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California’s war on the homeless

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California's war on the homeless
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The housing and affordability crisis is getting worse, and more people around the country are facing the grim reality of homelessness. Rather than treating housing as a human right and committing to large-scale construction of accessible housing, states like California are responding with police raids of homeless encampments and imprisonment for unhoused people. On this episode of Rattling the Bars, host Mansa Musa discusses non-carceral solutions to the housing crisis with Zachary Murray and Estuardo Mazariegos of the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE).

Studio / Post-Production: Cameron Granadino


Transcript

The following is a rushed transcript and may contain errors. A proofread version will be made available as soon as possible.

Mansa Musa:

Welcome to this edition of Rattling The Bars. I’m your host, Mansa Musa. Joining me today are two men that are very active in advocating, educating, and enlightening people about the state of people that are homeless, among other things. Here today to talk about the state of California are two extraordinary gentlemen.

Introduce y’allselves to Rattling The Bars. Zach?

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Zachary Murray:

Yeah, I’m Zach Murray. I’m a statewide campaign coordinator with the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment based in Los Angeles.

Mansa Musa:

Estuardo?

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Estuardo Mazariegos:

Yeah, good morning. My name is Estuardo Mazariegos. I’m co-director of Los Angeles ACCE.

Mansa Musa:

And what do ACCE stand for?

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Estuardo Mazariegos:

The Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment.

Mansa Musa:

OK, thank you.

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OK, let’s unpack this. A recent article came out, I neglected to identify the source, but a recent article came out in a newspaper in California that was highlighting the situation in California. And the tagline on it was, if California doesn’t back affordable housing, then you get what you pay for.

All right, so now what is the state of housing in California as it relates to low-income people or people that can’t afford housing? I know California got a serious homeless population, but what is the state as y’all identified in California, state of homelessness in California?

Zachary Murray:

Well that article that you mentioned, it was an editorial that was authored by one of our LA-based members, Maria Briones, and what she was calling out was the state’s underinvestment in solving the housing and homelessness crisis.

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Right now, the state of California has over 180,000 homeless people. There’s only 70,000 shelter beds. So that means for over half of the homeless population, there is insufficient shelter. So when folks are being displaced or driven to homelessness, they have nowhere to go. And so, right now we have encampments, we have folks who are living in RVs and cars, and there is no place to go.

Most recently, our governor, Governor Gavin Newsom, following the grant’s past Supreme Court decision, ordered that the state of California would sweep encampments on state property. And he suggested that county and city governments do the same thing.

And so, what Maria Briones was specifically calling out was that the governor knows what it takes to solve the housing affordability and homelessness crisis. It takes more housing, it takes an investment in the creation of affordable housing.

Specifically, in 2022, Governor Newsom made a promise that he would build 1 million affordable homes by 2030. And unfortunately we’ve only made, since that time, about 12% of the investments necessary to get there. In fact, and as is called out in that editorial, last year, alone and over the past several years, the state of California has only spent 1% of its budget on affordable housing and homelessness.

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And so, for most people, voters in California, housing and homelessness is an issue that they are concerned about because we all see it, and many of us are experiencing it, either homelessness or being at risk of homelessness because of increasing rents. And so, if the state is going to take this seriously, there needs to be more investment from the state of resources to address the housing crisis.

Mansa Musa:

OK. All right, so Estuardo, Zach laid out something about saying that Governor Newsom said that he was investing in. But now, isn’t the Olympics coming to California, the next Olympics, which would be, what? What year is that?

Estuardo Mazariegos:

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2028.

Mansa Musa:

OK so in 2028. He was talking about building 1 million affordable housing by 2030. But now, from what I’m gathering, what is their reaction to the fact that now they have this worldwide, nationwide event coming? Just suppose to add to what Zach just outlined, so do you think this has anything to do with that or is this just the general attitude of California as well as in the nation?

Estuardo Mazariegos:

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I think a lot of the issues will be front and center during this world event, if not taken care of before then. And when I mean taken care of, I mean providing folks affordable housing, access to shelter, making sure that people have a place to go, not just sweeping up.

One of the things the governor also did a couple weeks ago was he had an executive order, or a directive, and they were able to use the grant’s passing to say, hey, sweep up, city by city, every homeless encampment that is in your city.

I live in south central Los Angeles, right down the street from Expo Center, which is one of the mega centers that would host the Olympics. The LA Live area with Crypto Arena, LA Convention Center, The Coliseum, BMO Stadium, the Galen Center. A lot of different facilities here will be hosting hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people. And, at the same time, around these venues you have dozens and dozens of encampments that surround probably thousands of people living on the street, with a concentration of racialized poverty around these places as well.

