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Why the EU needs to close the gaps in its leaky sanctions regime

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Good morning. Today, the leader of Europe’s liberals tells our parliament correspondent that the EU must take more steps to prevent third countries from evading sanctions on Russia. And my colleague in the Balkans reports on how Serbia’s president was convinced not to visit Russia this week.

Join leaders from Orange Group, Nokia, TIM and more on December 12 at our Tech Leadership Forum in Brussels to explore how effective leadership and strategies can underpin technologies and strengthen connectivity as a competitive economic asset in Europe. Reserve your free pass here.

Mind the gap

With Ukraine facing a tough third winter of war, Europe’s liberals are pressing the EU to lean on countries which still allow military goods to reach Russia, writes Andy Bounds.

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Context: Despite 14 rounds of sanctions the EU is struggling to stop Moscow procuring technology for its war machine, says Valérie Hayer, leader of the Renew Group in the European parliament, and it is time to end the “blind spot of sanctions evasion”.

“The Russian economy is not down, despite the 14 sanctions packages we have implemented. They have affected it, but not enough,” she said in an interview with the Financial Times in her office in Strasbourg.

“And we can see that among the blind spots is the evasion of sanctions, especially by countries in Central Asia. 

“Just look at the numbers. Between 2021 and 2023, exports between Kazakhstan and Russia increased from €40mn to €2.2bn . . . It’s all the prohibited products, chemicals, semiconductors, drones, computer hardware.”

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Hayer, who is close to France’s President Emmanuel Macron, wants to review the EU’s Central Asia strategy, now five years old. 

She envisages carrots and sticks to draw the region, once part of the Soviet Union, closer to the EU and reduce its reliance on Russia, including holding regular summits.

“We must demand that the European Union push so that . . . there are systematic elements on the requirement that sanctions against Russia be respected.”

She hopes to enlist the help of the G7 and European businesses. 

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“They all know that they should not sell to Russia. So everyone must assume their responsibilities and European companies must respect these sanctions,” she said.

MEPs cannot make sanctions policy but they can shape the debate. Renew was among the first to call for the EU to stop Russian oil and gas imports at the beginning of the war. That was initially laughed off by some as unfeasible, but is now considered an eventuality.

Chart du jour: Barnier’s budget

After 50 years of failing to balance its budget, France plans €60bn-worth of tax rises and spending cuts next year. But that belt-tightening poses a risk to growth in an economic climate as fragile as the country’s government.

With friends like these

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has declined an invitation from his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to attend this week’s summit of the Brics countries in Russia, electing instead to spend the time with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and other EU leaders, writes Marton Dunai.

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Context: Vučić, who has straddled the fence between Russia and the west since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, had been invited to become a member of the group named for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but declined. He has now reinforced that decision with his no-show at this week’s summit in the city of Kazan.

His European meetings — which include hosting fellow centre-right European People’s party leaders Donald Tusk of Poland and Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis tomorrow — show Vučić angling for acceptance from the western mainstream at the same time as currying favour with Putin. Von der Leyen will visit Serbia on Friday.

While Serbia has opposed EU measures such as sanctions against Russia, Vučić said he had told Putin he was not in a position to join the Brics leaders, saying the busy schedule was a reason but not an excuse for skipping.

“I told [Putin] that it would be difficult [to join the Brics summit] even without all of this, but that we would send a delegation of four of our ministers,” Vučić said, recounting a conversation which was one of the rare occasions the two leaders have spoken directly.

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The delegation to travel to Moscow will include such pro-Russian figures as deputy premier Aleksandar Vulin and Nenad Popović, a minister without portfolio and owner of ABS Electro, a large technology group that caters to Russian clients.

And Vučić may soon be paying an individual visit.

“I talked with President Putin about the 80th anniversary of the victory over fascism, which will take place [on May 9] next year,” he said. “It will be, I assume, the biggest show in history after the second world war on the Red Square in Moscow.”

What to watch today

  1. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen visits Albania, meets Prime Minister Edi Rama.

  2. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meets Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Now read these

  • Deglobalisation risk: A fragmented approach to global bank rulemaking could unleash destructive “economic nationalism,” warns UBS chief Sergio Ermotti.

  • Peace sign: Russia ending aerial attacks on Ukrainian energy targets and cargo ships could “signal” negotiations, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.

  • Unfrozen asset: Russian oligarch still owned Italian luxury holiday resort months after being sanctioned, according to documents seen by the FT.

