Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
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Good morning. Bets on the US presidential election have surged after a federal ban on political wagers was lifted, and the punters are favouring Donald Trump by a narrow margin. In other voting news: the Unhedged podcast is nominated for a Signal award! Please vote for us in the Money and Finance category using this link. And email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and aiden.reiter@ft.com.
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China’s stimulus
The Chinese government’s decision to boost the stock market with monetary stimulus resulted in a buying frenzy. Shanghai and Shenzhen’s CSI 300 index jumped 25 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leapt 21 per cent in just two weeks. But things have cooled off since:
When the stimulus was first announced, we argued that for this rally to have legs, the Chinese government would need to incentivise consumer spending and put money directly into the real economy. While the government has signalled that fiscal stimulus is coming, it has been sparing with the details — much to the frustration of investors.
It remains unclear what President Xi Jinping and his government want from the stimulus effort. Some believe that they intend to address the structural problems in the economy. Another possibility is that the government just wants to make sure to hit its 5 per cent GDP growth target this year. Others feel that the effort will be merely cosmetic, aimed at making China’s markets look more appealing. It’s hard to tell which view is correct. While Xi has been known to be sceptical of stimulus in the past, the ministry of finance just laid out a substantive four-part stimulus framework (support real estate investment, address local government debt, boost bank lending into the real economy, and support consumers).
How much stimulus would be enough to get the Chinese economy out of the doldrums?
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Start with real estate. The government has announced that it will issue bonds to local governments to allow them to buy back idle land and unsold new homes from developers. One detailed estimate from the French bank Natixis says that would cost about Rmb3tn ($421bn), assuming that the government will buy the properties at 70 per cent market value, which may not be the case.
Next, local government debt. Local governments have a lot of “hidden” risky debt on their balance sheets due to falling real estate values and the shuttering of companies during Covid; estimates range from Rmb50tn-Rmb80tn ($7tn-$11tn). According to reporting from Bloomberg out yesterday, China is considering allocating Rmb6tn ($853bn) through to the end of 2027 to help resolve risky local debt.
The other two priorities — bank lending and consumer support — are even harder to put numbers to. The government has said little of substance. But past stimulus provides clues to what Beijing might be prepared to do across the framework, if there is a real sense of urgency. After the great financial crisis, the Chinese government issued Rmb4tn (about $580bn at the time) of stimulus over a few years. Putting that in today’s GDP terms, that would be about Rmb16tn ($2.2tn). But, given the government’s reticence to put out official numbers, we doubt they will pursue stimulus of quite that scale.
Quantifying the stimulus needed to hit 5 per cent GDP growth is more straightforward. Economists polled by Reuters predict that, at the current trajectory, China’s annual growth rate will be 4.8 per cent at year’s end. Assuming that trajectory is right, the gap between hitting China’s 5 per cent target and the current path is about Rmb252bn of additional output by year’s end, or $35bn. China could try to take the “easy” way out by reaching that directly, either through government purchases or direct investments (as we stated in the past), or by doubling down on its current efforts to boost exports.
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But, according to Eswar Prasad at Cornell University, formerly the head of the IMF’s China division, “[while] fiscal stimulus in the range of half to 1 per cent could be powerful and help achieve this year’s growth target, it is not going to fundamentally alter the trajectory of household consumption or private investment, both of which the [Chinese economy] really needs”.
What if the goal is simply to support the animal spirits behind markets? “The markets want this instant gratification, such as [the central government] spending 1-2 per cent of GDP in the next 12 months,” said George Magnus of the China Centre at Oxford university. While Magnus doubts the government actually wants to stimulate the economy in the ways markets expect, it is possible that Beijing can just try to signal to investors that it is serious with a one-time “bazooka” of cash, to the tune of Rmb1tn-Rmb2tn (1-2 per cent of 2023 GDP, or $140bn-$280bn). The government could also satisfy investors by tacking on other gestures, such as issuing more business visas, or scaling back its crackdowns on western businesses.
The ambiguity about what the government hopes to achieve, and what means it will use to achieve it, leaves only one option for serious investors interested in Chinese equities: wait and see. The backbone of any effective intervention in the economy or markets is clear communication. Without it, there cannot be investment, only speculation.
