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The onward march of Reform has seen the party come “within the margin of error” of topping the first of 2025’s weekly tracker polls for The Independent in a major blow to Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
The Techne UK survey results came in as Nigel Farage prepared to host a major pre-inauguration party in Washington DC and cash in on his friendship with Donald Trump. It suggests Tories are fleeing in large numbers to Reform but Lib Dems are switching to the Tories.
According to the polling of 1,645 voters on Wednesday and Thursday, Labour still leads by one point at 26 per cent, having dropped 1 per cent from before Christmas. The Tories also fell by 1 per cent to 25 per cent but Reform UK is at 23 per cent and up two points.
The Lib Dems trailed in fourth with 12 per cent and Greens on 7 per cent – both unchanged from last month.
It revealed that despite rows with Elon Musk and disagreements over far-right activist Tommy Robinson, as well as councillors quitting the party, Mr Farage and Reform have continued to make a strong advance.
It also suggested that Kemi Badenoch’s speech on where the Tories went wrong has failed to bolster her party. Meanwhile, Labour’s economic woes and criticism of chancellor Rachel Reeves’ policies and China trip have pushed their support further down.
Techne’s chief executive Michela Morizzo pointed out that all three parties are effectively within the margin of error of being the leader in the race for public opinion.
She said: “Our first Westminster tracker poll of 2025 reflects broadly the continued problems the major parties have. Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, who are struggling to make headway in what is a particularly gloomy economic climate as the new year starts, drop one point in national vote share.
“Similarly Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party are also struggling to find their voice and they too start the year dropping one point in national vote share now down.
“It is only Nigel Farage’s Reform UK which continues to show momentum, posting a two-point rise in national vote share. As such, taking any margin of error into account we start the 2025 with Labour, Conservatives and Reform UK all closely positioned as they fight for public support and impact.”
According to the data, 22 per cent of those who voted Conservative in last year’s election have already switched to Reform. Only 7 per cent of Labour 2024 voters have moved to Reform. However, Labour has lost 27 per cent of its voters from the election while the Tories have lost 30 per cent.
But in a more positive finding for Ms Badenoch, almost one in five (18 per cent) of the Lib Dem voters from the 2024 election would now vote Tory – with only 62 per cent remaining loyal to Sir Ed Davey’s party.
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