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Altcoin Markets Show Recurring 120-Day Downtrend Cycle as Base Formation Begins

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TLDR:

  • Altcoin markets have experienced two identical 120-day downtrends since January 2024 during peak optimism phases. 
  • Total3 market cap shows rally-distribution-bleed-reset pattern rather than continuous upward bull cycle movement. 
  • Price has returned to major support zone while RSI sits at depressed levels after months of declining momentum. 
  • Historical pattern suggests capitulation windows occur when 120-day cycles repeat within same market structure.

 

Altcoin markets have consistently followed a 120-day downtrend pattern over the past two years, according to recent market analysis.

The cycle appears during periods of peak optimism and extends into full four-month corrections. Traders holding positions in recent drawdowns may find relief in understanding this recurring timeframe. The pattern suggests markets move in predictable blocks rather than continuous upward momentum.

Recurring Downtrend Structure in Altcoin Markets

Total3 market capitalization data reveals a consistent rhythm since January 2024. Markets experience sharp rallies followed by extended distribution phases.

The first quarter of 2024 saw altcoins surge before entering a 120-day decline. During these periods, bounces get sold, and sentiment turns negative.

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Later cycles showed identical behavior. A fourth-quarter rally materialized before another 120-day correction pushed into early 2026. The duration matched previous patterns almost exactly. This repetition indicates structure rather than random volatility.

Market observers from Our Crypto Talk noted how most participants only recognize the rally phases. Successful traders track the reset periods with equal attention.

The current environment sits within another reset zone. These blocks follow a sequence: rally, distribution, slow decline, reset, then another rally.

Understanding this rhythm changes how traders approach positioning. Markets don’t move in straight lines during bull cycles.

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Instead, they advance through predictable consolidation periods. Recognition of these phases helps separate short-term noise from longer-term trend development.

Technical Setup Points to Potential Base Formation

Current price action has returned to a major support band that previously acted as a floor. The market has repeatedly reacted around this zone in past cycles.

This area represents significant accumulation levels from earlier timeframes. Price behavior near established support often signals exhaustion of selling pressure.

Momentum indicators show complementary signals. RSI has trended downward for months and now sits at depressed levels.

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While no single indicator guarantees reversals, compressed momentum after timed downtrends typically precedes shifts. Selling pressure appears to be reaching exhaustion points.

The convergence of time-based cycles and technical levels creates noteworthy conditions. When 120-day downtrends appear twice within the same cycle, they often mark capitulation windows.

Weak positions exit while value-focused buyers begin accumulating. This phase doesn’t guarantee immediate upside but shifts probability distributions.

Market structure suggests a transition from random downside to base building. Bitcoin’s stability could catalyze altcoin bid activity in coming weeks.

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The panic phase appears complete based on historical cycle comparison. Patience becomes valuable during these periods as markets digest previous excesses and establish foundations for subsequent moves.

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Crypto World

Thailand crypto platforms freeze 10K accounts amid AML crackdown

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Crypto Breaking News

Thailand’s crypto ecosystem is facing intensified scrutiny as authorities push a stricter regime on digital asset transactions. Operators in the country report that more than 10,000 accounts suspected of laundering funds have been frozen in the wake of tightened screening rules. The changes aim to slow dubious transfers and require additional Know Your Customer checks before higher-risk movements are completed, according to reporting from the Bangkok Post. The move marks a broadening effort by regulators and industry associations to curb illicit activity in a market that has seen a surge of compliance measures in recent years.

Key takeaways

  • Thai licensed digital asset operators froze over 10,000 accounts identified as suspect mule accounts after the rollout of new screening measures and enhanced KYC checks for higher-risk transfers.
  • The tightening builds on coordinated efforts by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Thailand and the Thai Digital Asset Operators Trade Association (TDO), with support from the Bank of Thailand and various law enforcement agencies.
  • Earlier in 2025, operators reportedly froze a much larger pool of mule accounts, with 47,692 identified in the period and handled within the Thai digital asset framework.
  • Authorities have signaled a broader push to close money-laundering loopholes by enforcing the Travel Rule for digital asset transfers and enhancing data-sharing between crypto operators, banks, and law enforcement.
  • Regulatory momentum in Thailand continues to unfold alongside actions against “gray money” in gold markets, reflecting a comprehensive tightening of financial oversight across asset classes.

