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Carlyle drops bid for Thyssenkrupp defence unit over Berlin indecision

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US investor Carlyle pulled out of bidding for Thyssenkrupp’s naval unit after facing indecision and scepticism in Berlin about the involvement of the private equity group in a critical German defence player.

After more than 18 months of discussions, the Washington DC-based firm had hoped to finally secure a decision on its offer to buy a majority stake in Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) at a meeting with German ministers on October 8, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

The German government last year signalled that it was prepared to back a sale of the maker of submarines, frigates and naval electronic systems by taking a supporting stake.

But Carlyle’s lead negotiators were instead met by further indecision, according to two people briefed on the discussions. The economy ministry led by Green vice-chancellor Robert Habeck wanted more time to explore the option of creating an all-German naval giant at a time when Europe was striving to revitalise its defence industry.

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One area of contention between the two sides was the timeline of ownership. The German government wanted the private equity group to commit to holding the company for around 10 years, rather than Carlyle’s preferred 3-5 year window before making an exit, according to two people familiar with the talks.

On Tuesday, the buyout group announced it was quitting the process. With due diligence expected to take months, Carlyle concluded it had run out of road to finalise the deal before the start of campaigning for Germany’s elections next year, at which point the chances of a tie-up were deemed minimal, one of the people added.

Thyssenkrupp was once a symbol of German industrial might, but its struggles to remain competitive over the past few years have become emblematic of the woes looming over Europe’s largest economy. The loss of a serious bidder delivers yet another blow to its long-running plans to split up the company and divest its naval and steel businesses.

The collapse of the talks reflects the deep resistance among some in German business and politics towards the private equity sector. While the nation has seen growing PE investment in recent years, health minister Karl Lauterbach in 2022 lashed out against “locust investors” buying up medical practices. Last year, the country’s top football clubs voted against selling a stake in the Bundesliga’s media and commercial rights to private equity firms. 

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The need for a new solution at Thyssenkrupp presents a fresh challenge for chief executive Miguel Lopez, who joined the Essen-based company last year after his predecessor Martina Merz was pushed out by the board — partially due to her failure to spin off the subsidiaries. 

The former Siemens executive has successfully sold 20 per cent of Thyssenkrupp’s steel business to Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský, but his reputation has been tarnished by tensions surrounding the disposal. In August, the conflicts spilled out into the public when the CEO of Germany’s largest steelmaker and the chair of its supervisory board resigned in protest over Lopez’s handling of the sale process.

At TKMS, which owns Germany’s largest shipyard in the Baltic port of Kiel, chief executive Oliver Burkhard had backed the plan to bring in Carlyle as a key step in a process of consolidation. The aim was to solve the problem of a fragmented warship industry and create a powerful “national champion” capable of competing against the likes of France’s Naval Group or Italy’s Fincantieri. 

He wrote on LinkedIn on Wednesday that company executives “very much regret” Carlyle’s decision to withdraw, adding that it had not been due to “business management [or] the financial performance of our company”. 

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In 2021, the shipbuilder received the biggest order in its history — worth €5.5bn for six Type 212CD submarines for the German and Norwegian navies. It has a backlog of orders with a value of close to €13bn. 

The IG Metall union also lamented Carlyle’s exit, telling the regional newspaper Westfälische Rundschau on Friday that it would have supported a majority shareholding by Carlyle provided the federal government had held a blocking minority and if the buyout firm had made binding commitments towards the company’s roughly 8,000 workers.

The union said it had been holding talks with Carlyle on that issue as well as on future investments. “A solution was within reach, but has now apparently failed due to resistance from the federal ministry of economics,” it added.

Carlyle first expressed an interest in the business in March 2023. German defence minister Boris Pistorius later confirmed that Berlin would consider taking a stake in the submarine maker, most likely through state development bank KfW. State involvement was proposed as a way to ensure liquidity at a company where orders can amount to several billion euros and take years to complete, and where customers are offered multibillion-euro guarantees.

