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Despite the massive FII selloff in October, long-term funds still looking to enter India, says Morningstar’s Belapurkar- The Week

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Geopolitcal crisis, strong Chinese stocks prompt FPIs to take out Rs 58,711 crore from equities in October- The Week

October marked the auspicious period of Navratri, but the festive cheer seems to have eluded the equity market. Foreign portfolio investors sold more than Rs 72,000 crore in the equity market so far this month, the highest ever for a month in over four years. In fact, the sell-off this time around was even more than the Rs 62,000 crore worth of shares they sold back in March 2020, when the world was grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, and India had imposed a complete lockdown.

On the back of the relentless selling by foreign institutional investors, the benchmark BSE Sensex slipped around 5 per cent, and the BSE Smallcap index fell over 6 per cent this month till October 22. The FII selling has been partly offset by continued inflows into domestic mutual funds. SIP (systematic investment plans) inflows per month have now topped Rs 24,000 crore, which, in a way, has cushioned the fall in the market.

ALSO READ: F&O trading can’t be a national pastime, says SEBI member Ashwani Bhatia

What is driving the FII selloff?

A major reason that triggered the FII selloff was the recent stimulus measures announced by China. The measures, which included interest rate cuts by the Chinese central bank, saw a lot of foreign fund flows moving there as the valuations looked attractive. On the other hand, valuations in many pockets of India’s stock market have been expensive. That, coupled with comparatively slower earnings growth in India and signs of looming economic slowdown in the coming months, dampened the mood Motilal Oswal Financial Services recently forecasted earnings of Nifty 50 companies to grow 5 per cent year-on-year in the July-September quarter, the lowest in 17 quarters.

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Escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and the looming Presidential elections in the United States, too, added to the uncertainties. However, despite the near-term worries, foreign investors still remain constructive on India in the long-term, opined Kaustubh Belapurkar, director and manager, Research at Morningstar Investment Research India.

“China’s been beaten down for long, so there’s always a valuation play at the heart of managers. So there would be some reallocation that potentially can happen, has happened, back into the Chinese market, but I think India still remains very positive for managers from the long run,” Belapurkar said.

While FPIs might have reduced some allocation to India, long-term funds are still looking to enter India, he noted.

The US Federal Reserve recently announced a sharp 50 basis points interest rate cut, and another 50 bps rate cut is expected by the end of December, with more cuts to follow in 2025 as the American central bank’s focus shifts to protecting growth while inflation has cooled.

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ALSO READ: Bear attack Investors poorer by Rs 9.19 lakh cr in single day as markets crash

Typically, when interest rates come down in markets like the US, demand for risk assets goes up. Generally, in such scenarios in the past, flows to emerging markets—including India—have picked up, although that may not happen overnight, he said.

“Obviously there’s that whole risk of the US election. Once things around that stabilize, you might see that risk trade playing off again in markets like India. Especially when you see interest rates coming down, risk assets will become more and more attractive from a US investor’s perspective. And you might see, potentially, a reasonable amount of capital coming back from FIIs back into the Indian markets,” stated Belapurkar.

While valuations have been a concern for some time if the local flows continue to remain strong, valuations may continue to remain elevated, he added.

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“You pay a little bit of an excess for growth at times,” pointed Belapurkar.

‘Investors chasing funds’

As domestic fund flows have surged over the last few years, new fund launches have also picked up in a big way, with sectoral and thematic funds also gaining traction. Investors chasing such funds worry Belapurkar, and he feels investors, especially those who have only recently started their investment journey, should not get swayed by recent past returns.

“If you invest into a sector, thinking that it’s delivered 50 per cent over the last one year, it’s actually the worst time to get involved. Sector rotation happens. We saw that with technology just post-COVID where it was the best-performing sector, and then it lagged significantly. Most of the money came into tech funds after the run-up happened. And history is kind of repeating itself. So I think that’s something investors need to keep in mind. Don’t chase recent performance especially when it comes to sector themes. Because you can get it horribly wrong,” he stressed.

