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Canadians and Mexicans nervously watch the US election

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Getty Images A car transporter driving across the Peace Bridge between Canada and the USGetty Images

The Peace Bridge between Port Erie, Ontario, and Buffalo, New York, carries more than one million trucks, and more than five million cars, every year

As Americans prepare to vote for their next president, Canadians and Mexicans are watching on nervously.

For some Canadians living next to the US border, politics isn’t a topic often discussed.

“You don’t talk politics and you don’t talk religion,” says 85-year-old Ernie, who lives in the Canadian town of Fort Erie, just across the Niagara River from Buffalo, New York.

Yet for others in Fort Erie, Ontario, politics can come up, especially after a few beers, and with a US presidential election fast approaching.

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A short walk from the Peace Bridge that connects the two countries is Southsides Patio Bar & Grill, where US-born bartender Lauren says she frequently has to break up political arguments.

“It happens, especially after a few drinks. Everybody’s voice is heard here,” she laughs while shaking her head.

Some 2,000 miles (3,200 km) southwest in the Mexican border city of Juarez, Sofia Ana is in the Monday morning queue of cars waiting to cross to El Paso, Texas for work.

“There’s better employment opportunities in the US, there’s better benefits,” she explains.

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Ana is one of an estimated 500,000 Mexicans who legally cross the border into the US every week day.

It is in their interest that relations between the two countries remain cordial. “It affects us deeply… it is very intense,” adds Ana from her car window.

With more than 155 million Americans due to vote in the US presidential election on 5 November, it is fair to say that the outcome will be felt well beyond the US. No more so than its largest trading partners Canada and Mexico.

The two-way trade of goods between the US and Mexico totalled $807bn (£621bn) last year, making Mexico the US’s biggest trading partner when it comes to physical items.

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Meanwhile, the US’s goods trade with Canada in 2023 was in second place on $782bn. By comparison the figure for the US and China was $576bn.

Getty Images Cars queuing to enter the US from MexicoGetty Images

More than half a million Mexicans legally travel into the US every day, mostly by car

Mexico and Canada’s future trade with the US could be impacted if Donald Trump wins the US election. This is because he is proposing to introduce substantial import tariffs. These would be 60% for goods from China, and 20% on products from all other countries, apparently including Mexico and Canada.

By contrast, Kamala Harris is widely expected to maintain the current more open trade policies of President Biden. This is despite the fact she voted against the 2020 United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) free trade deal, saying it didn’t go far enough on tackling climate change.

Trump and Harris have “starkly different visions for the future of US economic relations with the world”, said one study in September.

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Back in Juarez, shop owner Adrian Ramos says that US political instability is something business owners like himself have had to get used to. “We’ve seen it all,” he says.

Mr Ramos adds that the result in the US on 5 November will likely impact on his business whoever wins. “If Trump wins, it’s going to take longer to cross over to the States, if Harris wins, it may not, but there will be changes depending on who wins.”

Mexican shop owner Adrian Ramos  looks at the camera

Mexican shop owner Adrian Ramos says that Mexicans will be affected by the US election result no matter who wins

In the rural Canadian township of Puslinch, Ontario, beef farmer Dave Braden is definitely more concerned about Trump returning to the White House.

“The worry with Trump is that he’ll introduce a policy [such as tariffs], and just say ‘get on with it’ and that is threatening,” says Mr Braden, standing between hay bales in front of one of his cattle fields.

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“I think with Harris, we have the assumption that she will recognize the relationship between the two countries and we will work together.”

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is also concerned about the possibility of a second Trump presidency introducing new tariffs. It calculated that tariffs of 10% on Canadian imports (a level that Trump has previously suggested), would cost each Canadian and American $CA1,100 ($800; £615) per year.

The Canadian government has reportedly been talking to Trump’s camp to try to exempt Canada in the event that he does win the election.

Not every Canadian has such fears about Trump though. One Ontario farmer who is supporting him didn’t want to speak on the record, but says he believes the former president is stronger on the economy, which would benefit Canada.

