UFC 308 is finally here!

This Saturday, Ilia Topuria puts his featherweight title on the line against Max Holloway in one of the most highly anticipated fights of the year. On top of that, the co-main event features a big-time middleweight matchup with former champion Robert Whittaker taking on Khamzat Chimaev in what may well determine the next middleweight title challenger. With all that, plus 11 more fights on the docket, let’s dive into the best bets this week.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Plays

Ilia Topuria by Points (+280)

I have a full written break down of the main event out on MMAFighting.com so check that out for a deeper dive, but to me this fight boils down to Topuria has a stylistic advantage, alongside being younger, more physical, and an ascending talent. Holloway certainly has tools to win, but I favor Topuria to get the job done. That being said, Holloway may actually be impossible to finish at this point in his career, and the value between this bet and Topuria straight at -260 is substantial.

Topuria vs. Holloway Over 3.5 Rounds (-126)

Basically the exact same reason as the above bet: I expect this fight will go long. Holloway has been finished once in his entire career, back in his 5th professional fight when he was 20 years old. Topuria, obviously, has never been finished since he’s never lost. More to the point though, even in wins, Holloway has a tendency to go long. Nine of Holloway’s past 10 fights have gone into the fifth round or to a decision. This looks like good value to me.

Khamzat Chimaev by KO/TKO or Submission (-165)

At this point in his career, the question for Chimaev is not “will he win the fight?” it’s “will he show up?” Every time Chimaev steps in the cage, he gets his hand raised, lately it’s been a matter of getting to the cage. But thus far, it appears Chimaev will make the walk on Saturday, which means Whittaker is in trouble.

Robert Whittaker is a future Hall of Famer, but this is a tough fight for him. Chimaev has shown the ability to rag-doll everyone he’s faced, and given the way Dricus du Plessis big-brothered Whittaker, it seems likely that Chimaev will be able to do the same. Simply put, Whittaker is a great fighter, but Chimaev is better and should cement his title shot on Saturday.

Lerone Murphy by Points (-135)

This is Dan Ige’s first fight since heroically stepping in at UFC 303 on four hours’ notice and I’ll be honest, it’s a puzzler. I thought Ige’s willingness to be a company man would’ve earned him a better opportunity but instead he gets Murphy, a guy who is very good and still pretty unknown.

This should be a straightforward Murphy win as he can out-work Ige on the feet and mix in takedowns as necessary. But like with the main event, Dan Ige is incapable of being finished so instead of taking Murphy straight, go for the Decision prop to increase your value.

Parlay

Geoff Neal (-310)

Neal takes on Rafael dos Anjos in the prelims of UFC 308 and he’s among the fighters I’m most confident in to get a win on Saturday. RDA is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s pushing 40 and has never been a true welterweight. Yes, he’s had success at 170 pounds, but dos Anjos is much better at lightweight where his bully tactics are more effective. Now he’s facing Neal who is still in the prime of his career, substantially bigger, and a very good defensive wrestler. Neal should box RDA’s ears.

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-245)

Originally intended to face Nursulton Ruziboev, instead Fakhretdinov now takes on former PFL fighter Carlos Leal, who steps in on short notice. Fakhretdinov should have the run of play in this one as he can compete on the feet and score takedowns nearly at will. Fakhretdinov is just a damn good fighter and Leal is a bit overmatched in this one.

Parlay these two bets together for -116 odds

Long Shot

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway to be Won in the 1st Minute of Round 1 or the Last Minute of the 5th Round (+1800)

We haven’t taken a stab on a long shot in a long time but this Saturday demands it. Holloway now has this insanely cool gimmick of pointing to the ground and slugging it out at the end of fights, to the point that Topuria is calling for them to start the bout like that. And while Holloway does not seem inclined to oblige him, if this thing goes late, you know he will.

And the wonderful folks at FanDuel have you covered with this bet that pays out either way. If Max does meet Ilia in the middle to start and the bout ends quickly, electric. And if this thing goes long, that final stretch will be equally electric.

This bet probably won’t cash, but it’s going to be fun.

Wrap Up

Oof. Tough week over in the PFL as we missed every one of our straight plays. Fortunately, that cannot happen this week as we have no straight plays! Almost every fight this week has pretty long odds so instead of picking straight, we had to opt for a bunch of prop bets instead. Hopefully we picked our spots right.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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No matter what happens with Max Holloway and Robert Whittaker at UFC 308, these former champions are proof you can’t keep a good fighter down.

