ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, HYPE sit near key levels after a choppy week of failed breakouts and fragile supports.

Ethereum (ETH) traded relatively flat over the period, with buyers maintaining key support levels as selling momentum decreased, according to technical analysts. The cryptocurrency faces resistance at higher price points, and analysts noted that recent weekly losses could precede a relief rally testing those resistance levels. Technical indicators suggest Ethereum may be completing a second downward movement in an ABC correction pattern.

Ripple closed the week with slight gains, though the advance proved insufficient to reverse bearish chart patterns. An attempt to break through resistance was rejected by sellers, a signal that the downtrend may persist, according to market observers. Analysts indicated that continued selling momentum could drive prices to lower support levels, with price reactions at nearby support expected to provide direction signals.

Cardano remained near key support levels but showed signs of weakness that could result in a breach of that level, according to technical analysis. The cryptocurrency’s price action reflected patterns similar to Ripple, with bearish momentum persisting as buyers and sellers contest support levels. Cardano has underperformed during the current year, with analysts noting that sustained gains would require reclaiming materially higher price levels.

Binance Coin (BNB) held near support levels over the past week, with selling pressure appearing to ease, though analysts cautioned the selloff may not be complete. Higher resistance levels remained untested, indicating buyer hesitation despite substantially decreased selling volume. Technical analysts stated that maintaining current support could encourage buyers to challenge resistance levels, while renewed selling pressure could push prices to lower support zones.

Hype (HYPE) closed the week lower following rejection at resistance levels. Buyers remained defensive, with analysts projecting potential further declines to key support. A loss of that support level would constitute an extremely bearish signal and could result in new yearly lows, according to market observers. Conversely, holding that level could be interpreted as a higher low formation, potentially encouraging buyer re-entry. Analysts characterized the cryptocurrency as being in a pullback phase that may extend for an indeterminate period.

Ethereum (ETH) is holding below $2,000, leaving many investors underwater as the downtrend extends into February 2026.

Despite the sustained weakness, BitMine has maintained a bullish stance on Ethereum. This raises a key question: Is their confidence driven by narrative or sentiment, or is there another factor behind their conviction?

Ethereum’s Pain Reaches 9th Decile: What Does That Mean For The Price?

In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), BitMine highlighted the research by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, focusing on Ethereum’s realized price. This is an on-chain valuation metric that reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins currently in circulation.

According to the data, Ethereum’s realized price stands at $2,241. At the time of the analysis, the asset was trading near $1,934. 

This leaves the average holder in the red. According to Fundstrat’s model, the “loss for realized price was 22%.”

The analysis compared the current drawdown to prior cycle lows. During the 2022 bear market, Ethereum traded as much as 39% below its realized price. In 2025, the discount reached approximately 21%. 

“If we apply this ‘loss’ to the current realized ETH price of $2,241, we get implied ‘lows’ for ETH. Using 2022, this implies $1,367. Using 2025, this implies $1,770,” the analysis noted.

Using a decile analysis, the post revealed that the current drawdown falls into the 9th decile (extremely high). For context, a decile analysis is a quantitative method used in statistics, finance, and marketing to segment a dataset into 10 equal-sized groups (deciles) based on the distribution of a specific variable.

The data suggests that the median 12-month forward return in this decile was approximately 81%, with a 12-month win ratio of 87%. In other words, in most historical instances when ETH reached similar drawdown levels, it was trading higher one year later.

“Is this the bottom? Seems like we are closing in on that low. Looking beyond the near-term, the risk/reward for ETH is positive,” the post read.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee previously emphasized that sharp drawdowns are a recurring feature of Ethereum’s price history. Since 2018, ETH has experienced eight separate declines of 50% or more from local highs, suggesting that corrections of this magnitude have occurred roughly once per year.

In 2025, Ethereum fell 64% between January and March. Despite that steep drop, the asset later rebounded significantly.

“ETH sees V-shaped recoveries from major lows. This happened in each of the 8 prior declines of 50% or more. A similar recovery is expected in 2026. The best investment opportunities in crypto have presented themselves after declines. Think back to 2025, the single best entry points in crypto occurred after markets fell sharply due to tariff concerns,” Lee said.