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For Georganne Burke, the Republicans Overseas chapter leader for Canada, it’s no surprise that some Trump supporters don’t speak publicly about him. She says that backing Trump is “not a popular position to be in”.

Recent polling suggests that Harris is significantly more popular than Trump among Canadians.

The USMCA, which was negotiated in 2018 under Trump’s presidency, is up for renegotiation in 2026.

With that on his mind, Canada’s Minister for Innovation, Science and Industry Francois Champagne tells the BBC he is checking the US election polls daily.

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“Because this is such a valued relationship. It’s why I call it this indispensable relationship, because when you look at everything, you realise how indispensable we are to each other,” he explains.

In the run up to the election Mr Champagne is spending time meeting American counterparts of both parties. In his words “connecting the dots”.

“For example, when I meet the governor of South Carolina, which has a plant in the auto sector, I remind him that a lot of the critical minerals are coming from Canada,” he says. “So, it’s making sure that everyone understands that we are joint at the hip in terms of security, supply chain, but also a growth agenda for North America.”

Beef farmer Dave Braden wearing a patterned red shirt and looking at the camera

Beef farmer Dave Braden

Lila Abed, an expert on US-Mexico relations, says that whatever November’s outcome, “there will be three essential topics on the bilateral agenda with Mexico that are going to have to be dealt with immediately” – migration, security and trade.

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“It is telling that [new Mexican president] Claudia Sheinbaum hasn’t designated Mexico’s ambassador to the US,” adds Ms Abed, who is director of the Mexico Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Centre think tank.

“I don’t believe that will be announced until after the US presidential election, because she wants to take into consideration what kind of individual she wants in Washington after the result.”

Looking ahead to 2026, Ms Abed believes the USMCA renegotiation will focus on US efforts to stop increased Chinese investment in Mexico.

“Where Republicans and Democrats actually coincide is on trying to stem or trying to stop Chinese investment in Mexico, which is something that both political parties in the United States are very concerned about,” she says.

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“While I believe that, you know, the tone and the policies will naturally differ depending on who wins the White House, I do believe that the main issues on the bilateral agenda will remain.”

Additional reporting by Vianey Alderete.

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Hainan Airlines to launch Chengdu-Vienna route

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Hainan Airlines to launch Chengdu-Vienna route

This will complement the carrier’s service from Shenzhen to the Austrian capital

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Why Xi Jinping changed his mind on China’s fiscal stimulus

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Why Xi Jinping changed his mind on China’s fiscal stimulus

After resisting calls to intervene, Beijing has made a sudden U-turn. But will the package be enough to get the economy back on track?

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Kamala Harris raises nearly $1bn but Donald Trump catches up in swing states

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Kamala Harris raises nearly $1bn but Donald Trump catches up in swing states

This article is an on-site version of our FirstFT newsletter. Subscribers can sign up to our Asia, Europe/Africa or Americas edition to receive the newsletter every weekday. Explore all of our newsletters here

Today’s agenda: EY fires staff for “cheating”; Mubadala Capital’s private equity push; Chinese share buybacks soar; Navalny’s memoir; and the use and abuse of Orwell


Good morning. We start with the latest updates on the US presidential race, with a Financial Times analysis showing Kamala Harris raised $971mn in the past three months, more than the Trump campaign’s entire haul of $894mn since the start of January 2023.

Who’s donating? The vice-president has received contributions from more than three times the number of individual donors as Donald Trump since she entered the race in July. The Republican former president has been more reliant on billionaires giving through so-called super political action committees, which unlike political candidates can raise unlimited amounts from individuals. Nearly half of Trump’s money has come from super Pacs, and four billionaire donors combined — Timothy Mellon, Miriam Adelson, Elon Musk and Richard Uihlein — have given $395mn to four pro-Trump super Pacs.