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The tragedy of a 50-50 America

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The tragedy of a 50-50 America

The era of western stability relied on dominant parties, and the US has none

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Don’t hold out hope for any more game changers in protection

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Roger-Edwards Protection

Roger-Edwards ProtectionRemember when former Apple chief executive Steve Jobs stood up in 2007 and said, “We are going to launch three revolutionary products?”

To cheers from the audience, he revealed the first to be “a widescreen iPod with touch controls.” There were more gasps as he revealed the second as “a revolutionary mobile phone.” And when he announced the third as a “breakthrough internet communicator,” the people in the room almost lost it.

But when he unexpectedly said, “All three of these products are in the same device – the iPhone,” he brought the house down.

With successive generations of iPhones, it’s harder to care about the differences unless you are a true tech geek

Jobs’s speech is legendary, and the iPhone was genuine innovation which has shaped the smart-phone world we live in today. But have we seen something as genuinely innovative since then? The iPhone has evolved through 16 generations and, taking into account the various ‘S’ models over the years, there must be approaching 20 generations now.

I remember the iPhone 4, with its Retina display, was pretty epic. The Apple advertising said, “This changes everything. Again.” But with successive generations of iPhones, it’s harder to care about the differences unless you are a true tech geek. A slightly better camera, a beveled screen, a non-beveled screen, a notch.

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Looking back at the history of protection products, I see a similar pattern. In 1996, Scottish Provident introduced the innovative ‘Menu of benefits’ product.

The concept of added-value services was initially met with scepticism, but these are essential complements to the insurance elements

Predating Apple by over a decade, it put three products into one and let advisers and their clients choose any combination to suit their needs. At the time, people used words like “revolutionary” and “innovative” as true descriptors, rather than cliched marketing buzzwords.

In the early 2000s, another company introduced what we now call added-value services to the protection market. The concept of added-value services was initially met with scepticism, but these benefits are essential complements to the insurance elements.

When will the next game-changer emerge in the smartphone and protection markets? Because it seems we are now locked into a cycle of gradual improvements rather than stand out differences.

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Don’t get me wrong, we should welcome continuous improvements, especially anything that benefits the customer. But do gradual improvements change customer behaviour in the way we would like?

Are the improvements more motivated by keeping the provider towards the top of the rankings?

Consider the news reports that Vitality has improved its income protection offering. It says it will “…expand its range of deferral periods for a further 280 occupations” and will “…also be moving 349 manual roles and skilled trade occupations to an ‘own occupation’ definition of incapacity, replacing its ‘special definition’ that was previously used.”

These are good improvements but it feels to me like the Apple equivalent of adding more megapixels to the main camera, or giving a choice of wide-angle lens sizes.

Every year we see another round of additions and refinements to the list of critical illnesses. Better definitions and therefore improved cover. We can say the same about added-value benefits.

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Again, these are all great but do any of these improvements make it easier to sell protection to people on the street? Or are the improvements more motivated by keeping the provider towards the top of the rankings on all the various comparison engines and product analysis tools?

Will cost of being a first mover in a low margin environment always stifle true innovation?

In my last article, I said: “We know GenZ use TikTok as a search engine. We know they have short attention spans. We know they don’t like complexity. We know they don’t like filling in forms.

“And yet we expect them to get excited by our extremely complicated, generic protection products that have 30 page application forms and that we don’t talk about on TikTok.”

Will our current cycle of product improvements ever start to appeal to new audiences unless we come up with something genuinely revolutionary? Or will cost of being a first mover in a low margin environment always stifle true innovation?

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Will we ever see one of the chief executives of protection providers step, Steve Jobs like, onto a stage and make a presentation that’ll be quoted for years to come about a revolutionary protection product that will appeal to a new generation of customers?

Roger Edwards is managing director of Roger Edwards Marketing Ltd and marketing director of Protection Review

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Slow sales growth in the festive season dampens two-wheeler market sentiment- The Week

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Slow sales growth in the festive season dampens two-wheeler market sentiment- The Week

The festive season is typically among the best periods for automobile companies. However, an update from Bajaj Auto management this week dampened the mood in the market.

Overall, in the past few months, passenger vehicle sales hit the slow lane. But, with a good monsoon season and signs of rural recovery, the expectation was that two-wheelers would continue to see good traction. If we were to consider the period of Navratri, the picture is not as rosy as was earlier expected, and there is uncertainty on how things will pan out in Diwali too, although Bajaj Auto management is still upbeat about things picking up in the last few weeks of the festive season.

“The like-for-like comparison for the same days last year and this year, till Dussehra, is a bit muted and less than what was expected. The motorcycle industry is flattish, with almost 1–2 per cent growth only. We had thought it would be upwards of 5–6 per cent,” Rakesh Sharma, the executive director of Bajaj Auto, said in a post-earnings call with analysts.

