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Reeves’ net debt rule should not be confined to financial items

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It’s welcome to read reports that chancellor Rachel Reeves’ new fiscal rule will replace the way gross government debt is measured as a proportion of gross domestic product. The new debt concept being mooted is one that nets off from gross debt selected assets on the government balance sheet. This should loosen the government’s fiscal straitjacket (Opinion, October 12).

However, I am alarmed by indications that these assets would be confined to financial balance sheet components.

It would be a grave mistake to exclude saleable land on the government’s balance sheet when netting off from gross debt. Such an exclusion would critically handicap the implementation of better land value capture, strongly signalled in the Labour election manifesto, and have a crucial impact on whether the government is able to achieve its ambitious housebuilding targets.

One precondition for better land value capture is the repeal of the 1961 Land Compensation Act. The other is a new fiscal rule. Public authorities should be able to borrow to buy land at prices below those that would apply to land that had planning permission. After obtaining planning permission, some of this land could be used for building social housing more cheaply than is currently possible. Some would be sold off to private developers and the profit used to fund infrastructure. Overall, with land included in the assets netted off, net government debt would fall, and housebuilding and growth rise, even though gross debt increases.

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Professor John Muellbauer
Nuffield College and Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK

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The English city break with street art tours, 19th century hotels and ‘top-notch’ cuisine

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Bristol has much to offer as a staycation city break

“TRY taking a picture with your phone camera and zoom in,” says our guide as we crowd around a piece of chewing gum stuck on the pavement, squinting to see it better.

Sure enough, when I pinch and stretch the photo on my phone screen, I can make out a kitchen scene, with a tiny kettle and three-point plug.

Bristol has much to offer as a staycation city break

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Bristol has much to offer as a staycation city break
Bristol’s oldest drinking hole, The Hatchet Inn, is a spooky must visit

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Bristol’s oldest drinking hole, The Hatchet Inn, is a spooky must visitCredit: A.Pattenden

By painting on to blobs of trodden gum instead of anything more permanent, artist Ben Wilson keeps within the confines of the law here in Bristol, explains Luke, our guide.

I’m on the Blackbeard to Banksy walking tour, a street-art amble which crams in 1,000 years of history into two hours.

We go from miniature to massive as further along, Bristol’s tallest murals loom down from tower blocks on Nelson Street.

There’s the giant figure of a banker in pin-striped suit and bowler hat, pouring red paint down the side of a tower block and mother and baby, like a modern vision of the Madonna and Child, on the building next to it.

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If you’re wondering how anyone got away with spray painting on this scale well, they didn’t.

These works were created with the council’s blessing as part of a street art festival in 2011.

Today the city’s colourful urban art is celebrated as a star attraction, but the authorities haven’t always seen it that way.

Drinking hole

Before he was quite so famous, Bristolian graffiti artist Banksy went under cover — quite literally — to escape the attention of council workers at their desks in the offices opposite.

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He put up a scaffold and tarpaulin to stencil his 2006 work, Well Hung Lover, on to the side of a building in Frogmore Street.

In a cheeky jibe at the oblivious city officials, it shows a suited man searching out through a window, flanked by his wife, while her naked lover clings to the ledge undetected.

Withernsea Revealed: A Hidden Seaside Treasure in the UK

As well as art, our walking route also takes in historic pubs where pirates like Blackbeard once plotted, including Bristol’s oldest drinking hole, The Hatchet Inn, dating back to the 1600s or earlier.

Gruesome urban legend has it the front door is covered in the skin of hanged criminals underneath the many coats of black paint you see on it today.

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Then, winding our way back towards the present day, we stop by the empty plinth from which Black Lives Matter protesters toppled the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in 2020 before dumping it in the dock.

Now you can find the bronze figure lying ingloriously on its back, still tainted with red paint at M Shed museum (free to visit).

The artistic fun doesn’t end there, though.

I check in to Mercure Bristol Grand Hotel, a Grade-II listed late-19th century building, which is a stunning landmark in its own right, with its beautifully-ornate wrought-iron and stained glass porch.

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Inside, it’s bright and modern with original work by street artists.

Bristol is home to some fantastic street art on display

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Bristol is home to some fantastic street art on display

St Nicholas Market is around the corner and a great place to pick up gifts and grab a bite to eat from one of the enticing food stalls.

