Bitcoin price recovered from the $62,700 area as buyers defended a key support zone, but ETF outflows, weak trend signals, and heavy overhead liquidity continue to limit the rebound.

Bitcoin price action today

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price traded near $63,650 on Aug. 17, up about 1.2% on the day after recovering from an intraday low of $62,751.

The move followed several unsuccessful attempts by sellers to push BTC below the $62,500–$62,700 region. Bitcoin had fallen from above $65,000 earlier in August, leaving the market vulnerable to a deeper correction before buyers returned near monthly support.

BTC reached an intraday high of $63,717 during the recovery. The bounce also moved the price above the $63,166 level, which marks the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from $57,803 to $82,864.

Holding above that retracement level keeps Bitcoin inside the range formed after its June sell-off. However, the daily chart shows that BTC has not yet reversed the wider decline from its May peak.

The recovery coincided with modest gains in US equity futures. Nasdaq 100 futures rose as technology shares led a broader risk-asset rebound, while lower expectations for another aggressive Federal Reserve rate increase supported demand for Bitcoin.

The dollar fell to a 10-day low as Treasury yields eased. A weaker dollar can support assets priced in dollars, although elevated bond yields remain a source of competition for capital.

What is driving Bitcoin’s rebound?

Bitcoin’s immediate recovery came from buying pressure around $62,500 rather than a clear improvement in institutional demand. The level has acted as support several times since late July, encouraging short-term traders to buy after the latest decline.

The 4-hour chart shows that momentum improved as BTC moved back toward $63,700. The relative strength index rose to 58.76 from near 40, while its signal average remained lower at 43.57.

An RSI reading above 50 indicates that short-term buying momentum has overtaken selling momentum. Bitcoin still needs to hold the recovery through several 4-hour closes because previous rebounds in August stalled between $64,500 and $65,500.

The Supertrend indicator also shows that the reversal remains incomplete. BTC was trading slightly below the indicator’s resistance line near $63,714 at the time of the chart, while another important level stood near $64,344.

A sustained move above both levels would give buyers more control and place the early-August highs back in view. Rejection near the same area would leave Bitcoin exposed to another test of $63,000.

US ETF outflows keep Bitcoin bulls cautious

The rebound has developed despite continued withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. According to SoSoValue data, the products recorded $389.71 million in combined net outflows between Aug. 10 and Aug. 14.

Investors withdrew $144.67 million on Monday, followed by further outflows of $61.16 million on Wednesday, $131.13 million on Thursday, and $57.63 million on Friday.

The weekly withdrawals followed the funds’ strongest inflow week since April, suggesting that US institutional demand has not yet established a steady recovery. Continued redemptions could make it harder for Bitcoin to sustain a move above $65,000.

US regulatory expectations have also weakened. Polymarket traders assigned the CLARITY Act a roughly 20% chance of becoming law in 2026 on Aug. 17, down from above 80% earlier in the year.

The decline followed the Senate’s failure to advance the crypto market structure legislation before its recess. Lower passage odds do not directly determine Bitcoin’s price, but they reflect fading expectations that US lawmakers will provide clear rules for crypto markets this year.

Bitcoin liquidation map points to $64,000 battle

CoinGlass’s one-week liquidation heatmap shows large concentrations of leveraged positions above Bitcoin’s current price.

The nearest major liquidity band sits around $64,000–$64,200. A brighter and larger cluster appears between approximately $64,700 and $64,900, while additional positions are concentrated above $65,000.

Price often moves toward areas with heavy liquidity because those levels contain stop orders and liquidation points. If Bitcoin clears $64,200, forced closures of short positions could accelerate the move toward $64,800 and then $65,500.

The heatmap also shows a large downside cluster near $62,200–$62,300. Failure to hold $62,700 could therefore pull the market toward that liquidity before buyers get another opportunity to defend the broader range.

Lower liquidity also appears around $61,500, with the daily swing low near $57,800 remaining the larger bearish reference point.

The wide separation between major liquidation zones means BTC could experience sharp price swings even if the overall daily range remains unchanged.

Bitcoin must reclaim $65,500 to change the trend

Analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin had held above $62,000 but needed to break $65,500 to develop stronger bullish momentum.

“Bitcoin held above the $62,000 level and is now bouncing back,” Pillows wrote on X.

He identified $61,900 as the main downside threshold and said a loss of that level could expose the $59,000–$60,000 region.

The daily chart supports a cautious outlook. The Aroon Down reading stood at 42.86%, while Aroon Up was at 0%, showing that the market had not recently established a meaningful new high. Bear Bull Power also remained negative at -834.98, indicating that sellers retained an advantage on the wider timeframe despite the daily gain.