Ethereum Recovery Could Be Critical for BitMine’s $7 Billion Underwater Position

If Ethereum delivers a sustained recovery with strong upside returns, it could represent a meaningful inflection point for investors, particularly BitMine. The company’s unrealized losses have expanded to approximately $7 billion, according to CryptoQuant data.

At the same time, BitMine appears to be reinforcing its bullish stance through continued accumulation. Lookonchain reported that the firm purchased 10,000 ETH from Kraken today.

This transaction followed a much larger single-day acquisition of 35,000 ETH. BitMine acquired 20,000 ETH from BitGo and 15,000 ETH from FalconX.

Taken together, the purchases suggest that despite mounting unrealized losses, BitMine is positioning for a potential upside scenario rather than reducing exposure.

Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR), a Singapore-based operator of data centers and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining infrastructure, unveiled a private placement of US$300 million in convertible senior notes, with an option for purchasers to subscribe to an additional US$45 million. The offering marks Bitdeer’s second convertible debt sale since a US$150 million issue in April 2024, a move that coincided with a notable decline in the stock price at the time. The notes are scheduled to mature in 2032, carry semiannual interest payments, and can be converted into cash, shares, or a combination of both. Proceeds are earmarked for data-center expansion, AI cloud growth, the development of mining rigs, and general corporate purposes. Bitdeer operates globally, with data centers in the United States, Norway, and Bhutan, while maintaining its headquarters in Singapore.

Key takeaways

• The company is offering US$300 million in convertible senior notes, with a potential additional US$45 million via private placement.
• These notes mature in 2032, are senior unsecured, and pay semiannual interest; holders may convert to cash, stock, or a mix.
• The funds will support data-center expansion, AI cloud initiatives, mining-rig development, and general corporate purposes.
• This is Bitdeer’s second convertible-note sale, following a US$150 million offering in April 2024 that coincided with a roughly 18% drop in the stock at the time.
• To offset potential dilution, the deal includes capped-call transactions and a concurrent registered direct share offering aimed at repurchasing notes due in 2029.
• Traders punished Bitdeer shares on the news, with the stock down about 17% on the session before closing near the year’s lows.

Tickers mentioned: $BTDR, $BTC

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. Bitdeer’s stock fell roughly 17% on the news, underscoring dilution concerns and investor sensitivity to capital-structure changes.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The combination of convertible issuance and dilution-offset mechanisms warrants caution, even as the proceeds underpin ambitious expansion plans.

Market context: The transaction reflects a broader pattern among crypto miners financing growth with convertible debt, a structure that can dilute equity if notes convert and that often arrives with offsetting strategies to manage equity dilution.

Why it matters

The planned private placement of convertible notes signals Bitdeer’s continued appetite for aggressive expansion in a capital-intensive sector. By targeting data-center capacity and AI cloud services alongside mining-rig development, the company is positioning itself to scale its infrastructure footprint in multiple jurisdictions. The convertible structure offers investors upside if the stock appreciates, while providing downside protection through bond characteristics. However, the potential for future dilution remains a live concern for existing shareholders, especially if the notes are converted as Bitdeer’s equity price strengthens.

From a corporate-finance perspective, the use of convertible debt aligns with investor demand for instruments that balance debt-like safety with equity-like upside. The inclusion of capped-call transactions is designed to mitigate dilution, but it does not eliminate the fundamental trade-off between raising capital and preserving share value. The concurrent share offering intended to repurchase notes due in 2029 adds another layer of capital-management activity, signaling a deliberate attempt to optimize the capital stack while pursuing growth objectives.

For market participants, the development underscores how mining-focused operators are navigating a landscape where capital-structure decisions can materially impact stock performance. As miners race to expand capacity and enter adjacent growth areas like AI cloud services, financing decisions—particularly those involving convertibles—will continue to draw scrutiny from investors who weigh dilution risk against potential long-term value creation. The broader environment for crypto equities remains sensitive to macro signals, sector volatility, and regulatory developments, making the next steps for Bitdeer—such as the final terms of the private placement and the effectiveness of dilution-offset strategies—worth watching closely.

