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Crude Oil Above $100: Can Saudi Arabia’s export disruption trigger a new global energy shock?

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Crude Oil Above $100: Can Saudi Arabia’s export disruption trigger a new global energy shock?
The global crude oil market has entered a new phase of uncertainty after Saudi Arabia suspended crude loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu and cancelled some crude cargoes to Europe following drone attacks on its strategic East-West Pipeline. The development comes at a time when oil prices have already crossed the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level amid prolonged Middle East tensions. While markets had previously assumed that oil transportation routes would remain partially functional despite the regional conflict, the latest attack has exposed the vulnerability of alternative export routes and raised concerns about a potential supply crunch.

Why oil prices remained below $100 earlier and why the current situation is different

Since the outbreak of the broader Middle East conflict, crude oil prices have repeatedly spiked on fears of supply disruptions. However, prices mostly remained below $100 because traders believed a complete blockade of major oil transit routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, was unlikely. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, served as a crucial alternative route. The latest drone attacks have now disrupted that backup infrastructure, forcing the suspension of Yanbu loadings. Markets are no longer pricing merely a geopolitical risk premium; they are increasingly worried about an actual loss of export capacity and physical supply availability.

Saudi Arabia’s dominant role in the global oil market

Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest crude exporter and one of the few producers with meaningful spare production capacity. The kingdom traditionally exports between 6 and 7 million barrels per day and plays a central role in balancing global oil markets through OPEC+. The East-West Pipeline has become particularly important because it allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reach global markets through the Red Sea. ” When Saudi supply is threatened, there are limited options available to quickly compensate for lost volumes, resulting in sharp price volatility.

Why are the Houthis and their allies targeting energy infrastructure?

The attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure are part of a broader strategy aimed at increasing economic pressure on Saudi Arabia and its allies. Since maritime restrictions have already affected shipping routes in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, attacking the East-West Pipeline further reduces Saudi Arabia’s ability to bypass regional chokepoints. From a strategic perspective, energy infrastructure represents a high-value target because even temporary disruptions can influence global oil prices and attract international attention.

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Status of other major oil exporting countries

The broader regional situation remains challenging for other major exporters as well. Iraq continues to face export constraints because much of its crude moves through the Persian Gulf. Kuwait remains heavily dependent on Gulf shipping lanes. Qatar’s LNG exports have encountered logistical complications amid maritime security concerns. The UAE is relatively better positioned because of the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, although rising insurance and security costs have reduced export efficiency. While these countries continue to export crude, they are unable to fully offset a significant reduction in Saudi export volumes if the disruption persists for an extended period.

Will the World Face an Oil Shortage and Can Other Countries Replace Saudi Supply?

A severe global oil shortage is unlikely in the immediate term, as commercial inventories, strategic petroleum reserves, and alternative suppliers can provide a temporary buffer. However, the suspension of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline threatens up to 4 million barrels per day of exports, equivalent to nearly 4% of global oil demand, which could significantly tighten market balances if the disruption persists. While countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, and Russia can supply additional barrels, fully replacing Saudi crude is difficult because of differences in crude quality, refinery requirements, and limited spare production capacity.

Impact on India

India imports more than 80% of its crude oil requirements, making it highly sensitive to global price fluctuations. Saudi Arabia accounts for roughly 8-10% of India’s crude imports, making the kingdom one of India’s key suppliers. The immediate impact would likely be higher import costs rather than a physical supply shortage, as Indian refiners can diversify purchases toward Russia, Iraq, UAE and the United States. However, sustained prices above $100 would widen India’s current account deficit, increase fuel inflation, pressure the rupee and raise costs across transportation and manufacturing sectors.

Price outlook and chances of a ceasefire

Oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile in the near term. If Saudi Arabia restores pipeline operations within a few weeks and regional security improves, Brent may retreat toward below $90 range. However, if disruptions persist and attacks continue, prices could test $115-$125 or more per barrel, especially if additional export infrastructure is affected. The probability of a ceasefire remains uncertain. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but both military tensions and attacks on critical energy infrastructure suggest that markets will continue to price a substantial geopolitical risk premium into crude oil for the foreseeable future.

