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Bitcoin Bottom Signal That Preceded a 1,900% Rally Flashes Again

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Bitcoin’s on-chain signals have shifted in a way that several researchers say signals capitulation could be underway, potentially setting the stage for a cycle bottom. The most studied metric — the short-term holder stress — has sunk to levels not seen since the late-2018 bear market trough, according to data from Checkonchain. The indicator measures the gap between the spot price and the average cost basis of wallets holding coins for under 155 days, applying Bollinger Bands to identify oversold conditions. Traders and researchers see the print as aligning with prior macro bottoms, though consensus on timing remains mixed. The conversation also points to macro liquidity catalysts: Wells Fargo cites tax refunds in 2026 as a possible tailwind that could pour liquidity into Bitcoin and equities by March, potentially absorbing remaining selling pressure. The path forward will hinge on whether market participants sustain buying interest as on-chain stress remains subdued across multiple cohorts, including short-term holder wallets.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Bollinger Band indicator has moved into its deepest oversold territory since the 2018 bear market bottom, signaling potential capitulation pressure.
  • Historical precedents show similar oversold prints preceding substantial rallies, including a roughly 150% gain within a year and a 1,900% surge over three years after the 2018 bottom.
  • The November 2022 trough, which preceded a multi-year rally to a record high near $126,270, is cited as another data point supporting cycle-bottom expectations.
  • Realized losses among short-term holder whales have remained muted since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak near $126,000, suggesting larger buyers have not yet fully capitulated.
  • Macro liquidity signals, such as Wells Fargo’s note on sizable 2026 tax refunds potentially fueling a “YOLO” trade into Bitcoin and equities, could provide near-term upside pressure if flows materialize by end-March.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. While on-chain stress hints at a potential bottom, there is noConfirmed breakout scenario described and macro factors remain a key variable.

Market context: The combination of on-chain stress relief and a potential liquidity impulse from tax flows frames a window where risk appetite could improve in the near term. observers are watching whether the inflows materialize into persistent demand, or whether price action remains range-bound as macro conditions evolve.

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Why it matters

On-chain metrics have long been a yardstick for evaluating Bitcoin’s market cycle phases, distinct from price action alone. The Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Band approach temporarily puts a spotlight on coins held by newer entrants, treating them as a proxy for imminent selling or hold-to-maturity behavior. When the oscillator breaks below its lower Bollinger Band, it suggests that the average cost basis of short-term holders is being undercut by the current price — a condition historically associated with capitulation in the broader market. The 2018 experience, where oversold prints preceded a multi-year uptrend, is frequently cited by analysts as a potential template for this cycle.

The depth of the current oversold reading is meaningful because it aligns with a broader narrative: that selling pressure could be waning as investors capitulate, potentially creating room for a sustainable bottom. Yet, the analysis cautions that such signals are not guarantees. Bitcoin’s price has previously rebounded from similar conditions only to face renewed headwinds from macro shocks or shifts in risk appetite. The discussion around realized losses among short-term holder whales adds nuance: even as prices have fallen, large holders have not uniformly capitulated, suggesting that demand may still exist at higher levels than recent prices imply. This balance matters because it influences the probability of a durable bottom versus a quick bounce that fails to gain traction.

The macro dimension adds another layer. Wells Fargo’s strategists highlighted the potential for tax refunds to unlock liquidity that could support risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, by injecting capital into the market through March. If the $150 billion figure referenced by analysts proves accurate, such inflows could mitigate selling pressure and help price discover a more meaningful bottom. The convergence of on-chain signals with real-world liquidity flows is the kind of alignment that market watchers view as a constructive sign for risk assets, even as they remain cautious about the pace and durability of any rebound.

Analysts also point to historical cycles where bottoms were followed by notable recoveries. The late-2018 experience showed that oversold conditions, when paired with improving macro sentiment and increasing demand from new buyers, could catalyze a multi-year upside. The November 2022 bottom, followed by a surge to near-record highs, reinforces the idea that bottoms often coincide with periods of intense buyer interest returning to the market, even if the path there is bumpy. In this environment, the emphasis is on how fast new money and existing holders re-enter the market and how quickly sellers exhaust their supply, factors that are inherently linked to broader liquidity and sentiment dynamics.

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Within the broader ecosystem, some traders and researchers also reference a smell-test of market psychology: the extent to which realized losses have cooled among the most active short-term participants suggests that the willingness to re-enter at higher levels remains present, albeit tentative. This is why the current data is interpreted as a potential setup for a cycle low rather than a guaranteed bottom. The shared takeaway is that while the signals are promising, the next few weeks — especially through the end of March — will be telling as tax-driven liquidity and on-chain dynamics continue to unfold.