What to watch next

• Closing terms and timing of the US$300 million convertible note offering, including whether the additional US$45 million private placement is exercised.
• Results and milestones tied to data-center expansion and AI cloud initiatives, including capacity additions and any operational KPIs.
• Details of the capped-call transactions and how they are structured to offset dilution, along with the timing and terms of the concurrent registered direct share offering to repurchase 2029 notes.
• Any further commentary from Bitdeer on its use of proceeds and how debt financing affects its capital-structure strategy amid ongoing market volatility for crypto equities.

Sources & verification

• Bitdeer announces proposed private placement of US$300 million convertible notes. https://ir.bitdeer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bitdeer-announces-proposed-private-placement-us3000-million-0
• Strategy to equitize convertible debt over next 3-6 years: Saylor. https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/strategy-plans-equitize-convertible-debt-over-next-3-6-years-saylor
• What are convertible senior notes? How MicroStrategy uses them to buy Bitcoin. https://cointelegraph.com/explained/what-are-convertible-senior-notes-how-microstrategy-uses-them-to-buy-bitcoin
• Bitdeer Ohio mining facility fire stock coverage. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitdeer-ohio-mining-facility-fire-stock
• Bitdeer 150m notes offering expansion stock drop. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitdeer-150m-notes-offering-expansion-stock-drop

Debt financing and expansion goals drive Bitdeer’s latest convertible note offering

Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR), a Singapore-based operator of data centers and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining infrastructure, has unveiled a private placement of US$300 million in convertible senior notes, with a potential extension of up to US$45 million via a private placement. The move marks Bitdeer’s second foray into convertible debt after a US$150 million offering in April 2024, an issue that coincided with a sharp retreat in the company’s share price. The newly proposed notes carry a maturity date in 2032, and they are described as senior unsecured obligations with semiannual interest payments. In a convertible arrangement, investors can choose to convert their holds into cash, shares, or a combination of both, depending on the terms at issue and market conditions at the time of conversion.

The use of convertible notes taps into a common financing channel for crypto miners seeking to fund rapid capacity expansion without immediately diluting equity. Bitdeer’s stated use of proceeds—data-center expansion, AI cloud growth, mining-rig development, and general corporate purposes—highlights a strategy focused on bolstering both scale and diversification beyond strictly mining revenues. The company’s operations span multiple geographies, with data centers in the United States, Norway, and Bhutan, underscoring the geographic footprint often required to manage energy costs, regulatory considerations, and resilience in a capital-intensive industry.

The market’s reaction to the announcement was swift. Bitdeer’s stock moved lower on the news, underscoring investor anxiety around potential dilution and the timing of a sizable capital raise. The announcement also references the company’s earlier convertible-note activity; the April 2024 US$150 million offering previously produced an 18% slide in the share price, illustrating how these structures can be priced into equity performance even when the underlying business objectives are growth-oriented. To partially counteract dilution, Bitdeer plans to employ capped call transactions as part of the convertible-note framework, a technique often used to mitigate the dilution impact when notes convert to equity. In parallel, the company is pursuing a registered direct share offering tied to a program to repurchase a portion of its existing convertible notes due in 2029, highlighting an ongoing effort to manage the capital stack in a way that blends financing flexibility with equity preservation.

In the broader context, this approach mirrors a recurring theme among mining and crypto infrastructure players who rely on convertible debt to finance expansion while attempting to shield existing shareholders from excessive dilution. Market observers will be watching not only the terms of the 2032 notes but also the practical effectiveness of the capped-call strategy and the impact of the 2029-note repurchase plan on Bitdeer’s future earnings and share count. The situation also sits within a larger narrative about how crypto-focused companies balance growth ambitions with the need for disciplined capital management amid fluctuating crypto prices and evolving regulatory signals.

Key Takeaways

The Signal: Polymarket bettors price in a 61% chance of imminent US military action.

The Risk: Short-Term Holder SOPR has dipped below 1.0, indicating panic selling at a loss.

The Impact: Bitcoin risks breaking critical $65,000 support if conflict escalates this weekend.

MYX Finance delivered one of the most aggressive intraday rallies in the crypto market this week. After nearly two weeks of persistent decline, the altcoin surged 90% in less than 12 hours. The sharp reversal caught short sellers off guard and reignited speculative interest.