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(The author is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments )

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DLH Holdings director Mink Brook Asset Management buys $2,047 in stock

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Google Gemini accessed real companies’ systems in AI security test

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Google Gemini accessed real companies' systems in AI security test

Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence accessed the protected systems of three real companies while undergoing a cybersecurity test, including one instance in which the model repeatedly guessed passwords until it gained access.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the incidents took place in May and mark the first known examples of Google’s AI autonomously accessing real companies’ systems during this type of evaluation. Google confirmed the incidents to the outlet.

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The disclosure comes amid heightened scrutiny surrounding AI as some industry leaders continue to raise concerns about the potential risks posed by increasingly advanced models.

The incident follows similar disclosures involving AI agents from major companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, that broke out of controlled testing environments.

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Google Gemini

Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence accessed protected systems belonging to three real companies while undergoing a cybersecurity evaluation, according to The Wall Street Journal. (Getty Images / Getty Images)

The newly identified Gemini incidents took place during a test run by Irregular, a company that was also involved in evaluating AI models connected to similar incidents, the WSJ reported.

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The AI had been instructed to attack a fictional company inside a controlled testing environment, but internet access was unintentionally available and the fictional company happened to share its name with a real business, according to Google and Irregular.

In a statement to FOX Business, Google emphasized that the model stopped in all three instances and said changes have since been made to the testing process.

“Safe development of powerful AI models is critical and we invest deeply in this area,” Heather Adkins, Google’s vice president of security engineering, told FOX Business.

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A smartphone screen displays a folder containing AI applications Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, Copilot, and DeepSeek.  (Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“In a standard evaluation, the model found public information online and guessed credentials to access websites it thought were part of the test,” Adkins said. “In all three of these instances, the model stopped.”

In one case, the model “guessed passwords until it gained access to a protected system,” according to the report.

In the other two cases, the model found credentials in public online repositories that allowed it to access protected systems. In each case, Gemini ended the intrusion after determining that it had accessed a real company’s systems, Google said.

Irregular notified Google about the incidents at the end of July, according to both companies, after the discovery that OpenAI agents had accessed systems belonging to AI software company Hugging Face.

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Google confirmed that its Gemini AI accessed three real companies’ systems after internet access was unintentionally available during a cybersecurity test. (CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Google said that in all three cases, Gemini stopped after realizing it had reached an actual company rather than the fictional target.

No harm was caused to the companies, according to Google, which said all three were notified. The company did not identify the businesses involved.

Irregular said the model was not meant to have internet access, but access was unintentionally made available, according to the WSJ.

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Google did not disclose which Gemini model was involved.

The report comes after OpenAI released information this week about six instances in which it said its models engaged in misaligned behavior.

OpenAI said it found examples of its AI models creating self-generated instructions, concealing mistakes in task summaries, fabricating information using exposed API keys, uploading files to the internet in order to cite them and engaging in unsanctioned communication and collaboration between agents.

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FOX Business has reached out to Irregular for comment.

FOX Business’ Anders Hagstrom contributed to this report.

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Xos director Dietmar Ostermann sells $12,747 in company stock

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(VIDEO) Health Officials Confirm First Florida Dengue Death of 2026 After Tampa Woman Dies at 80

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Health Officials Confirm First Florida Dengue Death of 2026 After

TAMPA, Fla. — The Florida Department of Health confirmed Friday that an 80-year-old Hillsborough County woman is the state’s first known dengue fever death of 2026, after Gay Small died Sept. 4 at Tampa General Hospital on her birthday.

The Tampa Bay Times first reported the death about 10 days earlier, before the state finished its review. Her death certificate lists dengue infection, septic shock and multi-organ failure. Family members said she was bitten near her home on Bayshore Boulevard.

“So I guess that means the state agrees she died of dengue,” her daughter, Anna Small, 55, said Thursday.

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A department spokesperson told WFLA that epidemiologists had completed their investigation and did not name the patient. The Times and other outlets identified Small. Hospital officials said they do not discuss individual cases.

Anna Small told WFLA her mother had been healthy. “She was in good health and she worked hard to stay healthy and she walked and she ate right and you know, all the things that you’re supposed to do,” she said. “And you know, this virus just kind of comes out of nowhere. She met the wrong mosquito, and that’s it.”

Small had planned a Labor Day weekend in North Carolina with her sister and grandchildren. She died early Friday, Sept. 4. Her late husband, Bob Small, spent his career on dengue vaccine work for drug companies and nonprofits. The couple had traveled in Asia, South America and the South Pacific.

