Crypto World
BTC Lightning Network Tops $1B in Monthly Transaction Volume: River
Monthly transaction volume on the Bitcoin (BTC) Lightning Network, a secondary layer for BTC that enables payment use cases, surpassed the $1 billion milestone in November 2025, according to a report from Bitcoin financial services company River.
Transaction volume on the Lightning Network hit an estimated $1.1 billion in November, across 5.2 million transactions, according to a report shared by Sam Wouters, River’s director of marketing. The report said:
“Lightning adoption happened despite the price declining all of November and generally not doing much in 2025. The adoption was largely driven by exchanges, as well as a growing number of businesses accepting bitcoin payments.”
However, the total transaction count in 2025 is lower compared with 2023, when monthly Lightning transactions peaked at 6.6 million in August of that year, which River attributed to experiments with micropayments in gaming and messaging apps.
The report forecast a similar surge in Lightning transactions as individuals and businesses experiment with AI payments.
The Bitcoin Lightning Network helps scale the Bitcoin network, enabling Bitcoin payments between parties that settle in seconds instead of minutes, encouraging Bitcoin’s use as a medium of exchange, instead of just a risk asset or store of value.
Related: Voltage rolls out USD-settled Bitcoin Lightning credit line for businesses
Exchanges and institutional clients adopt Lightning Network
The Lightning Network reduces transaction costs and settlement times by opening up a payment channel between two or more parties to handle transactions offchain, posting only the net balance of the channel to the Bitcoin ledger once it is closed.
Typically, Bitcoin blocks take 10 minutes on average to be added to the ledger, severely limiting BTC payments, particularly for smaller purchases at physical businesses.
In December 2025, the Lightning Network’s capacity, the total number of coins locked on the network for liquidity, reached 5,606 BTC, as more companies and institutions began using it.
Secure Digital Markets, an Institutional trading and lending company, sent crypto exchange Kraken $1 million in a Lightning transaction in February.
The transaction showed that large, seven-figure amounts can be transferred between institutional parties using Bitcoin’s layer-2 scaling network.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum: BIP-360 co-author
TLDR
- Mike McGlone adjusted his Bitcoin price forecast from $10,000 to $28,000 following significant backlash on social media.
- McGlone had originally warned that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if U.S. equities peaked and a recession followed.
- The revised forecast of $28,000 is based on historical price distribution and fewer negative factors needed to reach that level.
- Analysts like Jason Fernandes criticized McGlone’s initial prediction, calling it alarmist and unrealistic.
- Mati Greenspan acknowledged the possibility of a $28,000 Bitcoin price but remained skeptical of its likelihood in the current market.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone recently adjusted his bitcoin price forecast, raising his downside target to $28,000. This shift followed criticism after his initial prediction of a potential $10,000 Bitcoin price was widely questioned on social media. McGlone’s revised stance comes after market experts accused him of issuing alarmist forecasts that could negatively impact investor decisions.
McGlone Faces Backlash for $10,000 Bitcoin Call
Earlier this week, McGlone warned that bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if U.S. equities reach their peak and a recession follows. He stated that bitcoin, being a high-beta asset, would suffer in a market breakdown, especially after the collapse of the “buy the dip” mentality. This prediction attracted significant criticism, with market analyst Jason Fernandes challenging the forecast on social media platforms like X and LinkedIn.
The backlash grew when Fernandes called McGlone’s $10,000 forecast unrealistic. He argued that such a dramatic drop would require several negative factors to align. Fernandes, in his critique, noted that the bitcoin price could face risks but stated that $28,000 was a more plausible level, particularly with fewer factors needed to drive that price point.
Bitcoin Price Forecast Revised to $28,000
In a subsequent post, McGlone acknowledged the feedback and adjusted his bitcoin price forecast. He pointed to $28,000 as a more likely scenario, citing historical price distribution as the basis for his updated target. Despite this revision, McGlone still maintained a cautious outlook, advising against investing in bitcoin or other risk assets.
