to Yahoo Finance.

To support that continued push, GameStop stockholders approved a series of proposals at the company’s 2026 Annual Meeting, held July 7, including an amendment increasing the number of authorized shares of Class A common stock to 2.5 billion. The amendment passed with 68.7% of votes cast, according to a company statement, providing GameStop with additional flexibility to issue stock in connection with major strategic transactions, including a potential acquisition of eBay. Stockholders also re-elected all five director nominees at the meeting, with Cohen himself receiving the highest share of favorable votes among the nominees, and approved both an advisory vote on executive compensation and the ratification of the company’s independent auditor.

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GameStop’s position in eBay itself remains structured through a combination of direct share ownership and derivative contracts. The company directly owns roughly 4.3 million shares of eBay common stock and has entered into put/call option transactions providing economic exposure to an additional 39 million shares, agreements set to expire in February 2028. After GameStop satisfied a Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act condition on June 3, those option positions became eligible for physical settlement rather than remaining limited to cash settlement, though GameStop does not hold voting or dispositive power over the underlying shares unless and until that physical settlement actually occurs. According to CoinCentral, the combined direct and derivative positions give GameStop economic exposure to roughly 9.8% of eBay.

The July 7 annual meeting also resolved a separate point of controversy that had complicated GameStop’s broader corporate narrative in recent weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Cohen withdrew a proposed shareholder vote on his own performance-based pay package, an arrangement that involved 171.5 million stock options structured across nine tranches tied to market capitalization and EBITDA milestones, with a theoretical maximum payout that could have approached $35 billion if every target were met. The proposal had drawn scrutiny in part because critics argued that completing the eBay acquisition could itself help push GameStop toward the market cap and profitability thresholds required to unlock a portion of that reward, creating what some viewed as a potential conflict of interest tied directly to Cohen’s pursuit of the deal. A shareholder lawsuit had also sought to delay the July 7 vote on the compensation package entirely, accusing GameStop of a “bait-and-switch” through changed voting rules and an allegedly misleading proxy statement. By withdrawing the compensation proposal ahead of the vote, Cohen removed that specific controversy from consideration at the meeting.

Alongside its regulatory filings reaffirming the eBay pursuit, GameStop also raised its financial outlook for the year, projecting adjusted EBITDA above $600 million for fiscal 2026, nearly double the $345.4 million the company reported in fiscal 2025. That improved guidance came on the heels of a strong first-quarter report, in which GameStop posted net sales of $835.3 million, up 14% year over year from $732.4 million in the prior-year period, while selling, general and administrative expenses declined to $201.6 million from $228.1 million. The combination pushed operating income to a record first-quarter level of $143.3 million, with net income climbing to $389.6 million from $44.8 million a year earlier and adjusted earnings per share improving to 30 cents from 9 cents. GameStop’s balance sheet remained a particular point of strength, with cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaling approximately $8.4 billion and total liquidity near $9.7 billion, positioning the company well to fund a major acquisition should the eBay pursuit ultimately advance.

GameStop has also continued expanding beyond its traditional video game retail business in other ways, launching Power Packs, a digital trading card platform aimed at building out its presence in the broader collectibles market, and approving a new $2 billion share repurchase program extending through 2029. According to Yahoo Finance, collectibles have grown to represent 41.8% of GameStop’s first-quarter revenue, reflecting the company’s continued shift away from its historical reliance on physical video game sales, a trend reinforced by Sony’s recent announcement that it plans to end production of physical PlayStation game discs by 2028.

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Despite the improved financial results and the strategic ambition behind the eBay pursuit, Wall Street analysts have remained broadly skeptical of GameStop’s current valuation. The average analyst price target on the stock stands at $13.50, according to Barchart, implying substantial downside of more than 37% from recent trading levels, with Wedbush among the firms maintaining a particularly cautious stance on the shares. Traders Union analyst Viktoras Karapetjanc characterized the company’s authorized share increase as a fundamental shift that expands GameStop’s flexibility for major deals while simultaneously raising dilution risk for existing shareholders, noting persistent bearish technical momentum in the stock following recent support-level breakdowns. “Unless we see a decisive move above resistance, I expect sellers to stay in control in the short term,” Karapetjanc said, pointing to the $22.31 level on the Ichimoku Kijun indicator as a key technical threshold that would need to be cleared for any sustained recovery in the shares.

GameStop is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings on September 9, a date investors are likely to watch closely for further updates on both the company’s core retail performance and the ongoing status of its pursuit of eBay, a deal that remains far from certain given the target company’s public rejection of the initial offer and the substantial scale of the transaction relative to GameStop’s own market capitalization.