First, let’s talk about Holloway, the current “BMF” champion and former featherweight champion looking to regain the latter title when he takes on the undefeated Ilia Topuria in Saturday’s main event in Abu Dhabi. Holloway had a brilliant run as champion from 2017 to 2019 before running into rival Alexander Volkanovski, a fellow future Hall of Famer that just so happens to be his perfect foil. Holloway’s inability to get one over on Volkanovski seemed to signal the end of his run as 145’s top dog, but he just kept winning tough fights, putting on spectacular performances, and creating viral moments to the point that he forced his way back into the title conversation.

Now we’ll see if Holloway can cap off one of the most feel-good stories we’ve ever seen.

The stakes aren’t quite as high for Whittaker in the co-main event, but he faces a similar challenge as he takes on a gifted opponent who has never tasted defeat. Whittaker faced his own version of Volkanovski in the form of then-champion Israel Adesanya and future champion Dricus du Plessis, two opponents that relegated Whittaker to contender status. But like Holloway, he’s crawled his way back into spitting distance of a title, and an upset of Chimaev will have fans blowing up Dana White’s socials to give “The Reaper” his due.

Everyone should appreciate what Holloway and Whittaker are attempting to achieve here, because no one would have blamed them if they gave up on their championship dreams when they were at their lowest.

In other main card action, No. 1 light heavyweight contender looks to become, uh, even more the No. 1 contender (?) when he fights Aleksandar Rakic, Lerone Murphy meets Dan Ige in a bout with sneaky featherweight title implications, and the popular Shara Bullet opens the main card against Armen Petrosyan.

What: UFC 308

Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi

When: Saturday, Oct. 26. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the five-fight main card at 2 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Ilia Topuria (1, P4P-4) vs. Max Holloway (3, P4P-T9)

Whether you’re rooting for Max Holloway or not, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can beat Ilia Topuria besides good vibes.

Yes, Topuria beat Alexander Volkanovski and Volkanovski beat Holloway three times, but put aside the MMA math and you’ll see this is a classic case of styles making fights. The “finish fast” mind set Topuria employed against Volkanovski won’t serve him as well against the titanium-chinned Holloway. If Topuria goes too hard in the opening rounds, he could find himself swimming upstream in the championship frames.

It’s on Holloway to make him work though. Holloway’s mixture of high volume and precision will give Topuria headaches, but Topuria’s technical skills are so sharp, he could catch Holloway with some of the same shots that felled Volkanovski. I don’t expect Holloway to go down and stay down, but could Topuria become just the second fighter to knock him down? I see it.

I’m looking past all of the weird side quests Topuria seems determined to talk about and trusting him to be at his best on fight night, because when he’s on, he’s legitimately one of the five best fighters in the world. Topuria can make a huge statement with a convincing win over Holloway and while I don’t expect him to dominate from bell-to-bell, he should come out with a controversy-free decision victory.

Pick: Topuria

Robert Whittaker (4) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (12)

Look, I can’t tell you for sure I didn’t write all those nice things about Robert Whittaker and Max Holloway to soften the blow of me picking against them both. But I’m picking against then both.

Dricus du Plessis wrote the blueprint for bullying Whittaker and as much as Whittaker learned from that loss, I don’t think he he has an answer for the sheer physicality of Khamzat Chimaev. I’ve never hopped off the Chimaev bandwagon, confident in my belief he can beat anyone as long as he makes it to the cage.

As I write this, there’s still plenty of time for Saturday’s co-main event to fall through, but assuming Chimaev makes the walk, I expect his unreal combination of strength, speed, wrestling ability, and raw power to be on full display. We’ll know early if Whittaker is poised to play the spoiler if he can stuff a few Chimaev takedowns and avoid early flurries on the feet. Don’t forget, this is a five-round fight, and if Whittaker takes it past Round 3, Chimaev’s chances of winning decrease exponentially with every passing minute.

So this is a leap of faith of sorts as I’m going with Chimaev to keep his act together and finish Whittaker in the first or second round.

Pick: Chimaev

Magomed Ankalaev (3) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (7)

This is just the ultimate banana peel for Magomed Ankalaev.

Unbeaten in 12 straight fights, Ankalaev is somehow at risk of potentially losing out on what should have been a surefire crack at the light heavyweight title to Aleksandar Rakic, despite Rakic coming off of two straight losses separated by a two-year injury layoff. MMA.