So you start seeing a lot of pressure from corporations like Airbnb coming in, taking over units and turning them into short-term rentals where there’s already a lot of pressure happening. So it goes hand in hand.

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You see the need for housing here in our community is high. We have about 17,000 children living in poverty around these stadiums. And 49,000 people, very low-income folks in that entire community around all of these venues. On top of thousands and thousands not counted for because a lot of the methodology behind the count, the homeless count in Los Angeles, is wrong. So there’s thousands of homeless folks.

So putting the pressure of an event where it’s going to cost about $7 billion to build up in the City of Los Angeles from both private investment. And at the same time you have the city of Los Angeles, which only has invested $61 million for affordable housing production and preservation in 2022. So something’s got to give.

And unfortunately, it’s always the other way where it hurts people instead of helping people. So what we want to see is an event, or we want to uplift our community, and we see this as an opportunity to uplift our community and not displace it, not uproot it.

So the 2028 Olympics and Gavin Newsom is really tied into together. And, as a community, we’re fighting to define the issue. We’re fighting to make sure that we bring resources, but it really does take having the type of political leadership to listen. Right now, we’re seeing that Gavin Newsom just isn’t listening.

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So what we do as a community is we organize and we build pressure on the decision makers. So that’s what we’ll start doing from now on out until 2028 to try to really use that as an issue to build up affordable housing in our communities.

Mansa Musa:

And me and Zach was talking off camera about [how] the article reflected that the most vulnerable population, in addition to our children, is seniors. And the article highlighted the seniors, and the senior was saying that, I never thought I’d be in this situation where I’d be homeless. But that the reason why this person found themselves in that state was because the slumlord refused to make repairs in the housing. And the city, as opposed to having oversight and enforcement, chose to remove the person and put them in a shelter.

Is this something that’s going on throughout the state of California? That seems like the slumlords and the city, or the slumlords and the state are in cahoots with each other in terms of displacing people, Zach?

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Zachary Murray:

Absolutely. We see, all across the state, a lot of pressure because of the desire of corporate landlords, and landlords in general, to run up the rents. California has very limited rent control protections, very limited tenant protections in so many corners of the state.

And so, in Oakland, where the city government has been struggling to fund its services, our ACCE office there is fighting for proactive rental inspections that aren’t punitive towards the tenants, but really help to force the landlords into a situation where they have to improve the habitability. Because part of the cost of living in a market as expensive as the cities are in California is that people are putting up with living in uninhabitable conditions.

And this particularly affects seniors because of the extent to which seniors live on limited income, Social Security income. And so, the pressure is on for people. And in the event that seniors get displaced, there is no housing that’s truly affordable to them in so many of our markets.

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And so, we see this pressure because seniors and, as you pointed out, families with children are vulnerable populations. They don’t have the extra income that’s required to afford housing. And there’s a lot of pressure.

And I know here in the Los Angeles area, ACCE has been fighting to protect tenants from landlord harassment, which is an increasingly really insidious strategy that landlords have taken on to displace people.

Mansa Musa:

Hey Estuardo, what is Sacramento doing then? We’re talking about a number of initiatives that have been taken, a number of initiatives that are being proposed. We know Newsom’s attitude as you outlined, but what about the remaining body of the legislative body of California? What are their positions? Because a lot of them come out these districts where people are being displaced or are living in squalor. Talk about that.

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Estuardo Mazariegos:

They’re doing too little, and it’s honestly coming too late. They’re just taking their sweet time to really think about deep and real rooted community solutions for the issue.

That answers a lot of language year in and year out. Our organizations and our movements come to Sacramento with packages of bills where we’re like, hey, make it harder for landlords to harass tenants. Make it harder for landlords to do these ridiculous rental increases of 10%. Or make it harder for corporate landlords to take over our communities. And year in and year out, we find that, even with representatives coming from areas that are directly impacted by the housing crisis, by price gouging, by corporate landlords, have the corporate landlords in their ears.

And it’s harder and harder every year to get anything passed that makes any common sense. And every time we show up with a policy and we say, hey, this could really keep thousands of families in their homes, by the time that we’re done with the political and policy process in Sacramento, it is so watered down that it makes small differences, it improves some people’s lives, but the original idea behind it always gets watered down.

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So right now, Sacramento needs to really develop a bench of leaders that are willing to buck the traditional political powers in Sacramento, meaning money, [inaudible] interest, and listen to its community.

So as of right now, I would say at best, Sacramento is doing small, minor changes. What we need is big changes. We need to make housing a human right in California and spend more than 1% on affordable housing. 1% is insane in the middle of the housing crisis. You know where they’re spending the most money though? In prisons. So who have a housing policy? And guess what it is? It’s prisons. Inhumane.