ALSO READ: Auto stocks fall on Bajaj earnings miss despite Hyundai IPO buzz 

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Segment-wise, Sharma pointed out that the entry-level 100cc segment remained negative, and the 125cc and above segment was marginally positive. In the July-September quarter, the 125cc and above segments accounted for 55 per cent of the overall motorcycle industry, up from 42 per cent five years ago.

He said one shouldn’t draw full-season conclusions just yet, and things could pick up in the later part of the festive season. But clearly, the momentum is nowhere near what was earlier expected.

“I don’t think we will reach 8–9 per cent growth, but I hope we should be there at 3–5 per cent as an industry,” Sharma pointed.

Not surprisingly, Bajaj Auto shares tumbled more than 13 per cent since Wednesday. Its rivals, too, have skidded. Market leader Hero MotoCorp is down over 3 per cent. TVS Motor declined over 3 per cent on Thursday before recouping some of the losses on Friday.

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ALSO READ: Amid recent market volatility, one stock broker still sees over 11 pc upside for Nifty50 over 12 months 

Analysts also pointed to input cost pressures, which would need to be monitored in addition to slow sales. “After a 13–14 per cent year-on-year growth in FY24, the two-wheeler domestic industry is expected to grow by 7–8 per cent in FY25. Raw material inflation, particularly in commodities like copper, aluminium and precious metals, has been rising in Q2 (July–September) FY25 and requires close monitoring as it may hinder further improvements in EBITDA margins,” pointed Shridhar Kallani, auto analyst at Axis Securities.

Companies like Bajaj Auto saw a strong run on the stock market over the past year. With the near-term demand outlook muted, analysts say it would, therefore, be hard to justify the valuations it now trades at.

“Bajaj Auto has had a stellar run in the recent past (stock up more than 100 per cent in the past year) largely driven by its successful navigation of premiumisation drive in the domestic motorcycle segment. However, it now trades at over 25x PE (price to earnings) to its core forward earnings, which shall limit the stock price appreciation,” said Shashank Kanodia, research analyst at ICICI Direct.

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Full list of companies paying Real Living Wage as half a million workers get pay rise of up to £13.85 an hour

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Pay rise for nearly half a million workers from TODAY – see how much better off you will be

HUNDREDS of thousands of workers will get a pay rise as the Real Living Wage increases today.

Employees of companies including Nationwide, Oxfam and Ikea will all see their hourly rate increase to almost £14 an hour.

Wages will rise today for almost half a million workers

1

Wages will rise today for almost half a million workersCredit: PA

As of today, the real living wage will rise by 60p to £12.60 an hour across the UK or by 70p to £13.85 if you live in London.

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The real living wage is different from the government-set minimum wage – it is the only UK pay rate based on the cost of living.

Employers have the right to choose whether they want to offer the real living wage to workers – they are not legally required to do so.

The government’s national living wage is based on recommendations from trade unions and small businesses, and is set this year at a minimum hourly rate of £11.44 for workers over the age of 21.

Across the UK there are over 15,995 companies which pay the real living wage following a campaign on workers’ rights in 2001 by Citizens UK.

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Big and small companies across the charity, public and private sectors have pledged to pay the Real Living Wage to their employers.

Here are some well-known examples:

  • Nationwide
  • Burberry
  • Chelsea Football Club
  • Everton Football Club
  • Liverpool Football Club
  • Ikea
  • Lush
  • The Royal Albert Hall
  • ITV
  • Saga
  • University of Cambridge
  • Transport for Greater Manchester
  • Thames Water
  • Scottish Power
  • Ring Go
  • Jamie Oliver
  • National Express
  • Insignia Technologies
  • Santander
  • Unifrog
  • Which?

More than 100 independent businesses, such as coffee shops, pubs and restaurants are also signed up to the fair pay scheme.

Understanding GDP and Its Impact on the Economy

For example:

  • Twenty Coffee Company, Bristol
  • The Three Chimneys, Isle of Skye
  • The Swan, York
  • St Canna’s Ale House, Cardiff
  • Brixton Blend Coffee Shop, London

If you want to browse the full list of companies and find out more, you can visit the Real Living Wage Foundation website.

Here you can use searching filters to sift through the companies by region, industry and sector.

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There is also an interactive map which you can use to find out which ones on the list are near you.

Just type in your postcode or the type of business you are looking for and it will show you local employers which are on the scheme.

