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Bitcoin drifts lower as $81.3k emerges as the market’s key fault line: Asia Morning Briefing
Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Since October’s flash crash, crypto has been trading around a single fault line.
Glassnode identifies bitcoin’s True Market Mean near $81.3k as the level separating time-driven drawdowns from more aggressive loss realization. In the post-October regime, that level has taken on added weight.
The correlation data helps explain why that level matters beyond bitcoin itself. Over the last 90 days, and especially since the October 10 flash crash, large-cap crypto assets have remained tightly correlated with bitcoin, reinforcing its role as the market’s anchor.
As a result, a sustained break below the True Market Mean would not just deepen losses in already weak tokens.
Glassnode data shows that when bitcoin trades below this level for extended periods, selling pressure has historically spread more broadly across the market.
With large-cap assets still moving closely with bitcoin while high-beta tokens have already sold off, a move below $81.3k would risk pulling that weakness back into the market’s core.
Taken together, the picture is less about calling a breakdown and more about identifying where the market’s balance lies. As long as bitcoin holds above the True Market Mean, losses can remain uneven.
But if $81.3k gives way and fails to recover, Glassnode’s historical data suggests that selling pressure would be more likely to spread beyond the long tail. In a post-October market defined by thin liquidity and tight large-cap correlations, that would mark a shift from a slow, frustrating drawdown toward a more synchronized reset.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin was little changed near $86,400, down about 1% on the day and roughly 6.5% over the past week as the recent pullback extended.
ETH: Ether traded around $2,830, down about 3.6% over the past 24 hours and roughly 15% on the week, underperforming bitcoin as the broader market weakened.
Gold: Gold has surged to record highs in 2025, with prices doubling over two years to above $4,300 an ounce, as central bank buying, geopolitical risk, U.S. fiscal concerns, and a widening investor base prompt major banks to forecast prices rising toward $5,000 in 2026.
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