The discussion around these dynamics is not isolated to Bitcoin. While the primary focus is on the flagship asset, the pattern of on-chain stress, macro liquidity, and historical analogs feeds into broader debates about the resilience of the crypto market amid evolving market structure and regulation. As always, readers are advised to view these signals as parts of a larger puzzle, not a definitive forecast. The intersection of on-chain data, fund flows, and macro risk sentiment remains the most informative lens for assessing where Bitcoin might head next.

What to watch next

  • Monitor whether Bitcoin price stabilizes or rallies in the coming weeks, particularly if the STH Bollinger Band reading remains in oversold territory or begins to recover.
  • Track tax-related liquidity flows into markets through March, as discussions around the $150 billion potential influx gain visibility.
  • Observe changes in realized losses among short-term holder wallets and any signs of capitulation shifting toward distribution or accumulation phases.
  • Watch updates from on-chain analytics providers like Checkonchain for new readings on short-term cost bases and holder behavior.

Sources & verification

  • Checkonchain on the Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band metric and its historical precedents.
  • Past Bitcoin bottoms in 2018 and 2022 that preceded major rallies, including a move to about $126,270 in 2022.
  • Bitcoin price context around the October 2025 peak near $126,000 and the persistence of muted realized losses among short-term holder whales.
  • Wells Fargo analysis cited by CNBC, noting potential liquidity inflows from tax refunds in 2026 and their possible impact on Bitcoin and equities.
  • Matrixport’s bottom outlook as part of the broader analyst consensus around on-chain signals and macro risk sentiment.

Bitcoin on-chain stress signals edge toward potential cycle bottom

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) on-chain metrics have shifted in a way that several researchers say signals capitulation could be underway, potentially setting the stage for a cycle bottom. Foremost among them is the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Bollinger Band indicator, which dipped into levels not seen since the 2018 bear trough, according to data from Checkonchain. By applying Bollinger Bands to the gap between the spot price and the average cost basis for wallets that have held BTC for less than 155 days, the oscillator flags oversold conditions when the price trades beyond the lower band.

The pattern mirrors a historical playbook: when the STH oscillator crosses the lower Bollinger band, Bitcoin has tended to trade well below the average purchase price of recent buyers, signaling capitulation pressure that often precedes a multi-month or multi-year rebound. In late 2018, such an oversold print foreshadowed a substantial rally, with BTC staging roughly a 150% ascent within a year and a cumulative rise of about 1,900% over three years. Similarly, the November 2022 trough marked a turning point before a dramatic upleg toward a record high near $126,270. These episodes illustrate how on-chain stress and market cycles can align in the aftermath of stress events.

Beyond price gaps, the market’s on-chain composition offers a nuanced view: realized losses among short-term holder whales have remained muted since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak around $126,000, implying that larger buyers may still be sitting on loss-adjusted positions rather than capitulating. This balance between buying pressure and seller fatigue is often critical for confirming a bottom rather than a simple bounce. The data point is echoed in other analyses showing that demand from new entrants and opportunistic buyers has not yet faltered, though the overall macro environment remains uncertain.

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Macro traders are also watching liquidity catalysts that could influence near-term direction. Wells Fargo’s Ohsung Kwon, cited by CNBC, highlighted that unusually large tax refunds anticipated in 2026 could revitalize what some call a “YOLO” trade — a rapid, all-in bet across equities and digital assets. Estimates floated in the note suggest as much as $150 billion could flow into stocks and Bitcoin by the end of March, a wave that may help absorb remaining selling pressure and support a stabilization narrative through the first quarter. More details

Such liquidity inflows would not, by themselves, guarantee a sustained rally, but they could dampen downside volatility and create a backdrop for a gradual rebound if on-chain metrics continue to show exhaustion of sellers. The discussion around short-term holder metrics is complemented by institutional commentary and analyst forecasts that point to a potential cycle low rather than a simple bounce. Some market observers, including researchers tracking long-run cycles, emphasize that the bottom’s timing is intrinsically linked to how quickly buyers re-emerge and how macro risk sentiment evolves in the coming weeks.

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F1’s Multi-Million Crypto Sponsorships at Risk as Middle East Conflict Forces Race Cancellations: FIA

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F1's Multi-Million Crypto Sponsorships at Risk as Middle East Conflict Forces Race Cancellations: FIA

Two Formula One races in the Middle East face cancellation due to ongoing regional conflict, threatening major cryptocurrency sponsorship deals with F1 teams.

