Why Platforms Fail to Keep Users Engaged

Crypto Platforms Seek to Improve User Engagement Through Prediction Markets

Maintaining consistent user activity on cryptocurrency platforms remains a significant challenge, despite initial interest in onboarding new users. Recently, analytics and prediction market trends have shed light on this ongoing issue, highlighting the difficulty crypto projects face in fostering sustained engagement beyond the early stages.

Data compiled by analytics firm Dune and market maker Keyrock analyzed monthly cohorts of new active users across 275 crypto projects, including networks, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, wallets, and trading applications. The findings revealed that Polymarket’s retention rate exceeded over 85% of other protocols sampled, indicating relatively strong user retention. However, overall, the study emphasizes how rare long-term engagement remains within the crypto sector. Low retention rates are especially critical in markets that rely on frequent participation and liquidity, as weak user retention can signal superficial growth or declining activity.

Why Prediction Markets Are Attractive for Crypto Platforms

Prediction markets introduce a different kind of engagement compared to traditional crypto apps. By anchoring activities to real-world events such as elections, sports competitions, or macroeconomic data releases, these markets create recurring reasons for users to come back. This event-driven approach fosters more frequent participation, moving beyond the typical short-term speculation that often characterizes crypto trading. Consequently, prediction markets can help reduce dependency on incentives to sustain activity, encouraging habitual usage rather than one-off trades.

This strategic shift may explain why leading crypto platforms are increasingly experimenting with integrating prediction markets into their offerings. Platforms recognizing the challenge of maintaining continuous activity amid periods of low volatility may see value in features that promote regular engagement, establishing a more stable user base.

Crypto Entities Entering the Prediction Market Arena

Several notable crypto organizations are making strides into prediction markets. Coinbase, Gemini, Phantom, and Bitnomial Clearinghouse are among the firms signaling their entry into this sector. Recently, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase plans to launch tokenized equities and prediction markets, following leaks from researcher Jane Manchun Wong indicating upcoming features on the platform.

Meanwhile, Phantom announced a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users to trade tokenized event-based positions within their wallet app, enhancing user interaction with prediction markets. Additionally, Bitnomial received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate prediction markets and provide clearing services, marking a significant step for the industry. In the United States, Gemini launched an in-house prediction market available across all 50 states, aiming to integrate crypto trading and event-based betting into a single app experience.