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Diesel prices spike amid Iran war, raising cost of groceries, new homes

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Diesel prices spike amid Iran war, raising cost of groceries, new homes

The fuel most Americans never think about could become the Iran conflict’s biggest economic consequence. While gasoline prices grab headlines, diesel quietly powers the trucks, farms, freight trains and heavy equipment that keep the U.S. economy moving.

From the groceries on supermarket shelves to the Amazon package on your doorstep and the materials used to build new homes, diesel is embedded in nearly every step of the supply chain. As prices rise, businesses face higher transportation costs that economists say often ripple through the economy, pushing up the cost of everyday goods.

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Diesel prices, which averaged $3.56 a gallon in January 2025, have climbed to $5.13 following the Iran conflict, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

A fully loaded semi-truck typically gets just 6 to 7 miles per gallon of diesel, according to Department of Energy data. Filling its roughly 250-gallon tanks can cost more than $1,280 at today’s prices.

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“We all focus on gasoline because, ultimately, we’re consumers and pump prices are very visible. But what we don’t think about is the price of diesel, which is the workhorse fuel for the U.S. economy and especially for key sectors,” Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, told Fox News Digital.

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“From an inflationary perspective, I’m very concerned about the recent rise in diesel prices as it pertains to the cost of food or grocery store prices,” Yaros said.

“Take the food industry, for instance. Diesel powers the irrigation pumps, the tractors in the field and the trucks that bring food from the farm to your local grocery store. It’s part of every layer of food production in the U.S.”

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A person is seen grabbing the nozzle for diesel fuel at a gas station.

A person is seen grabbing the nozzle for diesel fuel at a gas station. (Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg/Getty Images / Getty Images)

An energy industry source, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said the recent diesel surge shows how geopolitical conflicts can quickly filter into the broader economy.

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“The great majority of the price movement that you’ve seen in diesel markets over the last five months has been the direct result of the conflict in Iran and specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” the source told Fox News Digital.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through it each day, and disruptions can quickly tighten fuel supplies and drive diesel prices higher.

WHY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ MATTERS AS TRUMP ISSUES FRESH ULTIMATUM TO IRAN

map of strait of hormuz

A satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, vital for global energy supply. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital / Getty Images)

Even if tensions in the Middle East ease, diesel prices may not quickly return to pre-conflict levels.

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“Refineries don’t process crude instantaneously,” the source said. “A lot of times what you’re filling up your car with today was refined a week and a half ago and was produced two months before that.”

That lag means higher diesel costs can continue working their way through the economy even after crude oil prices stabilize, leaving consumers to pay more for groceries, deliveries and other everyday goods long after the headlines from the Middle East begin to fade.

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Vehicle drives into crowd at Berlin Pride festival, causing injuries, police say

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OpenAI failed to recognize autonomous agent attack for days: report

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OpenAI failed to recognize autonomous agent attack for days: report

OpenAI didn’t catch an autonomous breach of another artificial intelligence (AI) company by one of its advanced AI models for a week, and not until after the FBI had been contacted by the hacked company, according to a report.

On Tuesday, OpenAI announced the breach of AI company Hugging Face that happened during one of OpenAI’s internal reviews of several of its models, including GPT-5.6 Sol, calling it an “unprecedented cyber incident.”

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“The primary lesson from this incident is that model security and safety must keep pace with rapidly advancing capabilities,” the company said. “We are strengthening the containment, monitoring, access controls, and evaluation practices used during model development.”

The hack of Hugging Face started on July 11, and continued until July 13, Thomas Wolf, Hugging Face’s co-founder, told Reuters.

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OpenAI logo

OpenAI revealed on Tuesday one of its AI models had autonomously hacked another company’s infrastructure.  (Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images, File / Getty Images)

It was several days before OpenAI realized its agent was behind the attack and the two companies didn’t communicate for the first time until July 20, four people, including Wolf, told the outlet.

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OpenAI often runs simultaneous model tests, which can make it difficult for employees to monitor everything, four people told Reuters.

Hugging Face told Reuters it is preparing a public timeline of the hack.

According to OpenAI, the incident took place during an internal evaluation designed to measure its AI models’ advanced cyber capabilities. Researchers disabled some built-in safety safeguards and ran the models in an isolated testing environment with limited internet access.

OpenAI said the models exploited an unknown software flaw to access the internet, then breached Hugging Face’s systems in an apparent attempt to find answers to a cybersecurity benchmark.