Mansa Musa:

Talk about going forward where y’all strategy as far as mobilizing the state around this issue. Because as it stands now with Corporate America being involved and California being slated for this Olympics, I know they’re going to invest a lot of money into the infrastructure to accommodate world athletes. I know they’re going to invest a lot of money into the police to police the population that’s disenfranchised and dissatisfied with the state.

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So talk about, going forward, what’s y’all strategy going forward? Because, as it stands now, y’all saying in the article, if you don’t invest in housing, then you get what’s coming down the pipe. So what’s coming down the pipe?

Zachary Murray:

I can talk about the state level work, and Estuardo can talk about the local work that’s happening. Well, I’ll just say this: the governor threatened $3 billion in cuts, and ACCE along with our coalition partners turned out over 600 people to Sacramento back in April to protest that and to demand very specific action. And that resulted in $2 billion of funding being restored.

But the reality is that in order to solve this crisis, the state needs to invest $18 billion annually. Now, we know we just sent a $20 billion check to Israel to conduct the actions that they’re doing in Gaza. So the money’s there. We’re calling on the State of California to invest, to step up the revenue and the money that goes into affordable housing so that we can get to $18 billion in affordable housing investments annually so that we can build a million homes by [2030].

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And we’re working to build a large coalition of housing advocates, homeless advocates, folks who are focused on the climate to help address this crisis because even though, as Estuardo pointed out, our prison population in California has actually declined, the amount of money that we’re investing in prisons continues to increase every year.

And so, we know that the funding is there. What’s not there is the political will. And so, we’re organizing our members and organizing with member-based organizations across the state to make this demand. And we have a month of action that’s going to be taking place in September where, in communities across California, there are going to be town halls, candidate forums to call in these elected officials and folks who are running for office to commit to this million homes campaign.

And we’re also going to do some direct actions, including some direct action at the state Capitol to bring this issue right to the governor’s backyard because right in Sacramento today, the City of Sacramento is displacing an encampment of elders. And so, we want to bring this right to the governor and say, we need solutions right now.

Mansa Musa:

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OK. Estuardo?

Estuardo Mazariegos:

At the local level in Los Angeles, we have some bright spots. We have one of the most progressive taxes,, or transfer taxes called ULA, which is essentially a transfer tax on property that is being sold that’s worth $5 million or more. And this, it’s really infusing hundreds of millions in dollars into LAHD, the LA Housing Department, which is in charge of staffing and planning a task force that will go out and inspect any tenant harassment, or any slum housing conditions, or just keep up code with apartments. And also rent control. They’re the ones in control of rent control.

And one of the most exciting parts of ULA is that it’s bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars to build affordable housing and alternative housing, alternative model housing. Meaning housing that isn’t on the market, basically, that’s community controlled, and it stays affordable and community controlled forever. So common sense housing, or a lot of people would like to call this social housing. So community controlled housing, alternative models of housing.

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So it’s really awesome that we have that in place already. We passed it last year and then… Well, we’re one year and a half in now, and we’ve already raised about $380 million, close to $400 million I believe, on that transfer going into LHD. And this is no sunset, meaning that it’s going to go on forever. So we potentially could see billions of dollars coming into the city of LA to build affordable housing and to staff the programs that help our community and tenants in the areas that we organize in have dignified living conditions.

And it’s still not enough. We still have to look for more buckets of resources. And look, to be honest, the state of California is what, the fifth-largest economy in the world? There isn’t a reason why we have so many folks living in the street. There isn’t a reason why we have so many children living in slum housing conditions. We can afford it. It’s just about asking who isn’t paying up.

And we all know who it is. It’s the big corporations, it’s those big landlords, the folks that are buying up our communities, displacing our people, and profiting from our people suffering.

Mansa Musa:

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Monetizing poverty.

Estuardo Mazariegos:

Yep, yep, yep.

Mansa Musa:

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Okay. And you know what? How can our listeners and viewers support or get more information on what y’all are doing going forward? Either one of y’all or both of y’all.

Zachary Murray:

The campaign that we’re doing statewide has a website, which is one, it’s the number one spelled out, onemillionhomesca.org. And folks can find out about the statewide organizing to get 1 million homes, to get the state to invest in affordable housing there. And like I said, there’s a calendar of events for folks who are in California that is available on that website. ACCE is hosting a number of events including a statewide town hall that’ll be virtual if folks are interested in plugging into the work that we’re doing. It’s on Sept. 7 at 10:00 AM Pacific Time.

Mansa Musa:

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Okay.