Market context: The crackdown mirrors broader regional and global moves toward stricter AML/CFT standards for crypto activities. It comes as regulators push for clearer guidelines and cross-agency cooperation to curb illicit flows while balancing innovation and investor protection in Southeast Asia.

Why it matters

The Thai authorities’ approach signals a more disciplined regulatory environment for digital assets in Southeast Asia. By pairing tighter screening with explicit Know Your Customer procedures, officials aim to choke off the so-called mule accounts that move funds through multiple layers before reaching illicit destinations. For operators, the measures translate into deeper onboarding checks and stricter controls on high-risk transfers, potentially increasing compliance costs but also reducing reputational risk stemming from association with crime.

For investors and users, the evolving framework could bring greater transparency and predictability, albeit with heightened friction on some transactions. The Travel Rule enforcement adds another layer of customer-identification requirements, particularly for wallet-to-wallet transfers routed through exchanges. This aligns Thailand with a growing set of jurisdictions prioritizing traceability in digital-asset movements, even as the sector seeks to maintain smooth access to finance and capital markets for legitimate participants.

From a policy perspective, the collaboration between the SEC, the TDO, and federal and local enforcement bodies illustrates a mature, multi-agency approach to crypto regulation. The joint efforts to expand data-sharing, tighten screening, and standardize suspicious-activity responses demonstrate a willingness to move swiftly when red flags arise, while still engaging industry stakeholders in crafting practical safeguards.

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What to watch next

  • Outcomes from the February 2025 SEC–TDO workshop, including new guidelines for monitoring and investigating mule accounts and any published expedited measures.
  • follow-up steps on expanded data-sharing between crypto operators, banks, and law enforcement to prevent transfers to suspected mule accounts.
  • Any additional rounds of mule-account identification or freezes, and whether these actions target specific platforms or market segments.
  • Regulatory guidance on broader digital-asset safeguards, including potential updates to the Travel Rule and related compliance requirements.

Sources & verification

  • Bangkok Post: crypto-operators freeze 10,000 suspect accounts — https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3213543/crypto-operators-freeze-10000-suspect-accounts
  • SEC statement on collaboration with TDO and other agencies to tighten safeguards — https://www.sec.or.th/EN/Pages/News_Detail.aspx?SECID=11581&rand=113627
  • Bangkok Post: SEC to expand digital asset framework — https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/investment/3180638/sec-to-expand-digital-asset-framework
  • Pattaya Mail: Thai PM orders tighter oversight of gold and digital asset transactions to close financial loopholes — https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/thai-pm-orders-tighter-oversight-of-gold-and-digital-asset-transactions-to-close-financial-loopholes-532051?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Thailand tightens mule accounts crackdown across digital assets

The Thai crypto ecosystem has entered a phase of heightened vigilance as regulators press for greater integrity in digital-asset markets. The most visible development so far is the publicized freeze of more than 10,000 accounts flagged as mule accounts—vehicles used to launder illicit funds or mask the origin of criminal proceeds. This action followed the implementation of stricter screening measures designed to slow down suspicious transfers and require additional Know Your Customer checks before completing higher-risk transactions. The Bangkok Post highlighted these changes, noting that operators have started to identify and freeze a substantial number of accounts as a consequence of the enhanced due-diligence regime.

Industry participants at the helm of Thailand’s digital-asset scene point to a broader, ongoing effort to curb illicit activity. Att Thongyai Asavanund, chief executive of KuCoin Thailand and chairman of the Thai Digital Asset Operators Trade Association (TDO), described the current phase as a direct response to evolving risk indicators. He said the tightened screening process enabled exchanges and brokers to identify and freeze more than 10,000 mule accounts, reflecting a concerted push by the sector to uphold compliance standards while continuing to serve legitimate traders and investors.

The collaboration between regulators and the industry has grown more structured over time. In February 2025, the SEC disclosed that it had worked with the TDO, the Bank of Thailand, the Cyber Crime Investigation Bureau, the Central Investigation Bureau, the Anti-Money Laundering Office, and the Thai Bankers’ Association to develop additional safeguards against mule accounts. This multi-agency effort underscores the Thai government’s intent to close gaps that criminals exploit—particularly as the country’s digital asset market expands and becomes increasingly integrated with traditional financial systems.