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OPENAI’S SAM ALTMAN WANTS TO NEGOTIATE A 5% STAKE IN COMPANY FOR US IF COMPETITORS AGREE TO KEY PROVISION

Hugging Face logo

Hugging Face said it was preparing a timeline of the hack.  (Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images, File / Getty Images)

OpenAI said it’s now implementing stricter security controls while vulnerabilities are patched and strengthening safeguards around future AI training and evaluations.

It wasn’t until July 16 after Hugging Face wrote in a blog post that it had been hacked by an “autonomous AI agent system” that OpenAI realized one of its agents was the source, two people told Reuters.

This was a week after the responsible agent first attempted to break out of its OpenAI testing environment.

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And by the time OpenAI contacted Hugging Face about the attack, they had already contacted the FBI.

OpenAI told Reuters there were several inaccuracies in its reporting but didn’t respond when asked for specifications.

Sam Altman speaking

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly announced the attack on Tuesday. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images, FIle / Getty Images)

OpenAI shared this statement with FOX Business: “We recognize there are a lot of questions and speculative details circulating related to the Hugging Face incident. This is an unprecedented incident, and we think it marks an important moment for AI safety. We are still conducting a thorough review along with external advisors and with oversight from our Safety and Security Committee. Once the review is complete, we plan to publish a technical report of our learnings in the coming weeks.”

The FBI told FOX Business that it declined to comment. 

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FOX Business has also reached out to Hugging Face. 

In an X post this week, Hugging Face co-founder and CEO Clem Delangue addressed the incident after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced the hack.

Illustration shows OpenAI logo

OpenAI said one of its AI models compromised another company’s systems during internal testing, prompting a joint investigation with AI startup Hugging Face. (Reuters/Dado Ruvic, File / Reuters)

“We suspected last week’s cyberattack might have come from a frontier lab, given the sophistication of the agent. Turns out it did!” Delangue wrote.

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He added, “We’ve spent the past 24 hours working closely with the @OpenAI team (thanks!), and we strongly believe there was no malicious intent on their part. It’s quite mind-blowing that all of this happened autonomously! The investigation is ongoing, and we’ll share more learnings from what might be the first incident of its kind!”

FOX Business’ Michael Sinkowitz contributed to this report. 

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Berlin Pride parade called off after car hits crowds, police say

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Iran says Ukrainian attack on vessel in Caspian Sea killed sailor

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Goldman Sachs raises TOPIX 12-month target to 4,500 on weaker yen outlook

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Flavio Bolsonaro launches Brazil presidential campaign, touts support from Milei, Netanyahu

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At least 21 people injured in New York City fire

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BofA warns oil volatility could force c. banks to abandon look-through’ policy

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Twelve dead in attack on holiday camp in Russian-held part of Ukraine, officials say

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Comparing Two of 2026’s Hottest AI-Era Stocks Before You Decide Where to Invest

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Tesla chief and Twitter owner Elon Musk

Investors weighing where to put new money this year have two unusually different but similarly buzzy options on the table: South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix, whose U.S.-listed shares debuted with the largest foreign IPO in American history earlier this month, and SpaceX, which completed the largest initial public offering ever recorded just weeks earlier. Both stocks have generated intense investor interest, but their businesses, valuations and risk profiles differ substantially. Here’s what the numbers show.

Note: This article provides factual information to help readers understand each stock; it is not financial advice, and individual investment decisions should account for personal risk tolerance and, where appropriate, guidance from a licensed financial advisor.

How each company reached the public markets

SK Hynix’s American depositary receipts began trading on Nasdaq on July 10, raising $26.5 billion in the largest first-time share sale by a foreign company in U.S. history, surpassing Alibaba’s 2014 offering. Shares priced at $149 and jumped 13% on their debut, and the offering was more than seven times oversubscribed.

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SpaceX went public just weeks earlier, on June 12, in an offering that dwarfed even SK Hynix’s. The company sold 555.55 million shares at $135 each, raising more than $75 billion and valuing the company at $1.75 trillion, the largest IPO in history. Shares opened at $150 and surged more than 30% before closing the first day at $160.95, a rally that briefly made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

Where the stocks trade now

As of Friday, July 24, SpaceX shares, trading under the ticker SPCX, stood at $114.25, down from a previous close of $118.24, and well below the stock’s all-time high of $225.64 reached June 16. That represents a decline of roughly 50% from the stock’s post-IPO peak, according to Yahoo Finance, which also noted the stock is down about 25% over the past month and roughly 9.7% over the past week alone, amid rising short interest and volatility ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings report.