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Sensex falls 500 points, Nifty slips below 24,100 as US-Iran conflict escalates. What lies ahead?

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Sensex falls 500 points, Nifty slips below 24,100 as US-Iran conflict escalates. What lies ahead?
The Indian stock market traded lower on Tuesday, with Sensex and Nifty falling up to 0.6% as tensions in the Middle East escalated, driving up oil prices.

Sensex dropped more than 515 points to 77,096.34, while Nifty 50 dropped 146 points to 24,064 during Tuesday’s session. The broader market also edged lower, with Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices dropping up to 0.5%.

HCL Technologies, IndiGo, Bajaj Finance, L&T, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement, M&M, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank shares were the top losers on Sensex, falling 1-3%. Tata Steel, TCS and Infosys shares meanwhile rose nearly 1% each.

The downtrend comes as India VIX, which measures volatility in market, inched slightly higher to 13.39 on Tuesday morning. Nifty Financial Services was the worst hit, crashing 1%. Nifty IT, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and few other sectoral indices however were trading in the green with marginal gains. The overall market breadth was bearish, with NSE seeing 1,608 declines and 780 advances, while 139 stocks remained unchanged.

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US-Iran conflict escalates

The conflict between US and Iran continued to escalate further, after the former conducted fresh strikes against the latter. This came after Iranian forces struck a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz early on Sunday, before announcing closure of the critical waterway that accounted for 20% of daily global oil and gas supply shipments before the war.
Following the fresh strikes oil prices rose sharply higher, with Brent crude futures jumping around 2% to trade near $85 per barrel while WTI Crude futures rose to $80 per barrel.
Rupee weakens
As a result of the rising oil prices, rupee dropped past the 96 per dollar mark for the first ‌time since ⁠late ⁠May. The ⁠rupee fell nearly 0.5% to 96.0775, its weakest level since May 22. “The renewed escalation in US-Iran tensions also supported the US dollar, keeping pressure on emerging market currencies. Market participants will closely watch the upcoming US CPI inflation data, which could determine the next move in the Dollar Index and global currencies. FII flows will remain another key factor, as recent improvement in foreign inflows has helped cushion the rupee’s downside,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

What lies ahead?
There are some headwinds blowing again which might impact the Indian market in the near-term, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. He noted the escalation of tensions in the US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude to $84. If this spike continues it will again start impacting India’s macros, he added, saying the BoP vulnerability and the potential impact on the rupee can again become issues that may impact the market adversely.

“The spike in the U.S. 10-year yield to 4.61% is another concern which can impact FPI flows. India’s CPI inflation in June has increased to 4.38% and is likely to inch up higher.

Given these headwinds, investors have to exercise caution. In this fast changing geopolitical and economic environment, investment decision-making is becoming extremely challenging. Investors may watch this dynamic situation and wait for clarity to emerge, particularly on the crude price front,” according to Vijayakumar.

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Technical view on Nifty
Technically, the near-term outlook remains cautiously neutral, said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct. He noted that Nifty needs to reclaim and sustain above 24,100 to improve sentiment, with 24,400 emerging as the next resistance zone.

On the downside, the analyst saw 24,000 to act as the immediate support zone, while a breach could trigger further weakness toward 23,900. A moderation in crude prices would be the key catalyst for a stronger market recovery, he said.

(With inputs from agencies)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Fremantle port operator Patrick Terminals electrifies truck fleet

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Fremantle port operator Patrick Terminals electrifies truck fleet

Container terminal operator Patrick Terminals will use electric trucks at its Fremantle operations after a trial found cost cuts and emission reductions.

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Treasurer freezes rights of China-linked shareholders

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Treasurer freezes rights of China-linked shareholders

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has handed down interim orders freezing the shareholder rights of three China-linked parties in rare earths developer Northern Minerals.

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Genesis buys ‘global relevance’ in $5.6b deal: Finlayson

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Genesis buys ‘global relevance’ in $5.6b deal: Finlayson

Genesis Minerals executive chairman Raleigh Finlayson says his company’s acquisition of Vault Minerals will make it a globally relevant goldminer.

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Trump Says US Will Become ‘Guardian’ of Vital Strait of Hormuz and Expects Payment Amid Iran Standoff

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Nike shares fell as it signaled a turnaround from a rocky period would take time

President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States would likely take over control of the Strait of Hormuz and expects to be compensated for guarding the vital oil shipping route, as Washington and Tehran continued to assert competing claims over the waterway following a fresh weekend exchange of strikes.

