Science & Environment
China’s steel exports expected to falter in 2025 as pain from tariffs spread
JIUJIANG, CHINA – JUNE 17: A worker manufactures seamless steel gas cylinders for export at the workshop of Sinoma Science & Technology (Jiujiang) Co., Ltd. on June 17, 2024 in Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province of China.
Wei Dongsheng | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s steel exports will soon hit an eight-year high, before sweeping tariffs sink in and drag down the industry in 2025, industry watchers said.
As the biggest exporter of steel, China accounts for about 55% of the world’s steel production. The country’s steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to smash through the 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.
Strategists at Macquarie Capital predicted that China’s steel exports will reach 109 million tons this year, before declining to 96 million tons in 2025. Trade tariffs could further curb China’s steel exports, “albeit this may require a while to play out,” analysts from the the investment bank told CNBC.
Their predictions were echoed by analysts interviewed by Citigroup. China’s steel shipment is “skewed to the downside” from next year and onwards due anti-dumping measures, Ren Zhuqian, an analyst from steel consultancy Mysteel, said in a Citigroup note this month.
Foreign markets have been particularly crucial amid a domestic supply glut, as China’s economy grapples with a prolonged property crisis and slowdown in manufacturing activities.
In September, China’s steel exports jumped 26% from a year ago to 10.2 million tons, surpassing the 10-million ton a month benchmark that was last hit in June 2016. In the first nine months of the year, exports rose 21.2% year on year to 80.7 million tons, according to the customs data last week.
After hitting a record high of 112 million tons in 2015, the country’s steel exports had been on a multi-year slide before it started improving in 2020.
Steel export growth has accelerated ever since, propelled by a lack of domestic demand, even as overall export growth in China slowed sharply in September on the back of a series of disappointing data that pointed to a weak economy.
Anti-dumping ‘Wac-A-Mole’
Floods of cheap steel from China had sparked concern among its trading partners of unfair competition for domestic steelmakers. More and more have ramped up anti-dumping measures, including hefty tariffs.
Steel producers in importing countries have been “under massive strain,” said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, especially those in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Thailand expanded anti-dumping duties to 31% on hot-rolled coil, high-strength steel used for critical infrastructure construction, from China in August. Mexico imposed a nearly 80% tariff on some Chinese steel imports late last year.
This month, Brazilian government imposed 25% tariffs on all steel products from the country. And Canada’s 25% surtax on Chinese steel products, which it announced in August, came into effect on Tuesday.
These kinds of protectionism measures tend to have short-lived impacts, said Tomas Gutierrez, head of data at consultancy Kallanish Commodities, as steel exporters resort to measures such as “circumvention,” shaking off the China-label by making transits through a third-party country.
We see a ‘whac-a-mole’ scenario: when one country starts to limit steel imports from China, Chinese steel producers are likely to redirect them to another country until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.
Chim Lee
Senior analyst, Economist Intelligence Unit
But Vietnam’s ongoing anti-dumping probe into hot-rolled coil could derail China’s export momentum as it “impacts a much higher volume of Chinese steel,” Gutierrez said.
Vietnam is a major importer of Chinese steel, consuming about 10% of the country’s steel exports in 2023, according to a Mysteel report. Other top destination markets include Thailand, India and Brazil.
Last month, Indian government ordered tariffs of between 12% and 30% on some steel products imported from China and Vietnam, escalating an anti-dumping duty it imposed on Chinese steels last year.
“We see a Whac-A-Mole scenario,” EIU’s Chim said. The tariffs lead Chinese steel producers to redirect to alternative markets, “until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.”
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration called for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel in April, and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said he could raise tariffs by 60% on Chinese goods if re-elected next month.
But the impact of these threats from Washington would be rather limited, as less than 1 percent of Chinese steel exports, worth $85 billion, were shipped to the U.S. in 2023.
Dwindling demand
For the first time in six years, the World Steel Association this month forecast that China’s domestic steel demand this year would account for less than half of global demand, citing “the ongoing downturn” in the country’s real estate sector.
China’s property-related steel demand may not see a substantial improvement until 2025 or 2026, EIU’s Chim said, as Beijing seeks to curb new housing supplies while clearing existing housing inventories.
New construction starts, the most steel intensive part of the property construction process, will continue to be very weak, Chim said.
Meanwhile, he added, state-led infrastructure investment, which has increasingly pivoted away from roads and railways to energy infrastructure, is unlikely to fill the gap left by home builders.