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However, Habeck’s ministry was keen to consider homegrown options. Those included Lürssen Group, a family-owned builder of civilian and military vessels that is interested in merging its naval arm with TKMS and other shipbuilders, according to the people familiar with the talks.

Rheinmetall, the German tank and artillery maker, also expressed interest in taking a stake. It has no track record in the naval sector, but has seen a surge in munition orders as western nations race to rearm and to support Ukraine’s armed forces in their battle against the Russian military.

Ministers considered a German industrial solution to be “promising”, a person familiar with the government’s thinking said. 

Faced with the prospect of further waiting, and the political uncertainty around Germany’s looming elections, Carlyle felt it had little choice but to pull out.

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Following the withdrawal, Thyssenkrupp said it would push ahead with plans to make its submarine business independent, which it said would unlock more funding and growth as well as providing a “good starting position for a possible national and European consolidation”.

“We will also continue unabatedly with our talks with the German government on a federal stake in the marine segment,” the company added. 

A spokesperson for the German economy ministry said that TKMS was “of great importance for the security and defence industry” and said that talks about its future continued. 

TKMS, Carlyle, Lürssen Group and Rheinmetall declined to comment.

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Thyssenkrupp’s marine unit and its chief executive are now back to square one. “At this point the ball goes back to Burkhard,” said one person involved in talks on the future of the shipbuilder. “His original plan didn’t go anywhere. So what is his plan B?”

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Letter: Not all Japanese, it seems, are ready to bite the bullet

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From Masaki Takeda, Kanagawa, Japan

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Corner shop with over 1,000 locations selling Terry’s Chocolate Orange for just £1 so shoppers can stock up for Xmas

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Corner shop with over 1,000 locations selling Terry's Chocolate Orange for just £1 so shoppers can stock up for Xmas

A CORNER shop is selling the beloved Terry’s Chocolate Orange for just £1 – so shoppers can stop up for Christmas.

The deal can be found in One Stop, which has over 1,000 across the country.

Terry's Chocolate Oranges can be picked up at the bargain price of £1 in One Stop shops

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Terry’s Chocolate Oranges can be picked up at the bargain price of £1 in One Stop shopsCredit: Getty

Flavours include the classic original, Chocolate Mint, and Chocolate Orange Toffee Crunch.

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News of the discount was posted in the Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK Facebook group, garnering 125 reacts and 146 comments.

Users were quick to tag family and friends in the comments, with one saying: “May have to go get some mint ones.”

Another mysteriously wrote: “I will have to grab some for our Christmas pudding project.”

The £1 price tag is a reduction from the usual £1.75 – and will be available until November 5.

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Chocoholics can find their local store at www.onestop.co.uk/store-finder/ to shop the deal.

It is the best discount out there for Terry’s lovers, with Chocolate Oranges currently on sale for £1.50-£1.65 at Tesco, £1.50 at Asda, and £1.50 at Ocado down from £2.

It comes just months after Terry’s launched a brand-new flavour of Chocolate Orange – weirdly enough, without the “orange”.

The Chocolate Milk treat, nicknamed “Chocolate No Orange”, hit B&M in August.

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One confused customer wrote: “I’m sorry but it’s a Terry’s chocolate orange. It’s in the name lol.”

Shoppers beg Cadbury’s to bring back 2005 recipe on iconic bar – as they moan current one ‘tastes like candle wax’

In other exciting news for chocoholics, a so-called “extinct” chocolate Cadbury’s bar – the Fuse bar – was spotted in miniature form at B&M.

Meanwhile, shoppers raved about a new type of M&M – the Candy Popcorn M&M Minis.

And Nestle added a new chocolate to its Quality Street “Favourites Golden Selection” pouch: the Toffee Penny.

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How to save money on chocolate

WE all love a bit of chocolate from now and then, but you don’t have to break the bank buying your favourite bar.

Consumer reporter Sam Walker reveals how to cut costs…

Go own brand – if you’re not too fussed about flavour and just want to supplant your chocolate cravings, you’ll save by going for the supermarket’s own brand bars.