ALSO READ: Growing youth population, high employment to drive GCC retail market: Lulu Retail

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How does he see domestic markets panning out over the next 6-12 months?

Belapurkar feels there could still be minor corrections, especially if FIIs continue to sell massively. He doesn’t expect any sharp drop unless, of course, geopolitical tensions escalate and a full-fledged war breaks out, and then there will be further flight of global capital. But, such events are unpredictable.

Investors, though, need to lower their returns expectations and can’t bet on extraordinary returns continuing.

“You have had this crazy bull run, when you put money in any fund, you made 20-30-40 per cent, whatever. Don’t expect that this is going to continue to perpetuate. Returns will normalise. If you look at longer-term returns for any market cycle, 12-15 per cent in equities is what it will come down to,” said Belapurkar.

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How squeezing the rich through tax may backfire

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If Britain is to have a more European welfare state, it needs a more European tax system

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Four big predictions ahead of the Budget

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Getting clients' houses in order ahead of the Budget

The government appears to have four key objectives ahead of its first Budget next week:

  • Cover the £22bn black hole it has uncovered
  • Make the UK pension system less or non-dependent upon state support
  • Encourage the UK population to become more financially self-reliant
  • Encourage investment in UK business

With these in mind, here are my big four predictions for the day.

1. Pension scheme to provide a side-car cash account

According to the Financial Conduct Authority, one in three UK adults have either no savings or less than £1,000 accessible. This means they are ill-equipped to respond to cashflow shocks, such as an unexpected bill.

Workplace pension provider Nest has, for some time, been running its side-car initiative, combining a savings account with its pension scheme. This creates three benefits the broader population could also benefit from:

  • Budgeting and cashflow management
  • Building emergency savings
  • Working towards a near-term savings goal

This appears to have been a great success, so it would be sensible to extend the benefit to the 12 million-plus pension holders in the accumulation phase.

2. Make better use of tax-free cash allowance 

Most of us can take tax-free cash equivalent to 25% of the value of our accumulated pension savings, up to a maximum of £268,275.

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Ultimately, this allowance encourages one in four pounds saved tax efficiently to fund retirement to instead be spent on whatever the owner likes. This gives the UK economy and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) a boost, as the likes of cars, kitchens and holidays are often purchased.

That said, taking the cash results in a smaller income for the owner for the rest of their life, and potentially their dependents too. This makes both more likely to become reliant upon the state to financially support them later in life.

Could the allowance be restructured to encourage saving and for the average retiree to see more value in boosting their income in retirement than taking the tax-free cash?

This could be done by retaining the 25% allowance but setting a threshold at which it becomes available. A minimum level of secure income required before tax-free cash becomes an option.

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We can use the Pension and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) annual Retirement Living Standards report to help us set the threshold. This states a minimum level of income required in retirement – £14,400 for a single person in 2024/25, excluding rent/mortgage costs.

With the state pension currently providing £11,502, this leaves those without an alternative income source some £2,900 below the PLSA minimum level. To put it another way, the state provides only 80% of the income needed.

To buy a secure inflation-linked lifetime income to make up the shortfall would currently require around £70,000 for a single person, non-smoker, in good health.

For someone on a UK average salary of £35,000, this would take about 15 years to accumulate. Bearing in mind the average working lifetime is 45-50 years and we have auto-enrolment with a compulsory 8% contribution rate, this seems realistic.

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Looking at this from a consumer’s perspective, hardly anyone knows how much they need to save. The £70,000, therefore, becomes a minimum goal, while also making it clear they will be rewarded for exceeding it through the 25% tax-free cash allowance.

This incentive works just as well for the self-employed as it does the employed. This is important, because, currently, some four million self-employed individuals are not saving for their retirement.

