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If you’re so happy, why are you buying so much gold?

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Good morning. Third-quarter earnings season is off to a good start. It’s mostly been banks so far. Market volatility has made the trading desks happy; on the retail side, interest margins are holding up better than expected; and the banking sector is up 6 per cent in the last week. In even happier news, the FT Alphaville Pub Quiz is returning to New York on November 12. Unhedged will be hosting a round — we hope to see you there for some wonky questions and a few drinks! Instructions for how to sign up are here. Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and aiden.reiter@ft.com

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Gold

A lot has been written about the gap between consumer sentiment, which remains bad, and employment and wages, which are strong. Something similar is happening in markets: sentiment is increasingly bullish, but gold continues to rally like crazy. This is not a totally anomalous situation, but historically gold has often peaked when investors are feeling insecure. That is not the case today. Here is a chart of the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey’s bull-bear spread (I use the 24-week average as it is a very noisy series) plotted against the gold price. The dotted lines mark spots where gold peaked just as sentiment troughed.

It is not just the AAII survey that shows sentiment is strong. Bank of America’s global fund manager survey this month showed the biggest leap in sentiment since June of 2020, along with bond and cash allocations coming down. So why is the price of the classic maybe-something-awful-happens asset, gold, hitting epic highs?

Unhedged has written several times before about the oddness of this gold rally. To recap the main points:

  • The gold price does not seem to be responding in a straightforward way to inflation or money printing. Gold rose when the first emergency fiscal and monetary actions increased the money supply in 2020. But then it went sideways as the money supply expanded further and inflation took hold. It was only after the Federal Reserve started absorbing liquidity, rates rose and inflation was slowing that gold really started to jump. Here is the gold price, M2 money, and the CPI price index rebased to 1 as of January 2020: 

Line chart of 01/01/2020 = 1 showing Why did gold wait?
  • The normal relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken. The real interest rate is the opportunity cost of owning a yieldless metal, so when real rates rise, gold tends to fall. Not this time:

  • Similarly, gold and the dollar strengthened in tandem for much of this year. Usually, because gold is priced in dollars and inversely related to US interest rates, they move in opposite directions. The relationship has normalised somewhat recently.

  • Gold mining stocks are not participating in the rally. The chart below, from James Luke of Schroders, shows the ratio of the gold price to the price of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (the green line). Miners are very cheap compared to the metal. The blue line is the current gold mining industry “all-in sustaining cost margin” for producing an ounce of gold. The margin is very high indeed. A strange combination, and one that suggests that investors in gold miners — to the degree there are any of those left — do not believe $2,700 gold is going to last. 

As a way to make sense of these oddities, one might ask, who is buying all the gold? In particular, who has been buying it since it passed $2,100, the level at which many experts thought demand from price-sensitive buyers would dry up?

The first candidate is central banks. They did significantly increase the portion of their foreign exchange reserves held in gold in 2022 and 2023. But, according to the World Gold Council’s demand report, central bank demand is roughly flat in the first half of 2024.

Investment demand — ingots, coins, ETFs — also seems to be flattish relative to last year. While the holding of gold ETFs are rising a bit, they are still lower than they were last year at this time. Here’s a chart from Josh Wolfson at RBC:

Jewellery demand does not seem to be the culprit, either. Chinese and Indian jewellery demand, an important part of the global picture, has fallen dramatically as prices have risen and the Chinese economy has slowed, according to the WGC.

Who is driving the price then? I have heard various theories: sovereign wealth funds buying on the sly and hedge funds chasing the price are the most popular. Certainly, it is the case that momentum-driven quant funds will pursue any price with a strong upward trend. 

Whoever the marginal buyer is, the move from $2,000 to $2,700, if it should be sustained in any meaningful way in the months to come, does suggest that gold may be becoming a slightly different kind of asset.

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Of course it could be that gold is responding to the fact that there are wars in Europe and the Middle East, as well as acute electoral uncertainty in the US. Indeed, geopolitical worry is almost surely part of the story. But if it were the whole story, shouldn’t stocks be falling, and bond volatility be rising?

