Prediction market platform Kalshi rolled out its U.S. “Midterms Hub” as it seeks to position itself as the primary reference for election odds in the U.S

The new hub will allow users to observe the outcomes speculators expect in individual U.S. Senate and House of Representatives as the country heads to elections in November, Kalshi said in a press release sent Wednesday.

Kalshi said the Midterms Hub will provide a live snapshot of where users are willing to place their bet at any given time. “It’s designed as the one-stop-shop for state and federal election forecasting picture of where a race stands,” Kalshi said.

The outcomes are based on the latest odds for each market and across a map of the U.S., Kalshi said in the statement.

The hub will also feature polling averages, so potential bettors can see how the prediction market odds compare with what statistical surveys of voters are showing, the latest Federal Election Commission fundraising reports for individual candidates, and curated news and analysis from various outlets.

The announcement follows news reports that Kalshi Inc. is seeking regulatory approval with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to expand its perpetual contracts outside of crypto.

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has filed five civil forfeiture complaints seeking more than $25 million in crypto allegedly tied to international investment, romance and recovery scams targeting victims in Canada and the United States. 

On Tuesday, the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and the US Secret Service’s Washington Field Office said that the assets were recovered through separate investigations by the Cyber Fraud Task Force. Investigators identified several laundering networks and confirmed thousands of victims worldwide who were misled into believing they were making legitimate digital asset investments. 

The action highlights the growing scale of crypto-enabled romance and investment scams, which often combine social engineering with fraudulent trading platforms and layered wallet transfers to conceal stolen funds.

The largest complaint seeks about $12.1 million linked to romance schemes that defrauded more than 200 victims, with proceeds routed through intermediary addresses and commingled with other victim funds. Another seeks $10.4 million traced to more than 270 suspected victim transactions, while three smaller cases involved fake investment accounts and a secondary scam offering to recover previously stolen funds. 

The DOJ said the launderers were predominantly located in Southeast Asia, with related IP addresses in China, Malaysia and Cambodia. 

Crypto romance scams face global enforcement push 

The complaints follow a recent Interpol-coordinated operation targeting social engineering scams and financial networks used to launder their proceeds. Operation First Light 2026 involved 97 countries and territories, resulted in 5,811 arrests and the interception of $283 million in illicit assets. Interpol said the operation identified more than 142,000 victims and blocked more than 31,000 bank accounts. 

As part of the operation, Thai authorities uncovered a network that allegedly converted romance-scam proceeds into crypto and used cross-chain token swaps to obscure the trail. A wallet associated with one suspected money launderer processed more than $122.5 million in crypto over 10 months. 

Related: DOJ moves to dismiss charges against alleged $722M BitClub fraudster: Report

US authorities have also pursued crypto assets linked to similar schemes. In February, federal agents seized over $61 million in USDT stablecoin from addresses allegedly used to launder proceeds from fraudulent investment platforms. 

Investigators said scammers first gained trust through romantic relationships, then directed them to fake trading platforms before moving their money through multiple wallets. 

Magazine: Inside the ‘fake police raid’ that forced a $1M Bitcoin transfer

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Ethereum price has climbed from $1,800 to an intraday high near $1,945 after a technology-led Wall Street rebound revived risk appetite, although resistance below $2,000 has kept traders cautious.

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price traded near $1,929 at the time of writing, about 6% above its July 21 low. Buyers initially followed U.S. equities higher as the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3% and the S&P 500 added 0.9%, led by semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks. Micron rose 12.2%, while Nvidia advanced 2%. Notably, enthusiasm around upcoming technology earnings drove the session.

Institutional flows supplied another source of demand. U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded $37.47 million in net inflows during the latest session, according to SoSoValue. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $52.7 million, partly offset by outflows from Fidelity’s FETH.

Momentum also improved against Bitcoin. Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that ETH has outperformed BTC during the third quarter after falling 29.26% in the first quarter and another 25.28% in the second. CoinGlass data shared by the trader showed Ethereum up 22.98% so far in Q3, compared with an average third-quarter return of 8.86% since 2016.

According to Daan, the rebound followed Ethereum’s weakest first half since 2022, making the recovery less unusual despite Q3’s historically slow performance.

“In the end BTC will have to lead the market though,” Daan wrote.

$ETH Outperforming $BTC in Q3 so far.

On average, Q3 is very slow for Ethereum, just like it is for BTC.

But as we can see ETH has had it’s worst first half of the year since 2022 in 2026 so some relief here is not that crazy.