Or head to Chez Marcel on Broad Street, a few doors down from the hotel, which serves savoury and sweet crepes.

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The crepe complete (ham, emmental and egg) washed down with a dry Breton cider is just as delicious as any I’ve had in France and all for less than £20.

It’s a city where you can travel the world with your taste buds and sample a different country’s cuisine at every meal.

At Sri Lankan mini-chain Coconut Tree, I try cheap and cheerful small plates including “hoppers” — bowl-shaped pancakes filled with coconut and onion relish.

And at upmarket Indian restaurant Nutmeg in Clifton, I have roast duck in a spiced creamy coconut sauce.

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For cocktails, Cargo Cantina, in a harbour-side shipping container, mixes a mean Mexican margarita and Cafe Cuba in Stokes Croft has mojitos that are bursting with fresh mint.

With top-notch food and drink, pirate pubs and art around every corner, what more could you want from a city break?

Murals by Banksy litter the streets

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Murals by Banksy litter the streetsCredit: Leah Milner
Standard double rooms at the Mercure Bristol Grand are from £103 and buffet breakfast is from £16.50

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Standard double rooms at the Mercure Bristol Grand are from £103 and buffet breakfast is from £16.50Credit: ABACApress/Peter Jackson

GO: Bristol

STAYING THERE: Standard double rooms at the Mercure Bristol Grand are from £103 and buffet breakfast is from £16.50.

See all.accor.com.

OUT & ABOUT: The Blackbeard to Banksy walking tour is £12 for adults and £5 for children aged 12 and under.

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See blackbeard2banksy.com.

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Israel launches retaliatory strike on Iran

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Image supplied by the IDF of The Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, is currently commanding the strike on Iran from the Israeli Air Force underground command center in Camp Rabin (The Kirya) with the Commanding Officer of the Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar.

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Israel launched strikes on Iran in the early hours of Saturday, hitting targets in Tehran, in the latest salvo in an escalating conflict between the regional rivals that has stoked fears of an all-out war in the Middle East.

Israel’s military offered few details about the attacks, other than describing them as “precise” and aimed at “military targets in Iran”.

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“Our defensive and offensive capabilities are fully mobilised,” Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said. “We will do whatever necessary to defend the State of Israel and the people of Israel.”

The semi-official Fars News Agency, which is close to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, reported that “several military sites in western and southwestern Tehran were targeted by Israel.”

Explosions could be heard in the capital and the western city of Karaj, with Iranians on social media describing multiple blasts that rattled the capital.

Saeed Chalanderi, chief executive of Imam Khomeini Airport City Company, said the international airport in Tehran was in a “stable situation” and that there were “no instructions to halt flights”. 

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Image supplied by the IDF of The Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, is currently commanding the strike on Iran from the Israeli Air Force underground command center in Camp Rabin (The Kirya) with the Commanding Officer of the Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar.
Israel’s chief of the general staff, Herzi Halevi, left, at the Israeli Air Force underground command centre in Camp Rabin, along with Major General Tomer Bar © IDF

The US had pressed Israel to avoid striking Iran’s nuclear sites or oil facilities as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government prepared its response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on the Jewish state three weeks ago.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken this week met Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials and reiterated Washington’s calls for a measured response.

The White House was notified of the strikes in advance but did not participate in the attack, a senior US administration official said.

US National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said: “We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defence and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1. ”

Iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles against Israel on October 1 in what it said was a response to the Israeli assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese militant group Hizbollah, in an air strike on Beirut.

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The attack was considered far more severe than a previous Iranian assault on Israel in April that involved hundreds of missiles and drones, but it was clearly telegraphed. That was the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil but did limited damage and most of the projectiles were intercepted.

Israel responded with a missile strike on a military base near the Iranian city of Isfahan, and that tit-for-tat exchange was contained.

But this month’s Iranian barrage happened with little notice and was aimed at multiple targets including an intelligence base just north of Tel Aviv, Israel’s commercial hub, with Israel expected to launch a more robust response than in April.

The escalation comes as Israel is fighting on multiple fronts, with its forces still battling Hamas in Gaza and widening their offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon.

The wave of regional hostilities between Israel and Iran and the militant groups it backs erupted after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack.

The US earlier this month sent an advanced antimissile system, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) battery, to bolster Israel’s air defences ahead of its planned response.