In a world awash in liquidity, gold may have become another asset investors buy when they decide they have too much cash on their balance sheets. If something like this is true, it would suggest that gold will act more like a risk asset, and less like a hedge, in the future.

A quite different explanation is that gold, rather than responding to short- or medium-term moves in rates, inflation and the money supply, is making an adjustment to the expectation that we are in a new, more fiscally profligate regime where the neutral rate of interest is higher, central banks are under more pressure, and inflationary incidents are more common. In such a world, gold might deserve a somewhat larger place in the optimal portfolio.

As something of a gold sceptic, I am struggling to accept any of these hypotheses. But I would be very keen to hear readers’ views.

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Flood insurance should probably be more expensive.

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Taboos take a back seat in a new Europe

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Fewer voters are put off by the roots of some far-right parties

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How product providers should offer advice

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How product providers should offer advice
Shutterstock / By Tithi Luadthon

Reading about M&G’s troubles, I can’t help putting them down to the obsession with running an expensive fund platform. But what do I know?

What I do know about is 21st century advice – something I believe is built on the shoulders of giants, such as the Man from the Pru.

These advisers door-knocked, cold called and worked evenings to get families started on a lifetime of saving and self-preservation.

So, why is offering advice so hard these days?

It’s a real shame such a historical institution as M&G cannot remain committed to solving the challenges of advice regulation while making a profit.

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It’s a real shame such a historical institution as M&G cannot remain committed to solving the challenges of advice regulation while making a profit

There remains a huge advice gap opportunity for any company who can de-mystify the world of investment and help the man in the street access the wonder of compound interest, just like they used to.

Providing advice seems to terrify those around the board table. Is it impatience from shareholders, short termism on the part of directors or just fear of liability? Probably all three.

I have previously voiced support for a simplified advice regime which could be a gateway to the markets for low value investors taking advice.

To those providers pondering on leaving or entering the advice market, here are my suggestions for making it work:

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  • Reduce the hurdle of cash savings: Three months spending in cash can take five to seven years for people to save and it is not mandatory as emergency provision. This restriction serves the anxiety of compliance staff more than it serves the interest of investors, and it can be done better.
  • Know the outcomes of what you are offering: Charges need to be competitive, and easily justified. Funds need to be liquid, transparent and dependable in their expected returns. Projections need to be realistic and not woefully cautious.
  • Think about the liabilities: How will they arise? How is the compensation calculated? Which investors complain? What triggers the complaint? By looking at this in full detail, you can inform the quality of your messaging and have more investors with confidence.
  • Get the box tickers out from their desks: Give them sales training, teach them to advise, make them talk to clients.
  • Focus on service: Of £198,798 complaints to the Financial Ombudsman Service in 2023/24, £1,459 (0.7%) of them were against advisers. Why fixate so much on the nuances of suitability? With a simple and reliable product proposition, 90% of advice can be algorithmic – making it both efficient and profitable.
  • Know your target market and sell to them: Financial services have been a huge contributor to prosperity in the UK. We should believe in the benefit of what we do.

The regulation of financial services in the UK has been a been a huge success in improving the rights and security of consumers. But it is nothing to fear. Our faith in delivering advice to all must endure alongside the products and the markets that will deliver for investors.

Greg Neall is chartered financial planner at Wake Up Your Wealth

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dummy, holding greater length in trumps, becomes master hand

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Few pairs bid the slam on this deal, and two who did failed. Can you find a better line than the 75 per cent chance of taking two finesses and hoping that one is right . . . ?

Bidding
Dealer: South
N/S Game

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In this auction, North’s 2D response promised at least an ace or king in his hand, so South jumped to game over North’s 3H transfer, showing a liking for the suit. North leapt to the slam and West led 9♠.A singleton trump is often a poor choice but, here, leading around into South’s strong hand, it worked well. With both red-suit finesses losing, it was as well that declarer created a superior line. One diamond discard from dummy will be sufficient for success, so this is what South sought.

He drew three rounds of trumps, before cashing K♣ and leading to A♣. A low club was ruffed in hand, and then the heart finesse attempted. When this loses, West returned another heart.