In the end BTC will have to lead the market… pic.twitter.com/RSXiyOTalE

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 21, 2026

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Bitcoin’s ability to retain its recent gains therefore remains relevant to ETH’s next move. A fresh Bitcoin sell-off could drain demand from altcoins even if Ethereum continues to outperform on a relative basis.

Ethereum price has retained a path toward $2,000

Ethereum’s daily chart has formed an ascending channel from the late-June low near $1,514. Price now trades above the channel’s lower boundary and the 20-day simple moving average at $1,828. The rising support line has produced a sequence of higher lows, while the upper boundary leaves room for a move toward $2,080 if buyers clear the current ceiling.

The $1,945–$1,953 area presents the first obstacle. ETH has tested the region twice without securing a daily close above it, and the 4-hour Fibonacci structure places its full recovery level at $1,953. A close beyond that price would expose the $1,981 100-day SMA, followed by the psychological $2,000 level.

Ethereum’s daily RSI has reached 64.36, above its signal average of 59.67 but below the conventional overbought threshold of 70. The reading leaves room for another advance, though buyers no longer have the deeply discounted conditions seen around the June low.

On the 4-hour chart, RSI stands at 63.29, while Stochastic RSI has dropped to 52.86 beneath its 60.72 signal line. The difference shows that the primary advance remains intact even as very short-term momentum has eased after the rejection near $1,945. Consolidation above rising trendline support would preserve the higher-low structure.

Liquidation data places the largest nearby leverage pool between $1,950 and $1,960. CoinGlass’s one-week heatmap shows the band as the brightest concentration above the market, with additional liquidity near $1,980 and $2,000. A break through $1,953 could force short liquidations and accelerate the move toward the round-number target.

Below the market, leverage clusters sit around $1,900, $1,880 and $1,840. The $1,900 zone has already acted as intraday support, while the 4-hour Fibonacci retracement identifies $1,859 as the next major level. Trader Ted Pillows placed the key support range slightly higher, between $1,870 and $1,900.

“If the $1,870–$1,900 level holds, Ethereum could soon rally above $2,000.”

Loss of $1,859 would weaken Ethereum’s recovery

Ethereum’s bullish setup would lose strength if price closes below the $1,870–$1,900 demand zone and breaks the 4-hour trendline. The next support rests at $1,859, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Failure there would expose the daily 20-day SMA at $1,828 and the lower liquidation pocket near $1,840.

A deeper decline below $1,828 would break the sequence of higher lows and place $1,785 back in view. The 4-hour chart identifies that level as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, while the daily 50-day and 50-week averages sit much lower at $1,734. Those levels would become relevant if risk appetite deteriorates sharply.

Macro conditions remain the main external threat. Brent crude reached $91.01 on July 21 as the U.S.-Iran conflict pushed energy prices higher. Expensive oil could revive inflation concerns and lift Treasury yields, which would reduce demand for high-beta assets such as Ethereum.

For now, ETH retains its ascending structure above $1,900. A daily close beyond $1,953 would strengthen the case for $2,000, while a break below $1,859 would invalidate the immediate breakout attempt and increase the risk of a return toward $1,828.

Dollar-backed stablecoins are beginning to behave like a fast-growing channel for “digital dollarization,” according to new research from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). In a study spanning more than 130 economies, BIS researchers argue that stablecoin inflows react differently than traditional foreign-currency deposits—especially when governments impose capital controls or tighten foreign-exchange (FX) restrictions.

The implication for policymakers is straightforward but uncomfortable: rules built for banking systems may be less effective in a tokenized world, where part of stablecoin activity appears to move “outside the regulatory perimeter.” While BIS does not conclude that monetary policy transmission is broadly impaired, it warns that stablecoins could still weaken monetary sovereignty by encouraging households and businesses to hold and transact value in dollars outside conventional banking.

Key takeaways

• BIS finds dollar-pegged stablecoin inflows rise during macroeconomic stress, similar to foreign-currency deposits.
• Unlike bank deposits, stablecoin flows show little sensitivity to capital controls and FX restrictions, suggesting activity can sit beyond regulatory reach.
• The study sees limited evidence that deposit dollarization disrupts monetary policy transmission, though higher foreign-currency deposits correlate with somewhat greater inflation risk.
• BIS argues regulators may need new financial-stability tools tailored to tokenized systems rather than relying on frameworks designed for banks and deposits.

“Digital dollarization” that resists capital controls

The BIS paper examines how dollar-denominated value enters and circulates in economies facing pressure—tracking both foreign-currency bank deposits and inflows into dollar-pegged stablecoins across more than 130 countries. The researchers report that both categories tend to increase when macroeconomic conditions worsen.

