The unemployment rate in Wales in the three months to last November dipped 1.2% shows ONS figures

Wales has bucked the trend with a sharp fall in unemployment, while for the UK as a whole the level has risen to a near five-year high with the jobless rate among young people at its worst level for more than a decade, official figures show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK rate of unemployment lifted to 5.2% in the three months to December, up from 5.1% in the three months to November.

However, for Wales there was a 1.2% (down 18,000 people to 70,000) fall to 4.5% The number of working age adults in Wales deemed as being economically inactive is 24.8% (485,000 people) – higher than the overall UK figure of 20.8%.

The fall on July to September last year was the highest of any nation or region of the UK. The only other falls on the quarter were in Northern Ireland, down 0.2% and the east of England, down 0.1%.

However, the Welsh Government’s position is that the ONS figures need to be treated with caution, whether a rise or the latest unexpected fall, due to ongoing work to improve Labour Force Survey data.

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A Welsh Government spokesman said: “Evidence from a range of sources suggest the labour market in Wales has followed similar trends to the UK since the pandemic. Latest figures from the Annual Population Survey (APS) show the unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over in Wales was 4.5% compared to the UK rate of 4.2%.

“We have supported about 46,000 jobs this Senedd term through business support, and last week a record 20 renewable energy projects in Wales got UK Government backing with the potential to create thousands more new jobs.

“As we’ve said before, we’re quoting the Annual Population Survey because of concerns about the reliability of Labour Force Survey data. In fact, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) itself advises caution when taking these statistics as the only measure of the labour market in Wales. For greater accuracy it is recommended that a range of sources are used, while the ONS develops a new survey.”

For the UK as a whole unemployment is highest since the three months to January 2021, and outside of the pandemic era, it marks the highest since the autumn of 2015.

Experts said young workers were among the hardest hit, with almost one in six left without a job.

The ONS said the unemployment rate for 16 to 24-year-olds surged to 16.1% in the latest quarter – the highest level since early 2015.

The Resolution Foundation think tank said the UK’s youth unemployment is now higher than the EU average for the first time since records began in 2000, with the rate across Europe at 14.9% in the final three months of last year.

Louise Murphy, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “We must urgently turn our attention to the UK’s unemployment problems.

“At the end of last year almost one-in-six young people who wanted to work couldn’t find a job. Unemployment risks climbing even further in 2026. Getting youth unemployment down in this country – along with the share of young people who aren’t in education or training either – must be a top priority for 2026.”

The weakened jobs market has seen sectors such as retail and hospitality come under particular strain after the Government hiked national insurance contributions and pushed through above-inflation increases in the minimum wage, with some companies cutting jobs and slowing hiring in response.

The Conservatives said the latest rise in the jobless rate was “the predictable result of bad decisions and economic incompetence” by the Labour Government.

Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately said: “Young people are taking the hardest hit.

“Entry-level roles are the first to disappear from Labour’s tax hikes.

“By making hiring more expensive and more risky, Labour are ensuring school leavers and graduates never even get a foot in the door.”

Most economists had expected the rate of UK unemployment to remain at 5.1% in the latest quarter.

Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said: “The figures show there are 381,000 more people in work since the start of 2025, but we know there is more to do to get people into jobs.

“Our £1.5 billion drive to tackle youth unemployment is a key priority and this month we announced that we’ll make it easier for young people to find and secure an apprenticeship, which comes on top of our investment to create 50,000 new apprenticeships.”

The ONS added that regular wage growth fell back once again to is lowest level for almost four years, to 4.2% in the three months to December, against a downwardly revised 4.4% in the three months to November, though it was 0.8% higher after taking Consumer Prices Index inflation into account.

But there was another welcome increase in vacancies, up by 2,000 quarter-on-quarter to 726,000 in the three months to January, which is the second rise in a row.

Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said the data showed “weak hiring activity” and that “more people who were out of work are now actively looking for a job”.

She added the number of unemployed people per vacancy has now reached a new post-pandemic high.

The ONS said redundancies increased by 11,000 to 145,000 in the final quarter of 2025, while the data also showed the number of workers on payrolls fell by 6,000 in the three months to December and is estimated to have dropped by 11,000 in January to 30.3 million.

It comes after recent growth figures showed the economy recorded meagre growth of 0.1% in the final three months of last year amid budget uncertainty and a lacklustre performance in December.

Experts said the data will reinforce expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates again next month, to 3.5% from 3.75% currently.

An expected drop in inflation in data due on Wednesday is set to add to the argument for a rates reduction.

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Eligible business must employ between five and 249 people and be located within a 50-mile radius of the university

Companies in and around Bristol looking to scale up and boost productivity are being encouraged to apply for grant funding from the University of the West of England (UWE). The university has launched the next round of its Scale up 4 Growth (S4G) scheme, which is designed to accelerate the growth of small and medium‑sized enterprises across the region.

Eligible SMEs can apply for 50 per cent match‑funded grants contributing toward projects valued between £20,000 and £80,000.

S4G supports projects that help companies scale, innovate and boost productivity. Funding can be used to address specific challenges or opportunities, such as adopting new technology, developing new products or services, or increasing operational capacity.

The grants aim to support growth activity for SMEs from the UK Government’s eight high-growth sectors: advanced manufacturing; clean energy; creative; defence; digital and tech; financial services; life sciences; and professional and business services.

All funded projects must create at least one full-time equivalent role per £10,000 of grant awarded, ensuring meaningful economic impact for the region.

Eligible businesses must:

• Employ between five and 249 people;
• have a turnover of under £44m or a balance sheet total of under £38m;
• be located and deliver project activity and outcomes within a 50‑mile radius of UWE Bristol;
• and demonstrate clear ambitions to grow, including increased employment and turnover.

According to UWE, proposals should also link to at least one of the five growth challenges facing scale-up and high-growth enterprises including finding talent; building leadership capacity; increasing sales or access to markets; accessing finance or growth capital; and accessing infrastructure.

As well as financial support, participating SMEs will receive one-to-one guidance from the S4G team.

Tracey John, director of research and external engagement at UWE Bristol, said: “We are proud to champion SMEs across the region. At such a pivotal moment for the regional economy, this programme is helping businesses unlock their potential and accelerate their growth. This area is a hub for innovation, and we’re delighted to play a role in driving that momentum forward.”

Applications close at midday on March 12, 2026, and companies will need to complete an expression of interest via the university’s website before receiving an application pack.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.