More domestic steelmakers had scaled back production given poor profitability on steel sales. Almost three-quarters of Chinese steel companies reported losses in the first six months this year, with many at risks of bankruptcy.
China’s production of medium-thick hot-rolled coil — a proxy of flat steel products — fell 5.4% from the prior month in September, and 6.4% on year, according to S&P Global, which cited official customs data.
On escalating trade tensions, a spokesperson for China’s customs administration said a majority of Chinese steel products were to meet domestic demand, before receding that the hard-rolled coils “would have broad appeal in overseas market,” due to continuous innovation and product upgrades in the industry.
A possible tax crackdown
Beijing’s possible crackdown on value-added tax could make matters worse for China’s steel industry.
This year, steel mills have been under pressure from regulators over allegations that they skirted taxes to make exports even cheaper.
Authorities had set up an investigative team to crack down on these “illegal” steel exports, Luo Tiejun, vice president of the state-backed Iron and Steel Industry Association, said in a meeting last week.
“If China really followed through [with the investigation], Chinese exports would be much less competitive and export volumes could come down,” Gutierrez said. But the government may not have the “confidence” for that yet.
Science & Environment
‘consistent and coherent energy policy’ matters
With a historic presidential election just around the corner, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC’s Jim Cramer what kind of government action is important for his company.
“What really matters is consistent and coherent energy policy,” he said. “Affordable and reliable energy is essential to keeping inflation at a level that economies can handle — and that’s why we need investments, and we need stable policy to encourage that investment.”
Wirth stressed that energy is a vital part of the global economy, saying that if supplies are constrained by political actions, it can trigger inflationary reactions across the board. The price of energy, he continued, is “embedded in everything,” and he said other countries are looking to the U.S. for long term commitments about energy and investment in the global supply.
According to Wirth, Chevron is apolitical and tries to work with both parties. He said there are legislators from both sides of aisle — usually from energy producing states — that understand his company’s needs. He said Chevron wants to see people elected to office that believe in free markets, competition and “the economic vitality of this country.”
He also stressed that electricity demand in the U.S. will continue to grow, saying there will be a need for all kinds of power, including wind, solar and natural gas. He added that even though electric vehicles are becoming more popular, combustion engines remain important and produced en masse. And Chevron’s oil has purposes beyond gasoline, he continued. For example, he said, oil helps create petrochemicals which are used for a variety of manufacturing purposes, including to create materials for EVs.
“There’s room for all of it. We’re going to need all of it,” he said, “I want to see every solution that is economic and feasible come to bear.”
Science & Environment
What happened when a rock as big as London hit Earth?
A huge meteorite first discovered in 2014 caused a tsunami bigger than any in known human history and boiled the oceans, scientists have discovered.
The space rock, which was 200 times the size of the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, smashed into Earth when our planet was in its infancy three billion years ago.
Carrying sledge hammers, scientists hiked to the impact site in South Africa to chisel off chunks of rock to understand the crash.
The team also found evidence that massive asteroid impacts did not bring only destruction to Earth – they helped early life thrive.
“We know that after Earth first formed there was still a lot of debris flying around space that would be smashing into Earth,” says Prof Nadja Drabon from Harvard university, lead author of the new research.
“But now we have found that life was really resilient in the wake of some of these giant impacts, and that it actually bloomed and thrived,” she says.
The meteorite S2 was much larger than the space rock we are most familiar with. The one that led to the dinosaurs’ extinction 66 million years ago was about 10km wide, or almost the height of Mount Everest.
But S2 was 40-60km wide and its mass was 50-200 times greater.
It struck when Earth was still in its early years and looked very different. It was a water world with just a few continents sticking out of the sea. Life was very simple – microorganisms composed of single cells.
The impact site in Eastern Barberton Greenbelt is one of the oldest places on Earth with remnants of a meteorite crash.
Prof Drabon travelled there three times with her colleagues, driving as far as possible into the remote mountains before hiking the rest of the way with backpacks.
Rangers accompanied them with machine guns to protect them against wild animals like elephants or rhinos, or even poachers in the national park.
They were looking for spherule particles, or tiny fragments of rock, left behind by impact. Using sledge hammers, they collected hundreds of kilograms of rock and took them back to labs for analysis.
Prof Drabon stowed the most precious pieces in her luggage.
“I usually get stopped by security, but I give them a big spiel about how exciting the science is and then they get really bored and let me through,” she says.
The team have now re-constructed just what the S2 meteorite did when it violently careened into Earth. It gouged out a 500km crater and pulverised rocks that ejected at incredibly fast speeds to form a cloud that circled around the globe.