While McGlone’s $28,000 prediction was seen as more reasonable, some market experts like Mati Greenspan remained skeptical. Greenspan suggested that although $28,000 might be possible, the likelihood of it happening was still low. He emphasized the unpredictable nature of markets, stating that while forecasts could be helpful, they should not rule out other possibilities.
Fernandes Challenges McGlone’s Forecast Shift
Fernandes, who had initially criticized McGlone’s $10,000 prediction, continued to voice concerns even after the revision. He highlighted that McGlone’s updated forecast now aligned closer to his own lower-bound estimate of bitcoin’s price range. Fernandes pointed out that a reset in the $40,000 to $50,000 range remained more probable, especially without a systemic liquidity shock.
Despite the change in McGlone’s outlook, the broader discussion highlighted the potential dangers of deterministic predictions in volatile markets like crypto. Analysts warned that alarmist forecasts could influence positioning and potentially lead to unnecessary risks for investors. Fernandes emphasized the need for more balanced approaches when discussing the future of high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Epstein’s 2010s emails show Gensler talks, XRP/XLM bets, CBDC and stablecoin funding links.
Summary
- 2018 emails show Epstein sought crypto talks with Gensler and briefed Summers on early digital currency discussions.
- Records cite about $3m into Coinbase plus speculative exposure to XRP, XLM, Circle and early stablecoin structures tied to Brock Pierce.
- Reports mention funding for MIT-linked CBDC pilots and private crypto ventures as crypto policy circles were still nascent.
Newly released documents from the Jeffrey Epstein case contain references to communications involving cryptocurrency policy discussions and Gary Gensler, according to reports published this week.
The documents include emails dated 2018 that reportedly mention conversations between Epstein and individuals connected to policy and academic circles in the cryptocurrency sector. Gensler, who later served as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, appears among the names referenced in the materials.
According to the reports, the files contain correspondence suggesting Epstein discussed arranging a meeting with Gensler regarding cryptocurrency topics. Emails from 2018 indicate Epstein told former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers that Gensler had arrived early for crypto-related discussions, according to the documents. Summers reportedly responded that he knew Gensler and considered him intelligent.
No documents released to date have established a direct connection between Epstein and any specific cryptocurrency decision or project, according to available reports. However, records suggest Epstein invested millions in early cryptocurrency ventures, including approximately $3 million in Coinbase in 2014, reports stated.
Some emails reportedly referenced XRP and Stellar, leading to speculation about possible investments in those projects, though the documents do not provide clear confirmation, according to observers.
Additional claims in the reports suggest Epstein provided funding for U.S. central bank digital currency pilot programs through MIT and certain Federal Reserve Banks. Gensler taught at MIT during that period and worked in academic policy circles before entering government service and participating in the development of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation.
Reports also indicate Epstein explored early stablecoin-related investments, including Circle, through connections associated with Brock Pierce. Pierce reportedly requested Epstein’s assistance in connecting with Lawrence Summers, according to accounts of the correspondence.
The documents suggest Epstein maintained investments in private cryptocurrency ventures while maintaining relationships with academic and policy circles involved in digital currency regulation, according to analysts reviewing the materials. The timing of these connections has drawn attention as they occurred before cryptocurrency markets achieved mainstream adoption.
A key volatility indicator for Bitcoin (BTC) has narrowed to its tightest measurement on record, a pattern that was followed by a multimonth rally in previous bull and bear markets. Will the Bollinger Bands indicator call the market bottom again?
Record Bitcoin Bollinger Band compression hints at volatility
Analyzing the monthly Bitcoin chart, crypto analyst Dorkchicken noted that BTC’s Bollinger Bands are currently at their “tightest” level on record. Such conditions have repeatedly led to bullish breakouts, with the only prior downtrend from similar conditions occurring in 2022, during the drop to $16,000 from $20,000.
Bollinger Bands measure price volatility, and extreme compression often leads to a sharp expansion. The analyst added that there are higher odds of an upside trend once expansion begins.