Rakic is a threat, too! He looked sharp in his comeback fight before getting Prochazka’d and if he sticks to the game plan of leg kicks and counter combos, it could be a serious problem for Ankalaev. When Ankalaev fought to a draw with Jan Blachowicz, much of his struggles came as a result of Blachowicz chipping away at his leg for the first three rounds. Then Ankalaev went to his wrestling to turn the fight on its head.

Should he consider focusing on his wrestling to stifle Rakic’s offense? It couldn’t hurt, though the rangy Rakic has shown good takedown defense when he’s had to use it. With only three rounds to work—and more importantly, to impress Dana White—Ankalaev might have to throw caution to the wind and stick to a standup duel.

That won’t be a problem for Ankalaev, a great striker that has strangely been labeled as an unappealing challenger for Pereira despite half of his UFC wins coming by way of knockout. He’ll mix the martial arts to break Rakic’s rhythm if it comes to it, but when it’s time to finish, Ankalaev will let loose with his limbs and take Rakic out.

Pick: Ankalaev

Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige (15)

After several years where he struggled to string together fights, Lerone Murphy is finally in the swing of things and now it’s just a matter of making that brutal climb up the featherweight ladder. Dan Ige is the next logical step, a veteran that has gone the distance with the best of them even if he’s fallen short of proving he’s a top-10 fighter himself.

Murphy showed off an incredible pressure game in his recent win over Edson Barboza, but don’t expect Ige to wilt against the same tactics. “50K” is always in great shape and a hard 15 minutes won’t trouble him in the slightest. I’m guessing we see Murphy mixing up his tactics more, stinging Ige on the feet when he finds an opening and taking him down if the standup exchanges get too hot.

Overall though, I like Murphy to edge out a close striking battle, doing just enough to beat Ige to the punch and prevent him from getting his own offense going. It won’t be easy, but Murphy’s undefeated streak continues.

Pick: Murphy

Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan

Don’t ask me why, I’m expecting so much weirdness in this matchup.

“Shara Bullet” should win this based on his finishing ability and unpredictable movement, but they haven’t given him a layup in Armen Petrosyan. The Russian-Armenian kickboxer specializes in drawn-out, methodical standup fights, which could lead to frustration for Magomedov (and those of us watching at home). Neither fighter has shown an inclination to push the pace, so look forward to long stretches of halfhearted flicks and feints as they work to goad the other man into a mistake.

That said, I can’t shake the thought that this fight will be filled with odd fouls, a restless crowd calling for more action, and maybe even a scoring controversy if we’re lucky. Magomedov brings a huge following with him whenever he steps into the octagon and there’s star potential there, but I remain unconvinced he can impose his will on a fight. Happy to be proven wrong.

Magomedov by decision?

Pick: Magomedov

Ibo Aslan def. Raffael Cerqueira

Rafael dos Anjos def. Geoff Neal (13)

Myktybek Orolbai def. Mateusz Rebecki

Brunno Ferreira def. Abus Magomedov

Chris Barnett def. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Farid Basharat def. Victor Hugo

Ismail Naurdiev def. Bruno Silva

Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Carlos Leal

Victor Hugo grew up watching his father Marcio compete in full-contact fights and began training martial arts at 5 years of age, but quickly dropped jiu-jitsu to focus solely on striking practice. Two decades later, he’s now a UFC fighter looking for his first knockout inside the octagon.

Nicknamed “Striker” for his love of stand-up fighting, Hugo enters the UFC 308 cage to face undefeated Farid Basharat this Saturday in Abu Dhabi and wants to add the 9th knockout to his MMA record. Hugo won his UFC debut with a decision over Pedro Falcao, six months after tapping out Eduardo Torres on Dana White’s Contender Series.

“I’m by far the best fighter he’s ever faced,” Hugo said in an interview with MMA Fighting. “He fought (Taylor Lapilus), a kickboxing champion with no ground game or takedown defense. If we’re talking striking, my nickname says it all. And I don’t even need to talk about my takedown defense. And I’m a black belt on the ground, brother. He’s never fought a black belt before.”

“This is a test for him, not for me,” he continued. “It’s a good fight for me. He has good striking, he’s fast, and he has good cardio, but my takedown defense is ridiculous. He won’t take me down like he has against other opponents. … He’s good, but he’s not a fantastic striker. His kicks are fast but that’s it. He’s never finished anyone, and I’ve knocked out a shitload of people, so there’s a good chance I knock him out as well.”