On Thursday US Central Command said multiple F-16 fighter aircraft had arrived in the region, part of US efforts to support Israel should Iran decide to respond.

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Millions more Brits to get £1,000s in extra cash with biggest budget benefits shakeup – find out how to claim

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Millions more Brits to get £1,000s in extra cash with biggest budget benefits shakeup - find out how to claim

AN extra 60,000 carers will be able to claim government cash after changes expected at next week’s Budget.

Rachel Reeves is set to raise the limit people can earn before being ineligible for the carers allowance from £151 a week to £181.

An extra 60,000 carers will be able to claim government cash

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An extra 60,000 carers will be able to claim government cashCredit: Getty
Rachel Reeves is set to raise the limit people can earn

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Rachel Reeves is set to raise the limit people can earnCredit: AFP

The £30 uplift will be the largest increase in the threshold since the benefit was introduced in 1976.

It is the equivalent of 16 hours a week for people on the living wage.

Carers Allowance is an £81.90 weekly bung for people looking after a severely disabled child or adult.

The current earnings cap of £151 a week after income, national insurance and expenses has been criticised as far too low.

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It has seen many selfless carers unknowingly bust the limit and later told to repay large sums of their benefits.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall had launched a review of the overpayments scandal.

Ms Reeves will say the raised earnings cap will reduce the likelihood of carers earning over the maximum.

Helen Walker, Chief Executive of Carers UK, said: “We found 4 in 10 unpaid carers were pushed out of work because of problems with the earnings limit, plunging many into poverty.

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“This new measure will help many more unpaid carers up and down the country to stay in paid work, putting much needed finances into families’ pockets.”

It comes as households on carer’s allowance continue to face substantial repayment demands after exceeding a critical weekly earnings limit.

DWP Benefits – Do The Right Thing

Figures in August revealed that over 134,500 unpaid carers are collectively repaying £251million in benefit overpayments.

The Sun has previously highlighted cases where some individuals were required to repay up to £20,000 after unknowingly breaching carer’s allowance rules.

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In an effort to reform the system and prevent more people from being caught out, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has initiated an independent review on the matter.

In response to the overwhelming number of repayment demands issued to claimants, the DWP’s independent review, in collaboration with the former chief executive of Disability Rights UK, aims to investigate the causes and mechanisms behind the overpayments.

It will then recommend “operational changes” to minimise the risk of future overpayments and outline how the DWP can best support those affected by overpayment issues.

What is carer’s allowance?

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CARER’S allowance is a UK benefit designed to help people who have caring responsibilities for more than 35 hours each week.

Those eligible get £81.90 a week paid directly into bank accounts.

To qualify, the person you care for must already get one of these benefits:

  • Personal independence payment (PIP) – daily living component
  • Disability living allowance – the middle or highest care rate
  • Attendance allowance
  • Constant attendance allowance at or above the normal maximum rate with an Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit
  • Constant attendance allowance at the basic (full day) rate with a war disablement pension
  • Armed forces independence payment

You don’t have to be related to the person or live with them to apply.

But if you share caring responsibilities with someone else, only one of you can make a claim.

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The type of care you provide can vary, but includes things such as helping with washing or cooking, taking the person to medical appointments or helping out with household tasks such as shopping or organising bills.

To get the benefit, you must also meet a certain set of criteria:

  • You must be 16 or over
  • You have to spend at least 35 hours a week caring for someone
  • You need to have been in England, Scotland or Wales for at least two of the last three years (this does not apply if you’re a refugee or have humanitarian protection status)
  • You must normally live in England, Scotland or Wales or live abroad as a member of the armed forces (you might still be eligible if you’re moving to or already living in an EEA country or Switzerland)
  • You cannot be in full-time education
  • You must not be studying for 21 hours a week or more
  • You cannot be subject to immigration control
  • You will also have to meet certain earnings criteria in order to get the benefit.

Your earnings must also be £151 or less a week after tax, National Insurance and expenses.

You can apply for the carer’s allowance online by visiting www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/how-to-claim.

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Rachel Reeves seeks to reassure business ahead of Budget tax rises

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UK chancellor Rachel Reeves will seek to reassure business that big tax rises planned for next week’s Budget will not set the pattern for the rest of the parliament, as allies insist the levies will be a “one and done” hit.

Government insiders confirm that an increase in national insurance paid by employers will play a major part in Reeves’ bid to fill what the government says is a £40bn gap in the public finances.