Shop around – if you’ve spotted your favourite variety at the supermarket, make sure you check if it’s cheaper elsewhere.

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Websites like Trolley.co.uk let you compare prices on products across all the major chains to see if you’re getting the best deal.

Look out for yellow stickers – supermarket staff put yellow, and sometimes orange and red, stickers on to products to show they’ve been reduced.

They usually do this if the product is coming to the end of its best-before date or the packaging is slightly damaged.

Buy bigger bars – most of the time, but not always, chocolate is cheaper per 100g the larger the bar.

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So if you’ve got the appetite, and you were going to buy a hefty amount of chocolate anyway, you might as well go bigger.

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Stunning English subtropical gardens with own microclimate that ‘feels like abroad’ – and are right by a famous beach

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Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens benefits from a mild climate

A VILLAGE in England is home to an 18th-century subtropical garden where visitors feel like they’re abroad.

Located just 20 minutes from the longest beach in the UK, the village of Abbotsbury is home to Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens.

Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens benefits from a mild climate

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Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens benefits from a mild climateCredit: Alamy
The gardens are home to over 6,000 different plant species

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The gardens are home to over 6,000 different plant speciesCredit: Alamy

The Jurassic Coast village is steeped in history, with Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens being one of its main attractions.

Established in 1765, when the 1st Countess of Ilchester built the castle on the site overlooking Lyme Bay, the gardens are home to thousands of different plant species.

Several generations of the family tended to the garden over the last few hundred years, expanding its growing collection of plant life.

Nowadays, Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens is home to over 6,000 species of plants from around the world.

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Because of its coastal location, which benefits from mild winters and cooler summers, several species of plants can thrive in the Victorian gardens.

Spread over 30 acres, visitors can walk along winding paths through lush landscapes, featuring stunning displays of camellias, magnolias, and rhododendrons.

One of its rarest plants is the Puya, native to Chile, the plant has ferocious spines that have been known to trap sheep, birds and small animals.

The Puya only flowers once every 10 years, with its last blooming taking place in 2023.

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Other features in Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens include a Victorian Walled Garden and a children’s play area.

There’s also a cafe with a wooden veranda and courtyard that’s surrounded by plants.

Four of Scotland’s beaches you have to visit

Light snacks, savoury pastries, sandwiches, cakes and a range of hot and cold drinks are served at the cafe.

Entry into the gardens costs £12.95 for a full-paying adult and £6.95 for kids.

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The Dorset-based gardens has a 4.5/5 star rating from over 1,000 reviews on TripAdvisor, with one person writing: “Who needs to go abroad you have this”.

Another person added: “It’s such a beautiful place, and it really does feel like you’re abroad somewhere”.

A third person wrote: “We visited the garden on a lovely sunny day and it was like stepping into a different country”.

Set on Dorset‘s Jurassic Coast, there are plenty of other attractions in the area, including Chesil Beach.

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Chesil Beach is the longest beach in the country, running from the Isle of Portland to West Bay.

The gardens are near Chesil Beach, which is the longest in the UK

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The gardens are near Chesil Beach, which is the longest in the UKCredit: Alamy

The Dorset beach was the backdrop for Ian McEwan’s acclaimed novel On Chesil Beach.

Despite not having any sand, the shingle beach still draws in holidaymakers from across the UK thanks to its stunning views.

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Chesil Beach is also backed by Fleet Lagoon – a large saline lake, which is one of the last undisturbed brackish lagoons left in the world.

Designated a Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), Fleet Lagoon is an important habitat for many different species of wildlife, including the world’s only managed colony of nesting mute swans.

Three other subtropical gardens to visit in the UK

Here are three subtropical gardens to visit in the UK

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Tresco Abbey Garden, Isles of Scilly
Located on the island of Tresco, this garden boasts an impressive collection of exotic plants from around the world, thriving in the mild climate of the Isles of Scilly. With over 20,000 plants from 80 different countries, visitors can enjoy a stunning array of colours and scents throughout the year.