Hugo said “it’s always been my dream to fight vale tudo since I was a kid” after watching old tapes of Royce Gracie winning the first UFC events and Mirko Cro Cop dropping people left and right inside the PRIDE ring, and it’s special to now find himself standing on the same cage that has once welcomed such legends.

“I was such a big fan of Cro Cop,” Hugo said. “We had no access to information like we have today, so I used to go to [n internet cafe] and burn CDs and DVDs of his fights so I could watch it over and over and over again at home.”

Though Hugo claimed otherwise, Basharat does have stoppage wins on his record, with one knockout and six submissions across a dozen of professional MMA appearances, but the Brazilian isn’t amazed. A pro fighter since 2011, Hugo says “my calm makes others desperate.”

“All that time has gotten me ready for this,” Hugo said. “I see fighting as math. Many people are emotional, but I’m different. He has this single leg takedown? I’ll defend it 50 times in the gym. What are his flaw? Body shots? Ok, I’ll work a lot on my attacks to the body. When you’re calm and collected up there you can see everything your opponent is doing, and that makes them desperate.”

When it comes to Dana White’s continued attempts to paint his UFC departure a certain way, Francis Ngannou is doing his best to take the high road – but he also wants to keep it real.

On Thursday, White was asked to share his thoughts on Ngannou’s performance in his first-round TKO win over Renan Ferreira this past weekend at PFL: Battle of the Giants. The fight marked Ngannou’s return to mixed martial arts for the first time since defending the UFC heavyweight championship in his final promotional appearance against Ciryl Gane in January 2022. One year later, Ngannou left the UFC to sign with the PFL.

Rather than give his take on Ngannou’s in-cage performance, White went out of his way to re-hash how things ended with Ngannou – at least according to him.

“(His performance) was better than Donn Davis’ – way better,” White said with a laugh. “Listen, man, I’m going to tell you what I think about Francis: Francis is all about the money. Francis left because he knew if he fought Jon Jones and didn’t win, it would hurt his chances of making the money he wanted to make. But realistically his deal was bigger here. His deal was bigger here if he stayed in the UFC. I think I told this story a million times. They can deny it all they want. Why the f*ck would I lie? What do I care? It doesn’t matter to me one way or the other.”

White later said that he wanted to release Ngannou in 2018 after consecutive losses to Stipe Miocic and Derrick Lewis, but he didn’t because someone “begged” him not to.

Ngannou responds directly to White

Francis Ngannou and Dana White

Ngannou can’t seem to understand why White won’t stop talking bad about him.

“Regardless of everything that happened, I’m not about him,” Ngannou said Friday in an interview with Sirius XM Fight Nation. “I went out there, did a fight, had a good fight for my son’s memory, but the guy can’t stand – I don’t know what is his problem. He can make everything up as he wants. That’s his problem. I think he needs to make peace with himself. …

“(He) could’ve just said, ‘We didn’t find an agreement. We couldn’t come to a deal, but good luck to him.’ That’s it, you know? Good for him, and we continue our lives. What’s the problem here? I think the problem is he can’t handle this loss.”

And that’s a point Ngannou wants to drive home

“Dana has lost in this situation, and the only thing is that he cannot stand it,” Ngannou said. “Bro, I won everything.”

A big reason why Ngannou couldn’t come to terms with the UFC on a new contract was because the promotion wouldn’t support his desire to venture into boxing. The PFL obliged that request and after signing with the promotion, Ngannou took part in two lucrative fights with Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua in October 2023 and this past March.

While he lost both matchups in the ring, Ngannou widely has been lauded for finding his way out of a restrictive UFC deal and maximizing his earnings. Ngannou can only imagine how much that bothers White.

“I’m sure he’s been praying for my downfall, but I just keep doing my thing, rising,” Ngannou said. “Since I left the UFC, in many senses, I’m more than what I was. …

“Now I have made more money than I would have ever made in the UFC. I would say maybe twice the money that I could have made in my entire UFC career if I had continued in the UFC. I’m not just saying from the moment that I stopped. Either way, if I have made less money, if I’m not making enough money that I could’ve made in the UFC, that would be my problem. Why is he so pissed about me not making that much money? C’mon, man, live your life.”