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GREGGS is set to launch a champagne bar inside a popular department store before Christmas.
The beloved bakery chain is set to open the posh drinks spot inside Fenwick’s Newcastle store from October 24.
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The department-store champagne bar will only be there for a limited time
Visitors can indulge in some festive cheer, paired with Greggs’ famous bakes.
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Customers can sip on a selection of top-tier Champagnes, with glasses starting at just £10 for a taste of Ca’ di Alte Prosecco, or go all out with a luxurious £75 glass of Louis Roederer Cristal.
Those looking for a fancy treat can splash out on a whole bottle of Cristal for a whopping £425.
This concept follows the success of last year’s Greggs Bistro at Fenwick, which attracted more than 8,000 visitors in just one month.
Diners enjoyed a unique twist on festive fare, featuring the popular festive bake alongside duck fat roasties, smoked pancetta, chestnuts, and sprouts.
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This year’s menu, which runs until the end of December, has been crafted by Fenwick’s executive head chef Mark Reid in collaboration with Greggs.
The exclusive menu will only be available at the Fenwick’s Newcastle champagne bar and not chain stores.
Highlights include a steak bake served with a peppercorn aioli for just £4.95, and of course a hearty sausage, bean, and cheese melt with bloody Mary ketchup for £4.50.
Plus, the classic sausage roll has been revamped with a spicy hot honey chilli sauce—perfect for those who like a kick and under a fiver, selling at £4.
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I’m a Greggs superfan and I’m visiting 190 stores in just eight days in my campervan…I’m only eating bakes from chain
And for those with a sweet tooth, the Champagne bar won’t disappoint.
Guests can enjoy signature cocktails inspired by Greggs’ treats.
The bar is also stocked with non-alcoholic options like the refreshing peach Melba cocktail for £7.
The stylish Art Nouveau-style bar will seat just 16 guests at a time, who can summon top-ups by ringing vintage crystal bells.
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Reservations are required, and the bar will be open from 11.30AM until the store closes at 7pm.
Hannah Squirrell, Greggs’ customer director said: “While Champagne and Greggs might not be the most immediate food and drink pairing, we’re thrilled to launch the Greggs Champagne Bar at Fenwick.
“We hope everyone who visited us last year—and many more—will enjoy this fun and unique experience, discovering that a chilled glass of Champagne alongside a sausage roll is the hottest ticket in Toon for 2024.”
Leo Fenwick, strategic partnerships director at Fenwick, added: “After the phenomenal success of last year’s Bistro Greggs at Fenwick, we’re proud to partner with Greggs once again to launch the Champagne Bar.
I am just back from a whistle-stop trip to the US West Coast with the Working It video team 📹. We filmed interviews with tech executives who are implementing innovative ideas that might become the future of work for all of us. (We even whizzed round San Francisco between filming gigs in a driverless taxi.)
Someone then pointed out to me on LinkedIn that businesses in other sectors are leading on this, too. Coolness does not automatically lead to innovation 😎. Fair enough, but innovation, and specifically AI, is in the air on the West Coast. A new gold rush is under way — how will this one turn out?
The view from my (driverless) taxi
Read on for a heads-up about a UK legal change that puts the onus on employers to prevent sexual harassment of staff. Plus, we welcome back careers expert Jonathan Black 😌, with a question from a 30-something in a rut. We’ll be alternating “Dear Jonathan” questions on career development with Office Therapy workplace dilemmas.
If you have an idea for a story — or for making this newsletter better — do email: isabel.berwick@ft.com. Or collar me at an event: I’m at Oxford university tomorrow evening [Thursday — a free talk for the university’s students, staff and alumni, do register if that includes you] and next week in Amsterdam at Reshaping Work 💬.
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New law, new obligations for employers
On October 26, the new Worker Protection (Amendment of Equality Act 2010) Act 2023 will come into effect. It requires employers to take “proactive and reasonable steps” to prevent sexual harassment of staff during their employment 🛑. The previous government launched a consultation on these changes in 2019, so this has been a long time in the making.