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Why it matters: A recent poll shows Trump has all but erased the slender lead Harris had built up in crucial swing states. The poll found that about a quarter of registered voters described themselves as “uncommitted” to either candidate. With just two weeks to go until the November 5 vote, both candidates are criss-crossing the country and splashing out on expensive advertising in the battleground states that could decide the outcome.

We have more on the money race here, and further analysis below:

  • Harris’s economic team: The Democratic candidate is expected to bring in her own people if she wins. We explore her potential choices for Treasury secretary and key policy advisers.

  • Global impact: Strongman leaders around the world would welcome a victory for the Republican former president, writes Gideon Rachman.

Sign up for our US Election Countdown newsletter for the latest updates on the final stretch of the White House race. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

  • Economic data: The IMF publishes its latest world economic outlook and its global financial stability report. The UK has data on public sector finances, and the US has labour figures, both for September.

  • Brics summit: Leaders of the group gather in Kazan, Russia. Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping are set to attend after India yesterday said a deal was reached with China on patrols at their disputed border.

  • Companies: Chanel is expected to announce a deal with the Oxford-Cambridge annual boat race. General Motors, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, Moody’s, Philip Morris International are among those reporting results. Full list in our Week Ahead newsletter.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: EY has fired dozens of US staff for what it called cheating on professional training courses. The dismissals took place last week after an investigation found that some employees had attended more than one online training class at a time during the “EY Ignite Learning Week” in May. Several of the fired employees told the FT they did not believe they were violating EY policy.

2. Exclusive: An arm of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund is preparing a push into private equity markets, spotting what it believes is an opportunity to take over large holdings as buyout groups race to sell assets and return cash to investors. Mubadala Capital has raised $3.1bn for its latest private equity fund, surpassing a $2bn target. Antoine Gara has more details.

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3. Iran’s currency and stocks have declined and most foreign airlines have suspended flights in anticipation of an Israeli retaliatory attack on the Islamic republic. While regime loyalists insist that Tehran is not afraid of a potential war with Israel, many fear that the country’s sanctions-hit economy can ill-afford another cycle of escalation.

4. Share buybacks on mainland China’s biggest exchanges have soared to a record high of Rmb235bn ($33bn) so far this year, more than double last year’s total and far surpassing the previous record of Rmb133bn in 2022. The rush comes amid policymakers’ attempts to revive a flagging stock market.

  • Beijing’s U-turn: After resisting calls for fiscal stimulus for years, today’s Big Read explores why Xi Jinping changed his mind — and whether it will be enough.

5. PureGym plans to make the US its second-biggest market, with more than 300 sites by 2030, as it pursues a $105mn deal to buy dozens of outlets from collapsed chain Blink Fitness. The UK’s largest gym operator has offered to buy “a substantial portion” of Blink’s estate after it was put into Chapter 11 by owner gym group Equinox in August. Read the full story.

News in-depth

Montage shows UK health secretary Wes Streeting against images of an NHS nurse, pound notes, a hospital wall and a frail, elderly person
© FT montage/Reuters/Bloomberg/Getty

Launching a “national conversation” about the future of England’s NHS yesterday, health secretary Wes Streeting admitted it was in the midst of “the worst crisis in its history”. As health leaders press for a substantial funding injection in the UK’s Budget on October 30, the latest data underlines the scale of the strains on the taxpayer-funded system.

Think you can run the UK economy? Step into the chancellor’s shoes and play the FT’s new Budget game.

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We’re also reading . . . 

  • Moldova’s EU bid: Here’s how Russia won over the former Soviet country’s south to deliver an unexpected upset for President Maia Sandu’s referendum to join the bloc.

  • Immersive fashion: Vogue’s next event will go beyond the runway to become a theatrical light show. Is immersive entertainment more than a passing fad?

  • Alexei Navalny: Patriot, the memoir of Vladimir Putin’s murdered opponent, is a worthy testament to his courage, defiance and humour, writes FT Moscow bureau chief Max Seddon.

  • Victims of success: While challenging, the prevalence of today’s mental and physical conditions may actually be a good sign for the human race, writes Stephen Bush.