Two Formula One races in the Middle East are set to be canceled because of ongoing war in the region, according to multiple reports. The FIA is maintaining contact with local authorities as it evaluates the situation regarding upcoming F1 races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

The cancellations threaten crypto’s multi-million dollar F1 sponsorship investments. Other major business events across the UAE, including Middle East Energy Dubai and the Dubai International Boat Show, have also been postponed or delayed. This comes as crypto brands already face headwinds on F1 vehicles, with the sector reeling from high-profile collapses like FTX, which sponsored Mercedes AMG F1.

Sources: CoinDesk | Yahoo Sports | Road and Track

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This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.

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Hoskinson might be wrong about the future of decentralized compute

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Hoskinson might be wrong about the future of decentralized compute

The blockchain trilemma reared its head once more at Consensus in Hong Kong in February, to some extent, putting Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, on the back foot – having to reassure attendees that hyperscalers like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure are not a risk to decentralisation.

The point was made that major blockchain projects need hyperscalers, and that one shouldn’t be concerned about a single point of failure because:

  • Advanced cryptography neutralizes the risk
  • Multi-party computation distributes key material
  • Confidential computing shields data in use

The argument rested on the idea that ‘if the cloud cannot see the data, the cloud cannot control the system,’ and it was left there due to time constraints.

But there’s an alternative to Hoskinson’s argument in favor of hyperscalers that deserves more attention.

MPC and Confidential Computing Reduce Exposure

This was somewhat of a strategic bastion in Charles’ argument – that technologies like multi-party computation (MPC) and confidential computing ensure that hardware providers wouldn’t have access to the underlying data.

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They are powerful tools. But they do not dissolve the underlying risk.

MPC distributes key material across multiple parties so that no single participant can reconstruct a secret. That meaningfully reduces the risk of a single compromised node. However, the security surface expands in other directions. The coordination layer, the communication channels and the governance of participating nodes all become critical.

Instead of trusting a single key holder, the system now depends on a distributed set of actors behaving correctly and on the protocol being implemented correctly. The single point of failure does not disappear. In fact, it simply becomes a distributed trust surface.

Confidential computing, particularly trusted execution environments, introduces a different trade-off. Data is encrypted during execution, which limits exposure to the hosting provider.

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But Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) rely on hardware assumptions. They depend on microarchitectural isolation, firmware integrity and correct implementation. Academic literature, for example, here and here, has repeatedly demonstrated that side-channel and architectural vulnerabilities continue to emerge across enclave technologies. The security boundary is narrower than traditional cloud, but it is not absolute.

More importantly, both MPC and TEEs often operate on top of hyperscaler infrastructure. The physical hardware, virtualization layer and supply chain remain concentrated. If an infrastructure provider controls access to machines, bandwidth or geographic regions, it retains operational leverage. Cryptography may prevent data inspection, but it does not prevent throughput restrictions, shutdowns, or policy interventions.

Advanced cryptographic tools make specific attacks harder, but they still do not remove infrastructure-level failure risk. They simply replace a visible concentration with a more complex one.

The ‘No L1 Can Handle Global Compute’ Argument

Hoskinson made the point that hyperscalers are necessary because no single Layer 1 can handle the computational demands of global systems, referencing the trillions of dollars that have helped to build such data centres.

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Of course, Layer 1 networks were not built to run AI training loops, high-frequency trading engines, or enterprise analytics pipelines. They exist to maintain consensus, verify state transitions and provide durable data availability.

He is correct on what Layer 1 is for. But global systems mainly need results that anyone can verify, even if the computation happens elsewhere.

In modern crypto infrastructure, heavy computation increasingly happens off-chain. What matters is that results can be proven and verified onchain. This is the foundation of rollups, zero-knowledge systems and verifiable compute networks.

Focusing on whether an L1 can run global compute misses the core issue of who controls the execution and storage infrastructure behind verification.

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If computation happens offchain but relies on centralized infrastructure, the system inherits centralized failure modes. Settlement remains decentralized in theory, but the pathway to producing valid state transitions is concentrated in practice.

The issue should be about dependency at the infrastructure layer, not computational capacity inside Layer 1.

Cryptographic Neutrality Is Not the Same as Participation Neutrality

Cryptographic neutrality is a powerful idea and something Hoskinson used in his argument. It means rules cannot be arbitrarily changed, hidden backdoors cannot be introduced and the protocol remains fair.

But cryptography runs on hardware.