It sounds reassuring and helpful, but what, I wondered does it actually mean for employers? Naeema Choudry, partner at law firm Eversheds Sutherlands, suggests what best practice will involve: “Vital steps to take will include conducting risk assessments, reviewing and updating policies, planning and conducting training sessions, which will need to be adapted to the needs of those being trained. A one size fits all approach will not work. Also, establishing clear and efficient reporting mechanisms and, importantly, ensuring senior leadership are engaged.”
There may be serious consequences if businesses don’t act to protect staff. Naeema says: “Whilst breach of the new duty does not entitle employees to bring a freestanding claim in the employment tribunal claim, if they do bring a tribunal claim arising out of any sexual harassment, and that claim is successful, then the tribunal must consider whether the employer has taken reasonable steps to prevent sexual harassment. If the tribunal finds that reasonable steps have not been taken, then it can increase any compensation by up to 25 per cent. In addition, the EHRC [Equality and Human Rights Commission] can take enforcement action against the employer.”
What do managers need to do right now? The first priority is to read, and act on, EHRC guidance on the subject. “This guidance includes advice on actions employers can take to prevent and respond to workplace harassment. Additionally, the EHRC has updated its employer 8-step guide to preventing sexual harassment in the workplace to reflect the new preventive duty.”
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The new law applies not only to harassment taking place in the physical workplace, but also at training events and social events. And while the act doesn’t specifically cover harassment by third parties — such as customers or suppliers — the EHRC guidance does include this requirement, Naeema says: “This is especially important in industries like retail, where you can’t always control customer behaviour. However, businesses can make it clear to their customers, clients and suppliers that harassment of their employees won’t be tolerated and that appropriate action will be taken against any third party who sexually harasses them.
“It’s also crucial to support your employees by providing them with the training and skills to challenge inappropriate behaviour and escalate issues.”
There’s a lot to take in. What effect is this change going to have? Is it enough? There are, as we know, “tick-box” cultures in some workplaces ✅ and power imbalances are built in at any organisation. Mel Rodrigues is CEO of Creative Access, a social enterprise focused on improving diversity, equity and inclusion across the creative industries. She has had a long career in TV, and welcomes the change in the law: “My hope is that it will mean no one has to endure the physical or verbal harassment I previously experienced, often dismissed as ‘banter’ by bosses.”
There is a “but”, of course: “However, companies risk falling short without clear guidance on what ‘reasonable steps’ truly means, and what’s needed to prevent harassment, by addressing the power imbalances and cultural factors that allow it to persist.”
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As so often, it’s not the rules and regulations that will make work better, but the intent and effectiveness of the people who implement them 👩🏽💻.
Consider this your heads up on this big change: the FT will be covering the topic in more detail next week.
Further reading: The CIPD professional body for HRs has some good, easy-to-read material.
Does your organisation offer useful free resources on the new Worker Protection Act? (I hear ‘active bystander training’ is going to be important.) Let me know and I’ll share thoughts here: isabel.berwick@ft.com.
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This week on the Working It podcast
Bankers and lawyers are in “greedy jobs” — they may work 80, 90 or 100-hour weeks and are paid handsomely — but have very little time for the rest of their lives 😰. What are they doing that takes up all this time? And have things changed since the pandemic introduced hybrid and flexible working patterns? In this week’s episode, my colleague Bethan Staton hosts a wide-ranging (and eye-opening 👀) discussion with Suzi Ring, the FT’s legal correspondent, and Craig Coben, a former senior investment banker at Bank of America and now an FT Alphaville contributing writer.
Dear Jonathan 📩
The question: I seem to be stuck in a “progression rut”. I work as a communications manager in a small team, but I don’t have direct responsibility for anyone. If I want to progress to a role with more responsibility, “line manager experience” is listed as an essential requirement, however I don’t have any. Is there anything I can do to address this? Female, 30s
Jonathan Black’s advice: Making the step into line management can appear to be an insurmountable barrier because of the risk-aversion of employers, who only seek applicants who are already doing the particular role they seek to fill.
That leaves people like you wondering how to get ahead. Even if there is a vacancy at your own organisation, it can be difficult for internal candidates to achieve that step up. That’s partly because management recognise you’re doing a great job and would quite like that to continue, and also because it is difficult for the people who hired you for your current role to see you in a managerial position 🙄.