Graphic of the day

Long regarded as more science fiction than reality, low-cost, high-energy laser weapons are getting renewed attention from the defence sector, as militaries around the world look to the cutting-edge technology as one of the ways to counter cheap new missile threats such as drones.

Graphic explainer showing The DragonFire laser-directed energy weapon/

Take a break from the news

For years, journalists, critics and columnists have vied for George Orwell’s posthumous approval, writes Irish novelist Naoise Dolan for the FT Magazine. How did one of Britain’s greatest writers become the single answer to so many questions, in so many different subjects, for so many people?

An illustrated portrait of a man standing in a cosy room with a typewriter on the table, cricket bats leaning against the wall, and a woman riding a bicycle outside
© Sophia Martineck

Additional contributions from Gordon Smith and Benjamin Wilhelm

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Ministers outline plans to redraw airspace over London airports

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UK ministers have taken a big step towards redesigning the flight paths aircraft use to take off from and land at London airports, in a change that could lead to greener flights but also new noise pollution in parts of the capital.

The Department for Transport and the Civil Aviation Authority on Tuesday announced a consultation on the formation of a new “airspace design service” to redraw “the way planes fly in, out and over the UK”.

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The review by ministers and the regulator will start with the heavily congested airspace over London and the south of England, with ministers vowing to modernise the “highways of the sky” that have barely changed since the 1950s.

Modernising the capital’s airspace offers the prospect of quicker and more direct flights that emit less carbon, but could mean new communities are affected by noise pollution.

The UK’s airspace infrastructure was first designed in the 1950s and 1960s, and based on a fixed network of “way points” that mirror the positions of obsolete ground navigation beacons.

Although the airspace infrastructure has since been refined to account for the rise in air travel, many big routes from major airports have barely changed in decades. Governments have pledged to modernise the UK’s airspace for more than a decade, but progress has been slow.

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“UK airspace is one of the nation’s biggest invisible assets, but it’s been stuck in the past — a 1950’s pilot would find that little has changed,” said aviation minister Mike Kane, as he promised to make air travel “a better experience for all”.

More than 2.6mn aircraft fly through the UK each year, and a wholesale redesign would allow planes to climb and descend more efficiently and rely less on circling airports in holding patterns.

It would build on work by National Air Traffic Services, the UK’s air traffic control provider, which has in recent years redrawn airspace thousands of feet above south-west England, Wales and Scotland.

Martin Rolfe, Nats chief executive, said: “Any initiative that can help speed up the modernisation programme for UK airspace is very welcome, especially in London and the South East. It is some of the busiest and most complex airspace in the world.”

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But some industry figures said trying to redraw London’s highly complex airspace was likely to be contentious because changes to flight paths could trigger new noise pollution.

Still, airlines have called for the changes in response to growing air traffic control problems, which have led to significant delays and cancellations for carriers including British Airways.

It is also part of the aerospace industry’s road map to lowering its carbon emissions to reach net zero by 2050.

Tim Alderslade, chief executive of AirlinesUK, which speaks for carriers, said reform of Britain’s airspace would “not only reduce delays and improve resilience for passengers and cargo operators in what is an increasingly congested system” but also help the sector “achieve net zero emissions”.

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EDITION Hotels to open in The Red Sea, Saudi Arabia

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EDITION Hotels to open in The Red Sea, Saudi Arabia

EDITION Hotels will be opening a second property in Saudi Arabia: the 204-room The Red Sea EDITION

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Perhaps this is why British politicians fear an EU reset

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Your leader “Labour’s unambitious reset with the EU” (FT View, October 18) rightly urged the UK government to do a deal with the EU on youth mobility. For those of us fortunate enough to have worked in a foreign country, the benefits are obvious. It’s not just that one learns much more than on a holiday abroad; and not only that the “foreign” becomes less so. The greatest advantage is seeing our own country in previously unimagined new ways and contexts.

But perhaps that’s what British politicians fear?

Nick Bradbury
Reading, Berkshire, UK

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