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Bitcoin ETF Balances Shrink by 100,000 BTC: Here’s Why

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US Spot ETF Balances Show Largest Drawdown of Cycle

According to data from Glassnode, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded their largest balance drawdown of the current market cycle following the early October all-time high.

Nonetheless, despite the recent outflows, the broader ETF picture still remains constructive.

Bitcoin ETFs See Deepest Cycle Pullback as Balances Fall to 1.26 Million BTC 

Glassnode data shows that since October, US spot Bitcoin ETF balances have declined by roughly 100,300 BTC. At press time, total holdings stood at approximately 1.26 million BTC.

The contraction reflects sustained net outflows, as investors have withdrawn capital from spot ETFs, leading funds to reduce holdings. According to SoSoValue, $1.6 billion was pulled from these products in January alone, extending a streak of monthly outflows that began in November 2025.

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US Spot ETF Balances Show Largest Drawdown of Cycle
US Spot ETF Balances Show Largest Drawdown of Cycle. Source: Glassnode

The decline in ETF balances has unfolded alongside a broader market downturn. Bitcoin has trended lower since reaching its record high of $126,000 in October. The weakness has spilled into 2026, fueling elevated fear and uncertainty across the market.

Although spot ETFs were widely seen as a structural catalyst during Bitcoin’s rally, experts suggest the same mechanism may have intensified downside pressure during periods of redemptions. In early February, Arthur Hayes argued that institutional dealer hedging activity is amplifying downward pressure on BTC prices.

“Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment,” Glassnode added.

The strain extends beyond ETF outflows and into mounting unrealized losses. According to Glassnode, the average entry price for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors stands at approximately $83,980 per BTC. 

With Bitcoin trading at $67,349 at the time of writing, this cohort is currently sitting on paper losses of roughly 20%.

Bitcoin Average Cost Basis of US Spot ETF Deposits
Bitcoin Average Cost Basis of US Spot ETF Deposits. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, the outflows are not isolated to Bitcoin. BeInCrypto reported $173 million exited digital asset funds last week. This marked the fourth consecutive week of redemptions, totaling $3.7 billion for the period.

Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows Still at $53 Billion Despite Recent Outflows 

Despite the pessimism, some analysts continue to emphasize the longer-term picture. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs still stand at roughly $53 billion, down from a peak of over $63 billion in October 2025, even after recent outflows.

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“Our (more bullish than most of our peers) prediction was $5-15b in first year. This is imp context to consider when looking/writing about the $8b in outflows since 45% decline and/or the relationship bt btc and Wall street, which has been overwhelmingly positive,” he added.

Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Net Flows Peaked at $63 Billion Before Falling to $53 Billion
Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Net Flows Peaked at $63 Billion Before Falling to $53 Billion. Source: X/Eric Balchunas

Taken together, the data suggest the current retracement reflects cyclical risk reduction rather than a structural reversal. ETF flows have amplified both upside and downside moves, embedding Bitcoin more deeply into traditional capital markets dynamics.

While short-term pressure may persist amid broader macro uncertainty, the scale and speed of institutional adoption since launch indicate that Bitcoin’s integration into Wall Street portfolios remains intact.

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How Bitcoin Hashrate Recovery Mirrors 2021 Rebound Pattern

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Bitcoin Hashrate. Source: CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin’s hashrate — a key metric that measures the network’s total computational power — recorded a sharp V-shaped recovery in February.

This sudden turnaround has raised hopes that Bitcoin may end its five-month losing streak and make a strong recovery.

Hashrate–Price Correlation Points to a Potential Upside Scenario

A previous report by BeInCrypto noted that Bitcoin’s hashrate suffered a major shock in early 2026. An extreme Arctic cold wave swept across the United States.

Freezing temperatures, heavy snowfall, and surging heating demand strained the national power grid. Authorities issued energy-saving requests, and several regions experienced localized blackouts.

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As a result, the network’s hashrate dropped by roughly 30%. Around 1.3 million mining machines went offline, slowing block production.

By February, however, data showed a swift turnaround. Hashrate rebounded from below 850 EH/s to over 1 ZH/s, recovering nearly all of the previous large downward adjustment.

Bitcoin Hashrate. Source: CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin Hashrate. Source: CryptoQuant.

“Bitcoin mining just got ~15% harder, with the largest ever increase in absolute difficulty, completely erasing last epoch’s huge downwards adjustment,” commented Mononaut, a developer at Mempool.

Despite the recovery in hashrate, Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate below $70,000 and has not mirrored the same strength. According to the market analytics platform Hedgeye, the cost to mine one Bitcoin in February is approximately $84,000. This suggests that many miners are still operating at a loss.

The rise in hashrate reflects the return of computational capacity. Miners have powered machines back on and appear more optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term profitability.

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Historical data shows that V-shaped recoveries in hashrate often coincide with strong price rebounds.