Estuardo Mazariegos:

And locally in Los Angeles, if you’re listening in LA or have family or friends in LA, we constantly have organizing. So if you look for us at calorganize.org, go to the Los Angeles page and you’ll find our information. If you know you need some housing rights clinics, we will hook you up.

And we’re always out in the street. So whenever we hear tenant harassment, we’re out there making sure that we bring attention to that. And we are also mobilizing all the time to create that political will.

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So our next big mobilization is Sept. the 28. We’re calling it the Raise the Wages Lower the Rent March. So if you’ll be in LA that Saturday, join us 10:00 AM at Pershing Square.

Mansa Musa:

There you have it. The real news, Rattling the Bars. I recall somewhere in my history of this country, it said that we hold these truths to be self-evident, that all people are created equal and have an unalienable right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. But we’re finding now in this day and age that corporate America has deprived people of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness by pre-meditatively displacing people and putting them into a homeless situation where they’re either going to die off or go in prison.

But however, we have some people that’s organizing to prevent this from happening. And we applaud y’all for y’all work, and thank you for joining us because y’all definitely rattled the bars today. Thank you very much.

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Zachary Murray:

Thank you for having us.

Estuardo Mazariegos:

Thank you.

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Civil Liberties at Risk Under Vietnam’s Tô Lâm

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On May 25, 2023, a Vietnamese court in Danang sentenced 39-year-old noodle vendor Bui Tuan Lam to six years in prison for posting an online clip deemed anti-government propaganda. Detained since 2021, Lam was isolated from his wife and children for two years before his trial drew international attention for its bizarre background and questionable legality. The dangerous video in question? A TikTok-style parody video mocking then-Minister of Public Security Tô Lâm’s extravagant culinary selection at a steakhouse in London.

One year into the food vendor’s sentence, now-President Tô Lâm’s political fortunes changed dramatically. On August 3, the former top security official was unanimously elected as Vietnam’s next Communist Party General Secretary, the most powerful position in the country. It was the culmination of his meteoric political rise, facilitated by the death of his mentor and longtime party boss Nguyen Phu Trong, in July. Pledging to build on his predecessor’s legacy, Tô Lâm made it clear that he will continue prioritizing the anti-corruption policies and security measures that defined his tenure at the Ministry of Public Security. 

However, as Bui Tuan Lam and the other 160 Vietnamese political prisoners have come to realize, Tô Lâm’s extrajudicial definition of a security threat includes public dissent, civil liberties, and even lighthearted comedy. 

Born on July 10, 1954, Tô Lâm has always prized security. After graduating from the People’s Security Academy in 1979, he held various law enforcement roles until his elevation to the Ministry of Public Security in 2016. There, he defined himself as an excellent political enforcer, leading an impressive anti-corruption campaign under Trong’s direction. Together, Lâm and Trong’s “Blazing Furnace” campaign targeted over 20,000 government officials in 2023, a dramatic increase from previous efforts. 

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“Tô Lâm was appointed one of five deputy chairmen of the Central Steering on Anti-Corruption that was the spearhead of Trong’s blazing furnace campaign,” Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales, told me. “As Minister of Public Security, Tô Lâm was also responsible for the harassment, intimidation, arrest and imprisonment of political and civil society activists.”

To General Secretary Trong, Tô Lâm’s role in Hanoi as an enforcer quickly became apparent. In Lâm’s first week at the Ministry, the former law enforcement officer oversaw the brutal suppression of protests against Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, the company responsible for arguably the worst environmental disaster in Vietnamese history. 41 protesters were arrested, including activist Hoang Duc Binh, who was sentenced to 14 years in prison for advocating on behalf of local fishermen affected by the disaster. 

Two years later, Tô Lâm’s Ministry of Public Security significantly expanded government surveillance powers. The Law on Cyber Security, passed by the National Assembly in 2018, required telecommunication providers to record and store their users’ private data, including “full name, date of birth, place of birth, nationality, profession, position, place of residence, contact address.” Despite widespread condemnation and international outrage, the law continues to undermine Vietnamese civil liberties and online privacy. 

It’s not just democratic organizers and human rights advocates who have been targeted under Tô Lâm’s security regime. Le Trong Hung, a former middle school teacher, was arrested in 2021 after challenging General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong to a nationally televised debate. Another teacher, 43-year-old Bui Van Thuan, was also arrested that same year and sentenced to nearly a decade in prison for publicly criticizing the Communist Party. Even Lâm’s own police officers, such as Captain Le Chi Thanh, have been prosecuted for exposing corruption within the Ministry of Public Security. 