“Imagine a rain cloud, but instead of water droplets coming down, it’s like molten rock droplets raining out of the sky,” says Prof Drabon.
A huge tsunami would have swept across the globe, ripped up the sea floor, and flooded coastlines.
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami would have paled in comparison, suggests Prof Drabon.
All that energy would have generated massive amounts of heat that boiled the oceans causing up to tens of metres of water to evaporate. It would also have increased air temperatures by up to 100C.
The skies would have turned black, choked with dust and particles. Without sunlight penetrating the darkness, simple life on land or in shallow water that relied on photosynthesis would have been wiped out.
These impacts are similar to what geologists have found about other big meteorite impacts and what was suspected for S2.
But what Prof Drabon and her team found next was surprising. The rock evidence showed that the violent disturbances churned up nutrients like phosphorus and iron that fed simple organisms.
“Life was not only resilient, but actually bounced back really quickly and thrived,” she says.
“It’s like when you brush your teeth in the morning. It kills 99.9% of bacteria, but by the evening they’re all back, right?” she says.
The new findings suggest that the big impacts were like a giant fertiliser, sending essential ingredients for life like phosphorus around the globe.
The tsunami sweeping the planet would also have brought iron-rich water from the depths to the surface, giving early microbes extra energy.
The findings add to a growing view among scientists that early life was actually helped by the violent succession of rocks striking Earth in its early years, Prof Drabon says.
“It seems that life after the impact actually encountered really favourable conditions that allowed it to bloom,” she explains.
The findings are published in the scientific journal PNAS.
Science & Environment
Polar bears face higher risk of disease in a warming Arctic
As the Arctic warms, polar bears face a growing risk of contracting viruses, bacteria and parasites that they were less likely to encounter just 30 years ago, research has revealed.
In a study that has provided clues about how polar bear disease could be linked to ice loss, scientists examined blood samples from bears in the Chukchi Sea – between Alaska and Russia.
They analysed samples that had been gathered between 1987 and 1994, then collected and studied samples three decades later – between 2008 and 2017.
The researchers found that significantly more of the recent blood samples contained chemical signals that bears had been infected with one of five viruses, bacteria or parasites.
It is difficult to know, from blood samples, how the bears’ physical health was affected, but wildlife biologist Dr Karyn Rode from the US Geological Survey said it showed that something was changing throughout the whole Arctic ecosystem.
The researchers tested for six different pathogens in total – viruses, bacteria or parasites that are primarily associated with land-based animals but have been recorded before in marine animals, including species that polar bears hunt.
The study covered three decades, Dr Rode said, “when there had been a substantial loss of sea ice and there’s been increased land use in [this population of polar bears]”.
“So we wanted to know if exposure had changed – particularly for some of these pathogens that we think are primarily land-oriented.”
The five pathogens, as disease-causing agents are collectively called, that have become more common in polar bears, are two parasites that cause toxoplasmosis and neosporosis, two types of bacteria that cause rabbit fever and brucellosis, and the virus that causes canine distemper.
“Bears in general are pretty robust to disease,” explained Dr Rode. “It’s not typically been known to affect bear population, but I think what it just highlights is that things [in the Arctic] are changing.”
Key polar bear facts
- There are about 26,000 polar bears left in the world, with the majority in Canada. Populations are also found in the US, Russia, Greenland and Norway
- Polar bears are listed as vulnerable to extinction by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, with climate change a key factor in their decline
- Adult males can grow to be around 3m long and can weigh close to 600kg
- Polar bears can eat up to 45kg of blubber in one sitting
- These bears have a powerful sense of smell and can sniff out prey from up to 16km away
- They are strong swimmers and have been spotted up to 100km offshore. They can swim at speeds of around 10km per hour, due in part to their paws being slightly webbed
In the US, polar bears are classified as a threatened species; scientists say the biggest threat to their future is the continuing loss of sea ice habitat, which they depend on as a platform from which to pounce on their marine prey.
Previous research using collar cameras on bears has shown that, as they spend more of the year on land – when there is no available sea ice to hunt from – the bears are unable to find enough calories.
Dr Rode explained that polar bears are top predators: “Our study suggested that they’re getting their exposure to some pathogens primarily through their prey species.
“So what we saw as changes in pathogen exposure for polar bears is indicative of changes that other species are also experiencing.”
The findings are published in the scientific journal PLOS One.
Science & Environment
NextEra sees strong data center interest in restarting Iowa nuclear plant, CEO says
John Ketchum, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Nextera Energy, speaks during the 2023 CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas, US, on Wednesday, March 8, 2023.