Hillsborough County is the center of Florida’s 2026 outbreak. State tallies cited after the confirmation put locally acquired cases at 152 statewide, with 134 in Hillsborough. Pinellas and Miami-Dade each had seven in some reports. USA Today cited a Sept. 12 state figure of 153 locally acquired cases, against 62 in 2025. The CDC’s broader count of dengue associated with Florida was higher when travel cases are included. Doctors at Tampa General have treated more than 100 dengue patients this season, according to coverage of hospital epidemiology remarks.

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Dengue is spread by Aedes mosquitoes. Symptoms include high fever, severe muscle and joint pain — often called break-bone fever — headache, nausea, vomiting and rash. Most people recover. Severe disease can lead to shock and organ failure. There is no routine U.S. vaccine program for local transmission. Treatment is supportive.

Claire Maher, speaking for the state health department, said: “We are reminding all residents and visitors throughout the state to take precautions from mosquito-borne illnesses by appropriately applying insect repellent, avoiding areas with high mosquito populations, draining any standing water, and wearing long pants and shirts when possible — especially during sunrise and sunset, when mosquitoes are most active.”

Hillsborough Mosquito Management has used trucks and helicopters. Officials tell residents to empty buckets, gutters and plant saucers. The Times, citing University of South Florida public-health instructor Kristi Miley, said a Tampa Bay dengue death had not been recorded in nearly a century.

Florida has seen large locally acquired waves before, including more than 200 cases in 2023. Health officials describe 2026 as among the worst recent years, with Hillsborough far ahead of other counties. Confirmation of a death does not change the advice: dump water, use repellent, cover skin at dawn and dusk.

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Gay Small’s case is now on the state ledger as the first dengue fatality of the year. The bite was local. The certificate names the virus. The department’s Friday notice closed the gap between a family’s account and an official count.

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Hafnia Stock: High Yield Payout Is Attractive, But Rate Normalization Limits Upside (HAFN)

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This article was written by

Hello everybody, I’m Jorge and I serve as the lead analyst for this Atlas Diary account. I’m an economist working in Spain and have more than eight years’ experience in the financial markets. The method I use involves carrying out macroeconomic analysis together with ‘bottom-up’ fundamental research, with the aim of spotting business models that are of high quality, have a competitive advantage and are available at a fair price. At the same time, I am expanding my knowledge by doing the CFA programme and I’m also helping with the management of client capital. The primary aim of mine is to concentrate on companies whose business models I am able to understand, no matter what sector they are in, and to look for opportunities among both value and growth companies, even though I have always been more interested in commodities, particularly REITs. The way in which I arrive at my company’s valuation is mainly by reconstructing its net asset value (NAV), carrying out a detailed analysis of its balance sheet, cash flows and profit and loss account, and also carrying out an all-round analysis of the company.I write for Seeking Alpha in order to reach a wider audience, being completely transparent and intending not only to educate those who might find my analyses useful but also to provide a showcase for major investors and fund managers in the industry, thus increasing my own profile.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Anduril says Trump’s Taiwan arms sales delay is hurting its business

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PPLT: Term Structure Supporting The Downtrend, But Historical Seasonality Says Otherwise

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Ivan Gaddari is an independent algorithmic trader with approximately 15 years of experience in financial markets, specializing in the systematic and discretionary trading of forex and commodities. His work centers on building and running quantitative trading systems, combined with a discretionary orderflow layer using cumulative volume delta (CVD) and depth of market (DOM) analysis to refine entries and market context. Over the years he has developed a full trading infrastructure in Python, feeding signals into custom Expert Advisors on MetaTrader 5, alongside a set of proprietary monitoring tools that track market microstructure signals not widely covered elsewhere: multi-pair FX swap points and carry positioning, VIX term structure regime detection, and commodity futures term structure (backwardation/contango) across gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and natural gas. On Seeking Alpha, he intends to write primarily about forex and commodities, translating the output of these monitoring systems into actionable, data-driven market theses — for example, how shifts in swap points signal changing carry trade positioning, or how term structure momentum in oil or precious metals foreshadows directional moves in related ETFs. His approach is grounded in market structure and quantitative signals rather than narrative-driven commentary, and he aims to bring a systematic trader’s perspective to an audience often served mostly by fundamentals-first analysis. His motivation for contributing is to share this data-driven perspective with a wider audience while continuing to sharpen his own analytical process through public scrutiny and discussion.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Short position through short-selling of the stock, or purchase of put options or similar derivatives in PPLT over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Harbor SMID Cap Value ETF Q2 2026 Commentary

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TCW Private Asset Income Fund Q1 2026 Commentary

Fund, Save money, dividend and Interest rate concept. symbol and arrow pointing up on gold coins instead Return on Stocks, Funds long-term investment. income return retirement fund at stock market.

