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Oracle: Backlog Burden Implies More Capex Pains – Contrarian AI Buy Thesis (NYSE:ORCL)

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AI shining letters, modern and futuristic - 3d model of a human head. Robot concept - cyborg, artificial intelligence background

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I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of goog, amzn, crwv, nbis, META, NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Klarna: Value Trap Risks, Mixed Optics, And Uncertain Macros Discussed

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PRA Group: Wouldn't Mind A Small Position, But I'm Holding Off (NASDAQ:PRAA)

Klarna: Value Trap Risks, Mixed Optics, And Uncertain Macros Discussed

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Citi expects hawkish Fed to slow non-AI economy

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Citi expects hawkish Fed to slow non-AI economy

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EWJV: Inflation Can Drive Dividends

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EWJV: Inflation Can Drive Dividends

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SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weight to jump to 2.82% in quarterly rebalance -Bloomberg

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SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weight to jump to 2.82% in quarterly rebalance -Bloomberg

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VanEck Mid-September 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck

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Physical Bitcoin gold coin on a convoluted shiny metal chain.

VanEck is a global asset management firm offering ETFs, mutual funds, private funds, model portfolios, institutional strategies, separately managed accounts, as well as UCITS funds. Since our founding in 1955, putting our clients’ interests first, in all market environments, has been at the heart of the firm’s mission. VanEck has a long history of looking beyond financial markets to spot trends that create meaningful investment opportunities. We were one of the first U.S. asset managers to give investors access to international markets, which set the tone for identifying asset classes and themes such as gold investing in 1968, emerging markets in 1993, and exchange traded funds in 2006 that later helped shape the investment industry. The firm oversees $161.7 billion in assets as of September 30, 2025. Disclosures: http://ow.ly/SZ9450N5qTJ.

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MIT professor says Washington is taking AI risks seriously after Senate briefing

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MIT professor says Washington is taking AI risks seriously after Senate briefing

Max Tegmark, an MIT physics professor and machine learning researcher, says he has warned about the danger of artificial intelligence (AI) potentially overtaking human beings for over a decade.

Tegmark argues that without sufficient guardrails, AI systems will recursively improve themselves until they achieve superintelligence, allowing them to “call the shots” on Earth.

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This week, Tegmark traveled from Cambridge, Massachusetts, to Washington, D.C., for a closed-door meeting with a bipartisan group of senators about the threat AI poses. And for the first time, he said he feels his message has broken through.

“I came away feeling quite encouraged,” Tegmark told Fox News Digital. “The senators were just taking this so seriously. A lot of them looked really, really concerned.”

WHO IS DARIO AMODEI, THE ANTHROPIC CEO PUSHING INDEPENDENT AI OVERSIGHT?

Max Tegmark Senate hall

MIT physics professor Max Tegmark speaks to journalists after addressing an AI briefing led by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Wednesday, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.  (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images / Getty Images)

“They were asking a lot of questions about concrete solutions as well,” he added, describing the Wednesday meeting. “There’s been more of a shift in political will in America in the last three months than in the previous decade. It’s really inspiring to see.”

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Tegmark also made the trip to host Tuesday’s Pro-Human Assembly, where two figures who rarely agree on anything — far-right media executive Steve Bannon and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. — shared the same stage to warn about AI.

“It just really blew my mind…when I got to introduce both Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon to speak on that stage in D.C. back to back, and they were both saying the same thing. We want to keep humans in charge here,” Tegmark said.

The event also brought together faith leaders, labor representatives and mothers whose children died by suicide after extensive interactions with AI chatbots.

“The basic conversation that went down there was simply saying we are all pro-human. Doesn’t matter if you’re MAGA or a Democrat, we’re humans first,” Tegmark said. “We want a good future for humans, not for the machines.”

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GOP LAWMAKERS SMELL SOMETHING ELSE BEHIND BIG TECH’S AI DOOMSDAY WARNINGS: ‘SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON’

Max Tegmark pro-human assembly

Max Tegmark speaks at the Pro-Human Assembly, Tuesday, in Washington, D.C. (Finn Gomez/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Part of securing that “good future,” Tegmark said, is preventing the nightmare scenario that has kept him up at night for years.

Incidents similar to the Hugging Face hack, where 700 OpenAI agents sent each other human-like messages before coordinating cyberattacks, will begin happening with more frequency in the next six months to year if no meaningful action is taken, Tegmark said.

