We’re back, baby!
That’s right, Season 8 of Contender Series is in the books, with 42 new signees joining the UFC roster in what has become the promotion’s single biggest recruitment tool. Now, 42 is fewer than last seasons’ 47 signees, but it’s still a massive influx of talent, and with all these new bright-eyed and bushy-tailed prospects joining the world’s biggest MMA promotion, it’s once again time to separate the wheat from the chaff, the future contenders from the card fillers.
Last season, I separated Contender Series signees into nine different buckets based on their potential, with 10 of the 47 signees being identified as top-tier prospects. And frankly, I did pretty damn well. The collective records of those 10 top-tier prospects is 16-2 in the promotion, with one of those losses being a controversial split decision.
But this year we’re going to do things a little bit differently: instead of nine buckets of nebulous quality, we’re going to simplify things and treat this like an draft board. Prospects are rated by what round of a fictional MMA draft I’d select them in. The rough rubric is as follows:
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Blue Chips: Elite prospects, with the potential to become top-5 fighters in their weight classes, challenge for a title, or even become champion.
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Round 1: Great prospects. Good shot at becoming ranked one day and may even fight for a title.
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Round 2: Good prospects. They’re missing something so they probably won’t challenge for a title, but they have a reasonable shot at earning a ranking.
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Round 3-4: Solid prospects. They lack major upside but can be Day 1 contributors and become a staple of their division for years to come. Maybe they even find their way to a ranking.
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Day 3: Acceptable prospects. Fighters who fill out cards and may stick around for a bit but don’t make much of an impact. Everyone once in a while someone from here might exceed expectations but it’s pretty rare.
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Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA): They did not get a contract but showed flashes of something that suggests they may get signed in the future.
So without further ado, let’s break down the 2024 Contender Series prospect class!
Undrafted Free Agents
An Tuan Ho, Michael Aswell, Jack Duffy, Nick Piccininni, Gauge Young, Igor Cavalcanti, Otar Tanzilov, Aaron Tau, Rose Conciecao, Sean Gauci, Julieta Martinez, Mohamed Ado
Not everyone that goes on Contender Series ends up getting signed, especially as Dana White’s criteria can be a bit inconsistent at times. Plenty of fighters deliver good performances but get snubbed, while other fighters were simply put in there against elite prospects and fell short.
This season there were, frankly, a lot of fighters who flashed enough that I am confident they will at least get another shot on Contender Series, if they don’t get signed to the UFC in a short-notice replacement type of situation. So instead of list all of those fighters (it’s a pretty long list) these 12 fighters represent the best of the bunch.
The most notable names here are both from Week 10: Nick Piccininni and Julieta Martinez. Piccininni fought twice this season, winning his first outing by split decision but not impressing Dana White enough. He then lost in the final episode, but I fully expect Piccininni to fight in the UFC soon. He’s a two-time NCAA All-American at Oklahoma State and has the support of Daniel Cormier. He won’t set the world on fire, but he can be Cody Stamann 2.0.
As for Martinez, she is only 20 years old and dazzled in her Contender Series performance, but White declined to sign her because she is “too young” and “too small.” Instead, White wants her to continue developing outside of the UFC, and honestly, it’s not a terrible idea. Martinez would be a first rounder if she received a contract, but perhaps if she goes back for another year of development, we’re talking about a top-10 pick.
DAY 3
Bruno Lopes, Contavious Romious, Rizvan Kuniev, Andreas Gustafsson, Bogdan Grad, Andrey Pulyaev, Djorden Santos, Seok Hyun Ko, Ahmad Hassanzada, Nick Klein
There’s not a lot to say about this crop of fighters. Each of them won on the show, and did enough to catch White’s attention, but they did not jump off the page as prospects to get excited about. But hey, plenty of uninspiring fighters have made a career in the UFC, winning more than they lose and hanging around.
If you’re looking for possible risers from this group, Rizvan Kuniev actually holds a win over Renan Ferreira in PFL that was overturned to a no-contest after he popped for all the PEDs. The Dagestani is a reasonable fighter, and given how bad heavyweight is, I could see a Shamil Gaziev-like run where he’s on the border of a ranking and in a main event, but don’t envision a lot of long-term success.
If I was putting money down, I’d bet on Bogdan Grad to be the guy who exceeds expectations from this group. Grad’s only career loss is to Tom Nolan on Contender Series last year (a prospect I was very high on) and while he isn’t great at anything, he’s an aggressive scrapper in the vein of Nate Landwehr, so he might carve out a fun career.
Round 3-4
Jose Miguel Delgado, Marco Tulio, Kevin Christian, Daniel Frunza, Torrez Finney, Alberto Montes, Artem Vakhitov, Yadier DelValle, Luis Gurule
This group right here, these are the workhorses. Most of them are a little too old to be a real high-upside prospect, but most of them are ready to jump in and contribute right away, and perhaps a few will event surprise us. Either way, I expect most of this group will hang around the UFC for some time, and there are a few notable standouts from this group.
The first is Torrez Finney who became the first man to win three times on Contender Series after two wins this season. Finney is young and had a few very good traits, but it’s hard to like the long-term ceiling for a 5-foot-8 middleweight, and the man is built like William Knight, so I don’t think he’s making 170.
Next is Alberto Montes who is my favorite fighter from this group. Montes is extremely fun, a bit chaotic (the man attempted a Peruvian necktie), and sort of fights like Charles Oliveira, without the restraint. The issue is that Montes is 30 years old which doesn’t leave him a lot of time in a premium weight class like featherweight, but I could see a Carlos Prates run out of him.