SK Hynix’s ADR, by comparison, has held up considerably better. Shares traded around $172.70 on Friday, up 4.5% on the day, and the stock’s premium over its Seoul-listed common shares has remained elevated, reflecting sustained U.S. investor demand for direct exposure to the company’s memory chip business.

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The bull case for each

SK Hynix’s investment case centers on its position as the world’s leading producer of high-bandwidth memory, the specialized chip technology essential for powering the AI accelerators made by companies like Nvidia. The company’s stock has climbed more than sevenfold over the past year amid a global shortage of AI-grade memory chips, and it is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 29, with analyst estimates already trending upward heading into that report.

SpaceX’s bull case rests on a broader, more diversified set of businesses: its dominant position in commercial rocket launches, its rapidly growing Starlink satellite internet service, and long-term optionality tied to Starship, the company’s next-generation reusable rocket system. HSBC, in a note initiating coverage of the stock, modeled a “blue sky” scenario valuing SpaceX as high as $293 per share if Starship becomes commercially viable starting in 2027 and Starlink captures a larger share of the broadband market. Alphabet’s own second-quarter filing disclosed a $94 billion stake in SpaceX, underscoring how deeply other major technology companies have bought into the company’s long-term prospects.

The bear case and valuation concerns

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Despite that bullish long-term framing, HSBC set a base-case price target of just $115, below both SpaceX’s $135 IPO price and its recent trading level, and initiated coverage with a hold rating, arguing that shares already reflect much of the company’s long-term growth potential even after applying a premium for Musk’s track record of building disruptive businesses. According to StockAnalysis.com, SpaceX’s roughly $2.77 trillion peak valuation implied a price-to-sales ratio of nearly 150 times its $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, a figure the site contrasted with defense contractor Raytheon, which trades at roughly 2.8 times its larger revenue base.

SK Hynix, by contrast, has drawn more measured valuation concerns, though its ADR has traded at a substantial premium, at times exceeding 30% to 50%, over its Seoul-listed shares, reflecting strong but potentially overheated U.S. investor demand relative to the underlying Korean stock.

Analyst sentiment

Wall Street’s overall stance on SpaceX remains cautiously optimistic despite the stock’s post-IPO slide. According to Investing.com, 27 of 34 covering analysts rate the stock a buy, versus just one sell rating, with an average 12-month price target of roughly $231 to $237, implying substantial upside from current levels, though estimates range widely from a low of $62 to a high of $800, reflecting deep disagreement about the company’s ultimate trajectory.

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Volatility and risk profile

The two stocks differ sharply in recent volatility. SpaceX carries a reported beta coefficient of nearly 6, according to TradingView, reflecting extreme price swings relative to the broader market, and the stock has become the subject of a large short-selling position, with bearish bets reportedly gaining more than $15 billion in value as shares fell from their post-IPO highs. SK Hynix, while itself a historically volatile stock, has shown comparatively steadier post-IPO trading, buoyed by continued strong demand signals in the AI memory chip market heading into its earnings report.

What to weigh before deciding

Investors comparing the two are weighing fundamentally different bets: SK Hynix offers more direct, immediate exposure to current AI infrastructure spending through an established, profitable chip business with a clearer near-term earnings catalyst in its upcoming report. SpaceX offers exposure to a broader, more speculative set of long-duration technologies, rocket launch dominance, satellite internet and future Mars ambitions, with a valuation that several analysts, including HSBC, have described as already pricing in significant future success.

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SK Hynix’s July 29 earnings report will offer the next concrete data point for investors assessing that stock’s near-term trajectory, while SpaceX’s own upcoming quarterly results, along with the outcome of its next Starship test flight, are likely to serve as key catalysts determining whether the stock stabilizes after its steep post-IPO decline or continues to face pressure from rising short interest and lockup-related share supply. Both companies remain central to the broader AI and space infrastructure buildout shaping markets this year, but their risk, valuation and volatility profiles differ enough that the right choice is likely to depend heavily on an individual investor’s time horizon and tolerance for the kind of dramatic swings SpaceX shares have already shown since going public.

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