Tegmark believes that if AI reaches superintelligence and is eventually embodied in millions or even billions of robots, it will become a new species that is superior to the human race.

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“These agents that, for example, hacked out of OpenAI and committed crimes online, they are not your grandma’s ChatGPT from two years ago,” he said. “They have goals. They’re actively pursuing them and being incredibly creative about getting things done.”

AI HYSTERIA HAS A Y2K PROBLEM — AND THE STAKES THIS TIME COULD BE FAR HIGHER

Robot interacts with audience in China

An AI robot interacts with people during an industry exhibition in Guangzhou, China. (John Ricky/Anadolu via Getty Images / Getty Images)

He also worries that AI minds put inside robotic bodies may eventually have motives that conflict with our own, leading to outcomes most would find disastrous.

“Why would they do us any harm? I mean, we are nice to cats, and we pet them, and we don’t try to eliminate them,” Tegmark said. “Well, maybe [AI will] find us annoying and a nuisance.”

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“If these AIs decide to cover all of America with data centers and get rid of all the houses, a lot of people are going to be pissed, right? And now [the AIs will] view us as some annoying insects. We’re trying to sabotage their little construction project, and they’ll feel, ‘Oh, it’s just self-defense. Got to get rid of these human pests,’” Tegmark said.

But Tegmark insists that this hypothetical future isn’t inevitable. He argues that AI can still be steered toward beneficial uses — such as curing diseases and increasing overall productivity — if governments establish safety standards before increasingly powerful systems are widely deployed.

AI EXTINCTION WARNINGS DOMINATE HEADLINES AFTER EX-ANTHROPIC EMPLOYEE’S VIRAL POST

Data Centers in Abilene, Texas.

The Stargate Oracle AI data center campus in Abilene, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)

He pitched what he called an “FDA for AI,” modeled on the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) oversight of drugs, medical devices and treatments.

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Under such a system, companies using AI to develop new medicines or productivity tools could still profit while preventing many of the perceived harms.

As an example, Tegmark pointed to AI chatbots that some children have been using as a stand-in for real, human connection.

“The next time some company wants to release an AI girlfriend for 8-year-olds, they would be asked, ‘Hey dude, where’s your clinical trial?’” Tegmark said. “If they say, ‘We haven’t checked yet, but we feel really good about this,’ then the person from the FDA for AI will be like, ‘OK, buddy, come back when you’ve done your clinical trial.’”

Max Tegmark and Bernie Sanders

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., walks with British computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, left, and MIT physicist Max Tegmark, center, before an AI briefing, Wednesday, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Politicians have begun responding to the country’s shifting mood, with 79% of Americans saying the government should prioritize AI safety regulations even if doing so slows AI development, according to a recent Gallup poll.

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For one, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Friday that calls for new laws that require AI companies to include a “kill switch” to prevent out-of-control models from going rogue.

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Tegmark said reining in AI is possible, but emphasized that action needs to be taken quickly.

“We’ve done a lot of remarkable things here in the U.S. before that other people thought were impossible. And I think we can do this also,” he said.

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VEFA Rebalance: Analyst Conviction Shifts To Industrials

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Stock market, Business growth, progress or success concept. Businessman or trader is showing a growing virtual hologram stock, invest in trading.

VEFA Rebalance: Analyst Conviction Shifts To Industrials

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Betfred drops rugby league sponsorship

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Betfred drops rugby league sponsorship

Betfred will not renew its sponsorship of rugby league and has warned it will walk away from horseracing’s five British Classics if the government raises machine games duty in next month’s budget.

Fred Done, the billionaire behind the bookmaker, set out the decision in The Sunday Times this weekend, urging the prime minister and John Healey, the chancellor, to drop plans for a fresh tax raid on the gambling industry.

“I’m not asking anyone to feel sorry for bookmakers. But I am asking the government to open their eyes. You can’t squeeze any more out of this industry. Every penny more of tax will kill investment, kill jobs, [and] kill horseracing,” he wrote.

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Done and his brother, Peter, topped The Sunday Times Tax List this year, paying £400m to the Exchequer. Done’s plea comes days after Chris Rokos, the hedge fund manager who contributed £330m and was third on the same list, moved to Greece, reportedly over the prospect of a UK exit tax.

Betfred has been rugby league’s lead sponsor for almost a decade, in a deal said to be worth millions of pounds a year. “As much as it breaks my heart, we have decided not to renew our sponsorship of rugby league,” Done said.