On the contrary, Bitcoin trader Nunya Bizniz pointed to an approaching 50- and 200-period simple moving average (SMA) death cross on the three-day chart. A death cross occurs when the shorter-term moving average falls below the longer-term average, signaling weak price momentum.
Across the past three instances, the pattern marked drawdowns of about 50% over the following one to six months and aligned closely with final cycle capitulation phases.
A similar path may imply a potential bottom between March and August near $33,000. The trader also said that BTC has spent 110 days below its short-term holder cost basis of $89,800. During previous cycle lows, the price typically remained under that level for nearly 200 days on average.
Market analyst Ardi also noted that the long futures exposure from retail traders has increased on each dip to $68,000 from $88,000. Currently, 72% of tracked retail accounts are long into a descending trendline.
While this reflects early signs of market optimism, each recent surge in long positioning has been followed by a sharp sell-off. With positioning once again elevated, these longs remain vulnerable to liquidation, increasing the risk of a liquidity hunt if the price moves lower.
Related: Bitcoin ‘roadmap to bottom’ says $58.7K Binance cost basis now crucial
BTC’s Sharpe ratio is interesting, but $70,000 remains the level to crack
Crypto analyst MorenoDV said that Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has dropped to -38.38, matching levels last seen in 2015, 2019 and late 2022.
The Sharpe ratio measures the risk-adjusted return, and deeply negative readings mark periods of deep drawdown and volatility. Each extremely low ratio signal has aligned closely with the major cycle lows, leading to strong BTC rallies, with the analyst noting that the current price range may be a “generational buy zone.”
Glassnode data calls for confirmation through a stronger BTC demand absorption. Since early February, each move above the $70,000 level has stalled as the net realized profits exceeded $5 million per hour.
Glassnode added that in Q3 2025, profit-taking between $200 million to $350 million per hour did not interrupt the advance to new highs in Q4.
Related: ‘Resilient’ Bitcoin holders defend BTC, but bear floor sits 20% lower: Glassnode
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Bitcoin’s recent sell-off isn’t because of quantum computing fear, because if that were the case, Ether would be soaring, says Bitcoin developer Matt Carallo.
“I strongly disagree with the characterization that Bitcoin’s current price is materially, because of some kind of quantum risk,” Carallo told journalist Laura Shin on the Unchained podcast on Thursday.
“If that were true, then Ethereum would be up substantially on Bitcoin,” he added. Ether (ETH) is down 58% since a major crypto market crash in early October, trading at $1,957 at the time of publication.
Carallo’s comments come as several Bitcoiners have argued that fears of quantum computing affecting the blockchain is partly why Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 46% from its October all-time high of $126,100 to now trade at $67,162, according to CoinMarketCap.
Ethereum zones in on quantum readiness
Some Bitcoin users have accused the blockchain’s developers of not moving quickly enough to make the network quantum-resistant, while the Ethereum Foundation has said it is taking measures to be ready.
In its protocol update on Wednesday, the Ethereum Foundation outlined long-term post-quantum readiness as part of its broader security initiative.
Carallo said that although quantum computing poses long-term risks to Bitcoin, market makers don’t see it as a pressing short-term threat, arguing that the Bitcoin community is just looking for a scapegoat.
“There are a lot of Bitcoiners who want to blame something, blame someone for lackluster performance.”
Carallo said that a more likely reason for Bitcoin’s price decline is that it is now “competing for capital” in a way it never has before against other technologies such as artificial intelligence.
“AI is super capital-intensive,” he said, adding that it is a “massive new investment class that is substantially competing for capital.”
“There’s a lot of interest in value accrual that will happen because of AI in traditional equities,” Carallo said.
Bitcoiners are of the opposite opinion
Not all Bitcoiners agree with Carallo, as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said at Cointelegraph’s LONGITUDE event on Feb. 12, that the risk should be priced into Bitcoin until it becomes quantum-resistant.