For the bullish case, Bitcoin must first close above $63,700 and $64,344. A break through the liquidation clusters near $64,800 would then allow buyers to challenge $65,500, followed by the June resistance around $67,376.

A daily close above $67,376 would mark a stronger change in market structure and open a possible move toward the 50% Fibonacci level at $70,333.

The bearish case begins with another rejection below $64,000. A drop through $63,166 would weaken the latest recovery, while losses below $62,200 and $61,900 could trigger liquidations toward $60,000.

Geopolitical and energy-market risks may add to that volatility. Notably, Brent crude rose above $89 as US-Iran negotiations remained stalled and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed.

Only five commodity vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, compared with 31 during the previous weekend. Higher oil prices could renew inflation concerns and keep US interest rates elevated, limiting the amount of capital available for risk assets.

Bitcoin’s rebound has therefore protected the $62,500 floor, but the move remains a recovery inside a broader range. A break above $65,500 would strengthen the bullish case, while a loss of $61,900 would shift attention back to $59,000–$60,000.

Bitcoin is starting the new week around $63,000, but the market’s technical outlook remains weighed down by history: traders are watching for confirmation of a weekly breakdown after last week’s close slipped below Bitcoin’s long-term 200-week moving average (SMA).

At the same time, macro catalysts are building. Federal Reserve minutes from the July meeting are due this week, and Japan’s second-quarter GDP release underscored risks to global liquidity even as U.S. equities hit fresh highs—an unusual backdrop that some on-chain and sentiment analysts say is leaving Bitcoin sidelined.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin traded in a roughly $57,700 to $67,300 range, and last week’s close fell below the 200-week SMA near $64,216.
• Options pricing suggests close to a 70% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates at the September meeting, following softer inflation signals earlier.
• Japan Q2 GDP came in below expectations, adding to concerns about “global tightening” and potential knock-on effects for risk assets.
• Glassnode highlights a sentiment mismatch: consumer confidence is near decade lows while U.S. stocks reach record territory.
• CryptoQuant points to growing whale-driven exchange inflows, which are reversing some of the prior trend of BTC moving off exchanges.

Weekly close below the 200-week SMA reignites bear-market parallels

After last Sunday’s weekly close, Bitcoin saw a modest rebound, posting local highs near $63,655 on Bitstamp. However, TradingView data suggests the broader week is beginning with price action still trapped inside a narrow consolidation band, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish a decisive move.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen emphasized that BTC/USD has returned below the 200-week SMA. In earlier reporting from Cointelegraph, the 200-week line was described as a defining feature of the 2022 bear market—acting as resistance after Bitcoin capitulated below it in August before entering a long bottoming phase.

“What is interesting is how in both summer 2022/2026, Bitcoin capitulated below the 200W SMA, then bounced, then gave it up in mid-August,” Cowen wrote on X.

https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2089204784209269167

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Traders are also watching specific levels. Rekt Capital said Bitcoin failed to reach his targeted weekly-close level of $63,220, which he argues keeps the door open for additional downside. In his view, a rejection from that zone would confirm a breakdown and potentially push price lower within the existing approximate $58,000 to $66,000 range.

“A rejection from $63,220 would fully confirm the breakdown and send price lower within the current ~$58,000-$66,000 Range,” Rekt Capital wrote on X.

https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2089272172879507805

Fed minutes and odds of a hold: markets shift from hawkishness to pause

This week’s macro focus centers on the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for manufacturing and services, alongside the July Federal Reserve minutes expected on Wednesday.

Recent inflation data has been influential in shaping expectations. Cointelegraph previously noted that last week’s CPI and PPI releases pointed to a softer-than-expected inflation trajectory, prompting traders to reconsider the likelihood of additional rate hikes.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in nearly a 70% probability that the Fed will hold rates at the 3.50%–3.75% range for the September meeting. That compares with roughly 42% odds a month earlier.

Analysis from Mosaic Asset Company—citing CPI coming in at 3.4% year-on-year—argues that moderating inflation helps prevent the policy outlook from turning overly hawkish, even though inflation remains far above the Fed’s 2% target. The report also points to how the Fed’s prior meeting ended with policy dissent, and it notes that the split was the largest since 1970.

Separately, Bloomberg quoted Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack discussing the risk that returning inflation to 2% could take years—raising questions about whether public patience would be sufficient if progress toward the target is slow. The point matters for Bitcoin because extended tight or uncertain policy expectations can quickly change the liquidity backdrop that crypto tends to trade against.

What to watch next: the tone of the July minutes—especially any discussion around dissent—may determine whether near-term rate expectations drift further toward “hold” or reprice back toward “hikes.”