Earlier summaries from Thai authorities and media reported a broader, systemic approach to combatting mule accounts, with a sequence of enforcement actions that extended into 2025. Reports indicated 47,692 mule accounts had been frozen by Thai digital asset operators in 2025, signaling a sustained and data-driven approach to identifying risk and applying countermeasures. The TDO, which represents licensed digital-asset operators, continues to advocate for balanced governance that protects consumers while enabling legitimate innovation in the sector. As the sector broadens, exchanges and brokers alike are expected to tighten onboarding, enhance monitoring, and cooperate with law enforcement in real time.

The regulatory push also intersects with efforts to crack down on “gray money” flows in other asset classes. Thailand recently launched a comprehensive campaign aimed at closing money-laundering loopholes in both physical gold markets and crypto assets, emphasizing a holistic approach to financial crime prevention. In parallel, the government has pushed to strictly enforce the Travel Rule, requiring licensed crypto-asset service providers to collect and transmit identifying information about the sender and recipient of certain digital-asset transfers—particularly for wallet-to-wallet transfers facilitated via exchanges. This alignment between crypto, banking, and law-enforcement bodies marks a decisive step toward comprehensive oversight that aims to deter illicit activity while maintaining market resilience for compliant participants.

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The evolving regulatory landscape in Thailand signals a broader shift in how Southeast Asian markets approach crypto compliance. With multiple agencies coordinating and industry groups actively participating in rule-making, the region appears to be moving toward more interoperable standards that can withstand the pressure of illicit finance while still accommodating legitimate innovation and investment.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Tokenized Stocks Surpass $1 Billion as Ondo and xStocks Lead Market

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Tokenized Stocks Surpass $1 Billion as Ondo and xStocks Lead Market

Tokenized stocks have surpassed $1 billion in total value on-chain, marking a new milestone for the fast-growing real-world asset (RWA) sector.

Data from RWA.xyz shows the value of tokenized equities climbing past the $1 billion mark, as platforms offering blockchain-based exposure to traditional stocks attract more trading activity and liquidity.

Much of that activity is concentrated among a small number of players. RWA.xyz data and a report released Tuesday by Foresight Ventures show Ondo as the largest tokenized stock platform by value, while xStocks products account for another significant share of the market.

On Tuesday, Foresight Ventures released a report arguing that the market is consolidating around these early leaders, citing regulatory barriers, liquidity advantages and differing tokenization models as key factors shaping competition in the sector.

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Tokenized stocks crossed the $1 billion milestone. Source: RWA.xyz

Tokenized stocks form an early duopoly

RWA.xyz data shows that Ondo holds roughly 58% of the market, while tokenized stock products issued under the xStocks platform account for about 24%, forming an early duopoly in the sector.

Alice Li, an investment partner at Foresight Ventures, told Cointelegraph that the early leaders gained an edge by making clear structural choices around liquidity, legal frameworks and distribution.

“Building one of these platforms requires liquidity infrastructure, multi-jurisdiction legal rights, and DeFi composability, and those three things pull against each other,” Li told Cointelegraph.

Li said Ondo and xStocks got to where they are because they “made a clear architectural bet early and built deep around it.”

Related: Tokenized RWAs climb 13.5% despite $1T crypto market drawdown

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Market concentration is not unique to tokenized equities. In a post on X, DeFiLlama founder 0xngmi said revenue across several DeFi sectors is increasingly flowing to the top two platforms.

He cited data from the analytics platform showing similar patterns in stablecoins, derivatives and decentralized exchanges.

Source: 0xngmi

Tokenized assets continue to expand across crypto markets

The growth of tokenized equities comes amid broader momentum in blockchain-based RWAs.

According to RWA.xyz data, the total value of tokenized RWAs excluding stablecoins has climbed to roughly $26 billion, reflecting growing demand for blockchain-based representations of traditional financial instruments.

On Feb. 26, the tokenized US Treasury market surpassed $10.8 billion in market capitalization. At the time of writing, the sector’s overall value is at $11.13 billion, indicating continued growth.

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Trading activity has also accelerated for tokenized RWAs. On March 6, trading volumes in tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds routed through the 1inch aggregator’s integration with Ondo exceeded $2.5 billion since the partnership launched in September 2025.