Abbey Gardens, Isle of Wight
Situated in the picturesque village of Ventnor, the Ventnor Botanic Garden benefits from a unique microclimate that allows a wide range of subtropical and exotic plants to flourish. The garden features various themed areas, including a Mediterranean garden and a New Zealand garden, offering a diverse and vibrant experience.

Logan Botanic Garden, Dumfries & Galloway
Located on the southwestern tip of Scotland, Logan Botanic Garden enjoys the warming influence of the Gulf Stream. This enables an extraordinary collection of subtropical plants to thrive, including palms, tree ferns, and giant gunnera. The garden is renowned for its stunning displays of exotic flora and its tranquil, scenic setting.

Meanwhile, this hotel has been rated the best in the world by travel specialists.

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And this UK seaside town was named the best in the country.

The gardens are located in Dorset

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The gardens are located in DorsetCredit: Alamy
Entry costs just under £13 for a full-paying adult

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Entry costs just under £13 for a full-paying adultCredit: Alamy

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Reeves’ net debt rule should not be confined to financial items

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It’s welcome to read reports that chancellor Rachel Reeves’ new fiscal rule will replace the way gross government debt is measured as a proportion of gross domestic product. The new debt concept being mooted is one that nets off from gross debt selected assets on the government balance sheet. This should loosen the government’s fiscal straitjacket (Opinion, October 12).

However, I am alarmed by indications that these assets would be confined to financial balance sheet components.

It would be a grave mistake to exclude saleable land on the government’s balance sheet when netting off from gross debt. Such an exclusion would critically handicap the implementation of better land value capture, strongly signalled in the Labour election manifesto, and have a crucial impact on whether the government is able to achieve its ambitious housebuilding targets.

One precondition for better land value capture is the repeal of the 1961 Land Compensation Act. The other is a new fiscal rule. Public authorities should be able to borrow to buy land at prices below those that would apply to land that had planning permission. After obtaining planning permission, some of this land could be used for building social housing more cheaply than is currently possible. Some would be sold off to private developers and the profit used to fund infrastructure. Overall, with land included in the assets netted off, net government debt would fall, and housebuilding and growth rise, even though gross debt increases.

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Professor John Muellbauer
Nuffield College and Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK

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What’s next for annuities? Pension experts reveal how to get the best deal for your retirement

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What's next for annuities? Pension experts reveal how to get the best deal for your retirement

PENSION annuity rates and sales are rising and experts say now is a good time to buy one.

But the trick is to find the best deal for your old age.

Pension annuity rates and sales are rising and experts say now is a good time to buy one

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Pension annuity rates and sales are rising and experts say now is a good time to buy oneCredit: Getty

Ellie Smitherman talks you through it . . . 

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IS AN ANNUITY RIGHT FOR YOU?

ANNUITIES are retirement plans pensioners can buy to provide them with a fixed regular income for the rest of their life.

Rates are usually shown as how much money you will receive per year for every £100,000 you pay in.

For example, an annuity rate of 5 per cent would mean you get £5,000 for every £100,000 you invest – so if you paid an annuity provider £50,000, you would get £2,500 a year.

If you buy an annuity, you can opt to take a quarter of your pension pot as a tax-free lump sum.

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The rest is then converted into a taxable lifetime income.

Exactly how much an individual gets from an annuity depends on their personal circumstances, such as if they are in good health, their life expectancy and how much their pension is worth.

Annuity rates have surged in recent years.

Average annuity rates for a 65-year-old are currently 7.18 per cent, up from 5.11 per cent in January 2022.

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The latest data from the annuity comparison tool of financial services firm Hargreaves Lansdown’s shows a 65-year-old with a £100,000 pension pot can get up to £7,146 a year.

Could you be eligible for Pension Credit?

This is up 43 per cent on what they would have got just three years ago.

But money paid from an annuity is subject to income tax.

And taking money from a pension in a lump sum can affect your means-tested benefits – they could be reduced or even stopped.