Bitcoin Hashrate vs. Price. Source: Blockchain.com
Bitcoin Hashrate vs. Price. Source: Blockchain.com

A notable example occurred in mid-2021. After China imposed a sweeping ban on Bitcoin mining, hashrate plunged by more than 50%, falling from 166 EH/s to 95 EH/s in July. Months later, a V-shaped recovery in hashrate paralleled a powerful price rebound. Bitcoin surged from around $30,000 to above $60,000 by the end of the year.

“Bitcoin network hashrate has sharply recovered after the recent dip, a strong signal that miner confidence remains intact and they are coming back online. Historically, hashrate is a leading indicator during recoveries. Price tends to follow hashrate,” said Satoxis, a Bitcoin OG.

Data from CryptoQuant on Bitcoin Miner Outflow further supports the view that miners expect a price recovery. The 7-day average outflow from miner wallets has fallen to its lowest level since May 2023.

Bitcoin Miner Outflow. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Miner Outflow. Source: CryptoQuant

This trend indicates that miners are no longer aggressively selling their holdings. Instead, they appear to be holding in anticipation of a potential rebound.

Additional analysis from BeInCrypto emphasizes that any sustained recovery at this stage requires confirmation through a breakout above $71,693.

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Voltage Unveils USD Credit Line Over Bitcoin Rails

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$1M Lightning Payment Tests Bitcoin’s Institutional Rails

Bitcoin infrastructure company Voltage has announced the launch of Voltage Credit, a programmatic revolving line of credit designed to let businesses send payments with Lightning-style instant finality while still repaying the credit line in US dollars from a standard bank account or in Bitcoin.

In a Thursday release shared with Cointelegraph, the company, which provides enterprise-grade solutions for regulated businesses, said it was targeting chief financial officers and treasurers who wanted “send now, pay later” flexibility on the fastest payment rails available, without having to hold crypto on their balance sheet.

Rather than positioning it as just another Lightning-backed loan, Voltage pitched the product as an embedded piece of the payment flow, and the “first revolving line of credit that delivers instant payment finality and the capability to settle entirely in USD.”

CEO Graham Krizek told Cointelegraph that while players like Stripe and Block blended faster payments with working capital, they didn’t embed a revolving credit facility directly into Lightning payments in the way Voltage does, adding that Stripe did not support Lightning at all.

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Related: Stripe-owned Bridge gets OCC conditional approval for national bank charter

In the Block model, he said, Lightning and credit remain separate workflows, whereas Voltage lets businesses originate credit and immediately use it to send or receive Lightning and stablecoin payments in real time, without pre-funding or manual treasury movements.

Underwriting against payment flows, not static BTC collateral

Voltage said it departs from traditional crypto lending by underwriting against payment flows rather than static Bitcoin (BTC) collateral. 

Because Voltage already powers the underlying Bitcoin and Lightning infrastructure, it can size and adjust credit limits based on the volume a business processes through its platform. 

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“Voltage Credit is the lender of record in our platform,” Krizek said, noting that the company originated all loans itself and was not relying on a bank, card network or third-party fintech to fund the lines.

Krizek said the platform carries a 12% annual percentage yield (APY) that accrues daily on outstanding balances, with a flat platform fee design intended to avoid transaction-based pricing that gets more expensive as volumes scale. 

Related: Inside the Swiss city where you can pay for almost everything in Bitcoin

He said that revolving lines of credit themselves are not new, but what is new is bringing that “familiar financial construct” into an environment where Bitcoin and Lightning move money instantly and globally.

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“We are effectively modernizing the revolving credit model so it operates at internet speed, rather than at the pace of legacy banking and card networks,” he said.

From $1 million pilot to institutional Lightning rails

The launch builds on Voltage’s recent role supporting a $1 million Lightning Network payment between Secure Digital Markets and Kraken on Feb. 5, a pilot that was framed as the biggest publicly reported transaction on the network. 

Krizek said that episode was meant to test Lightning’s suitability for institutional-sized flows and that the network “is capable of handling massive payment volumes and is ready for institutional-scale use.”

$1 million in a single Lightning transaction. Source: SDM

Voltage Credit is initially available to qualified US‑headquartered businesses, Krizek said, saying the company can currently serve all US states except California, Nevada, North Dakota, Vermont and Washington, D.C., as a registered commercial lender. 

Early traction, he added, has come from exchanges, Bitcoin miners, gaming platforms and payment processors looking to reduce idle working capital, avoid forced BTC liquidations and bridge Bitcoin‑denominated revenue with US dollar‑denominated expenses without relying on unpredictable off‑ramps.

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The Lightning Network reached an all-time capacity high in December 2025 of 5,606 BTC amid increased adoption from major crypto exchanges and functionality improvements. Demand has stalled somewhat since then, falling to 5,121 BTC as of Monday.

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