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The only option may be to move to a new organisation. How can you demonstrate previous line management experience, or its equivalent? An answer may lie with internal projects or external activities. Have you managed any short-term freelancers on specific projects? It may be a videographer who came in for a day, an external podcaster/newspaper coming in to interview senior staff, or when you co-ordinated colleagues with external PR — all of these could be used to describe managing people.
Externally, are you involved in managing volunteers at a charity, chairing a school committee, or organising an event for an activity or hobby group? Any of these demonstrate line management skills and experience, and help you answer interview questions such as, “Tell us about a time you line managed a team and . . . happened.”
If you don’t have any of these experiences, or would like to add more, then volunteer for extra assignments, both inside and outside work. You could, for example, seek out and offer to manage a student project 💡 — many universities seek to engage students on voluntary short projects to gain meaningful experience in the business world. This benefits the students, would benefit you if you managed the project, and should yield some useful information for the organisation — all at no financial cost.
Got a career question for Jonathan Black? Email dear.jonathan@ft.com. We anonymise all contributions.
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Five top stories from the world of work
Wall St banks tackle workloads of junior staff: Long hours are nothing new in investment banking, but some of the banks are asking staff to log their hours or are capping them at 80 hours a week. Joshua Franklin, Suzi Ring and Ortenca Aliaj cover the ongoing debate about whether this is helpful or not. Lots of interesting comments, too.
The difficult work conversation AI helped me with: Lots of tips here from Emma Jacobs on how AI can help unblock our procrastination and uncertainty, especially when it comes to the emails we are putting off.
My search for the perfect work soundtrack: Jo Ellison tries — and fails — to come up with the perfect blend of background noise and productivity-enhancing easy listening. Lots of great suggestions from readers in the comments.
Hard Graft at the Wellcome Collection: I reviewed this big (free) exhibition at London’s Wellcome Collection. It’s all about the physical and emotional labour of the jobs that too often go unseen — and financially unrewarded. Well worth a visit if you are nearby.
One more thing . . . .
Lots of people on my LinkedIn feed this week shared the same amazing animated data visualisation from James Eagle on how people met their partners, 1930 -2024. As you might expect, family, school and friends feature at the top of the charts in the 20th century, but the changes after internet dating was introduced . . . will surprise you, even on the fourth or fifth viewing🌹.
This week’s giveaway
Five Generations at Work by Rebecca Robins and Patrick Dunne is the book we all need to navigate a multigenerational workplace. I talked to Rebecca about the subject for this newsletter a few weeks ago, ahead of publication. We now have 10 copies to give away. Enter on this form by 5pm UK time on Monday October 21 and we will pick winners at random from all eligible entrants. [To clarify, our book giveaways are global 🌎— the publishers will post to you!]
And finally . . . calling HR professionals 🙋🏽♂️
The FT is running an in-person session of its HR Forum with a breakfast-time panel at Bracken House, our HQ in the City of London, on the subject of “Building a Multigenerational Workforce”. It’s on Wednesday November 20, at 8.30am to 11am. Speakers include Louise Ballard of Atheni and author Rebecca Robins (see the book giveaway above).
If you’re interested in coming along, register your interest on this form and the organisers will be in touch.
CANOODLING couples can skip the cinema’s back row and instead cuddle up and watch the silver screen in front row beds.
And they can even bring a friend, as the extra-wide loungers fit three people.
Cinema chain Odeon has installed its VIP beds at eight of its cinemas so far — with a ninth location by the end of the year.
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Canoodling couples can now watch the silver screen in front row beds at Odeon cinemas
They have already proved so popular for couples’ date nights they are being rolled out in every new cinema.
Bosses have made sure the headrest is tilted just right, to avoid painful necks when gazing up at the screen as viewers stretch out.
But cinema staff, concerned about an influx of fumbling teenagers, said the beds are “perfect for young families to cosy up in the best seat and immerse themselves in film”.
Tickets are priced between £22 and £42 for three people, depending on location and times.
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Odeon has been upgrading its cinemas to boost the experience for visitors and encourage them to stop streaming and get off their sofa.
It plans to open a string of its upmarket Luxe cinemas later this year amid hopes this winter’s schedule of blockbusters will lead to a film-going revival.