Japan’s GDP miss adds liquidity stress even as U.S. equities rally

Risk-asset traders are also monitoring Japan after Q2 GDP data missed expectations. The release showed quarterly and annual growth of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively—below forecasts of 0.5% and 2.0%.

The data arrives as markets look for the Bank of Japan to potentially begin raising rates from current levels around 1.0% in September, a shift tied to surging bond yields and a weakening yen. Cointelegraph previously reported that Japan and the U.S. conducted a rare joint intervention in yen markets after JPY/USD hit multi-decade lows.

Beyond growth, the GDP print included a notable weakness: the first decline in private consumption in eight quarters. Oxford Economics’ Japan lead economist Norihiro Yamaguchi told CNBC that the boost to consumption from policy measures is already fading and that inflation pressures could increase in the second half as costs filter through—potentially deteriorating purchasing power.

For Bitcoin, the indirect channel is financial conditions. CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. warned that while the situation is not yet a clear “sell risk assets” signal, the market is approaching a critical threshold. In a post on X, he highlighted a combination of conditions that could tighten global financial conditions: Japan’s government bond yields rising further (notably above 3%), additional BOJ rate hikes, a stronger yen, and rising U.S. Treasury yields. He added that if these factors align, normalization of Japan’s rates could end up pressuring both stocks and Bitcoin.

What to watch next: whether Japan’s yield and yen dynamics stay contained or accelerate—because traders often treat FX and sovereign yields as leading indicators of cross-asset liquidity.

Sentiment and ETF flows: Bitcoin risks being left out of the “capital rotation”

While macro uncertainty builds, some analysts argue the bigger issue may be positioning. Glassnode, in its “The Week Onchain” newsletter, described a divergence between Bitcoin and equities: U.S. consumer confidence remains among the weakest readings of the past decade, even as the stock market has reached an all-time high and stays near those levels.

Glassnode said the contradiction looks less puzzling once the driver is identified: households anticipating higher living costs and a softer economy may be reallocating away from cash and into assets, with equities absorbing much of that flow. The firm also pointed out that the S&P 500 reached all-time highs and that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is expected to decline further in August.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is not participating in that same rotation. A key sign would be whether institutional inflows return to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in a sustained way.

Cointelegraph’s article cites that last week spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $267.2 million, based on data from Farside Investors. It also notes that only one out of five trading days ended with net inflows, totaling just $7.8 million.

What to watch next: whether outflows extend or reverse. Sustained inflows would directly challenge the idea that Bitcoin is being ignored by the same sentiment-driven capital that is supporting equities.

Exchange reserve shifts: whale inflows boost liquidity available to trade

On-chain supply dynamics are adding another layer of pressure. CryptoQuant analysis argues that whale activity is increasing exchange inflows and contributing to a reversal in BTC leaving exchanges—an important nuance because exchange balances can affect how much BTC is available for trading or hedging.

The report highlights that Binance’s whale ratio reached 0.71 on Aug. 10, the highest since early March. CryptoQuant also said Binance’s BTC reserves totaled 674,332 BTC on Sunday, up 2.57% month-to-date and at their highest level since November 2025.

“Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of BTC available for trading or hedging,” CryptoQuant commented.

The broader context matters: Cointelegraph previously reported that exchange activity had been skewed toward derivatives as Bitcoin has traded in a tight range since early June. In that earlier coverage, Binance futures volume was noted as significantly larger than spot volume in early August, reinforcing the idea that the market’s “tight range” behavior may be fueled as much by leverage and hedging as by spot demand.

For traders and long-term investors, the next signals are likely to come from three directions: the Fed minutes’ implications for policy expectations, whether Japan’s rates and yen continue to tighten financial conditions, and whether ETF flows and exchange-reserve trends move in a way that either reconnects Bitcoin to broader risk appetite—or further isolates it.

Key takeaways

• Pi Network edges higher on Monday as buyers defend the $0.0839 support level following two consecutive daily declines.
• The Pi Core Team released Node version 0.6.2 after successfully testing distributed computing capabilities across the network.
• A break below $0.0786 could invalidate the recent channel breakout, while a recovery above $0.1000 could strengthen the bullish outlook.

Pi Network (PI) edges higher on Monday as buyers attempt to defend the key $0.0839 support level following two consecutive days of losses.

The mild recovery comes after the Pi Core Team released a new Node upgrade focused on advancing the network’s distributed computing capabilities. However, PI’s technical outlook remains mixed, with weak derivatives activity and indecisive momentum limiting confidence in a sustained rebound.

Weak market sentiment weighs on Pi Network

Pi Network remains a highly speculative cryptocurrency whose price is heavily influenced by broader market conditions, retail demand and the strength of its community.

CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 38 on Monday, reflecting cautious sentiment and reduced risk appetite among investors.