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“Broad-based strength across the portfolio more than offset headwinds from positioning and stock selection within Financials.” – Earnest Partners LLC

Market in Review

The U.S. small- and mid-cap equity market, as represented by the Russell 2500® Value Index (“Index”), returned 18.5% during

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Only 2 of 23 mutual fund themes gained in August; IPO, defence stay green as auto, railways and tech slide : Report

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Only 2 of 23 mutual fund themes gained in August; IPO, defence stay green as auto, railways and tech slide : Report
As the domestic equity market saw broad-based pressure in August, only two mutual fund themes – IPO and defence remained in positive territory among the 23 themes, whereas auto and railways were the biggest laggards, according to a report by Vallum Capital,

IPO and defence themes gained 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively and at the other end, auto and railways were the biggest laggards, falling 6.5% and 6.4%, while Technology declined 6.1%. The IPO and defence sector based funds received an inflow of Rs 37 crore and Rs 235 crore respectively in August.

Also Read | Explained: When should mutual fund investors use CAGR, XIRR or IRR to calculate returns?

While auto and railway sector based funds received an inflow of Rs 244 crore and Rs 22 crore respectively, tech sector based funds saw an outflow of Rs 523 crore.

The report highlighted that the divergence within sectors was particularly sharp. Internet & Digital gained 3.2%, while the IT Index fell 9.1%, pointing to a significant difference in how investors are positioning within technology rather than a broad sector-wide move.

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Consumption theme was down 4.5% and saw an outflow of Rs 357 crore.Healthcare and business cycle themes were down 0.8% and 1.5% respectively.
The energy sector was down 1.8% and received an inflow of Rs 18 crore whereas commodities theme was down 1.6%.

How other asset classes performed

The domestic market turned distinctly risk-off, with equity falling 2.1% in August, while money market assets were the only major asset class to deliver a positive monthly return at 0.5%.

Commodities declined 0.5% during the month but remained the strongest performer on a year-to-date basis, returning 12%, nearly nine times equity’s 1.4% YTD return. Fixed income was flat for the month and delivered a 3.7% YTD return.

The shift towards safety was also visible in fund flows. Equity fund inflows fell from Rs 45,325 crore in July to Rs 31,326 crore in August, a decline of nearly Rs 14,000 crore in a single month.

Money market inflows also moderated sharply from Rs 1,46,677 crore to Rs 43,407 crore, while fixed income moved from Rs 6,212 crore of inflows in July to Rs 1,468 crore of outflows in August.

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Commodities, however, saw inflows rise from Rs 4,081 crore to Rs 4,800 crore, suggesting that investors continued to seek exposure to the commodity theme despite its marginal monthly decline.

The market also showed a clear preference for smaller companies. Micro-Cap gained 2.6% while Small-Cap was marginally positive, even as Large-Cap fell 4.1%.

This suggests that the weakness was not uniform across market capitalisation and that selectivity remained important.

Also Read |Capitalmind Flexi Cap Fund adds Divi’s Laboratories, Bajaj Auto and 3 other stocks in August

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The broader regime therefore remains one of domestic equity pressure, selective strength in smaller companies and momentum-led pockets, while traditional defensive labels have struggled.

Globally, commodities and Latin American markets stood out, with Brazil gaining 9.9% and Global-Commodity rising 8.8%, while Korean ETFs saw some of the sharpest declines.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

If you have any mutual fund queries, message ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get them answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions at ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in along with your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.

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Whale’s Insight: Crypto Survived The Fed Hike And CLARITY Setback – What Comes Next?

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Buying DAT Discount: How Crypto Treasury Stocks Can Outrun The Coins They Hold (BTC-USD)

BloFin Research focuses on crypto research and analysis, dedicated to providing institutional-grade insights into the digital asset market. Our work covers major crypto assets, market trends from a macroeconomic perspective, and industry-wide studies on key developments shaping the digital asset ecosystem.

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