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UK consumer and business confidence weaken ahead of Budget

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Line chart of GfK index showing UK consumer confidence slips one point to -21 in October

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Consumer confidence in Britain has fallen to its lowest this year as households and businesses “hold their breath” for tax rises in next week’s Budget.

The GfK consumer confidence index — a measure of how people view their personal finances and broader economic prospects — fell to minus 21 in October, according to data published by the research company on Friday.

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Consumer confidence is an indication of how likely households are to spend income on goods and services.

The index has not been lower since December 2023. With October’s one-point fall, it is at the same level as February and March, before consumer confidence rebounded mid-year.

A separate survey this week showed business confidence also falling to its weakest since last year.

Neil Bellamy, GfK consumer insights director, said consumers were “in a despondent mood” ahead of the October 30 Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to largely rely on tax increases to close what the government says is a funding gap of about £40bn.

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The latest snapshot of consumer confidence gives “a picture of people holding their breath to see what’s in store”, Bellamy added.

Business confidence is also falling, with the S&P Global flash UK PMI composite output index slipping to an 11-month low of 51.7 and companies cutting staff numbers for the first time in 2024.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the PMI index, said “gloomy government rhetoric and uncertainty ahead of the Budget” had “dampened business confidence and spending”.

While Reeves has pledged not to increase rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT, she is expected to prolong a freeze on personal tax thresholds beyond 2028 in a “stealth” tax move that could raise £7bn a year. She has also not ruled out increasing employers’ national insurance contributions.

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In an article for the Financial Times this week, Reeves said the Budget would highlight a choice between investment and decline.

“I am choosing to invest in Britain so we can turn the page on 14 years of slow growth and start making the country better off,” she wrote.

Reeves also confirmed she will change the UK’s fiscal rules in the Budget as she seeks to fund about £20bn a year of extra investment with increased borrowing.

The chancellor said her “investment rule” would ensure Britain avoided “the falls in public sector investment that were planned under the last government”.

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But the deterioration in consumer and business confidence comes despite falls in inflation and mortgage rates.

The consumer confidence index had previously fallen seven points in September, reversing improvements since the start of the year.

Line chart of GfK index showing UK consumer confidence slips one point to -21 in October

Official figures last month showed that household consumption has been weak so far this year, despite a fast rebound in wage growth as anxious consumers prioritise saving over spending.

The GfK data indicates that the uncertainty over the government’s tax plans means that consumer morale has yet to benefit from the better economic data.

Households’ assessment of the economy fell 5 points to minus 42, the lowest reading since March, with a smaller decline in expectations for the year ahead, according to the index, which is based on interviews conducted in the first two weeks of the month.

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Line chart of Purchasing managers’ index, above 50 = most businesses reporting expansion showing UK private sector growth slips to an 11-month low in October

After two years of sharp price rises that hit household finances, inflation fell to 1.7 per cent in September, the lowest in more than three years. It was also the first time inflation has dipped below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target since early 2021.

Markets have increased bets on BoE interest rate cuts this year on the back of the inflation data, after policymakers lowered the benchmark rate from 5.25 per cent to 5 per cent in August, the first reduction in more than four years.

Separate analysis published by the National Centre for Social Research on Friday indicated that concern about public services was outweighing worries about levels of taxation. Almost half of Britons surveyed in July said taxes and public spending should go up, while dissatisfaction with the NHS hit an all-time high of 61 per cent.

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Impact humans have on biodiversity is catastrophic

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

In regard to Andrew Anderson’s contention that there is “no planetary crisis” (“Earth can live without us, just as it did for millennia”, Letters, October 22), it is not so much that the earth could survive perfectly well in the future without us, as much as the catastrophic impact we are having, and will have had, on its biodiversity by then.

We share the earth with other life forms that will not survive because of our brief span here. I believe a sixth mass extinction driven by human activity could be considered a planetary crisis.