That overlap matters because it suggests stablecoins are not merely a speculative phenomenon; they can reflect real-world incentives that emerge during periods of uncertainty, such as depreciation expectations, inflation concerns, and restricted access to reliable FX channels.

However, the key difference is in how the two behave under policy barriers. The BIS authors found stablecoin inflows were “largely unaffected by capital controls” and other FX restrictions. In their explanation, they argue this may be because stablecoins “are partly circulating outside the regulatory perimeter”—meaning restrictions designed to shape bank-based capital flows may not fully apply to token-based systems.

Monetary sovereignty concerns remain

BIS stops short of saying stablecoins automatically destabilize monetary systems everywhere, but it highlights a plausible pathway for damage: households and businesses could increasingly shift into dollars without relying on the banking infrastructure that typically channels and constrains foreign-currency holdings.

The risk is especially pronounced in emerging markets, where currency weakness and limited financial service depth can make dollar assets more attractive. In such settings, stablecoins can lower practical friction for users who want dollar-denominated value for saving, payments, or cross-border activity—potentially reducing demand for local-currency balances and moving more financial activity outside standard intermediation.

The BIS study also notes that even if monetary policy transmission is not obviously weakened in aggregate, the broader environment could still become more fragile. The researchers point out that countries with higher foreign-currency deposits face greater inflation risk, suggesting that dollarization—whether through banks or tokens—may still have macroeconomic consequences worth monitoring.

Why investors and builders should care

For market participants, the findings go beyond a theoretical policy debate. If stablecoin adoption is indeed less constrained by capital controls, then stablecoin liquidity may become a more persistent feature of macro stress—potentially affecting funding conditions, FX dynamics, and how quickly cross-border value can move when local conditions deteriorate.

For developers and payment operators, the study reinforces that compliance and risk management cannot be limited to traditional banking assumptions. When stablecoins circulate through rails that fall outside existing supervisory boundaries, regulatory effectiveness depends not only on formal licensing, but also on where tokens are held, transferred, and used in practice.

BIS’s message to policymakers—“regulations designed for traditional banking and foreign-currency deposits may be less effective in a tokenized financial system”—is a signal that future oversight may evolve toward activity-based frameworks or tools targeted at token ecosystems rather than account-based rules alone.

Stablecoin usage keeps expanding in key regions

The BIS research lands at a time when stablecoin usage is rising in multiple emerging markets, supported by both payments utility and the appeal of dollar-denominated value during periods of instability.

In a separate analysis of Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that households and small businesses have been using US dollar-pegged stablecoins for cross-border payments, remittances, and access to dollar-denominated assets as inflation, currency depreciation, and FX access constraints drive demand. The IMF also noted that stablecoins can reduce the cost and time of moving money across borders while expanding access to financial services for users outside the traditional banking system. At the same time, it warned that broader adoption could weaken monetary sovereignty by shifting demand away from local currencies and moving more activity outside conventional banking channels.

Stablecoin activity is also accelerating in parts of Latin America. Bitso Business, described as the enterprise payments arm of exchange Bitso, reported an 81% year-on-year increase in stablecoin payment volume during the first half of 2026. The company also said Circle’s USDC and Tether’s USDt accounted for 40% of all crypto purchases in the region in 2025, surpassing Bitcoin for the first time.

Meanwhile, broader market data points to continued growth in overall stablecoin supply. Stablecoin market capitalization has risen to about $309.7 billion, up from roughly $260 billion a year earlier, according to the figures referenced alongside the report. For tracking supply and distribution, the article cites DefiLlama’s stablecoin dashboard: DefiLlama.

What to watch next

The BIS study suggests that capital controls may not fully blunt dollar-pegged stablecoin flows during stress, but it also leaves room for further research on how adoption affects different policy regimes over time. Investors and compliance teams should watch for regulatory approaches that better address token circulation beyond banking channels—especially in emerging markets where local currency vulnerability and limited FX access make stablecoin adoption most likely to accelerate.

Bitcoin (BTC) buyers are showing “better absorption” at $65,000 after Binance saw its largest net outflow in nearly two years.

Key points:

• Bitcoin exchange outflows are back on the radar after Binance sees net 9,000 BTC daily withdrawals.
• Seller absorption is improving, even amid sideways price action, analysis says.
• Institutional appetite persists with net positive ETF inflows.

Binance 9,000 BTC daily outflow raises eyebrows

New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant released on Wednesday confirms that daily BTC withdrawals from the world’s biggest exchange are outpacing inflows.