The rally followed news of MYX Finance’s strategic funding round led by Consensys, with participation from Consensys Mesh and Systemic Ventures. The announcement came ahead of the MYX V2 launch. Investors interpreted the backing as a validation of long-term viability, triggering immediate demand.

MYX Finance’s Recovery Was Foretold

BeInCrypto’s analysis highlighted how a rebound was already likely. The Money Flow Index, which measures buying and selling pressure using price and volume, fell below the 20.0 threshold. This marked the first time MYX entered extreme oversold territory since launch.

Oversold readings often indicate selling exhaustion. When MFI drops under 20.0, downside momentum typically weakens. The data suggested that panic-driven distribution had reached saturation. As selling pressure faded, fresh accumulation began, creating the conditions for a sharp recovery.

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Derivatives positioning reinforces the bullish shift. The liquidation map shows MYX contracts currently skewed toward long exposure. Approximately $2.46 million in long positions are active, reflecting growing optimism among traders.

Funding rates have also turned positive. Positive funding indicates that long traders are paying to maintain positions. This dynamic signals confidence in continued upside. However, elevated leverage can increase volatility if momentum stalls.

MYX Price Needs To Breach a Few Barriers

MYX price surged 90% on Friday, pushing the 24-hour gain to 70.6%. At the time of writing, the token trades at $1.74. The move partially offsets the 87% correction recorded over the previous 12 days.

The next resistance stands at $1.82. A decisive break above this level could open the path toward $2.28. Sustained volume and capital inflows will be necessary to validate the breakout. Without confirmation, upside may remain fragile.

If the rally was fueled primarily by speculation surrounding the funding round, selling pressure could return quickly. A failure to sustain gains may send MYX back toward $1.01. Such a decline would invalidate the bullish thesis and erase much of the recent recovery.

Blockchain transaction data tied to cryptocurrency payments may provide an early signal of emerging drug crises, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

The study, which examined illicit market activity across darknet drug and fraud ecosystems, found that crypto flows connected to darknet markets reached nearly $2.6 billion in 2025, showing that online drug markets continue to operate at scale despite repeated law-enforcement takedowns. Vendors typically receive payments from personal wallets and centralized exchanges.

Beyond measuring criminal activity, Chainalysis argued that the data can track real-world health outcomes. Crypto payments to suppliers of fentanyl precursor chemicals declined sharply beginning in mid-2023. Months later, overdose deaths also fell in the United States and Canada after peaking in 2023.

According to the report, monitoring transactions linked to precursor suppliers could provide three to six months of advance warning before overdose trends appear in official public-health statistics.

Crypto drug purchases linked to higher hospitalizations

The analysis also compared transaction data with Canadian hospital records. Small payments of less than $500 showed no clear relationship with emergency visits or deaths. Larger transfers were associated with rising stimulant-related hospitalizations and fatalities, suggesting the transactions likely reflect bulk purchasing or redistribution rather than personal consumption.

Related: Crypto launderers are turning away from centralized exchanges: Chainalysis

“Money moves before the crisis hits. People buy drugs before they redistribute them, and users consume them before they overdose and require medical care,” the report said, adding that since blockchain records update instantly, they can serve as a high-fidelity “early warning system.”

The report also revealed that following the closure of Abacus Market in July 2025, activity quickly migrated to successor platforms such as TorZon. It said that vendors routinely resupply across platforms and relocate after disruptions.

Related: Moonwell hit by $1.78M exploit as AI vibe coding debate reaches DeFi

Fraud shop volumes drop to $87.5 million

Fraud marketplaces showed a different trend. Onchain volumes fell from about $205 million to $87.5 million year-over-year after infrastructure takedowns, but activity shifted toward wholesale operations, particularly Chinese-language networks operating on Telegram that handle large bulk sales of stolen payment data.

Chainalysis reported Friday that crypto transactions linked to suspected human-trafficking networks rose 85% in 2025, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. The activity was largely tied to Southeast Asia and closely connected to scam compounds, online casinos and Chinese-language money-laundering groups, per the report.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author