Further consideration needs to be given to how the system would work for:

  • Couples, who, according to PLSA, require a minimum income of £22,400.
  • Those with protected characteristics as defined by the Equality Act 2010 – i.e. women and the disabled. This is because they are more likely to be earning lower amounts and therefore may find the £70,000 parameter the hardest to reach.

3. Replacing tax relief on pension contributions with a flat rate top-up

Currently, savers can benefit from tax relief on their pension contributions at their highest marginal income tax rate.

There are two ways this is administered: relief-at-source (RAS) and net pay. Neither works for every employee, so could create claims of indirect discrimination brought under the Equality Act.

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For example, non-taxpayers currently saving in a scheme that uses the net-pay system do not receive the relief to which they are entitled.

HMRC will start inviting those affected to receive correction payments from April 2025 – however, only for contributions made in 2024/25 and using a system fraudsters will recognise. Crucially, these payments will have limited appeal as they are relatively small in value, will be subject to income tax and, for those in receipt of Universal Credit, a further 55% clawback.

Looking at the bigger picture, tax relief currently costs the government somewhere in the region of £60bn. According to the Office for National Statistics, most of this value goes to higher and additional rate taxpayers.

This means removing the additional benefit for higher and additional rate taxpayers could save more than £30bn. Which is clearly more than sufficient to cover the £22bn black hole.

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Replacing RAS and net pay with a flat rate of at least 20% will also remove the connection to the tax system.

From a consumer’s perspective, most savers will experience no difference. All non-taxpayers will receive the benefit they are entitled to. Higher and additional rate taxpayers will receive less, but, importantly, the same as everyone else as a percentage of their salary.

Further consideration needs to be given to defined benefit pension schemes. This is because they are dependent upon higher earners attracting the additional tax relief to meet their future liabilities.

However, this change may also create the environment in which the new style of pension, called collective defined contribution, can become a potentially viable alternative.

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The decision for our new government is whether to continue with a complicated and expensive system that fosters inequality or move to a cheaper one that treats everyone the same.

4. Simplify Isas and encourage investment in the UK

Today, we can each place £20,000 per annum into an Isa and benefit from tax-free income and growth.

However, a large percentage of the £750bn in Isas is held in cash-based assets and international funds. This means they are benefitting from the UK tax system, while contributing very little to the economy.

We report on 775 different Isas, distributed through five different types of Isa. With so many options, the decision to drop the idea of a British Isa is welcomed.

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That said, our new government still has the desire for invested wealth that attracts UK tax benefits to be benefitting the UK.

Therefore, I suspect Isas may be replaced or at least given a makeover, such as introducing a compulsory 20% investment weighting towards UK registered equities and UK-based infrastructure projects. Changes that are simple to understand, incentivise regular savings and ultimately drive investment in the UK.

While I would like to see the end of different types of Isa, within their replacement I can see value in offering cash bonuses for those saving to:

  • Buy their first home
  • Buy insurance against care costs
  • Make regular income payments to charity

Richard Hulbert is insight analyst at Defaqto

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Heathrow increases 2024 traffic forecast to 83.8 million

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Heathrow increases 2024 traffic forecast to 83.8 million

A total of 30.7 million passengers travelled through the airport between June and September, including the busiest ever day for arrivals on 2 September

Continue reading Heathrow increases 2024 traffic forecast to 83.8 million at Business Traveller.

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Eni to sell 25% stake in biofuel unit to KKR

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Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Italian energy major Eni has agreed to sell a 25 per cent stake in its biofuel unit to KKR for €2.94bn as it seeks to fund its energy transition through a series of co-investments.

The US private equity firm’s investment will give Enilive, the Milan-based group’s biorefining division, a valuation close to €12bn, the company said in a statement on Thursday. Eni added that €500mn of KKR’s total investment would be used to inject capital into the business and bring debt down to zero.

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The move is part of Eni’s broader strategy to bring in co-investors for divisions it has spun off, before seeking potential listings, as it looks to diversify from oil and gas to renewable energy.