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Tô Lâm’s self-styled campaign to root out “corruption” and enhance state security also coincidentally targeted political opponents within his own party. “Tô Lâm used the Investigative Police Department of the Ministry of Public Security to gather evidence of corruption by the President Vo Van Thuong, the Chairman of the National Assembly Vuong Dinh Hue, and the Permanent member of the party Secretariat Truong Thi Mai,” says Thayer. “These were the three most powerful figures in the leadership under General Secretary Trong. All were pressured into resigning in turn.”

Since taking office in August, General Secretary Lâm has moved quickly to solidify his position on the international stage. Last week, the Vietnamese leader visited Beijing to meet with China’s Xi Jinping, marking his first official overseas trip. The visit came nearly a year after Vietnam upgraded its diplomatic relations with both Japan and the United States. However, this continuation of former President Trong’s “Bamboo Diplomacy” should not be interpreted as a sign that Lâm intends to govern as a carbon copy of his mentor. Tô Lâm’s particularly abysmal human rights record distinguishes him as a unique threat to civil liberties and basic freedoms, further cementing a decade-long trend of increasing censorship and political persecution in Vietnam.

[Ting Cui edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

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Record Indian gold imports help drive bullion’s rally

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A surge in demand among Indian consumers for gold jewellery and bars after a recent cut to tariffs is helping to drive global bullion prices to a series of fresh highs.

India’s gold imports hit their highest level on record by dollar value in August at $10.06bn, according to government data released Tuesday. That implies roughly 131 tonnes of bullion imports, the sixth-highest total on record by volume, according to a preliminary estimate from consultancy Metals Focus. 

The high gold price — which is up by one-quarter since the start of the year — has traditionally deterred price-sensitive Asian buyers, with Indians reducing demand for gold jewellery in response.

But the Indian government cut import duties on gold by 9 percentage points at the end of July, triggering a renewed surge in demand in the world’s second-largest buyer of gold.

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“The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented, it was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.”

The tariff cut has been a boon for Indian jewellery stores such as MK Jewels in the upmarket Mumbai suburb of Bandra West, where director Ram Raimalani said “demand has been fantastic”.

Customers were packed into the store browsing for necklaces and bangles on a recent afternoon, and Raimalani is expecting an annual sales boost of as much as 40 per cent during the multi-month festival and wedding season that runs from September to February. 

Raimalani praised India’s government and “Modi ji”, an honorific for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for reducing gold duties.

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Column chart of tariff cut triggers import leap last month showing Indian gold imports

Expectations of rapid interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have been the main driver of gold’s huge rally this year, according to analysts. Lower borrowing costs increase the attraction of assets with no yield, such as bullion, and are also likely to weigh on the dollar, in which gold is denominated.

The Fed cut rates by half a per cent on Wednesday, pushing gold to yet another record high, just below $2,600. 

But strong demand for gold jewellery and bars, as well as buying by central banks, have also helped buoy prices. 

India accounted for about a third of gold jewellery demand last year, and has become the world’s second-largest bar and coin market, according to data from the World Gold Council, an industry body.

However, that demand has meant that domestic gold prices in India are quickly catching up to the level they were at before the tariff duty cut, according to Harshal Barot, senior research consultant at Metals Focus. 

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“That entire benefit [of the tariff cut] has kind of vanished,” said Barot. “Now that prices are going up again, we will have to see if consumers still buy as usual.”

Jewellery buying had been flagging before the cut in import duty, with demand in India in the first half of 2024 at its lowest level since 2020, according to the World Gold Council.

India’s central bank has also been on a gold buying spree, adding 42 tonnes of gold to its reserves during the first seven months of the year — more than double its purchases for the whole of 2023. 

A person familiar with the Reserve Bank of India’s thinking called the gold purchases a “routine” part of its foreign exchange reserve and currency stability management.

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Line chart of  showing Rate cut expectations send gold to record high

In China, the world’s biggest physical buyer of gold, high prices have meant fewer jewellery sales, but more sales of gold bars and coins, which surged 62 per cent in the second quarter compared with a year earlier.

“We observed strong positive correlation between gold investment demand and the gold price,” wrote the World Gold Council, referring to China.

All of this has helped support the physical market and mitigate the impact that high prices can have in eroding demand. 

“It acts as a stable foundation for demand,” said Paul Wong, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management. “In parts of Asia, gold is readily convertible into currency,” making it popular for savings, he said.

Western investor demand has also been a big factor in bullion’s rally, with a net $7.6bn flowing into gold-backed exchange traded funds over the past four months. 

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After hitting a fresh high on Wednesday, analysts warn there could be a correction in the gold price.

“When you have this scale of anticipation [of rate cuts], for this long, there is room for disappointment,” said Adrian Ash, London-based director of research at BullionVault, an online gold marketplace. “I think there is scope for a pullback in precious alongside other assets.”