“Today, you kind of have to start to discount the value of Bitcoin based on that risk until it’s solved,” Edwards said.
Related: Bitcoin bottom signal that preceded 1,900% rally flashes again
Meanwhile, entrepreneur Kevin O’Leary told Magazine in December that using quantum computing to crack Bitcoin may not be the most efficient use of the resources, and there is more upside in using the technology for areas such as medical research.
In May 2025, the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, updated the registration statement for its iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) to warn investors of the potential risks to the integrity of the Bitcoin network posed by quantum computing.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum: BIP-360 co-author
TLDR:
- Metaplanet reports shareholder growth into the hundreds of thousands as its Bitcoin treasury strategy gains global reach.
- The company increased Bitcoin per share by over 500 percent in 2025 through accumulation and derivatives-based income.
- Management confirmed it will never sell Bitcoin and will rely on volatility-driven strategies to grow reserves.
- Executives acknowledged drawdowns but maintained that long-term fundamentals guide every treasury decision.
Metaplanet’s shareholder base has expanded to hundreds of thousands as the company doubles down on its Bitcoin-focused treasury strategy. The firm acknowledged market volatility while confirming that its accumulation plan remains unchanged.
Management pointed to rising global adoption and Bitcoin’s fixed supply as core drivers of confidence. The update comes as digital asset markets continue to test investor patience.
Metaplanet Bitcoin Strategy Centers on Long-Term Accumulation
Simon Gerovich credited the company’s rapid shareholder growth to sustained belief in its Bitcoin-centered model.
He said early support came from only a small group of investors. Today, ownership spans multiple regions, reflecting wider participation in crypto-linked equity strategies.
According to a statement shared on X, the firm increased its Bitcoin per share by more than 500 percent during 2025. The company framed this metric as its primary performance benchmark.
Management said every decision now prioritizes expanding that ratio over short-term price movements.
Gerovich also acknowledged that volatility has created difficult periods for shareholders. He noted that conviction does not remove the pain of drawdowns.
The company stressed that its outlook remains anchored in long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market cycles.
The executive added that criticism tends to intensify when Bitcoin prices decline. He argued that abandoning strategy during downturns usually leads to weaker long-term outcomes.
The company maintained that discipline matters most during unstable market conditions.
Derivatives and Market Outlook Shape Bitcoin Accumulation Plan
Metaplanet said its derivatives strategy allows it to acquire Bitcoin at more favorable levels than spot purchases alone.
The firm uses structured trading approaches designed to benefit from price swings. Management described this as a risk-managed method that supports consistent accumulation.
The company also highlighted income generation through derivatives as a core operational pillar. This approach aims to strengthen treasury growth without selling existing Bitcoin holdings.
Metaplanet reiterated that it does not plan to liquidate its reserves under any circumstances.
Gerovich shared a personal view that Bitcoin may have found support near the $60,000 level. He emphasized uncertainty and said no one can predict exact price direction.
Despite that view, the company said its strategy would not change regardless of short-term movements.
Metaplanet linked its long-term outlook to Bitcoin’s fixed supply and expanding global use. Management said these features support its belief in higher valuations over time. The firm stated that shareholder trust remains central to every operational decision.
The update was released through Gerovich’s verified social account and echoed the company’s broader messaging on transparency. It signals continued commitment to BTC accumulation amid fluctuating market sentiment.
The firm positioned itself among a growing group of Bitcoin treasury companies pursuing long-term exposure.
Crypto fear index fell from 12 to 10 this week as Iran’s Hormuz drills raised oil and energy risk for BTC miners.
Summary
- Crypto fear and greed index dropped from 12 to 10 as Iran’s naval drills briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil route.
- Roughly 20–25% of seaborne oil and about 20% of global petroleum consumption move via Hormuz, making closures a direct shock channel to energy prices.
- Higher energy costs can compress BTC mining margins and force some miners to scale back or sell holdings, tightening market liquidity during macro uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency market sentiment declined this week as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East, with Iran conducting military drills that temporarily shut down the Strait of Hormuz, according to market data and reports.
