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What happens on prediction platforms can steer traditional markets, NYSE chief says

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What happens on prediction platforms can steer traditional markets, NYSE chief says

PALM BEACH, Fla. — Prediction markets are starting to play a role in how traditional financial markets move, New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin said Wednesday at the World Liberty forum in Palm Beach.

“It was very clear for us… that prediction markets [were being used] as an input to traditional markets,” she said at the event hosted at Mar-a-Lago, pointing to a moment during the 2024 U.S. presidential election when S&P futures spiked unexpectedly. According to Martin, the move was later explained by crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket having shown Donald Trump as the likely winner before other sources did.

The comment highlights a growing awareness among institutional players of how on-chain information can influence market behavior. Unlike traditional polling or slow-moving forecasts, Polymarket’s real-time pricing offers a kind of crowdsourced probability feed that traders may find useful.

The NYSE’s interest goes beyond observation. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, made a $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket in October, signaling that the world’s largest stock exchange operator sees a future in blockchain-based forecasting tools.

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CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who took office late last year, echoed Martin’s comments on prediction markets’ role in society, saying they have national security implications and act as a check on traditional newspaper journalism. He also referenced their role in entertainment and sports — the latter being an area state regulators are paying particular attention to.

“The states have really led this campaign of open warfare against markets that are in the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” Selig said. “The CFTC has for decades [overseen] prediction markets.”

He referenced the amicus brief the CFTC filed earlier this week in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in one case, which hours later rejected prediction market provider Kalshi’s request for a stay against the state of Nevada’s efforts to shutter its sports-related prediction markets.

“We’re going to fight this, we’re going to make sure our markets are free and fair and have integrity,” he said. “We won’t have state gaming commissions telling us how to regulate our markets.”

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Crypto World

Warren Urges Fed And Treasury To Reject Crypto Bailout

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Warren Urges Fed And Treasury To Reject Crypto Bailout

Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren has reportedly sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, urging them not to bail out “cryptocurrency billionaires” with taxpayer dollars. 

Warren warned that any potential bailout “would be deeply unpopular to transfer wealth from American taxpayers to cryptocurrency billionaires,” adding that it could also “directly enrich President Trump and his family’s cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial, according to CNBC.

The letter comes as Bitcoin (BTC) prices have fallen more than 50% from their all-time high in October, hitting a local low of $60,000 on Feb. 6.

The letter also came on the same day that World Liberty Financial hosted its first “World Liberty Forum” for crypto executives and pro-industry policymakers at the President’s private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida.

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The US government is retaining seized Bitcoin  

Senator Warren also referenced the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report hearing on Feb. 4, during which Secretary Bessent was asked about his authority to bail out the crypto industry.

During the hearing, Congressman Brad Sherman asked Bessent if the Treasury Department “has the authority to bail out Bitcoin?” or instruct banks to buy Bitcoin or Trumpcoin (TRUMP). 

A bemused Bessent asked for clarification on the question, stating that “within the context of asset diversification within banks, they could hold many assets.”

Related: Senators ask Bessent to probe $500M UAE stake in Trump-linked WLFI

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Sherman also expressed concern that US tax dollars might be invested in crypto assets. “Why would a private bank be your tax dollars?” asked the Treasury secretary.

Bessent confirmed that “we are retaining seized Bitcoin,” which is not tax money, but an “asset of the US government.”  

Senator Warren claims response was deflection

Warren saw the exchange differently, stating in her letter that Bessent “deflected.” 

“It’s deeply unclear what, if any, plans the US government currently has to intervene in the current Bitcoin selloff,” she wrote. 

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“Ultimately, any government intervention to stabilize Bitcoin would disproportionately benefit crypto billionaires.” 

“Your agencies must refrain from propping up Bitcoin and transferring wealth from taxpayers to crypto billionaires through direct purchases, guarantees, or liquidity facilities,” the letter reportedly stated. 

Cointelegraph reached out to Warren and the Treasury for comment, but did not receive an immediate response. A Federal Reserve spokesman confirmed they had received the letter but declined to comment. 

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