Paul Littlewood
St Albans, Hertfordshire, UK

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FT Crossword: Number 17,877

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FT Crossword: Number 17,877

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Barriers in way of funding the global green transition

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Alan Beattie’s opinion piece “The magic pony of private finance fails to fund the global green transition” (Trade Secrets, FT.com, October 17) rightly dismisses the notion that small amounts of public money can mobilise vast sums of commercial capital for the green transition in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).

But the problems go beyond the shortcomings of multilateral development banks and development finance institutions, and into the risk culture and regulatory incentives faced by private investors.

Pension funds in the UK allocated a mere £14.2bn, just 0.5 per cent of their assets, to EMDEs in 2022. This cautious approach is often driven by advisers whose interpretation of fiduciary duty focuses solely on financial returns rather than on environmental, social and governance factors — but even on these terms they may be missing out.

Our research shows that emerging market equities performed just as well as US markets between 2002 and 2021, and outperformed non-US developed markets. Emerging market bonds have also outperformed developed market bonds in most years since 2008.

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Insurance companies, meanwhile, face a regulatory environment that discourages investments in higher-risk or less liquid assets, including EMDE infrastructure, even though these might be more profitable in the

long run. Regulations like the EU’s Solvency II impose capital charges disproportionate to the actual risks, leading to an unfair treatment of non-OECD infrastructure investment. Sustainable finance regulations, such as the EU’s green asset ratio, exclude sustainable investments outside the EU, further complicating the landscape.

With so much global growth shifting to EMDEs, private investors in developed markets are missing out on potentially lucrative returns, as well as the opportunity to invest in sustainable growth. Tackling regulatory and behavioural barriers in these private institutions could unlock the capital needed for a global green transition.

Samantha Attridge
Principal Research Fellow, ODI
London SE1, UK

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Lottery ‘glitch’ saw me miss £500,000 jackpot after system ‘lagged’… it took 24 long hours for the penny to drop

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Lottery ‘glitch’ saw me miss £500,000 jackpot after system 'lagged'… it took 24 long hours for the penny to drop

A LUCKY lottery winner nearly missed that he had scooped a £500,000 jackpot after he “assumed” there was a lag on the system.

A computer maintenance engineer is finally celebrating his £500,000 lottery win a year after having surgery for cancer.

Mr Lingard bought a Lucky Dip ticket for the September 25 draw

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Mr Lingard bought a Lucky Dip ticket for the September 25 drawCredit: PA
He plans to take his first week of unpaid leave since he started work at the age of 16

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He plans to take his first week of unpaid leave since he started work at the age of 16Credit: PA
He celebrated his win on Gorleston beach, where he would go after he was first diagnosed

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He celebrated his win on Gorleston beach, where he would go after he was first diagnosedCredit: PA
John Lingard, from Great Yarmouth in Norfolk, had one of his kidneys removed

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John Lingard, from Great Yarmouth in Norfolk, had one of his kidneys removedCredit: PA
"I may also do a little house-hunting while I'm on the island," he said

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“I may also do a little house-hunting while I’m on the island,” he saidCredit: PA

The win comes after a painful 24 hours of waiting as John Lingard, from Great Yarmouth in Norfolk, said he initially saw no increase on his bank account’s available funds.

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“I assumed there must be a lag or something on the system, so went to work and didn’t give it another thought,” he said.

“Even when I logged on later that day to buy my EuroMillions ticket, I didn’t look more deeply into the message that popped up congratulating me on a win.

“It was only 24 hours later that I finally read my messages and the penny started to drop, although not fully, because at first glance I thought it was £500.10.

READ MORE NATIONAL LOTTERY

“I was just on my way out the door, heading to the supermarket, but when I worked out that it was actually £500,000 plus £10 on another line, I decided driving wasn’t a good idea so walked to the local shop,” he added.

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John bought a Lucky Dip ticket for the September 25 draw via the National Lottery app, and his winning numbers were 13, 15, 18, 30 and 33 with Thunderball number 7.