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In an effort to provide “tax certainty” for the rest of the government’s term, Reeves will set out a “corporate tax road map” alongside Wednesday’s Budget.

Officials say this will include a cap on corporation tax at 25 per cent for the rest of the parliament — a Labour manifesto commitment — and a new system of “advance clearance” for investors on tax rules for big projects.

One official said the package of tax increases would be a “one and done” operation. An ally of Reeves said the chancellor wanted to “wipe the slate clean” and give business the clarity to plan for the future.

But a policy adviser at a large business lobby group said they had been given no assurance the government would not increase taxes in future Budgets: “They have not said anything about future fiscal events.” 

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Reeves could raise about £17bn from a 2 percentage point rise in employer national insurance contributions, according to HM Revenue & Customs’ “ready reckoner”.

The possible alternative of imposing NICs on employers’ pension contributions at a flat 13.8 per cent rate would raise up to £18bn a year by the end of the decade, according to the Resolution Foundation.

But this route is less favoured by Reeves’ allies. Lord David Blunkett, a former Labour minister, warned on Friday that it could lead to employers cutting pension contributions.

Under either scenario Reeves would be expected to reimburse public sector employers.

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Other tax increases are planned for private equity executives and the wealthy foreign residents who have benefited from the non-dom regime that spares them from UK tax on overseas income. Capital gains tax rates are expected to rise on share sales, and inheritance loopholes used by the rich will be closed.

Next week’s road map is not expected to contain any commitments on further changes to CGT or business rates, which will disappoint some business groups.

The Budget is also set to raise funds through freezing personal income tax thresholds for longer, even though Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has promised to spare “working people” from higher taxes.

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The Labour government says it needs to increase taxes to right the public finances and step up investment in infrastructure and public services.

Government insiders added that Reeves’ road map would retain the “full expensing” capital allowance regime introduced by Rishi Sunak’s Conservative administration, which seeks to provide tax breaks for investments that improve productivity.

The current system of tax credits for research and development will be maintained.

Reeves will also announce plans for a new unit within HMRC to provide investors with “advance clearance” — or help in understanding how they would be taxed on future big projects. 

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One government official said the unit would give “greater certainty over existing tax rules” but ruled out preferential tax treatment for large investors. 

A senior business lobbyist said the unit could help push some big investments over the line, since “the UK tax system is seen as increasingly complicated and difficult to navigate”.

While cautioning that the move was not a “game-changer”, the lobbyist said: “Adding certainty and clarity can only be a good thing.”

A tax partner at a Big Four accounting firm said the move would make the UK more attractive to investors, since HMRC had become “quite litigious” with big companies including in some cases where they had followed the tax authority’s guidance.  

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While the UK gives multinationals advance clearance in limited areas such as transfer pricing, it gives less reassurance than countries such as Australia, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. 

Reeves is set to hold consultations on the design and scope of the new service early next year. 

David Gauke, a former Tory Treasury minister who oversaw business tax road maps in 2010 and 2016, said the exercise was particularly useful for large corporates making big long-term investment decisions.

“What’s really important is not what you promise to do, but what you promise not to do,” he said. “And of course it’s only worthwhile if you stick to your promises.”

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Five money-saving bottomless meal deals to cut costs when eating out

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Five money-saving bottomless meal deals to cut costs when eating out

FEELING ravenous? Then tuck in to a money-saving bottomless meal deal.

For breakfast, lunch and dinner, find an all-you-can eat offer.

Weekday buffets start at just £10.99 for adults and £7.99 for kids at Pizza Hut

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Weekday buffets start at just £10.99 for adults and £7.99 for kids at Pizza HutCredit: Getty

But choose wisely. Many apply a 90-minute limit, and you need to be realistic about how much you want to eat.

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Here’s our pick of the deals that give you more for your money.

SLICE THE PRICE: Pizza Hut’s buffet lunches will save you a crust.

Weekday buffets start at just £10.99 for adults and £7.99 for kids, with unlimited salad.

READ MORE MONEY SAVING IDEAS

You can currently get the deal for £10 with the code 10BUFFET. On weekends and bank holidays, the unlimited deal is £15.99 for adults and from £7.99 for kids.

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FLAT RATE: Love pancakes? Head to Bill’s between 3pm and 5pm each day to eat as many as you like in 90 minutes for £9.50.