And finally there’s the matter of Artem Vakhitov. Vakhitov is the former GLORY Kickboxing champion who notably holds a win over Alex Pereira and even had Pereira lobby for him to get signed, but I have serious doubts about his ability to transition to MMA the way Pereira did. They just don’t have the same sort of game and Vakhitov has not shown much aptitude for the various parts of MMA thus far.
In all honesty, Vakhitov should probably be in the Day 3 group, but given his story, the UFC may be very selective about his matchmaking so I settled here.
Round 2
Malcolm Wellmaker, Yuneisy Duben, Quillan Salkilld, Nicolle Caliari, Tallison Teixeira, Danylo Voievodkin, Alexia Thainara, Diyar Nurgozhay, Islam Dulatov, Kody Steele, Jonathan Micallef
Now we’re finally into the real prospects here. I firmly believe the people in this group are going to be UFC staples for years to come, and for most of them, there’s just one big issue holding them back from being top prospects. For instance, Wellmaker and Duben are a bit too old to be great prospects, and Teixeira and Voievodkin are great bets to be long-term heavyweights, but lack an A+ trait that is required to be elite in that weight class. Still, this is a collection of talent that could have a number of fighters overachieve from.
As far as best bets to overachieve from this group and become fixtures of the top of their divisions two names stand out: Alexia Thainara and Kody Steele.
Thainara is a plus-athlete with good wrestling and the right mentality, she’s just raw. But at only 26 years old, she just beat the undefeated LFA champion and there’s plenty of time for her to rise up in the strawweight division if she can simply add tools to her game. Working with the Ribas family is a good start, and she’s got a real shot at becoming something.
Steele, on the other hand, is already close to a finished product. The 29-year-old Syndicate MMA product had a ton of hype heading into this season as a wily grappler who can also throw hands. Well, he showed all of that and plus-athleticism which means he’s almost guaranteed for a long UFC career. My only concern is that 29 is a late start for lightweight , where it can take years for fighters to make headway in the stacked weight class. Still, the floor is very high and there’s legitimate ceiling as well. Kody might be the “Steele” of the second round…
Round 1
Now we’re really into the top of the talent pool. The nine prospects below are my best bets to have long lasting, meaningful UFC careers, and given that, instead of the broad grouping, I opted to give each of them a one-sentence breakdown.
Navajo Stirling — City Kickboxing standout who can immediately compete at 205 pounds | shades of Rory MacDonald
Jacobe Smith — 3X All-American wrestler, great athlete who needs time | hints of Jon Jones
Elijah Smith — Explosive grappling but needs a killer instinct | gentler A.J. McKee
Josias Musasa — Fast, powerful, and aggressive but a bit one-note | bantamweight Derrick Lewis
Ateba Gautier — Big fella carved out of wood, extremely raw | next gen Melvin Manhoef
Mansour Abdul-Malik — All the physical gifts in the world | shades of Joaquin Buckley
Cody Haddon — Tight, polished boxer and BJJ black belt | a hint of Ilia Topuria
David Martinez — Fun, dynamic, and well-rounded, but lacks a superpower | a touch of Jonathan Martinez
Mario Pinto — Big man who THUDS without throwing hard | shades of Alex Pereira
Coincidentally, the order this group is listed in is roughly the order I’d draft them in, with Navajo Stiling being the one I’m highest one while Mario Pinto is the fighter most likely to be more of a Round 2 talent. But still, look at the way the big man can floor someone without trying.
Blue Chips
On every draft board, there are Round 1 prospects and then there are Blue Chip guys. These guys are as close to guaranteed successes as possible. Not just good contributors, these guys are STARS. People you can build a franchise around. And this year there are three of them.
Kevin Vallejos
I adore Kevin Vallejos. The 22-year-old Argentinian is an exceptional talent who narrowly missed out on earning a UFC contract last season of Contender Series, because he lost to Jean Silva. Silva was one of my favorite prospects that season and has looked sensational in the UFC this year, already knocking on the door of a ranking. And this kid gave him all he could hand despite being barely of drinking age.
Vallejos has slick, devastating striking with nasty combinations and great body work. Coincidentally, my favorite comparison for him is Jean Silva, and if he continues to improve as he ages, the sky is the limit for this kid.
Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi is an exceptional prospect. Just 23 years old, and already sporting an undefeated 13-0 record, Bashi hasn’t just been beating cans. He has wins over legitimate opposition and has been largely dominant in his career thus far.
The Michigan native is a fantastic athlete and a former IBJJF No-Gi world champion at the brown belt level. His striking game is still in development, but he’s got solid kicks already and he’s willing to mix things up. The best comparison I have for him is either Henry Cejudo or Aaron Pico, which should tell you a lot about how high this kid can climb.
Lone’er Kavanagh
Lone’er Kavanagh is one of the better prospects to ever come through Contender Series. Only 25 years old, Kavanagh is immediately ready to jump into the deep end of the flyweight division. He is a very good athlete with remarkable polish given his age. He’s poised under fire, has a slick, diversified striking game, and nasty power, especially for a flyweight.
As far as a comparison, the best one I have is a flyweight Rafael Fiziev, and that’s essentially talking about who Kavanagh is today. Give him a few more years of development and who knows where this young man might end up. Personally, I’m excited to find out.
from Las Vegas. (The gallery will update throughout Saturday's event.) #UFCVegas99″
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