Whether or not gold pulls back from its record highs, Indian jewellery demand looks set to remain strong through the coming wedding season, according to MK Jewels’ Raimalani.

Soaring prices of bullion have been no deterrent to his customers, he added. “Indians are the happiest when prices go high because they already own so much gold. It’s like an investment.”

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‘Doomsday’ Glacier Is Set to Melt Faster

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‘Doomsday’ Glacier Is Set to Melt Faster

Tidal action on the underside of the Thwaites Glacier in the Antarctic will “inexorably” accelerate melting this century, according to new research by British and American scientists. The researchers warn the faster melting could destabilize the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, leading to its eventual collapse.

The massive glacier—which is roughly the size of Florida—is of particular interest to scientists because of the rapid speed at which it is changing and the impact its loss would have on sea levels (the reason for its “Doomsday” moniker). It also acts as an anchor holding back the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Warmed ocean water melts doomsday glacier faster
Yasin Demirci—Anadolu/Getty Images

More than 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) thick in places, Thwaites has been likened to a cork in a bottle. Were it to collapse, sea levels would rise by 65 centimeters (26 inches). That’s already a significant amount, given oceans are currently rising 4.6 millimeters a year. But if it led to the eventual loss of the entire ice sheet, sea levels would rise 3.3 meters.

While some computer models suggest reductions in greenhouse gas emissions under the 2015 Paris Agreement may mitigate the glacier’s retreat, the outlook for the glacier remains “grim,” according to a report by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), a project that includes researchers from the British Antarctic Survey, the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.K.’s Natural Environment Research Council.

Thwaites has been retreating for more than 80 years but that process has accelerated in the past 30, Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist who contributed to the research, said in a news release. “Our findings indicate it is set to retreat further and faster.” Other dynamics that aren’t currently incorporated into large-scale models could speed up its demise, the new research shows. 

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Using a torpedo-shaped robot, scientists determined that the underside of Thwaites is insulated by a thin layer of cold water. However, in areas where the parts of the glacier lift off the seabed and the ice begins to float, tidal action is pumping warmer sea water, at high pressure, as far as 10 kilometers under the ice. The process is disrupting that insulating layer and will likely significantly speed up how fast the grounding zone—the area where the glacier sits on the seabed—retreats.

A similar process has been observed on glaciers in Greenland.

The group also flagged a worst-case scenario in which 100-meter-or-higher ice cliffs at the front of Thwaites are formed and then rapidly calve off icebergs, causing runaway glacial retreat that could raise sea levels by tens of centimeters in this century. However, the researchers said it’s too early to know if such scenarios are likely.

A key unanswered question is whether the loss of Thwaites Glacier is already irreversible. Heavy snowfalls, for example, regularly occur in the Antarctic and help replenish ice loss, Michelle Maclennan, a climate scientist with the University of Colorado at Boulder, explained during a news briefing. “The problem though is that we have this imbalance: There is more ice loss occurring than snowfall can compensate for,” she said. 

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Increased moisture in the planet’s atmosphere, caused by global warming evaporating ocean waters, could result in more Antarctic snow—at least for a while. At a certain point, though, that’s expected to switch over to rain and surface melting on the ice, creating a situation where the glacier is melting from above and below. How fast that happens depends in part on nations’ progress to slow climate change.

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David Lammy seeks emergency boost to aid cash to offset rising cost of migrant hotels

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Britain’s foreign secretary David Lammy is pushing for an emergency top-up to development spending as ballooning costs of supporting asylum seekers threaten to drain overseas aid to its lowest level since 2007.

The UK government spent £4.3bn hosting asylum seekers and refugees in Britain in the last financial year, more than a quarter of its £15.4bn overseas aid budget, according to official data. This more than consumed the £2.5bn increases in the aid budget scheduled between 2022 and 2024 by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

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People familiar with Lammy’s thinking say he fears that if Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, resists calls to at least match Hunt’s offer, the aid budget will be further eviscerated, undermining the government’s ambitions on the global stage.

Currently, the housing of asylum seekers in hotels is controlled by the Home Office but largely paid for out of the aid budget, a set-up introduced in 2010 when spending on the programme was relatively modest.

In the longer term, development agencies and some Foreign Office officials want the costs capped or paid for by the Home Office itself.

However, such a move would be politically fraught, the people said, as it would require billions of pounds of extra funding for the Home Office at a time the government is preparing widespread cuts across departments.

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Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, is due to attend a string of upcoming international events, starting with the UN general assembly this month, then a Commonwealth summit in Samoa, a G20 meeting in Brazil, and COP-29 climate talks in Azerbaijan later this autumn.

International partners will be looking at these meetings for signs that the change of government in the UK marks a change in direction on development.