For an extra sweetener, mark your diary for November 8 when the buttermilk beauties are £5 all day, with two flavours to choose from — chocolate and ice cream or fresh fruit with syrup.

SALAD DAYS: At Harvester you can pile your plate from the unlimited salad bar.

Just buy a dish worth at least £6.99 to get your pick from the pasta salad, coleslaw, sweetcorn and lettuce, as well as dressings and toppings.

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Woman reveals the ‘best’ hotel buffet breakfast in the UK – but everyone is saying the same thing

It’s a great way to enjoy an extra treat without feeling too full.

BREKKIE BARGAINS: It isn’t just about the roasts at Toby Carvey. Head there for breakfast — you can tuck into an all-you-can-eat feast for £6.99 or £7.49 at weekends.

Just pick up the items you want from the buffet.

There are vegetarian and kids’ options too, all served until 11am.

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WING IT: Sign up to the TGI Fridays rewards app to be able to get an endless supply of chicken wings — or a vegetarian version.

The offer is available all week and you can have your plate refilled as many times as you like during a 90-minute dine-in for £15.

  • All prices on page correct at time of going to press. Deals and offers subject to availability.

Deal of day

Save a huge £65 on this rose Cuisinart multi-temp kettle

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Save a huge £65 on this rose Cuisinart multi-temp kettleCredit: Supplied

MAKE the perfect brew with the rose Cuisinart multi-temp kettle, down from £100 to £35 at Cuisinart.co.uk.

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SAVE: £65

Cheap treat

The Autumn Friends duvet set from Dunelm is now only £8.40

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The Autumn Friends duvet set from Dunelm is now only £8.40Credit: Supplied

SNUGGLE in the Autumn Friends duvet set from Dunelm, down from £12 to £8.40 for a double

SAVE: £3.60

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WHAT’S NEW

CLEAN up with a Scrub Daddy bundle at B&M.

The £9.99 Dish Daddy offer features a set of kitchen scrubbers, plus 20p from every sale goes to the Pink Ribbon Foundation to support those aff­ected by breast cancer.

Top swap

This plush velvet Charlotte chair is £139.50 from Matalan

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This plush velvet Charlotte chair is £139.50 from MatalanCredit: Supplied
Or rest easy on the Homcom tufted wingback option

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Or rest easy on the Homcom tufted wingback optionCredit: Supplied

SIT back on this plush velvet Charlotte chair, which is £139.50 from Matalan.

Or rest easy on the Homcom tufted wingback option, £81.99 at Robert Dyas.

SAVE: £57.51

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Shop & save

This Lego Classic medium brick box features 484 pieces

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This Lego Classic medium brick box features 484 piecesCredit: Supplied

BUILD big with the Lego Classic medium brick box, featuring 484 pieces. It’s £18.75 down from £25 at Sainsbury’s.

SAVE: £6.25

LITTLE HELPER

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GET the family out to Ask Italian and enjoy kids’ meals for just £1 when ordering any adult main, until November 5.

Complete the form at askitalian.co.uk, to get a code via email.

Hot right now

GET an extra 20 per cent off book box sets at The Works. The offer takes a box of five Worst Witch books down from £12 to £9.60.

PLAY NOW TO WIN £200

Join thousands of readers taking part in The Sun Raffle

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Join thousands of readers taking part in The Sun Raffle

JOIN thousands of readers taking part in The Sun Raffle.

Every month we’re giving away £100 to 250 lucky readers – whether you’re saving up or just in need of some extra cash, The Sun could have you covered.

Every Sun Savers code entered equals one Raffle ticket.

The more codes you enter, the more tickets you’ll earn and the more chance you will have of winning!

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senior voters set to dominate snap poll

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At 6am on the dot on Thursday, a 16-strong group of local residents began their daily callisthenics alongside a baseball field in central Tokyo.

The youngest was 72, the oldest in her late 80s, members of a generation that will wield outsized electoral influence thanks to demographics and political apathy as the world’s oldest nation prepares to go the polls on Sunday in a snap election.

It is a position of power with which they are not entirely comfortable, ahead of a vote that could loosen the grip on government of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic party and its new leader Shigeru Ishiba.

“It’s a shame. The younger people have the most to lose but they don’t seem to vote so much any more, do they?” said one, who gave her family name as Nemoto and her age at “around 80”. “They either don’t think they can change anything, or they have given up.”