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What’s next for rates?

RETIREES are rushing to lock in high rates, says Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown.

This is because many think the Bank of England will cut interest rates in the next few months, and this could have a negative impact on annuity rates.

Helen told The Sun: “After years on the sidelines of the retirement income market, annuities are enjoying their time in the sun, as increasing interest rates pushed incomes skyward.”

Emma Watkins of pension provider Scottish Widows added: “While it’s hard to predict the future, many think annuity rates will follow the base rate down over the next few years – while staying well above historic lows.”

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But experts urge retirees not to buy too much into the predictions.

Lorna Shah, managing director of Legal & General Retail Retirement, said: “While some commentators are suggesting annuity rates might change, economic and political uncertainties mean annuity rates can be very hard to predict.

“Instead of trying to make a decision based on rates, it’s important for people to think about personal needs and how different products can work together to give them the best result over the long term.”

HOW TO GET THE BEST DEAL

AS you get closer to retirement age, your pension provider will send you information about the value of your pension pot and the options available to you to take money from it.

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Some providers can offer you an income directly.

Only non-advised providers will give you a quote without you taking advice first

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Only non-advised providers will give you a quote without you taking advice first

But remember, you don’t have to take an annuity offered by your existing provider.

Buying an annuity is usually an irreversible decision so it’s crucial to consider your options, choose the right type and get the best deal you can.

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Research by Hargreaves Lansdown found the difference between different providers’ rates can be worth thousands in retirement.

So shop around for your annuity – it almost always gives you a higher income in retirement.

Use tools such as the Money Helper’s annuity comparison tool, or use annuity brokers to find the best deals currently available on the market and tailored to your circumstances.

You can find a broker online but check reviews and fees.

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Only non-advised providers will give you a quote without you taking advice first.

They will simply offer you the best rate they can find on the market.

There may be annuity providers offering higher rates via only a financial adviser.

If you are close to retirement and unsure about annuities or making the most of your pension pot, Pension Wise can help.

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It’s a free service from government-backed financial guidance adviser, MoneyHelper.

To find an independent financial adviser, see the Unbiased website, but you will likely need to pay for their advice.

You can also compare annuities yourself on the Annuity Ready website .

If unsure how much to save, the Retirement Living Standards website shows the cost of different retirement lifestyles.

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Then use a retirement income calculator to see how much you need to save to reach the level you desire.

Bear in mind there are lots of types of annuities so do your research and get advice to find the best fit for you.

There are pitfalls, too, such as the fact you cannot change your mind – annuities are a lifelong buy so you need to be certain.

This also means if there’s a chance your income needs might change drastically in the future, an annuity might not be the best option for you.

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Remember not to automatically accept the annuity rate offered by your pension provider without checking what is on offer across the rest of the market.

THE BEST ALTERNATIVES

IF you want more flexibility over your income you might want to consider a different approach.

Most retirees now opt to leave their pension invested in the stock market, and take income as and when they need it, via “drawdown”.

As with an annuity, you can withdraw a quarter as a tax-free lump sum, with the rest taxed as income.

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Drawdown is more flexible than an annuity, and returns may be higher, but savings are exposed to greater volatility.

If there is a stock market crash, the fund value will fall, so your income needs may not be met.

If you are considering a draw-down, seek financial advice.

You are not limited to picking one option. You can mix and match.

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So you could use some of your pot to buy an annuity and leave the rest invested to draw an income from it.

FIVE FACTORS KEY TO RATE YOU’LL GET

VARIOUS factors impact exactly how much income you get . . . 