Winning this in hand perforce, allowed declarer to ruff a second low club in dummy, drawing West’s Q♣. Now, the diamond finesse could be spurned. Instead, 6♦ was led to A♦, J♣ was cashed, discarding 10♦ from dummy, and the table is left high with a trump and J♥.

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State pension warning as hundreds of thousands ‘edge closer’ to having money knocked off payments

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State pension warning as hundreds of thousands ‘edge closer’ to having money knocked off payments

HUNDREDS of thousands of retirees are set to pay tax on their state pension for the first time next year.

This is due to a combination of hefty state pension rises and frozen tax thresholds.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to have to pay tax on their pension for the first time

1

Hundreds of thousands are expected to have to pay tax on their pension for the first time

It is expected that more than 300,000 pensioners will be told that they need to pay tax when the state pension rises by £473 in 2025.

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The figures released this week have confirmed that the state pension is now expected to rise from £11,502.40 to £11,975 per year under the triple lock.

With tax thresholds frozen until 2028, this increase will drag even more pensioners into paying tax for the first time, it has been warned.

This is because the total annual amount of income they receive will be more than their personal allowance.

The allowance is the amount of money you can earn before you have to pay tax on your income.

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Under the current rules, this is up to £12,570 each tax year.

It was previously expected that around 140,000 pensioners would receive a letter for the first time this year.

But because of the proposed increase in the state pension, more than 300,0000 people are now likely to get one.

Alice Haine of Bestinvest said: “Add in frozen tax thresholds, with the full new state pension gaining ground on the standard personal allowance of £12,570 and pensioners are edging closer to the point at which their state pension income becomes liable for tax.

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“Retirees already receiving a higher state pension may already be paying tax on the benefit, while those receiving a private pension income will see more of that swallowed up by tax.”

What Does My Tax Code Mean? A Simple Guide to Your HMRC Letter

Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown also pointed out that while rising state pensions are good news, the tax threat is “a hidden sting in the tail”.

She said: “While the full new state pension is currently set at £11,502 and is set to get close to £12,000 from next April it’s conceivable that in the next two years we could see it breach the £12,570 threshold and see pensioners landed with a tax bill.

“It’s also worth saying that many pensioners on the basic state pension system receive more than this as they get a top-up to their income in the form of the state second pension so receive a tax bill even if they have no other income.”

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Many pensioners have other pensions – personal or workplace – and HMRC will usually take the income tax due through these pensions, Helen pointed out.

She said: “Those pensioners wholly reliant on the state pension who face paying tax will receive a simple assessment letter from HMRC telling them how much they owe.

“There have been concerns about pensioners being chased for small amounts of tax though HMRC has said they would not look to chase tax amounts that would cost more to collect than is actually owed.”

Why is this happening and is there anything I can do to avoid it?

High inflation rates mean more people in work are getting pay rises to try and keep pace with rising prices.

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However, with income tax bands frozen, it means many are being pushed into the next tax bracket.

Laura Suter, director of personal finance at AJ Bell, previously told The Sun: “Pensioners looking to reduce their tax bill need to think about how they can maximise their tax-free income.

“For example, any withdrawals made from their ISAs will be free of any tax. so they can use that pot of money to boost their income without impacting their tax bill.”

An ISA is a type of savings account in which you can save up to £20,00 a year tax-free.

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Laura also suggested that couples can organise their finances so they ensure they are each making use of their tax-free allowances, which might involve moving money or assets between themselves.

Helen also added that pensioners might want to use some of their pension to top up their income.

She said: “Most people can access 25% of their pension as a tax-free lump sum so they may decide to use this to top up their income without pushing up their tax bill.”

However, she also warned that pensioners below the personal allowance are going to find it increasingly difficult to avoid paying income tax in the coming years.

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The finance expert added: “A full new state pension hits just over £11,500 per year and even relatively modest 3.5% annual increases would see people pushed over the threshold by the time the threshold freeze ends.”

How does the state pension work?

AT the moment the current state pension is paid to both men and women from age 66 – but it’s due to rise to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2046.

The state pension is a recurring payment from the government most Brits start getting when they reach State Pension age.

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But not everyone gets the same amount, and you are awarded depending on your National Insurance record.

For most pensioners, it forms only part of their retirement income, as they could have other pots from a workplace pension, earning and savings. 