Enilive, previously known as Eni Sustainable Mobility, offers charging stations for electric vehicles and biomethane and hydrogen refuelling options across Italy, Austria, France, Germany and Switzerland. The company also operates Eni’s biorefineries in Venice, Sicily and in the US as well as 22 biomethane production sites in Italy.

The KKR deal comes after Eni sold an 8 per cent stake in its renewable power and retail business, Plenitude, to Energy Infrastructure Partners last year for €588mn.

“This deal represents a new and important step forward in our energy transition strategy,” said Eni chief executive Claudio Descalzi. “Enilive and Plenitude are pivotal to our commitment to offering decarbonised energy solutions and progressively reduce emissions.”

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As part of Descalzi’s strategy, Eni is also planning to sell a minority stake in a new carbon capture and storage (CCS) division. The technology is an innovative way to decarbonise highly pollutant industries, such as steel, cement and chemicals, where no other effective alternative is currently available.

After launching projects in Italy and the UK, Eni said last month it planned to develop “further initiatives in north Africa, the Netherlands, and the North Sea.” Decarbonisation plans were also announced for its domestic chemicals business Versalis.

Shares in Eni were up 1.2 per cent on Thursday morning. The company will report its third-quarter results next week.

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I was hit with a £4,000 bill after discovering invasive plant – it’s NOT Japanese knotweed and our surveyor missed it

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I was hit with a £4,000 bill after discovering invasive plant – it's NOT Japanese knotweed and our surveyor missed it

A HOMEOWNER was slapped with a huge £4,000 bill after discovering an invasive plant had spread across her garden.

The costly plant, which’s not to be mistaken with Japanese knotweed, was completely missed by her surveyors.

An invasive plant has left a home owner to foot the costly £4000 removal bill

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An invasive plant has left a home owner to foot the costly £4000 removal bill
The plant's root system can push up and damage pavings and properties

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The plant’s root system can push up and damage pavings and properties

Leah Jones bought her terraced home unaware that the bamboo plant growing in her back garden was a ticking time bomb.

It had spread underground, crisscrossing beneath her patio and artificial lawn, with new shoots emerging metres away.

The bamboo plant has now left Leah with a massive bill just months after moving in.

Leah said: “When we bought the house, we had no idea of the problems bamboo can cause, and our surveyor didn’t mention it.

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READ MORE IN INVASIVE PLANTS

“It’s going to cost us several thousand pounds to have it removed next month, and the disruption to the garden will be huge.

“Knowing what I know now, I wouldn’t buy a property with bamboo – I’d insist the seller have it removed first.”

Leah’s situation appears to be a growing issue for UK homeowners – the hidden threat of bamboo infestations.

Unlike Japanese knotweed, which is subject to strict legal requirements during property sales, there is no obligation for sellers to declare the presence of bamboo.

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This means home buyers like Leah are often left to deal with the problem themselves after moving in.

Bamboo can be extremely invasive and damaging.

There’s a dangerous plant that’s even worse than Japanese knotweed

The plant spreads through long underground rhizomes that can travel up to 10 metres, potentially causing harm to lawns, patios, and even neighbouring properties.

Plant specialist and Environet Director, Emily Grant, said: “Nobody wants to inherit a stressful and expensive issue when they buy a property.

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“This is frequently happening with bamboo as there is no legal framework to protect buyers, as there is for Japanese knotweed.”

Experts claim to have seen cases where homeowners have “barely unpacked their bags” before discovering the bamboo infestation in their new home.

Emily added: “In addition to potential damage to their own property and garden, buyers need to consider the risk of a legal case from a neighbour if the bamboo encroaches into their property.”

Because Leah was unaware of the infestation, by the time the family noticed the shoots spreading, it had already taken over much of the garden.

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The removal process will require digging up large sections of the patio and lawn, as well as excavating the root systems to prevent the bamboo from returning.

What’s the solution to bamboo that is running rampant?

There really are only two solutions: “removal” or “containment” with root barrier (bamboo barrier).