Britain’s leading role was eroded by Rishi Sunak after he cut the previously ringfenced spending from 0.7 per cent of gross national income to 0.5 per cent when he was chancellor in 2020.

“When he turns up at the UN next week and the G20 and COP a few weeks later, the PM has a unique opportunity to reintroduce the UK under Labour as a trustworthy partner that sees the opportunity of rebooting and reinvesting in a reformed fairer international financial system,” said Jamie Drummond, co-founder of aid advocacy group One.

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“But to be that trusted partner you need to be an intentional investor — not an accidental cutter.”

Speaking on Tuesday in a speech outlining UK ambitions to regain a leading role in the global response to climate change, Lammy said the government wanted to get back to spending 0.7 per cent of GNI on overseas aid but that it could not be done overnight.   

“Part of the reason the funding has not been there is because climate has driven a migration crisis,” he said. “We have ended up in this place where we made a choice to spend development aid on housing people across the country and having a huge accommodation and hotel bill as a consequence,” he said.

Under OECD rules, some money spent in-country on support for refugees and asylum seekers can be classified as aid because it constitutes a form of humanitarian assistance.

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But the amount the UK has been spending on refugees from its aid budget has shot up from an average of £20mn a year between 2009-2013 to £4.3bn last year, far more than any other OECD donor country, according to Bond, the network of NGOs working in international development.

Spending per refugee from the aid budget has also risen from an average of £1,000 a year in 2009-2013 to around £21,500 in 2021, largely as a result of the use of hotels to accommodate asylum seekers.

The Independent Commission for Aid Impact watchdog argues that the Home Office has had little incentive to manage the funds carefully because they come from a different department’s budget.

In her July 29 speech outlining the dire fiscal straits that Labour inherited from the previous Conservative government, Reeves projected the cost of the asylum system would rise to £6.4bn this year.

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Labour was hoping to cut this by at least £800mn, she said, by ending plans to deport migrants to Rwanda. A Home Office official said the government was also ensuring that asylum claims were dealt with faster and those ineligible deported quickly.

But the Foreign Office projects that on current trends, overseas aid as a proportion of UK income (when asylum costs are factored in) will drop to 0.35 per cent of national income by 2028.

Without emergency funding to plug the immediate cost of housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, that will happen as soon as this year, according to Bond, bringing overseas aid levels to their lowest as a proportion of national income, since 2007.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said: “The UK’s future [official development assistance] budget will be announced at the Budget. We would not comment on speculation.”

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AI translation now ‘good enough’ for Economist to deploy

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AI translation now 'good enough' for Economist to deploy

The Economist has deployed AI-translated content on its budget-friendly “snack-sized” app Espresso after deciding the technology had reached the “good enough” mark.

Ludwig Siegele, senior editor for AI initiatives at The Economist, told Press Gazette that AI translation will never be a “solved problem”, especially in journalism because it is difficult to translate well due to its cultural specificities.

However he said it has reached the point where it is good enough to have introduced AI-powered, in-app translations in French, German, Mandarin and Spanish on The Economist’s “bite-sized”, cut-price app Espresso (which has just over 20,000 subscribers).

Espresso has also just been made free to high school and university students aged 16 and older globally as part of a project by The Economist to make its journalism more accessible to audiences around the world.

Siegele said that amid “lots of hype” about AI, the questions to ask are: “What is it good for? Does it work? And does it work with what we’re trying to do?”

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He added that the project to make The Economist’s content “more accessible to more people” via Espresso was a “good point to start”.

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“The big challenge of AI is the technology, at least for us, is not good enough,” he continued. “It’s interesting, but to really develop a product, I think in many cases, it’s not good enough yet. But in that case, it worked.

“I wouldn’t say that translation is a solved problem, it is never going to be a solved problem, especially in journalism, because journalism is really difficult to translate. But it’s good enough for that type of content.”

The Economist is using AI translation tool DeepL alongside its own tech on the backend.

“It’s quite complicated,” Siegele said. “The translation is the least of it at this point. The translation isn’t perfect. If you look at it closely it has its quirks, but it’s pretty good. And we’re working on a kind of second workflow which makes it even better.”

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The AI-translated text is not edited by humans because, Siegele said, the “workflow is so tight” on Espresso which updates around 20 times a day.

“There is no natural thing where we can say ‘okay, now everything is done. Let’s translate, and let’s look at the translations and make sure they’re perfect’. That doesn’t work… The only thing we can do is, if it’s really embarrassing, we’ll take it down and the next version in 20 minutes will be better.”

One embarrassing example, Siegele admitted, is that the tool turned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz into a woman.

But Siegele said a French reader has already got in touch to say: “I don’t read English. This is great. Finally, I can read The Economist without having to put it into Google Translate and get bad translations.”