Bumper bookings are expected for upcoming releases including Wicked, Gladiator II, Paddington in Peru and Moana 2.
Martin Lewis Money Show – How to bag FIVE Odeon cinema tickets for just £25 – but you’ll have to be quick
Simply sign up to the Artificial intelligence myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.
The UK government is set to consult on a scheme that would allow AI companies to scrape content from publishers and artists unless they “opt out”, in a move that would anger the creative industry.
The decision follows months of lobbying from both sides over whether online content should be automatically included in material that AI firms can use to train their algorithms.
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Big tech companies including Google owner Alphabet have argued that they should be able to mine the internet freely to train their algorithms, with companies and creators being given the opportunity to “opt out” of such arrangements.
But publishers and creatives have argued that it is unfair and impracticable to ask them to opt out of these arrangements, as it is not always possible to know which companies are trying to mine their content.
They fear such a system would create a huge administrative burden, particularly on smaller companies, and have argued instead that they should have to actively opt in for AI systems to use their content. This would allow them to formulate licensing agreements and get reimbursed for their intellectual property, they argued.
However, ministers are planning to unveil a consultation on pursuing an “opt-out” model in the coming weeks, according to two people briefed on the plans. One added that the “opt out” model was the government’s “preferred outcome”.
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The timing could slip, given that publication of the government’s much-touted “AI Action Plan” is on hold until after the October 30 budget. Others said that a growing backlash from the industry over the move might still derail the plans.
The EU has adopted a similar “opt-out” model through its AI Act, giving companies permission to mine internet content so long as the owner of the copyright and related rights has not expressly denied permission.
But media executives in the UK are deeply opposed to the proposals, arguing that it will lead to the widespread theft of their copyrighted material without remuneration.
They are concerned that the government is being too easily swayed by the arguments of deep-pocketed tech companies, with one pointing to the involvement of former and current Google executives at this week’s investment summit in London.
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In a lobbying document in September, Google said that “to ensure the UK can be a competitive place to develop and train AI models in the future, [the government] should enable [text and data mining] for both commercial and research purposes”.
Media executives also warn that there is no way to verify whether an AI company has scraped their sites unless given access to their training data, something made more difficult because some AI companies scrape archives of content before coming to market, while others offer different conditions for search rather than AI-generated summaries.
Last year, the Intellectual Property Office, the UK government’s agency overseeing copyright laws, consulted with AI companies and rights holders to produce guidance on text and data mining.
However, the group of industry executives convened by the IPO — which came from various arts and news organisations, including the BBC, the British Library and the Financial Times, as well as tech companies Microsoft, DeepMind and Stability — were ultimately unable to agree on a voluntary code of practice, handing responsibility back to the government to find a workable solution.
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Baroness Jones of Whitchurch, minister for online safety, said this week that the government needed to “protect the rights holders”, adding that “we are trying to find a way through that is acceptable to all sides”.
She said that she thought that the answer will be “somewhere down the middle in terms of some form of partnership and understanding”.
Chris Bryant, minister for data protection and telecoms, hosted a round table with various executives to discuss the issue last week.
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A government spokesperson said: “This is an area which requires thoughtful engagement, and as part of that we are determined to hear a broad range of views to help inform our approach.
“We continue to work closely with a range of stakeholders including holding recent roundtables with AI developers and representatives of the creative industries and will set out next steps as soon as possible.”
MARTIN Lewis’ MoneySavingExpert (MSE) has revealed how a quick check could help thousands of Brit households get free insulation this winter.
Many households in the UK could be eligible for a range of freebies offered by energy providers and local authorities under a government scheme.
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Martin Lewis’s MoneySavingExpert website has shared with customers how to get free insulation for your homes this winterCredit: PA
And these could help bring down your energy bills this winter.
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The finance guru’s website MoneySavingExpert (MSE) has urged people to check if they qualify for the Great British Insulation Scheme which is open to a further 400,000 households.
You also must have an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)rating of D or lower.
An EPC rating tells you how energy efficient a building is, with A being the most efficient and G being the most inefficient.
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F-rated homes are some of the leakiest homes in the country, meaning the heat produced by gas boilers quickly escapes the building.