Herbicide treatment is possible for small shoots, but wouldn’t work on a large established stand of bamboo.

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Removal

Can be highly labour intensive.

There is a need to remove the main plant, often using a stump grinder for the area under the main plant, followed by chasing out any remaining rhizome.

Containment

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If you’ve got bamboo, at a minimum, you should contain it!

By blocking it you’ll do that; however, this will require a specialist root barrier that is extremely flexible with a high puncture resistance to prevent invasive rhizomes.

A barrier with a puncture resistance of at least 4000 Newtons CBR is recommended.

CBR (California Bearing Ratio) relates to the force that can be applied to the material, before it will puncture or fail.

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Leah’s fear is that if left untreated, it could encroach into neighbouring gardens, potentially sparking legal disputes.

With 8% of UK homes now estimated to be affected by bamboo, and a 50% rise in bamboo removal enquiries related to property sales in the last six months, awareness is starting to grow.

But many home buyers are still caught off guard, like Leah, by the extent of the damage it can cause.

It typically costs around £3,500 +VAT to remove bamboo from a residential property.

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As she prepares to have her garden excavated, Leah hopes that other home buyers will be more vigilant and avoid being left with a nasty – and expensive – surprise.

She said: “I hope by raising awareness we can prevent this from happening to other home buyers who may have no idea what they’re taking on.”

Home buyers should be aware of the plant and take necessary precautions, ensuring thorough checks are made before completing a purchase, as the consequences of ignoring it can be both financially and structurally devastating.

It comes as another Brit has revealed her bamboo “nightmare” after a neighbour has insisted she pour diesel over her plants. 

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The most invasive plants in the UK

Several non-native species have been introduced to the UK over the years. These are the most problematic plants to look out for in your garden.

Japanese Knotweed

It is an offence against the 1981 Wildlife & Countryside Act to grow Japanese Knotweed. 

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It might not be poisonous, it is extremely fast-growing and can seriously damage buildings, paving and structures.

Giant Hogweed

It might look rather attractive, but Giant Hogweed can be pretty dangerous. 

The plant’s sap is toxic and can cause burns or blisters if it comes into contact with the skin.

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Himalayan Balsam

Himalayan Balsam is another plant you need to keep your eyes on. 

It produces an array of pretty pink flowers, but one plant is said to be able to spread 2,500 seeds, that are “launched” over a distance of seven metres.

And like other invasive plants, Himalayan Balsam wipes out other plants, growing up to three metres high, drawing out sunlight for smaller plants.

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New Zealand Pigmyweed

New Zealand Pigmyweed is an aquatic plant that can cause havoc in still water, such as lakes and ponds or even slow moving water, such as canals.

It also impacts animals, such as frogs, fish and newts, as it can form a dense mat on the water’s surface, therefore starving the water of oxygen.

Rhododendron

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An incredibly beautiful plant, loved my many gardeners, but the Rhododendron is technically classed as an invasive specie due to its rapid growth in woodlands.

Unlike other invasive species mentioned on this list, it’s not recommended to completely remove or kill Rhododendrons but instead take extra care to manage their growth, trimming and pruning them regularly.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

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Celebrate spooky season in style with our horrifying* new merch

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Celebrate spooky season in style with our horrifying* new merch

With a week to go until Hallowe’en, we’ve popped some seasonal designs up on the FT Alphaville swag shop. Read ’em and weep (with terror):

Don’t worry, the actual resolution is waaaaaaaay better than this

You can find “Long Lags” here, and “Carry” here.

You could look THIS happy! © Redbubble/FTAV

Orrrrrrrr, you can go back to the classics with our “Jay” design, seen here in sweatshirt form:

Just don’t forget to check out the many other designs we do.

And remember: if none of these products appeal, buy some anyway: the more you spend, the greater the chance we end up adding something you do like in the future. Future design ideas go in the white box at the bottom.

Further reading:
Style homepage (FT)

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