He said he “felt like I was on cloud nine” when he realised he had won £500,000 in the Thunderball draw.

The engineer’s lotto success follows a nasty cancer diagnosis which saw him have one of his kidneys removed to stop the spread of the disease.

He has since been given the all clear.

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I won lottery prize but Tesco refused to hand over cash due to ridiculous policy and now I’m banned from store

The 66-year-old plans on spending some of his winnings with friends in Tenerife – a place he visited a year ago to find some peace and calm after he was first diagnosed.

“It’s crazy to think that at the start of the year I would come to the beach to find inner peace in all the turmoil of the treatment and my worries about the future,” he said.

He added: “I couldn’t have dreamt that less than 12 months later I would be here celebrating a National Lottery win!”

His trip will be the first week of unpaid leave for the engineer since he started work at 16.

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“I visit Tenerife three or four times a year, but when I left in September I told friends I probably couldn’t make it back before early 2025,” he said.

“Now, thanks to my Thunderball luck, I can afford to take a week off – unpaid – and head back for a little winter sun, and to celebrate with my friends over there,” he continued.

The engineer also said he might do a little house-hunting while on the island to have a “bolthole for the future” and so that he can share some of his fortune with those closest to him.

Lottery warning to check tickets after $390,000 ‘lucky’ prize remains unclaimed – it was bought at a gas station

John added that he has no plans to retires but is keen to spend his money doing fun things with friends.

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But first it will take some time adjusting to his new fortune.

He said: “I started playing when the National Lottery first began 30 years ago and, while all along I’ve believed that one day I would win big, now it’s happened it’s taken a bit of getting used to!”

“And having been through such a challenging time with my cancer diagnosis and treatment, I want to be sure I make the most of every moment, whether that’s work, rest or play.”

How to enter the National lottery?

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For just £2 you can enter the National lottery and be in with the chance of winning up to £10 million.

  • Pick 6 numbers from 1-59 or go with a LuckyDip for randomly selected numbers.
  • You can play up to 7 lines of numbers on each play slip and buy up to 10 slips at a time.
  • Choose to play on Wednesday or Saturday – or both, and then the number of weeks you’d like to play.
  • Follow the link here to play.

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House prices, banking and the economy are all linked

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

In his Markets Insight column Michael Howell warned of challenges for UK investors from “the great wall of debt” that will need refinancing in 2025/26 (October 17). It isn’t just investors who should worry. The prime collateral for all bank loans is property, or rather the land it sits on, because land is in fixed supply and cannot be consumed. Fred Harrison’s Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 (published in 2005) precisely predicted the peak of the last house price boom as end 2007. He predicts the next peak in 2026.

Carol Wilcox
Christchurch, Dorset, UK

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The £2.49 Wilko buy that will slash energy bills and dry clothes quicker

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The £2.49 Wilko buy that will slash energy bills and dry clothes quicker

SHOPPERS are rushing to snap up the £2.49 gadget at Wilko that could help dry clothes quicker.

It comes as the average UK family is forking out £1,834 a year on gas and electricity.

A simple gadget could cut laundry drying time, helping you save on energy bills

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A simple gadget could cut laundry drying time, helping you save on energy bills
Pictured above, the pack of 2 Wool Dryer Balls are available at Wilko

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Pictured above, the pack of 2 Wool Dryer Balls are available at Wilko

And many of us are turning to heated airers to get clothes dry whilst it’s cold and wet outside.

The average Brit will do roughly four loads of laundry per week or 208 washes per year, a study by Ariel found.

For those who haven’t done the maths, it adds up to a shocking 13,000 loads of laundry across an entire lifetime.

But luckily Wilko has a £2.49 gadget that can help ease the costs of this unbearable load.

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The Wool Dryer Balls, sold in a pack of two, offer an eco-friendly and reusable solution that claims to save up to £100 annually on dryer costs.

Made from 100% wool, these dryer balls help reduce drying time by increasing the airflow in your tumble dryer.