“We’re going to keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it,” Trump said in a phone interview on Fox News’ “Fox & Friends.” “We’ll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we’ll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that.” Trump argued the arrangement would mark a departure from decades of unpaid U.S. involvement in securing the corridor. “We guarded the strait for 50 years, and we never got paid for it,” he said. “We guarded it for nothing.”

Trump indicated he expected other nations benefiting from secured passage through the strait to help cover the cost. “When we do that we’re going to be reimbursed because the other nations are very wealthy, they’re on our side, and we can’t be expected to do that for nothing unlike we had for many years,” he said, adding later in the interview, “We’re going to guard it. We’re going to get paid for guarding it — a lot of money.” Trump did not detail a specific reimbursement mechanism or figure during the interview, and the White House had not released formal policy details on how any such payment structure would work as of Monday.

The comments came amid a sharp escalation in fighting between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend that has thrown into serious doubt an interim agreement signed last month, under which the two sides had agreed to reopen the strait and pursue 60 days of further negotiations. Iran declared the strait closed Saturday following what it described as an unauthorized transit, and reiterated Sunday that passage through the waterway remained suspended. U.S. Central Command said it had launched a new wave of strikes against Iran over the weekend, striking what it described as dozens of targets across multiple locations using precision munitions aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through the strait. “The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime corridor for global trade. Iran does not control it,” CENTCOM said in a statement. “U.S. forces are postured and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available to commercial shipping despite Iran’s continued unwarranted aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations.”

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejected that characterization directly. “The Strait of Hormuz is our territory, and we will not allow a rogue and child-killing army from the other side of the world to continue its illegal interference in it,” the Guard Corps said, according to The Associated Press. Iran’s top joint military command separately warned that any U.S. attempt to arrange transit through the strait outside routes designated by Tehran, without coordination with Iran’s armed forces, would be “strongly resisted.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said in a separate statement Monday that the only path back to normal shipping traffic through the strait was an end to U.S. military involvement in the waterway, warning that “continued interference could lead to greater incidents in the global oil and gas sector.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said it is working to establish a joint traffic-management mechanism for the strait together with Oman, though spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said U.S. pressure on Oman had complicated those discussions. Iran has separately sought to establish its own permanent fee and permit system for vessels transiting the waterway, which before the current conflict carried roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

Trump has said he now considers the ceasefire agreement effectively over, even as he left open the possibility of further negotiations. “We had a deal. It was a done deal, and then they broke it. They always break it. We’ve had 10 deals with these people, and so we’re just going to hit them very hard,” Trump said in a separate phone interview with Fox News. Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, struck a similarly defiant tone in a post on X, writing, “The era of one-sided deals is OVER.”

The renewed hostilities have marked a sharp escalation in both the pace and geographic scope of attacks compared with earlier phases of the conflict. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, destroyed radar systems in Oman, and struck fuel tanks and ammunition depots at Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan, in what Tehran described as retaliation for the latest U.S. strikes. The foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain condemned Iran’s actions in a joint statement, saying, “We condemn Iran’s heinous attacks on merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on countries in the region, including Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan,” while calling for a restoration of the ceasefire and a resumption of negotiations.

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The renewed conflict has pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude trading up more than 2.6% to around $77.49 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude up nearly 3% to roughly $73.48 a barrel as of Monday, according to market data cited by Benzinga. Shipping-tracking data has shown a sharp slowdown in traffic through the strait, which has fallen to levels not seen in roughly two months as vessels navigate the uncertainty created by the competing claims of control.

Iran has not released an overall casualty count from the past week’s exchanges, though state media reports on individual strikes suggest roughly 20 people have been killed by renewed U.S. attacks, with Iranian news agencies reporting two additional deaths and three injuries from strikes near the city of Abadan on Monday. Higher energy prices stemming from the standoff carry particular political sensitivity for Trump ahead of congressional elections in November, given the direct effect rising gasoline costs tend to have on consumer sentiment domestically.

As of Monday, no formal reimbursement framework, payment structure or timeline for the proposed U.S. “guardian” role in the strait had been detailed by the administration, and it remained unclear whether such an arrangement would require congressional action, agreement from other nations benefiting from the arrangement, or further negotiation with Iran, which continues to reject any U.S. claim to authority over the waterway. This is a developing story.

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Why is SK Hynix stock sliding today?

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