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“It ends up being old people like us who decide everything,” Nemoto said, adding that she would not be voting for the LDP, which the party that has controlled Japan for most of the past seven decades.

Both Nemoto’s age and her rising distrust of the LDP reflect critical factors, according to political analysts, in a potentially explosive election for the lower house of parliament that was called by Ishiba after he was elevated to prime minister earlier this month.

More than 40 per cent of the electorate is aged 60 or over, a globally unprecedented concentration of political power among people at or near retirement age.

They appear poised to disrupt the political stability that has characterised the country’s politics for more than a decade, as the LDP battles record low popularity in the wake of a political funding scandal and surging inflation that follows decades of low or no price growth.

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Recent electoral history suggests older voters are much more committed than their younger counterparts. Turnout rates among over-60s average around 64 per cent, against an average 47 per cent for everyone younger. For the past three elections, among Japanese in their 20s, it has never risen above 37 per cent.

Part of the problem, said analysts, was that younger voters do not see themselves represented in the field of candidates. A recent Nikkei analysis found that among those standing in Sunday’s poll, only 11.6 per cent were under the age of 40 and just 23.4 per cent were women.

Momoko Nojo, director of the No Youth No Japan movement to promote young people’s interests in politics, warned that progress in raising the youth participation rate had been slow and that in its absence, bad policymaking would result.

“Young people decreasingly see politics as the mechanism for solving social problems,” she said.

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Mare Yotsukura, a 20-year-old undecided voter and aspiring illustrator studying at Meiji University, agreed. “If a turning point doesn’t come and only the interests of the elderly are met, then we will just continue towards economic decay and political apathy,” he said. “We need generational change.”

people hold up phones at a campaign rally
Voter disillusionment with Ishiba has left his cabinet approval at near-record lows © Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters
mature ladies at a campaign event
Over-65s’ fixed incomes make them more vulnerable to rising living costs © Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters

But many voters have become disillusioned with Ishiba, who emerged from a nine-way leadership contest with a cabinet approval rating of just 28 per cent, one of the lowest ever.

“Ishiba went into this with an image of being a man of integrity and resolution,” said Jeff Kingston, a political scientist at Temple University. But the brash candidate who had called for an “Asian Nato” and boosting Japan’s underpopulated rural regions is now seen as a continuation of the status quo, having capitulated on a series of issues since taking office.

“People are realising that is not the Ishiba they have got”, Kingston said.

Analysts have warned that the LDP, whose image was already battered by the slush fund scandal, could lose its majority in the 465-seat lower house. Some opinion polls suggest the LDP’s coalition with its smaller ally Komeito could also lose the combined “absolute stable majority” of 261 seats or above that allows it to dominate parliamentary committees.

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Some analysts say the LDP could be forced to seek additional partners among the smaller opposition parties after the election.

“We expected some form of punishment for the LDP in this election, but it now looks more seriously like they could lose their majority,” Kingston said.

Ordinary Japanese are also wrestling with rising consumer prices and a weak yen, which have conspired to counteract recent wage increases that, while large by historic standards, were not enough to make families feel wealthier. This has sharpened disgruntlement of the over-65s, whose fixed incomes make them more vulnerable to rising food and living costs.

Ishiba had aimed to use a sudden snap election to catch the opposition, led by the Constitutional Democratic party of Japan of former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, unprepared. With little time to co-ordinate during a two-week campaign, the opposition was unable to form electoral alliances and tactically run non-LDP candidates in each constituency. 

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But even without that strategising, said political analysts, the election has not produced a sprawling field in many constituencies. Nemoto and her friends, for example, were running through their morning exercises in a borough with only three choices of non-LDP candidates.

“It’s a poor choice this time,” she said. “I really do not see much that is attractive about the CDPJ and its policies don’t seem very different from the LDP, but we need some sign of change in politics so I will have to vote for one of the other non-LDP parties.”

Her decision, if replicated across the vast bloc of over-65 voters, will force the LDP to rely on younger voters. Eri Hiragata, a 21-year-old finance student, is in the minority of young people who plans to vote, and will do so begrudgingly for the LDP.

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“It’s the LDP by process of elimination,” she said. “It would be even worse if we left it to any of the other parties.”

Data visualisation by Haohsiang Ko

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