“This usually reflects that short-term supply pressure on Binance is easing to some extent, as $BTC is not being sent to the exchange aggressively for potential selling,” contributor Rei Researcher wrote.

CryptoQuant data shows that on a day-by-day basis, Binance netflows toggle between positive and negative after a string of positive days which ended in early June.

Binance BTC netflows. Source: CryptoQuant

One date, however stands out: On Tuesday, Binance saw a net outflow of more than 9,000 BTC, the largest single-day tally since November 2024.

“When outflows hit this size, someone is moving serious volume into self-custody. Coins off exchanges are coins that won’t be sold into the order book,” fellow contributor Ruga Research commented in a separate post.

Binance BTC netflows. Source: CryptoQuant

Ruga said that on rolling 30-day time frames, netflows continue to repeat a pattern of fluctuations, and the latest spike could still reverse.

“Can this one fail? Absolutely. Momentum has been indecisive around the zero line for two weeks. It hasn’t committed. And what happens next, honestly, nobody knows,” he wrote, referring to the mixed net positive and negative inflow days. 

“But someone just moved 9,030 BTC off the largest exchange while momentum recovers from extreme negative territory. That combination has historically resolved to the upside.”

Exchange flows don’t mean new BTC uptrend

Rei Researcher also avoided suggesting that a major BTC price trend change could come as a result.

Related: Bitcoin $107K buyers providing ‘early signals’ of 2026 bear-market bottom: Glassnode

“The notable point is that negative netflow is appearing while $BTC price has recovered to around $65K–$66K. This suggests that the market is showing better absorption compared to the previous weak phase,” he explained. 

“However, negative netflow does not automatically confirm a new uptrend. It needs to be accompanied by spot demand, volume, and a more stable price structure.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

As Cointelegraph reported, consensus currently sees a full bull-market rebound hamstrung by a lack of sufficient spot demand.

Only derivatives are seeing a turnaround compared to recent months, in part evidenced by net inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

Talos, an institutional crypto trading platform, has integrated with Kalshi so that select clients can trade Kalshi’s event contracts and crypto perpetuals through the same infrastructure. The goal is to remove the need for a separate technical connection when firms want regulated prediction market exposure alongside their existing digital asset workflows.

The integration also adds institutional trading functionality, including algorithmic order types such as Iceberg, TWAP and POV, plus multi-leg execution for perp-to-perp and perp-to-spot spread strategies. Talos said it will support block trades in Kalshi contracts via its request-for-quote (RFQ) system, using participating over-the-counter liquidity providers.

Key takeaways

• Single connection for multiple products: Talos clients can trade Kalshi event contracts alongside crypto perpetuals without switching platforms.
• Institution-grade execution: The integration supports algorithmic orders (Iceberg, TWAP, POV) and multi-leg spread execution.
• RFQ block trading for contracts: Kalshi contract blocks can be executed through Talos’ RFQ flow with OTC liquidity providers.
• Planned broader distribution: Later this year, Talos intends to extend dealer software so brokers and other platforms can offer Kalshi contracts where permitted.
• Standardized prediction market data in the works: Talos plans a unified data feed to normalize events, order books, open interest and implied probabilities across venues.

Why Talos is pulling Kalshi into its institutional stack

For professional traders and market participants, friction between trading venues can be just as important as liquidity itself. By embedding Kalshi access inside Talos’ existing crypto trading infrastructure, the company is effectively reducing operational overhead for firms that already run execution, risk and connectivity through Talos for digital assets.

Talos’ stated approach focuses on execution capabilities: algorithmic order types and multi-leg handling for both crypto perpetual pairs and combinations of perpetuals and spot. For market makers and hedge funds, those features matter because spreads and execution quality can drive outcomes as much as the underlying market.

In addition, Talos’ plan to route block trades in Kalshi contracts through its RFQ platform gives institutions another mechanism for size execution, potentially improving how large orders are filled in less transparent trading environments—though actual availability and terms depend on the participating liquidity providers.

Distribution upgrades planned: from dealer software to a unified data feed

Talos says that later this year it will extend its dealer software to brokers and other trading platforms. If markets and jurisdictions allow, that would enable intermediaries to offer Kalshi event contracts directly to their customers while keeping the same execution framework they already use for crypto assets.

The company also outlined a separate effort: a unified prediction market data feed designed to standardize key market elements—events, trades, order books, open interest and implied probabilities—across venues. In practice, a normalized feed can help firms compare markets more easily and build consistent analytics, especially when prediction market venues differ in how they structure contracts or present pricing data.