The crypto fear and greed index dropped from 12 points on Monday to 10 points on Tuesday, reflecting subdued market sentiment that coincided with rising tensions between Iran and the United States.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical passage for global oil transport, with approximately 31 percent of all crude oil transported across oceans passing through the waterway. Disruptions to this route typically result in higher oil prices and increased energy costs globally.
Elevated energy costs could impact Bitcoin mining operations, potentially forcing some miners to reduce operations or liquidate cryptocurrency holdings to cover operational expenses, according to market analysts. This represents one mechanism through which geopolitical events affect cryptocurrency valuations and market liquidity.
Iran’s temporary closure of the strait occurred as part of military exercises, though the action came amid heightened tensions with the United States. Iranian and U.S. officials met in Geneva, Switzerland, this week for diplomatic talks, according to reports.
The outcome of those negotiations could determine the trajectory of regional tensions and their impact on global markets. A breakdown in talks could signal escalation, while successful de-escalation might improve market sentiment, analysts noted.
Cryptocurrency trading volumes remained low this week as investors awaited key U.S. economic data releases. The U.S. Federal Reserve was scheduled to release durable goods data mid-week, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data expected Friday. Traders typically await such data to establish directional market positions.
Macro factors have influenced cryptocurrency markets in recent months, with risk-on assets including digital currencies showing sensitivity to geopolitical events and global economic conditions, according to market observers.
TLDR:
- FOCIL and EIP-8141 allow smart wallet and privacy transactions to reach blocks without wrappers or intermediaries.
- Randomized includers reduce proposer dominance and increase censorship resistance for all Ethereum transactions.
- Rapid inclusion within one or two slots becomes likely even under hostile network behavior.
- Future FOCIL expansion could support most block transactions while preserving MEV auction mechanics.
Ethereum is moving closer to censorship-resistant transaction inclusion after new technical links emerged between FOCIL and EIP-8141.
The update focuses on ensuring that all transaction types reach the blockchain quickly, even under hostile network conditions. It also expands how smart accounts and privacy protocols interact with block production.
The development highlights Ethereum’s push to reduce proposer power while keeping network incentives intact.
How FOCIL and EIP-8141 Enable Direct Transaction Inclusion
According to a post shared by CEO Vitalik Buterin, FOCIL works alongside EIP-8141 to make smart accounts and privacy tools first-class transaction senders.
EIP-8141 builds on account abstraction by allowing smart wallets to submit transactions directly onchain without wrappers or intermediaries. These accounts can support multisignature controls, quantum-resistant keys, and gas sponsorship.
FOCIL then ensures that these transactions gain rapid inclusion through randomly selected includers each slot. In every block, up to 17 actors can include transactions, instead of relying on a single proposer.
Vitalik noted that this structure creates a path for almost guaranteed inclusion within one or two slots. It also allows privacy protocol transactions to enter blocks through the public mempool without relying on broadcasters or relayers.
Why FOCIL and EIP-8141 Weaken Proposer Control
FOCIL currently limits each inclusion list to about 8 kilobytes, keeping the design lightweight in its first phase. However, the roadmap allows these lists to grow and potentially carry most transactions in future blocks.
The approach mirrors some features of multiple concurrent proposer models without removing proposer-builder separation. Instead, it preserves the MEV auction for the final ordering role through ePBS.
Even if all proposer slots were captured by a hostile entity, transactions would still reach blocks through FOCIL includers. This reduces the ability of any single actor to block or discriminate against certain applications.
The design shifts power away from centralized block producers while keeping economic incentives stable. It also protects smart wallet operations and privacy protocol activity from selective exclusion.
Developers say the combination strengthens the base layer against censorship without forcing changes to existing transaction flows. Transactions from smart accounts can move through the public mempool and directly reach includers.