  • GILT YIELDS: Annuity providers tend to fund them using returns from government bonds called gilts. The Government pays the annuity provider a fixed interest amount, tied to the Bank of England interest base rate. When the base rate rises, gilt yields also increase, subsequently boosting annuity rates, as observed in recent years.
  • THE VALUE OF YOUR PENSION: The size of your pot is the primary factor determining your annuity income. The more savings you allocate to buy an annuity, the higher your income will be.
  • AGE AND LIFE EXPECTANCY: How long you are expected to live significantly influences the annuity rate you are offered. The more years this is, the lower your rate, as the provider will be paying you for a longer period. For example, a 60-year-old will typically receive a lower income than a 70-year-old.
  • YOUR HEALTH: Poor health, smoking or being overweight can lead to a shorter life expectancy, which may qualify you for a better annuity rate. It is crucial to declare any health conditions to your provider.
  • YOUR POSTCODE: Annuity providers use your postcode to estimate life expectancy. If you reside in an area with a lower-than-average life expectancy, you may be offered a slightly higher rate.

‘There’s been a cloud over my solar power payments’

Q: I HAVEN’T been paid for my solar panels in almost nine months and I don’t know why.

I got them in 2011 and my energy supplier, Ovo, usually gives me money for energy I generate every three months.

But I haven’t been paid since February this year, covering from December 2023.

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I have complained but haven’t had a straight answer as to what’s causing the delay. Can you help?

Leighton Reardon of Blackwood, Caerphilly

A: SOLAR panels can be a great long-term investment, as your energy supplier should reimburse you for any energy you generate yourself and supply back to the grid.

Unfortunately, there are often requirements you have to follow to ensure you keep getting your payments.

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In your case, for example, Ovo Energy explained that you need to submit a “meter verification” every two years.

This involves sending a photo of your meter to the firm so it can check your latest reading.

You were supposed to submit your latest photo around July 2023, but Ovo said it didn’t receive it until August this year.

A spokesperson for the firm said it sent you a reminder in February.

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But you clearly had not realised this was stopping you receiving your payments, and I’m concerned about why this was not made clear when you repeatedly called to complain.

You said staff on the phone “fobbed you off” and didn’t understand the problem.

I have asked Ovo to investigate, as I feel your problem could have been easily resolved over the phone.

Ovo has now reached out to explain what happened and what you need to do in future.

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And a spokesperson said you will now be paid for the full period from December 2023 to September 2024 by early November, which you are happy with.

A spokesperson for Ovo said: “We’re glad to put this right so Mr Reardon can benefit from his panels.

“Our team continues to be on hand to support with any further questions.

“We encourage customers to contact us if they have any questions about their solar panels.”

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Premium prizes take a hit

MILLIONS of Premium Bond holders will see their chances of winning cash tumble next month.

National Savings & Investments has slashed the prize fund rates for the second time this year in a blow to savers hoping to score a win.

Millions of Premium Bond holders will see their chances of winning cash tumble next month

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Millions of Premium Bond holders will see their chances of winning cash tumble next monthCredit: Getty

Ellie Smitherman explains what you need to know . . . 

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WHAT IS CHANGING? Premium Bonds are a type of savings account that doesn’t offer interest payments like conventional accounts.

Instead, you’re given the chance to win a prize in the draw every month.

The prize fund rates are to be cut to 4.15 per cent from 4.4 per cent from December.

Savers will see their chances of winning in the monthly draw slide from 21,000 to 1 down to 22,000 to 1.

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The prize fund was already cut earlier this year, falling from 4.65 per cent in March.

NS&I is also cutting interest rates for Direct Saver and Income Bonds to 3.75 per cent from 4 per cent where it has been since November 2020.

HOW MUCH CAN YOU WIN? There will continue to be two winners of the top £1million prizes from December’s draw.

And the number of the lowest £25 prizes will increase from 1.49m to an ­estimated 1.5million in December.

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But the number of winnings between the biggest and smallest prize will all fall.

Overall, there will be an expected 5,726,438 prizes worth £435,686,300 in December, down from 5,991,306 prizes worth £461,330,525 this month.

Each £1 you put in ­Premium Bonds is an entry into the monthly prize draw.

All bonds have an equal chance of winning and the more you buy, the greater your chances.

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SHOULD I CASH IN? Two thirds of ­Premium Bonds holders have never won, according to recent figures from a Freedom of Information reguest obtained by savings platform AJ Bell.