Renewed geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Lebanon, the United States and Iran have contributed to uncertainty across risk assets. This defensive environment could make it more difficult for speculative tokens such as PI to attract fresh capital.

The Pi Network community continues to anticipate further ecosystem development around its reported base of 18 million Know Your Customer-verified users.

The Pi Core Team released version 0.6.2 of its Node software on Saturday. The upgrade follows a successful test of distributed computing capabilities across Pi Nodes and could provide a foundation for additional network utilities.

Expanding the role of individual Nodes beyond transaction validation could strengthen the network’s functionality and provide new use cases for participants. However, the upgrade’s long-term impact will depend on whether developers introduce applications that generate sustainable user demand.

Social activity showed a modest increase following the announcement. Santiment data indicates that Pi Network’s Social Dominance rose to 0.01% on Sunday from 0.009% on Saturday. Social Volume also increased to 12 from 8 over the same period.

The figures suggest that the Node upgrade generated slightly more discussion, although overall social engagement remains limited.

Pi Network’s derivatives market continues to show reduced trader participation. According to CoinAnk, PI futures Open Interest declined to $8.81 million from $9.12 million on Friday.

Open Interest measures the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts. A decline generally indicates that traders are closing leveraged positions or reducing their exposure.

The continued reduction in PI futures Open Interest suggests that speculative interest is weakening despite the latest technical upgrade and Monday’s mild price recovery.

Pi Network struggles to extend falling-channel breakout

Pi Network maintains a bearish short-term bias as its price consolidates below $0.0900.

PI previously broke above a falling-channel pattern on the daily chart, creating the possibility of a bullish reversal. However, the token has failed to produce meaningful upside follow-through, reflecting weak buying demand.

At the time of writing, buyers are defending the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0839. The retracement is measured from the recent decline between $0.1341 and $0.0703.

A sustained break below $0.0839 could expose the former channel resistance trendline near $0.0786. A decisive daily close below this level would weaken the bullish breakout structure and raise the risk of deeper losses.

Pi Network’s daily momentum indicators provide little evidence of a strong recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains only marginally above its signal line and is at risk of forming a bearish crossover. Such a move would indicate that downside momentum is beginning to strengthen.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 45, below its neutral midpoint of 50. This reading reflects modest bearish pressure but remains consistent with range-bound trading rather than an oversold market.

On the upside, the psychological threshold at $0.1000 represents the first major resistance level.

This area is reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1022, creating a meaningful supply zone where sellers could limit any recovery.

A decisive breakout above $0.1022 would strengthen PI’s recovery prospects and could open the way toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1190.

Until PI generates stronger buying demand and derivatives participation begins to recover, its near-term outlook is likely to remain cautious.

Sterling enters this week on a mixed footing. Last month’s Bank of England decision struck a notably hawkish tone, with the vote split 6-3 in favor of holding rates, three members pushed for a hike, a signal the Bank remains genuinely worried about inflation as Middle East-driven energy costs work through the economy. Yet political uncertainty continues to simmer following Keir Starmer’s unexpected June resignation, leaving fiscal credibility, and by extension sterling, more sensitive than usual to how Labour manages the transition.

The kiwi, meanwhile, is being propped up almost entirely by rate expectations. Markets currently price an 88% probability of an RBNZ hike in September, even after New Zealand’s unemployment rate climbed to a decade-high 5.6%. UBS argues the labor data isn’t as bearish as it looks, since the rise was driven mainly by more people entering the workforce rather than layoffs, keeping the central bank’s tightening path intact. Softer inflation expectations and a weaker July manufacturing PMI, however, have started to inject some doubt into just how far the RBNZ can realistically go.

The result: a pound navigating political noise against a kiwi riding hawkish rate bets that may be more fragile than markets currently assume.

Technical Analysis of GBP/NZD

As GBP/NZD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since early June, with a descending trendline from July’s highs near 2.3550 converging with an ascending trendline off June’s lows, both meeting right around current price near 2.2900-2.2980, where the 100-period EMA also sits. This confluence, together with the well-established 2.2900-2.3100 support and resistance zone, marks a decisive juncture for the pair.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and reclaim the 100-period EMA, the path would open toward the 2.3100 resistance, the upper boundary of the recent range. A confirmed break above this zone, and the descending trendline itself, would signal a genuine shift in momentum, opening the door toward a retest of the July highs near 2.3550.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 2.2900 support would expose the broader downtrend that has dominated since early July, with price risking a slide back toward the 2.2800 area and beyond, as the months-long descending structure reasserts itself.

With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, GBP/NZD looks primed for a decisive move—will sterling’s political noise finally give way to the kiwi’s rate story, or does this range hold just a little longer?

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