With these changes, ETH positions itself to support a wider range of transaction types under adversarial conditions. The update reinforces ongoing work on account abstraction and block inclusion guarantees.
TLDR:
- Payward’s acquisition of Magna links token vesting and claims infrastructure directly into Kraken’s expanding product ecosystem.
- Magna will continue operating independently while its tools integrate with Kraken’s broader token issuance and distribution roadmap.
- The deal extends Kraken’s reach from trading into fundraising and long-term token lifecycle management services.
- Magna’s platform already supports over 160 projects with peak total value locked of $60 billion in 2025.
Payward has acquired Magna in a move that extends Kraken’s services beyond trading into token lifecycle management. The deal brings vesting, claims, and distribution tools into Kraken’s broader financial infrastructure stack.
Company leaders described the transaction as part of a push toward verticalized crypto services. Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.
Payward Acquires Magna to Build End-to-End Token Infrastructure
The announcement came through a company blog post and was later echoed in a social update from Dave Ripley. The post confirmed that Magna will continue operating as a standalone platform while integrations progress.
Magna provides tooling for onchain and offchain vesting, token claims, custody workflows, and specialized staking features. These services support teams running complex token distributions and treasury operations.
According to Payward, the acquisition supports its expansion from trading infrastructure into fundraising, issuance, and long-term network management.
The company said Magna already serves teams managing billions of dollars in active token ecosystems.
Arjun Sethi framed the deal as an effort to avoid concentration around distribution and access. He said open, chain-aware infrastructure connects fundraising, liquidity, and distribution into one operating layer.
Kraken Expands Beyond Trading With Magna Integration
Kraken’s on-chain leadership linked the move to a broader strategy around issuer services. Calvin Leyon said the exchange aims to extend trusted infrastructure across the full token lifecycle.
Magna will initially focus on onboarding and security hardening while preserving its existing integrations. Payward said later phases will align the platform with token issuance and global distribution workflows.
Magna’s client base includes more than 160 projects, with peak total value locked reaching $60 billion in 2025. The company has positioned itself as a core operational layer for token generation events and ongoing community management.
Bruno Faviero stated that joining Kraken provides resources for deeper liquidity and global reach. He added that Magna will continue supporting teams across multiple chains and custody setups.
Payward confirmed that Magna customers can keep using current products without disruption. Product updates will roll out gradually as foundational integrations advance.
The acquisition strengthens Kraken’s role beyond exchange services into infrastructure for builders and issuers. It also signals growing demand for standardized tools that manage vesting, distribution, and compliance at s
For some institutional investors, trading ETH below $2,000 represents an opportunity rather than a risk, despite growing concerns about expanding unrealized losses.
ETH has now entered its sixth consecutive month of decline. This marks the longest losing streak since the 2018 downtrend.
Tom Lee and K3 Capital Boost ETH Holdings as Staking Ratio Hits Record High
According to Lookonchain, Tom Lee — founder of Fundstrat and head of Bitmine — executed large ETH purchases during the third week of February.
On February 18 alone, Bitmine acquired an additional 35,000 ETH worth approximately $69.37 million. The purchase included 20,000 ETH, valued at $39.8 million, from BitGo, and 15,000 ETH, valued at $29.57 million, from FalconX.
K3 Capital also made a significant move. Data from OnchainLens shows that a wallet linked to the investment fund purchased 20,000 ETH worth $40.08 million from Binance.
These sizable transactions reflect strong long-term conviction in ETH, even as the asset trades below $2,000.
Data from CryptoRank indicates that long-term investors have increased Ethereum accumulation during the current downturn.
Meanwhile, data from CryptoQuant shows that inflows into ETH accumulation addresses over the past six months have reached the most active period in history. History shows that in 2018, ETH experienced seven consecutive months of decline before recovering.
“The whales and the largest banks are buying and building on ETH. These are the highest inflows into whale‑accumulation wallets we’ve seen. Meanwhile, retail has abandoned it and is calling for its failure. They’re tired and exhausted after watching the price chop inside this massive range for five years.” – Crypto investor Seth commented.