F. Carter Smith | Bloomberg | Getty Images
NextEra Energy is seeing strong interest from data center customers in restarting the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa, CEO John Ketchum said Wednesday.
“We are very busy looking at Duane Arnold,” Ketchum told investors during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. “We’re very interested in recommissioning the plant.”
NextEra is conducting engineering assessments on the plant and is working with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and local stakeholders on evaluating a possible restart, the CEO said.
“Obviously, it goes without saying, there’s very strong interest from customers, really data center customers in particular around that site,” Ketchum said.
The CEO said in July that NextEra was weighing whether to restart Duane Arnold. He cautioned at the time, however, that the company would only do so if the project was “essentially risk free.”
The Duane Arnold Energy Center northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa ceased operations in 2020 after more than 40 years of service. The nuclear industry in the U.S. faced a wave of reactor shutdowns over the past decade as they struggled to compete against cheap natural gas.
But power companies are pressing ahead with restarting recently shuttered nuclear plants as electricity demand surges from data centers, manufacturing and the electrification of the economy.
Ketchum’s comments on Duane Arnold come a month after Constellation Energy unveiled plans to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania in 2028 through an agreement with Microsoft.
Tech giants such as Microsoft are grappling with massive power needs as they scale up artificial intelligence. Nuclear is attracting growing interest from tech companies because reactors provide large quantities of reliable, carbon-free power. Alphabet’s Google and Amazon recently announced investments in next-generation small nuclear reactors.
Holtec International, a privately held nuclear technology company, blazed the trail for restarting reactors with the Palisades plant in Michigan. Holtec expects that plant to come back online toward the end of 2025. It would be the first nuclear plant in U.S. history to restart after shutting down.
Science & Environment
Big Tech is driving a nuclear power revival, energy guru Dan Yergin says
In this aerial view, the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stands in the middle of the Susquehanna River near Middletown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 10, 2024.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
Nuclear power may be making a comeback in the U.S. after years of setbacks — and big tech is the driving force.
As tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google compete to take the lead in the AI revolution, the data centers needed to power the burgeoning technology consume an ever-increasing amount of energy.
In the last two months, those three companies have penned deals to generate more nuclear power — perhaps most notably, Microsoft struck a 20-year agreement with Constellation Energy to restart a reactor at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, the site of the most serious nuclear meltdown in U.S. history in 1979. The reopening is planned for 2028.
Speaking to CNBC at the annual International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, long-time energy market veteran Dan Yergin described the turnaround as nothing short of extraordinary.
“It’s amazing, the change. The nuclear industry was in the doldrums,” Yergin told CNBC’s Karen Tso on Tuesday, describing the reopening of the Three Mile Island power plant as “symbolic.”
“Big Tech is saying, ‘We need reliable 24 hour electricity. We can’t get it just from wind and solar’,” he said.
Yergin, who has written several books on energy including “The Prize” and “The New Map,” pointed to the booming funding going into the sector. He cited $7 billion in venture capital going into nuclear fusion alone — which does not include financing for nuclear fission, a different energy-generating process.
“This is a really big change, and it reflects in this country, in the United States, a sense that — we’ve had for, really, a generation of flat demand [for] electricity,” Yergin said. “Now it’s going to grow, and there’s real anxiety about, how do you grow it? And nuclear [energy] is back in form, and people are talking about small nuclear reactors. And, of course, you have big tech actually seeking to contract for the output of the electricity from existing nuclear power plants. It’s an amazing change.”
Electricity demand is surging after staying largely flat for some 15 years, fueled by new data centers, factories, electric vehicles, and hotter and longer summers. A recent Energy Department memo cited in numerous press reports projected that U.S. power grids could see as much as 25 gigawatts of new data center demand by 2030.
Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it had closed a $1.5 billion loan for the revival of the Holtec Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan in late 2025, which would make it the first American nuclear plant to be restarted. Google in mid-October said it would purchase power from Kairos Power, a developer of small modular reactors, to help “deliver on the progress of AI.”
Global electricity consumption from data centers, artificial intelligence and the cryptocurrency sector is expected to double from an estimated 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022 to more than 1,000 TWh in 2026, according to a research report from the International Energy Agency.
— CNBC’s Ryan Browne contributed to this report.
Science & Environment
Stripe’s $1.1 billion deal for Bridge marks much-needed win for VC
The Stripe logo on a smartphone with U.S. dollar banknotes in the background.