They’re also unlikely to have double glazing or insulation.
The incredible scheme offers households free insulation, including loft, roof, cavity wall and other types of insulation – which could cut your annual energy bill by £100s.
Martin Lewis issues warning to anyone aged under 22 – do you have £2,000 in a forgotten account
Low-income households can also get new boilers and heating controls through the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) scheme.
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Under the ECO scheme, suppliers have a legal obligation to implement energy-saving measures in your home.
Help is offered on a case-by-case basis, but it can mean having a new boiler fitted, or loft or cavity wall insulation put in, often for free.
The ECO was first launched in January 2013 and has been extended four times.
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Not all energy companies are signed up to the ECO scheme. Here is the list of ones that are:
British Gas
E (Gas and Electricity) Ltd
E.ON
Ecotricity
EDF
Octopus Energy
Outfox the Market
OVO
Scottish Power
Shell Energy
So Energy (including ESB Energy)
The Utility Warehouse
Utilita Energy
You only qualify for the ECO under certain circumstances, such as claiming certain benefits and living in private housing.
You also could be eligible if you live in social housing.
Also, just because you are eligible for the ECO scheme, that doesn’t mean you are guaranteed help.
Meanwhile, you may have to fund part of the energy-improving measures in your home.
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You can apply by contacting either your local council or energy supplier.
SOCIAL HOUSING DECARBONISATION FUND
The government recently confirmed fresh funding to help thousands of homes with poor insulation and outdated heating systems are in line for upgrades.
It has boosted the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund (SHDF) by £75million.
The funding will be offered to 42 councils and housing associations across England to help them co-fund installations in up to 8,000 homes.
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Under the scheme, council houses will be retrofitted with wall and loft insulation, double glazing, heat pumps, and solar panels.
They will not be limited to one installation and could get their home insulated, have doors and windows upgraded to reduce heat leakage and cut their energybills.
If eligible, those living in social housing will not need to do anything, as their housing provider will contact them.
Other households will need to check what their local authority has on offer, and they may need to apply for help.
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Local authorities will deliver the funding in different ways.
Therefore, you will need to check directly with your council.
BOILER UPGRADE SCHEME
Meanwhile, through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, you might be able to get a grant to help with the cost of installing a heat pump.
The grant was first launched in 2022 and was originally worth £5,000 or £6,000, depending on the type of heat pump.
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But as heat pumps are typically expensive to purchase and install, costing between £5,000 and £8,000, the government boosted the grant in October to £7,500.
The grant can be used towards both air-source heat pumps and ground-source heat pumps.
Those wishing to install a biomass boiler can also apply for a £5,000 grant.
You must find an MCS-certified installer to claim the grant on your behalf.
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MCS is the certification scheme for energy-efficiency product installers.
You can find the nearest ones to you by visiting www.mcscertified.com/find-an-installer, but it is worth shopping for a few quotes.
Once you agree on a price, the installer will apply for the grant and you will then be contacted by Ofgem, the energy regulator, to confirm that the work is being done on your behalf.
You must pay the difference if the pump costs more than the grant.
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What energy bill help is available?
THERE’S a number of different ways to get help paying your energy bills if you’re struggling to get by.
If you fall into debt, you can always approach your supplier to see if they can put you on a repayment plan before putting you on a prepayment meter.
This involves paying off what you owe in instalments over a set period.
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If your supplier offers you a repayment plan you don’t think you can afford, speak to them again to see if you can negotiate a better deal.
But eligibility criteria varies depending on the supplier and the amount you can get depends on your financial circumstances.
For example, British Gas or Scottish Gas customers struggling to pay their energy bills can get grants worth up to £1,500.
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British Gas also offers help via its British Gas Energy Trust and Individuals Family Fund.
You don’t need to be a British Gas customer to apply for the second fund.
EDF, E.ON, Octopus Energy and Scottish Power all offer grants to struggling customers too.
Thousands of vulnerable households are missing out on extra help and protections by not signing up to the Priority Services Register (PSR).
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The service helps support vulnerable households, such as those who are elderly or ill, and some of the perks include being given advance warning of blackouts, free gas safety checks and extra support if you’re struggling.
Get in touch with your energy firm to see if you can apply.
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