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The Economist’s AI-translated social videos

The Economist simultaneously launched AI-translated videos on its social platforms in the same four languages.

The videos are all a maximum of 90 seconds meaning it is not too much work to check them – crucial as, unlike the Espresso article translations, they are edited by humans (native language speakers working for The Economist) taking about 15 minutes per video.

For the videos The Economist is using AI video tool Hey Gen. Siegele said: “The way that works is you give them the original video and they do a provisional translation and then you can proofread the translation. So whereas the translations for the app are basically automatic – I mean, we can take them down and we will be able to change them, but at this point, they’re completely automatic – videos are proofread, and so in this way we can make sure that the translations are really good.”

In addition they are using “voice clones” which means journalists who speak in a video have some snippets of themselves given to Hey Gen to build and that is used to create the finished product.

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The voice clones are not essential, Siegele explained, as translations can be done automatically regardless. Journalists can opt out of having their voices used in this way, and any data stored will be deleted if the employee leaves The Economist. But the clones do mean the quality is “much better”.

They have a labelling system for the app articles and videos that can show they are “AI translated” or “AI transformed”. But, Siegele said, they are “not going to have a long list of AI things we may have used to build this article for brainstorming or fact checking or whatever, because in the end it’s like a tool, it’s like Google search. We are still responsible, and there’s almost always a human except for edge cases like the Espresso translations or with podcast transcripts…”

Economist ‘will be strategic’ when choosing how to roll out AI

Asked whether the text translation could be rolled out to more Economist products, Siegele said: “That’s of course a goal but it remains to be seen.”

He said that although translation for Espresso is automated, it would not be the goal to do the same throughout The Economist.

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He also said they still have to find out if people are “actually interested” and if they can “develop a translation engine that is good enough”.

“But I don’t think we will become a multi-linguistic, multi-language publication anytime soon. We will be much more strategic with what we what we translate… But I think there is globally a lot of demand for good journalism, and if the technology makes it possible, why not expand the access to our content?

“If it’s not too expensive – and it was too expensive before. It’s no longer.”

Other ways The Economist is experimenting with AI, although they have not yet been implemented, include a style bot and fact-checking.

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Expect to see “some kind of summarisation” of articles, Siegele continued, “which probably will go beyond the five bullet points or three bullet points you increasingly see, because that’s kind of table stakes. People expect that. But there are other ways of doing it”.

He also suggested some kind of chatbot but “not an Economist GPT – that’s difficult and people are not that interested in that. Perhaps more narrow chatbots”. And said versioning, or repurposing articles for different audiences or different languages, could also follow.

“The usual stuff,” Siegele said. “There’s only so many good ideas out there. We’re working on all of them.” But he said he wants colleagues to come up with solutions to their problems rather than him as “the AI guy” imposing things.

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Kentucky sheriff held over fatal shooting of judge in court

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Kentucky sheriff held over fatal shooting of judge in court

A Kentucky sheriff has been arrested after fatally shooting a judge in his chambers, police say.

District Judge Kevin Mullins died at the scene after being shot multiple times in the Letcher County Courthouse, Kentucky State Police said.

Letcher County Sheriff Shawn Stines, 43, has been charged with one count of first-degree murder.

The shooting happened on Thursday after an argument inside the court, police said, but they have not yet revealed a motive.

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Officials said Mullins, 54, was shot multiple times at around 14:00 local time on Thursday at the court in Whitesburg, Kentucky, a small rural town about 150 miles (240km) south-east of Lexington.

Sheriff Stines was arrested at the scene without incident, Kentucky State Police said. They did not reveal the nature of the argument before the shooting.

According to local newspaper the Mountain Eagle, Sheriff Stines walked into the judge’s outer office and told court employees that he needed to speak alone with Mullins.

The two entered the judge’s chambers, closing the door behind them. Those outside heard gun shots, the newspaper reported.

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Sheriff Stines reportedly walked out with his hands up and surrendered to police. He was handcuffed in the courthouse foyer.

The state attorney general, Russell Coleman, said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that his office “will fully investigate and pursue justice”.

Kentucky State Police spokesman Matt Gayheart told a news conference that the town was shocked by the incident

“This community is small in nature, and we’re all shook,” he said.

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Mr Gayheart said that 50 employees were inside the court building when the shooting occurred.

No-one else was hurt. A school in the area was briefly placed on lockdown.

Kentucky Supreme Court Chief Justice Laurance B VanMeter said he was “shocked by this act of violence”.

Announcing Judge Mullins’ death on social media, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said: “There is far too much violence in this world, and I pray there is a path to a better tomorrow.”

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