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That physical layer determines who can participate, who can afford to do so and who ends up excluded, because throughput and latency are ultimately constrained by real machines and the infrastructure they run on. If hardware production, distribution, and hosting remain centralized, participation becomes economically gated even when the protocol itself is mathematically neutral.

In high-compute systems, hardware is the game-changer. It determines cost structure, who can scale, and resilience under censorship pressure. A neutral protocol running on concentrated infrastructure is neutral in theory but constrained in practice.

The priority should shift toward cryptography combined with diversified hardware ownership.

Without infrastructure diversity, neutrality becomes fragile under stress. If a small set of providers can rate-limit workloads, restrict regions, or impose compliance gates, the system inherits their leverage. Rule fairness alone does not guarantee participation fairness.

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Specialization Beats Generalization in Compute Markets

Competing with AWS is often framed as a question of scale, but this too is misleading.

Hyperscalers optimize for flexibility. Their infrastructure is designed to serve thousands of workloads simultaneously. Virtualization layers, orchestration systems, enterprise compliance tooling and elasticity guarantees – these features are strengths for general-purpose compute, but they are also cost layers.

Zero-knowledge proving and verifiable compute are deterministic, compute-dense, memory-bandwidth constrained, and pipeline-sensitive. In other words, they reward specialization.

A purpose-built proving network competes on proof per dollar, proof per watt and proof per latency. When hardware, prover software, circuit design, and aggregation logic are vertically integrated, efficiency compounds. Removing unnecessary abstraction layers reduces overhead. Sustained throughput on persistent clusters outperforms elastic scaling for narrow, constant workloads.

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In compute markets, specialization consistently outperforms generalization for steady, high-volume tasks. AWS optimizes for optionality. A dedicated proving network optimizes for one class of work.

The economic structure differs as well. Hyperscalers’ price for enterprise margins and broad demand variability. A network aligned around protocol incentives can amortize hardware differently and tune performance around sustained utilization rather than short-term rental models.

The competition becomes about structural efficiency for a defined workload.

Use Hyperscalers, But Do Not Be Dependent on Them

Hyperscalers are not the enemy. They are efficient, reliable, and globally distributed infrastructure providers. The problem is dependence.

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A resilient architecture uses major vendors for burst capacity, geographic redundancy, and edge distribution, but it does not anchor core functions to a single provider or a small cluster of providers.

Settlement, final verification and the availability of critical artifacts should remain intact even if a cloud region fails, a vendor exits a market, or policy constraints tighten.

This is where decentralized storage and compute infrastructure become a viable alternative. Proof artifacts, historical records and verification inputs should not be withdrawable at a provider’s discretion. Instead, they should live on infrastructure that is economically aligned with the protocol and structurally difficult to turn off.

Hypescalers should be used as an optional accelerator rather than something foundational to the product. Cloud can still be useful for reach and bursts, but the system’s ability to produce proofs and persist what verification depends on is not gated by a single vendor.

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In such a system, if a hyperscaler disappears tomorrow, the network would only slow down, because the parts that matter most are owned and operated by a broader network rather than rented from a big-brand chokepoint.

This is how to fortify crypto’s ethos of decentralization.

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IOTA Tests Securitization Infrastructure That Could Reshape Real-World Asset Finance on Blockchain

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • IOTA’s code reveals a three-tier securitization model mirroring traditional structured finance architecture.
  • The infrastructure could support invoice factoring, SME lending, and energy project financing on-chain.
  • Analysts link the testing to SALUS and ADAPT platforms operating within the AfCFTA trade framework.
  • No IOTA Foundation statement confirms the purpose, but the architecture suits digital capital markets.

IOTA is currently testing a full securitization infrastructure on its blockchain, based on early code analysis. The architecture mirrors traditional structured finance models, dividing pooled assets into senior, mezzanine, and junior tranches.

This points toward a broader financial layer being constructed on the IOTA network. Community observers are connecting this work to platforms like SALUS, ADAPT, and TWIN. All three platforms operate within the African Continental Free Trade Area framework.

IOTA Code Points to a Foundational Structured Finance Layer

Securitization involves pooling real assets, like loans or invoices, and converting them into tradeable instruments. On IOTA, the code being tested applies this same principle across the network.

This structure points to a foundational layer for managing and structuring real-world assets on-chain.

The architecture reflects the three-tier model widely used in traditional structured finance. Senior tranches carry the lowest risk and hold first priority on repayment.

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Mezzanine tranches occupy the middle ground, balancing risk and return. Junior tranches carry the highest risk but offer the greatest potential return.

Community analyst Salima flagged this on X, noting the architecture fits platforms like SALUS and ADAPT. She pointed out that the code does not appear to be a standalone product.