Budrul Chukrut | SOPA Images | LightRocket via Getty Images
In March 2022, venture capitalist Chris Ahn was pushing to get into a hot crypto startup that was trying to make it easy for businesses to transact using digital currencies.
The company was Bridge Network. As part of his pitch, Ahn flew to a small town in northern Montana with a term sheet in hand for founders Zach Abrams and Sean Yu, who had both previously worked at Coinbase and Block.
“Nobody else had flown out to see them in person,” Ahn, who was a partner at Index Ventures at the time, recounted in an interview on Tuesday.
The three of them hiked together on a path with melting snow, and then conversed over drinks and dinner, as Ahn aimed to convince the founding duo that they should take Index’s money. At the restaurant, he looked to seal the deal.
“I told them I was going to the bathroom, and I ran over to my car, grabbed the term sheet and came back,” Ahn said. “It’s hard to fit a piece of paper in a jacket without crumbling it, and I didn’t want to give them a crumpled piece of paper, so I left it in the car.”
Index landed the investment, getting into Bridge’s seed round in 2022. The firm was part of a more recent round, in August of this year, that included Sequoia and Ribbit Capital and valued Bridge at about $350 million, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the valuation was confidential. Also in the deal was Haun Ventures, founded by former Andreessen Horowitz partner Katie Haun.
Ahn left Index to join Haun in 2022. Both his old firm and his new employer have reason to celebrate this week, after Stripe agreed to buy Bridge for $1.1 billion. With that outcome, Index and Haun are poised to triple their investment in a matter of months.
An Index spokesperson declined to comment.
It’s a particularly notable exit for venture investors during an extended IPO drought, and marks a big win for crypto, which has had few of them despite bundles of cash pouring into the industry.
For Stripe, one of the most richly valued tech startups, the Bridge purchase will be its largest to date. Bridge said the transaction is still subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions and is expected to close in the coming months.
‘Serious about stablecoin’
Bridge describes itself as the Stripe of crypto, specializing in making it easier for businesses to accept stablecoin payments without having to directly deal in digital tokens. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to the value of a real-world asset like the U.S. dollar. Customers include Coinbase and SpaceX.
“It’s a sign that Stripe is serious about stablecoins and crypto,” Ahn said. “Payments were the original use case for crypto, and it’s finally here.”
Stripe is paying a hefty premium.
Investors familiar with Bridge’s financials said annual revenue is in the range of $10 million to $15 million. At the low end of the range, that’s a multiple of 110 times revenue, and at the high end, it’s a revenue multiple of over 70.
“The reason why Bridge is so valuable is because it’s prohibitively difficult for a company to use this new stablecoin tech without developer tools that makes the tech easy to use,” said Ahn.
Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures said that while Bridge has rivals in the category, it’s the most successful stablecoin infrastructure business in the world, excluding the issuers like Circle and Tether.
“Almost every stablecoin startup we talk to is building on Bridge in some capacity whether it’s orchestration or issuance,” said Carter. “They are totally ubiquitous.”
Stripe saw its valuation plummet from $95 billion in 2021 to $50 billion last year, as private tech companies across the board took a major hit from the recalibration of the public markets. Its valuation reportedly rebounded to $70 billion this year as part of a secondary share sale.
Patrick Collison, chief executive officer and co-founder of Stripe Inc., left, smiles as John Collison, president and co-founder of Stripe Inc., speaks during a Bloomberg Studio 1.0 television interview in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Friday, March 23, 2018.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Brothers Patrick and John Collison, who founded Stripe in 2010, have intentionally steered clear of the IPO process and have given no indication that an offering is on the near-term horizon. They’ve got a big business, with total payment volume surpassing $1 trillion in 2023.
Given private market demand for the company’s stock, the company has been able to offer some liquidity to early investors and employees in other ways.
“The private markets have been so generous with providing capital and secondary liquidity to shareholders that, if I’m the Collison brothers and I’m sitting around the table, I’m thinking, ‘Why do I want to go public?’” said David Golden, a partner at Revolution Ventures who previously led JPMorgan Chase’s tech investment banking practice. “Why bother if the private markets are willing to reward you with basically public market premiums and valuations and let you have secondary sales to keep your employees happy?”
When asked to comment, Stripe referred CNBC to CEO Patrick Collison’s post on X about the deal.
Collison called stablecoins “room-temperature superconductors for financial services” in his post, and said that Stripe is going to build the world’s best stablecoin infrastructure.
Bernstein analysts are bullish on what the deal means for the $160 billion U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin market, noting in a report that the acquisition “validates the usage and growth of stablecoins as a legit use case for public blockchains.”
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