Another key milestone has emerged. For the first time in Ethereum’s 11-year history, more than half of the total ETH supply has been staked.
On-chain data platform Santiment reports that over 50% of the ETH supply now resides in the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) contract.
This contract functions as a one-way vault. Investors deposit ETH into staking to secure the network. Staked coins temporarily leave circulation and cannot be traded.
Staking activity has continued to rise, particularly during bearish cycles. As more ETH becomes locked, the liquid supply declines.
“When over 50% of the supply is locked in staking, liquid supply shrinks. Fewer coins are available for trading. That reduces sell pressure and makes the market more sensitive to new demand.” Validator Everstake stated.
Everstake clarified that 50.18% represents the total ETH held by the Ethereum PoS contract address, while the remaining 30% is active stake.
However, recent analysis by BeInCrypto does not rule out the possibility that ETH could decline further to $1,385 in the short term, amid the most negative market sentiment seen in years.
Even if that scenario unfolds, on-chain data suggests that large investors and institutions continue to position for a long-term recovery.
TLDR:
- Crypto built for AI agents treats rigid code as infrastructure instead of a flaw in financial design.
- Legal contracts favor human judgment, while smart contracts favor machine verification and execution.
- AI wallets bypass legacy systems that only recognize humans and registered institutions.
- Self-driving wallets could replace manual interaction with automated on-chain decision systems.
Crypto has long struggled with usability, security risks, and trust gaps for everyday users.
A new framework suggests those flaws reflect a deeper design choice rather than engineering failure. The argument centers on crypto built for AI agents, not for human decision-making. This shift reframes why smart contracts rely on rigid logic instead of legal judgment.
Crypto Built for AI Agents Challenges Human-Centered Finance
The idea gained traction after a commentary shared by Milk Road and attributed to Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly. He highlighted that even crypto-native firms still rely on traditional legal contracts when making investments.
Despite having engineers capable of auditing smart contracts, Dragonfly continues to use courts and lawyers for enforcement.
Legal systems allow judges to apply context and reason when disputes arise. Code executes instructions without interpretation.
Humans instinctively trust law because it reflects centuries of social and institutional design. Banking infrastructure assumes mistakes, reversals, and mediation will occur. Smart contracts offer none of those safety valves.
For machines, those same traits become advantages.
An AI agent can verify addresses, audit logic, and simulate outcomes in seconds. Deterministic code removes uncertainty that legal frameworks introduce through jurisdiction and precedent.
Crypto Built for AI Agents Aligns With Machine-Only Transactions
The traditional financial system only recognizes humans, companies, and governments as valid participants. It has no category for autonomous software actors. That creates unresolved questions around liability, compliance, and sanctions when AI systems transact.
Crypto avoids those constraints by treating every participant as a wallet controlled by code.
An AI agent can hold funds and execute agreements without legal identity. This structure allows machine-to-machine commerce to operate without regulatory classification barriers.
Supporters of the thesis argue that features humans dislike are optimal for automation.
Long addresses, gas fees, and permissionless access form a strict specification layer. AI systems interpret these rules as predictable infrastructure rather than friction.
This logic underpins the concept of a “self-driving wallet.” Instead of users clicking through decentralized apps, they would issue goals to an agent. The agent would evaluate protocols and construct transactions automatically.
Machine-to-machine transactions already occur in limited forms across on-chain trading bots and automated liquidity strategies. The framework suggests those activities will expand into broader economic coordination. Humans would remain supervisors rather than operators.
The argument does not claim crypto failed its original mission. It proposes that crypto found its natural counterpart in autonomous software. Earlier technologies followed similar paths once complementary tools emerged.
Milk Road framed the thesis as a rethinking of long-standing crypto criticism.
Problems such as complexity and rigidity may reflect optimization for non-human users. In that view, crypto’s future lies in becoming financial infrastructure for artificial agents rather than consumer interfaces.
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