Both initiatives point toward a broader strategy: not just connecting one operator to one platform, but making prediction market infrastructure easier to integrate into professional trading ecosystems.

Prediction markets surge as institutions begin to take a larger role

The Talos-Kalshi integration lands during a period of rapidly expanding prediction market activity. CoinGecko’s 2026 Q2 crypto report, cited in the coverage, shows that total notional trading volume on prediction markets reached $113.8 billion in the second quarter, up 48.7% quarter-over-quarter. The report also notes that June alone hit $52.8 billion in notional volume, which it described as a new monthly record.

CoinGecko attributed the spike to a heavy sports calendar, including major global events such as the UEFA Champions League final, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, FIFA World Cup and Wimbledon. It also highlighted that sports-related contracts dominated activity: on Polymarket, sports accounted for 81% of June trading volume, compared with 40% in January.

Market share data presented alongside the growth reinforces Kalshi’s momentum. According to the same CoinGecko report, Kalshi increased its share to 58.9% from 42.4% in the first quarter, while Polymarket’s share declined to 30.2% from 35.8%. The venture backed by Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group-backed interests—Rothera—ranked fourth by June, with $2.1 billion in notional trading volume after launching in May.

Growth continues, but legal and market-integrity risks remain

Even with rising activity, prediction markets are still contending with uncertainty in the United States and heightened attention from regulators and market participants. Coverage notes that Kalshi is involved in disputes with state regulators regarding whether its sports event contracts could be considered illegal gambling—an issue observers expect could eventually reach the US Supreme Court, according to earlier reporting on Cointelegraph.

Beyond the regulatory backdrop, scrutiny has also focused on market integrity. The coverage references earlier reporting that six Polymarket traders reportedly profited by about $1 million from bets on US military strikes against Iran before the attacks became public. Separately, it mentions that a White House teleprompter operator was placed on unpaid leave after allegedly betting more than $100,000 on Kalshi markets tied to President Donald Trump’s speeches.

For investors and trading firms watching the segment, these developments underscore a core tension: prediction markets are drawing more mainstream participation and institutional attention, but the credibility and long-term expansion of the space depend heavily on how law and enforcement address both the product classification question and allegations of information misuse.

As Talos expands access and moves toward standardized prediction market data, market observers will likely focus on two things: whether distribution through brokers broadens participation without running into additional compliance complexity, and how ongoing legal outcomes and integrity enforcement shape institutional willingness to scale exposure in the months ahead.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $66,300, extending gains after reclaiming the 50-day EMA.
• The leading cryptocurrency remains below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, leaving key resistance levels intact.
• Technical indicators, including the RSI and MACD, point to strengthening bullish momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained firm around $65,800 on Wednesday, extending this week’s rally as the broader cryptocurrency market continued its recovery.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency strengthened its short-term outlook after closing above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a technical development that suggests buyers are gradually regaining control. 

However, Bitcoin still faces significant resistance from longer-term moving averages that must be cleared before a stronger bullish trend can emerge.

Bitcoin reclaims key technical support

Bitcoin’s recent move above the 50-day EMA at $65,150 marks an important improvement in market structure after weeks of corrective trading.

While the breakout has strengthened short-term momentum, BTC continues to trade below the 100-day EMA at $68,082 and the 200-day EMA at $73,982, indicating that the broader recovery remains incomplete.

As long as Bitcoin holds above the 50-day EMA, buyers maintain a near-term advantage. However, reclaiming the higher moving averages will be essential to confirm a sustained bullish trend.

Technical indicators continue to support the improving market outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 60, remaining comfortably above the neutral 50 level while staying below overbought territory. This suggests buying momentum is strengthening without showing signs of exhaustion.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, indicating that bullish momentum continues to build. Although the indicator has yet to signal a decisive breakout, it reinforces the view that buyers are steadily gaining confidence.

Bulls eye the $68k resistance level

The next major hurdle for Bitcoin sits at the 100-day EMA around $68,082. A successful breakout above this resistance would improve the medium-term outlook and shift attention toward the 200-day EMA at $73,982. 

If bullish momentum continues beyond that level, BTC could target the longer-term resistance zone near $84,410.

On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day EMA at $65,150. A stronger support area lies around $64,004, where buyers may attempt to defend the recent breakout.

However, a sustained move below $64,004 would weaken the current bullish structure and increase the risk of a broader correction.

For now, Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-day EMA, coupled with strengthening momentum indicators, suggests bulls are regaining control. The next decisive test will be whether buyers can overcome resistance near $68,082 to extend the current rally.