The new state pension is based on people’s National Insurance records.

Workers must have 35 qualifying years of National Insurance to get the maximum amount of the new state pension.

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You earn National Insurance qualifying years through work, or by getting credits, for instance when you are looking after children and claiming child benefit.

If you have gaps, you can top up your record by paying in voluntary National Insurance contributions. 

To get the old, full basic state pension, you will need 30 years of contributions or credits. 

You will need at least 10 years on your NI record to get any state pension. 

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Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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UK small-cap stocks face ‘existential threat’, report warns

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Asset manager Abrdn has called for stamp duty tax on shares in smaller British companies to be scrapped following a warning that the sector faces an “existential threat” as it continues to shrink rapidly.

The fund group said measures should be brought in to protect and support small and midsized listed companies in the UK, including “immediately abolishing” stamp duty on the purchase of FTSE 250 shares.

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Stamp duty is levied at 0.5 per cent for investments in most UK stocks. London’s junior Aim market is exempt from stamp duty, but Abrdn said this exemption should be extended for all companies — or at least all of the companies outside of the largest 100.

The asset manager’s call comes as New Financial, a think-tank, released a report on the state of UK smaller stocks, noting that about 600 companies with a market value of less than £1bn have delisted over the past two decades.

Policymakers are attempting to galvanise the UK’s capital markets amid concerns that businesses are seeking to leave the London market and list in the US in search of a higher price tag.

The report by New Financial said that one of the key reasons for the drop in UK small-caps has been the collapse in demand from UK pension funds. Just one local government scheme has a specific holding in UK small-caps — compared with 18 schemes just over a decade ago.

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“Smaller listed companies are an integral part of the UK economy,” said Sir Douglas Flint, chair of Abrdn. “They drive innovation and generate wealth and jobs across almost every corner of the country.

“If policymakers consider what can be done to boost investment in the UK generally, we cannot afford to ignore UK small-caps.”

William Wright, founder and managing director at New Financial, said: “Our report argues that UK smaller companies are facing an almost existential threat.

“There are many factors behind the decline but the collapse in demand from UK pension funds — which have increasingly switched to globalised portfolios — and the decline in demand from retail investors have been the main drivers.”

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However, the report noted that over 25 years, UK smaller companies including London’s junior stock market Aim actually generated an annualised total return of 7.4 per cent — in line with the US S&P 500 and nearly 50 per cent higher than the wider UK market.

Abrdn said it wanted the Mansion House compact, in which major pension funds made a voluntary pledge to put more money into private markets, broadened to include listed small-cap stocks in the UK.

The fund group noted other measures that could encourage investors, such as pension funds, to back the UK more generally, including increasing the minimum contribution to workplace pension schemes via auto-enrolment, which currently stands at 8 per cent.

Abrdn also suggested a campaign to “get the UK investing” and a simplification of Britain’s tax-free individual savings account (Isa) industry to make it easier for people to invest.

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Other companies, such as investment platform AJ Bell, have called on the government to simplify the Isa market by reducing the several products available to just one, within which investors can switch between cash and stocks.

In a separate report, Barclays also suggested reviewing stamp duty on UK stocks, which raises about £3.8bn a year for the Treasury.

“If we want the UK’s public markets to revive, be strong and sustainable in the long term and be internationally attractive, we need to find firms that are currently at a growth stage that are going to be the next big firms,” said Katharine Braddick, Barclays’ head of strategic policy.

However, other think-tanks believe the Aim market, which lists companies with a market value of less than £30mn, is not fit for purpose.

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A report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and the centre-right think-tank Onward said that Aim should be scrapped as it has “failed in its stated purpose of providing a home for scaling businesses”.

“It should be fully merged with the LSE’s main market, with a special route to listing specifically for high-growth firms in emerging technology sectors,” the report added.

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Kennedy Wilson appoints Harris to oversee industrial and logistics investment

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Kennedy Wilson appoints Harris to oversee industrial and logistics investment

He joins from Paloma Capital, where he deployed capital from value-added funds and its UK industrial joint venture.

The post Kennedy Wilson appoints Harris to oversee industrial and logistics investment appeared first on Property Week.

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