Katherine Chapman, director of the Real Living Wage Foundation said low-paid workers have been “hardest hit by the cost of living crisis.”

She said: “The real living wage remains the only UK wage rate calculated based on actual living costs, and the new rates announced today will make a massive difference to almost half a million workers who will see their pay increase.”

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What is the difference between the National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage?

The National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage are two different things.

They are both set by the government – so are separate from the Real Living Wage.

The National Living Wage is the legal minimum employers have to pay workers aged 21 and over and is £11.44 an hour.

Before 1 April 2024 the National Living Wage was for those aged 23 and over and was £10.42 an hour.

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The National Minimum Wage is the minimum amount that workers under 21 are entitled to.

Exactly how much you get depends on how old you are.

So if you are 21 or over you are entitled to at least £11.44 an hour.

While if you’re 18 to 20, the minimum wage is £8.60 an hour.

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And if you’re under 18 or an apprentice this is £6.40 an hour.

When was the minimum wage introduced?

THE first National Minimum Wage was put in place in 1998 by the Labour government.

It originally applied to workers aged 22 and over, and there was a separate rate for those aged 18-21.

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A separate rate for 16-17-year-olds was introduced in 2004, and in 2010, 21-year-olds became eligible for the adult rate of the National Minimum Wage.

The rate is set by the Government each year based on recommendations by the Low Pay Commission (LPC).

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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Volvo Cars says it will not support Northvolt as it slashes sales guidance

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Volvo Cars said it would not invest in its struggling partner Northvolt as the Swedish group halved its annual sales growth forecast amid a slowdown in vehicle demand and geopolitical turbulence.

Chief executive Jim Rowan told the Financial Times that the company would not provide direct financial support to the cash-strapped Swedish battery group, which has a joint venture to build a plant in Gothenburg with Volvo. He added that the company needed to “tighten its belt”, warning that the auto industry would “remain under pressure”.

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Rowan also said the company had diversified its battery supply chain so that it would not be exposed to the troubles at Northvolt, which is trying to raise fresh funds.

“I would love to see Northvolt be successful,” he said. “But even if Northvolt doesn’t make it as a company, we won’t be affected by that because we are multi-sourced in terms of battery supply.”

The Swedish group, which is majority-owned by Chinese carmaker Geely, said it now expected retail sales to rise 7 to 8 per cent this year, down from guidance in July of 12 to 15 per cent — itself a downward revision. As a result, the company now expects its free cash flow to remain negative for the year. 

Shares in Volvo fell more than 4 per cent in early trading on Wednesday in Stockholm.

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The company reported an operating profit of SKr5.8bn ($548mn) in the three months to the end of September, up 29 per cent from a year earlier, on revenue that was roughly flat at SKr92.8bn. Both came in well above market expectations. 

Despite a robust third quarter, Rowan said on Wednesday that overall demand for cars, including the premium segment, was softening in the company’s key markets including China, the US and Europe because of higher interest rates. 

“The external headwinds are clearly intensifying and these are the inescapable business realities of today,” he said, adding that the company would focus on price discipline over volume to navigate “turbulence in the market”.

Volvo last month abandoned its ambitious target to sell only electric cars by 2030, blaming a global slowdown in growth for battery-powered vehicles after governments in Europe pulled back subsidies.

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Under its revised target, Volvo will now aim for 90 to 100 per cent of its global sales to be electric cars and plug-in hybrids by 2030. It will also continue to invest in hybrid technology amid growing consumer demand for cars that combine battery capabilities and traditional engines.

For the latest quarter, fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 48 per cent of the company’s 172,849 cars sold. 

Carmakers in Europe, including Volkswagen and Stellantis, have issued a series of profit warnings in recent weeks as they wrestle with slowing electric vehicle growth as well as increasing competition from Chinese rivals.

Bernstein analyst Harry Martin said the new guidance — which also includes zero volume growth in the fourth quarter — confirmed that “the next 12 months will be incredibly challenging as the effects of the EU-China tariff and rising competition from lower-priced EV models come in next year”. 

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To address the EU’s higher tariffs on imports of EVs made in China, Volvo has already said it would produce its EX30 EV model in its Ghent plant in Belgium as well as in China from next year. Asked about the impact of the tariffs, Rowan said it posed “a short-term problem” for the company.

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Home REIT to pay off Scottish Widows loan as it raises £27m in auctions

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Home REIT to pay off Scottish Widows loan as it raises £27m in auctions

The group expects to repay its remaining loan amount of £72m before the end of the year.

The post Home REIT to pay off Scottish Widows loan as it raises £27m in auctions appeared first on Property Week.

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