These savers may have missed out on significant returns in a higher paying cash account or by investing money – particularly if they have held the bonds for a long time.

If you are looking to make a decent and reliable return on your cash, numerous savings accounts pay a better rate.

For example, you can currently earn 5 per cent interest with app-based provider Chip on its easy access account.

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It’s worth noting that Premium Bond winnings are tax-free.

Anyone who has used up their annual ISA limit or personal savings allowance could benefit by ­saving into Premium Bonds.

Premium Bonds are government-backed, meaning your money is safe and there’s no risk of losing it.

But other banks and building societies are protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which covers up to £85,000 of money per person, per financial institution.

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Israel’s spiralling offensive

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Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

The killing of Yahya Sinwar should mark a turning point in Israel’s more than year-long campaign to debilitate Hamas and secure the release of its hostages held in Gaza. Ever since the militant group’s horrific October 7 attack, killing the ruthless architect of the assault and decapitating Hamas’s leadership has been a prime Israeli objective. Israel has now taken out most of Hamas’s top commanders in Gaza, its political leader Ismail Haniyeh and severely degraded the group.

It was a moment for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take his military wins, reach a deal to end the Gaza war and save the hostages. Instead, Israel’s offensive grinds on, deepening the catastrophe for Palestinians trapped in the enclave and prolonging the agony for the families of hostages.

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The scenes in northern Gaza over the past week have been horrific. Scores have been killed in the days since Sinwar’s death — the toll from Israel’s onslaught is nearing 43,000 people, according to Palestinian officials. Thousands have been forced from their homes. Even the US took the unprecedented step of warning Israel it would suspend arms sales if it did not do more to ease the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe. Israel has also intensified its assault on Hizbollah, wreaking havoc in Lebanon as its bombs flatten buildings — including non-military targets — while its forces push on with an invasion in the south.

Netanyahu is also preparing his retaliation for Iran’s missile attack on Israel three weeks ago. The region will then wait anxiously for the next round of escalation. Hizbollah, meanwhile, weakened by the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, continues to fire missiles into the Jewish state.

Israel, it seems, is locked in endless wars on multiple fronts. The suspicion is that Netanyahu has bet that with the Biden administration focused on the US election, he has a window to strike hard against Israel’s foes and ignore international pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza or with Hizbollah. He is likely to be calculating that a victory for Donald Trump, who during his first term gifted Netanyahu a number of pro-Israeli policies, would give him even greater licence to strike against Israel’s foes and the Palestinians.

Yet the Biden administration seems to be dancing to Netanyahu’s tune: despite calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon one minute, it supports Israel’s goal of degrading Hizbollah the next. None of this serves the stability of the Middle East — or Israel’s long-term security interests. Hamas and Hizbollah can be decapitated and devastated but will not disappear. Many Hamas fighters are believed to be orphans of previous conflicts as cycles of violence breed new generations of militants. When one leader is killed, another takes over. When a group’s military capacity is debilitated, it reverts to guerrilla tactics.

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Military history — including Israel’s past experiences in Lebanon — is littered with the follies of mission creep; of technically superior occupying armies becoming bogged down by insurgencies, often with radical forces filling the void when they depart.

US President Joe Biden must end the year-long cycle of death and destruction. The threat of a full-blown Middle East war grows by the day. It is in the west’s — and the region’s — interest to pressure Netanyahu to take the diplomatic off-ramps that are available. An all-out regional conflict risks drawing American forces into conflict with Iran and its proxies. It would put the Gulf’s oil infrastructure at risk, threaten more disruption to shipping through vital trade routes and fuel more extremism.

Biden has the tools to rein in Netanyahu. He must halt the offensive arms sales to Israel that enable its relentless bombing of Gaza and Lebanon. He can do so without breaking Washington’s commitment to Israel’s defence, including providing air-defence systems. But Biden’s message should be clear: the bombing must stop and the day after must begin. If not, the devastation and suffering in the Middle East will come back to haunt the west.

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