Rather, it resembles the base layer for managing digital real-world assets at scale. Any direct link to AfCFTA trade platforms remains unconfirmed at this stage.

What stands out is that this process could run entirely on IOTA without external financial rails. No third-party intermediaries or legacy systems would be required.

Portfolios of real-world assets could become programmable digital financial structures on-chain. Investors could then participate based on their individual risk profiles.

Trade Finance to Capital Markets: IOTA’s Potential Use Cases

The infrastructure on IOTA could support several practical financial applications. Invoice factoring and trade finance are among the most immediate potential use cases.

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SME lending and productive financing also fit within this securitization model. Equipment leasing and energy projects are additional sectors where this architecture could apply.

Digital capital markets for real-world assets represent a wider area of interest. Tokenized portfolios could open participation to a broader global investor base.

This removes the geographic barriers that traditionally limit access to structured finance. IOTA’s feeless and scalable design makes it technically suited for this type of infrastructure.

The timing of these tests aligns with growing global interest in real-world asset tokenization. Traditional finance is increasingly exploring blockchain alternatives to legacy securitization models.

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If IOTA’s architecture develops further, it could serve as a foundational layer for this shift. No official statement has come from the IOTA Foundation as of this writing.

As the code evolves, observers are watching for further technical developments and announcements. The current architecture does not confirm any specific platform or official partnership.

What is clear is that IOTA is building technical groundwork for real-world asset finance. The full scope and intent of this infrastructure is yet to be publicly confirmed.

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Ethereum Foundation sells 5,000 ether to BitMine in $10.2 million OTC deal

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Ethereum Foundation sells 5,000 ether to BitMine in $10.2 million OTC deal

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) said it finalized the sale of 5,000 ether (ETH) in an over-the-counter transaction with one of the top crypto treasury firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies.

The sale cleared at an average price of $2,042.96 per ETH, the Foundation said, placing the transaction’s value at roughly $10.2 million.

The non-profit organization, established in 2014 to support the Ethereum blockchain and its ecosystem, said the funds will support its core operations, including protocol research and development, ecosystem growth, and community grants.

The transactions, it said, are in line with the policy that governs its reserve management. The framework aims to strike a balance between holding ETH and maintaining sufficient fiat or fiat-like assets to cover operating costs. EF currently aims to keep annual operating expenses near 15% of treasury value with a 2.5-year operating buffer, a strategy that determines how often it sells ETH.

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The sale comes less than a month after the Ethereum Foundation began staking up to 70,000 ETH to support its operations and deepen its role in the Ethereum ecosystem.

Bitmine, helmed by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, was the counterparty in the deal and is the largest publicly traded ether treasury firm, currently holding around 4.53 million ETH, worth more than $9.4 billion.

The firm’s portfolio is almost entirely ether. The company also holds around 195 BTC and more than $1 billion in cash, along with equity stakes. These stakes also include a share of Beast Industries, the company behind YouTube creator MrBeast, after a $200 million investment in it, along with a 7% stake in the worldcoin treasury firm Eightco.

Read more: ‘Mini crypto winter’ nearly over, says Tom Lee as Bitmine ramps up pace of ether acquisition

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Former UK PM Johnson Calls BTC a Scam, Draws Criticism From Bitcoiners

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United Kingdom, Bitcoin Adoption

Boris Johnson, the former prime minister of the United Kingdom, called Bitcoin (BTC) a “Ponzi Scheme” that has less value than Pokémon cards, collectibles he said had a wide appeal and a multi-decade history.

Johnson wrote an opinion article published in the Daily Mail on Friday that began with a story about a friend who had given 500 British pounds, or about $661, to a man who promised to “double his money” by investing it in BTC.

The friend continued to pay additional “fees” to the scheme’s promoter over the next three and a half years, but was never able to retrieve his funds, despite sinking 20,000 British pounds, or about $26,474, which led to financial hardship, Johnson said. 

United Kingdom, Bitcoin Adoption
Source: Boris Johnson

“He was struggling to pay his bills. He wasn’t the only one, said my friend. Other people in the neighborhood were going through the same nightmare,” Johnson added. Johnson then argued that collectible Pokémon cards are a more tradable asset than BTC:

“These curious little Japanese cartoon beasties seem to exercise the same fascination over the five-year-old mind as they did 30 years ago. The kids drool over them. They boast and squabble about them.

Even if you remain pretty impervious to the charm of Pikachu, you can just about see why a decades-old Pikachu card is still a tradeable asset,” he added.

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