They work by separating clothes inside the drum, allowing heat to circulate more effectively.

This means your laundry dries faster, with less static, and comes out softer—all without the need for chemical fabric softeners.

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According to Wilko, the balls not only help clothes dry quicker but also help soften fabrics and reduce wrinkles, making ironing easier.

Martin Lewis explains how to slash your energy bills

The Wool Dryer Balls can be found in-store or purchased online, with free click-and-collect options or home delivery starting at £4.99.

Other dryer balls have been praised by buyers on Amazon.

A happy customer elsewhere told how similar products helped cut down drying time by 45 minutes.

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Using dryer balls could be a way to reduce the amount of time and money spent on drying clothes, especially in the colder months when tumble dryers are in high demand.

A mum-of-three previously shared her huge savings after trying out tumble dryer balls.

She said: “Not only could I save £106.08 a year by using dryer balls, but my clothes came out feeling softer than usual and with less creases so they were easier to iron.”

This small, inexpensive purchase can help to bring down energy usage without requiring any drastic lifestyle changes or compromises in laundry routines.

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How to save on energy bills

If you don’t have a smart meter and haven’t sent your supplier recent meter readings – it’s worth submitting one now.

An updated meter reading will mean your supplier has a more accurate idea of your usage to bill you accurately.

There are several cheap and easy ways to heat your home and cut down your electricity costs.

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Every degree you increase the temperature of your thermostat is estimated to hike your heating bill by about 10% – so get the balance right.

The Energy Saving Trust recommends that your thermostat should be set to the lowest comfortable temperature, which for most is between 18°C and 21°C.

You can also turn your boiler’s flow temperature down as well as any thermostatic radiator valves in some rooms – you could save around £180 annually on your energy bills.

Ventilation is good for health and air quality but it’s the first place where heat will escape.

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If there’s a draught, grab a draught excluder and plug the gap.

Prices for draught excludes start from a fiver in most stores but a thick blanket rolled up next to a problematic door will work just as well.

Seal up any draughty windows with easy-to-use draught excluders, prices for them start at £1.99 and they could save up to £70 on your energy bills.

Loft insulation is also very important as it can stop heat escaping, therefore slashing your heating bill.

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You can buy insulation from all local builder merchants or retailers such as B&Q and Wickes.

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Experts like Martyn James point out that tumble dryers, along with other “wet appliances” like washing machines and dishwashers, are some of the biggest energy users in the home.

He said: “The big offenders are ‘wet appliances’ including washing machines, tumble dryers and dishwashers,” he says.

“Try to only use them for full loads, learn more about what that ‘eco mode’ does as that could save you energy and drop the heat as low as you can go.

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“These machines have to quickly generate heat, so can result in them adding a quarter of the cost of your energy bill.

“‘You should also regularly clean out the lint drawer, which can help your machine run more efficiently.

Other cost-saving tips include lowering the temperature when washing clothes, as consumer experts at Which? found that washing at 20°C instead of 40°C could reduce running costs by up to 62%.

Reducing the number of loads you do can cut your usage and bill, and making sure your doing a full load each time is one way to do this.

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Another way is to get a bargain dehumidifier from B&M to dry clothes which can shave up to £74 off a crucial household bill.

Save money on your laundry and reduce bills

Here are some more ways to save money on your laundry and reduce bills

If you’re shopping for a new machine, consumer group Which? says choosing a more efficient washing machine could save up to £55 a year.

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It might cost more upfront but you will spend less over the lifetime of the product.

An extra washing machine spin before you tumble dry your load could shorten the time you have the dryer on.

Tumble dryers use far more energy, so reducing this cost can add up, and of course in better weather avoid it altogether if you can hang it out to air dry.

Reducing the number of loads you do can cut your usage and bill, and making sure your doing a full load each time is one way to do this.

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The Good Housekeeping Institute reckons you should wash jeans, jumpers and towels after every three uses. But if they look and smell OK, hold off for the sake of the planet — and your wallet.

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