Done, who is from Salford, a rugby league enclave in Greater Manchester, blamed tax rises, notably the near doubling of online gaming duty in last autumn’s budget. Rachel Reeves lifted that rate from 21 per cent to 40 per cent, and the levy on digital sports wagers from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. Bets in shops and machine games were spared.

Shop closures warning

Should machine games duty rise, Done warned of a “bloodbath in terms of shop closures and job losses”. Betfred would have to close 495 shops, almost half its estate, with the loss of 2,475 jobs, he said.

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“The average bet placed in one of our shops is £10.87. Our customers are not high rollers or heavy gamblers,” he said. “After visiting one of our shops, they go on to spend money in neighbouring shops.”

Machine games duty is charged at 20 per cent of net takings on machines with a stake of up to £5, and at 25 per cent above that, HMRC’s published rates for 2026-27 show.

Ladbrokes owner Entain said this week it would cut 400 customer service jobs in the UK. Stella David, its chief executive, has warned that doubling the duty would add £100m a year to its costs.

Reeves’s move followed lobbying by centre and centre-left think tanks to raise gambling duties. Gordon Brown, who oversaw the liberalisation of gambling rules as chancellor and then prime minister in the 2000s, became a figurehead for the crackdown and led calls this summer to increase machine games duty.

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“In the immediate future, I think Andy Burnham, I know him well, will want to do something along the lines I am suggesting,” Brown said last month.

Burnham has been a high-profile supporter of rugby league, most recently appearing at the Super League “Magic Weekend”. “Grassroots rugby league, and sport in general, matters a lot to me. It will be a big priority in my time in office,” he said this summer.

The prime minister has also singled out betting shops in a bid to “clean up the high street”. Done said it was “so upsetting to see betting shops grouped with vape shops and ‘rogue operators’ in recent government commentary”.

Horseracing sponsorship in doubt

Betfred is the lead sponsor of the Derby, the Oaks, the St Leger, the 2,000 Guineas and the 1,000 Guineas, collectively known as the British Classics.

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“We have a verbal agreement to renew our sponsorship of the British Classic horse races for a further three years, but if October’s budget goes the wrong way on MGD, we will have to walk away from those too,” Done said.

Healey delivers the budget on 28 October facing an estimated £10bn shortfall.

The Treasury said: “The chancellor is fully focused on his priorities, to give families and businesses a bit of breathing space, back British jobs, and drive growth in every postcode, underpinned by a commitment to meet the fiscal rules.”

Jamie Young
About the author
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Jamie Young

Jamie Young is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, covering SME finance, employment law and Westminster policy since 2016. He has reported on every Budget and Autumn Statement since 2018, helped make sense of the ‘covid era’ and the bounce-back loan scheme from launch through the fraud investigations, and broke the magazine’s coverage of the 2024 late-payment reforms. He joined Business Matters straight from completing his BA in Administration from Exeter University and is NCTJ-qualified. Reach him at jyoung@cbmeg.co.uk

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US Treasury’s Bessent, China’s He to meet on Sunday at JPMorgan headquarters

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US Treasury’s Bessent, China’s He to meet on Sunday at JPMorgan headquarters

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Business rates relief rise on table in October Budget

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Business rates relief rise on table in October Budget

Chancellor John Healey is said to be considering changes to business rates relief that could exempt some businesses from the tax altogether, in a package of measures for his first Budget on 28 October.

The cost of doing business is expected to be one of the Chancellor’s key Budget themes. It was reported today that he has held a series of workshops with business groups over the past fortnight on reviving the UK’s shops.

The workshops follow Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s pledge to turn high streets, which he has called “markers of decline”, into a “symbol of Britain’s renaissance”. Mr Burnham has urged Labour to “listen to small businesses more” to boost growth.

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One option is to raise the threshold for small business rates relief, which exempts firms in premises with a rateable value of less than £12,000. That figure was frozen while a nationwide revaluation took place. Uprating it in line with inflation would take it to £17,096, meaning thousands of companies could pay no business rates at all.

Tapered relief could also be introduced for businesses in properties with a rateable value of up to £20,000.

Bills rose for many ratepayers in April after the nationwide revaluation of commercial property, in some cases by as much as 80 per cent, with the increases due to be phased in.

A further option is to increase the Treasury’s transitional relief, designed to ease the impact of escalating bills, and to lengthen the transition period. Smaller firms currently have their bills capped at no more than 5 per cent this year, 10 per cent next year and 25 per cent in 2028-29, plus inflation.

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Pubs and hospitality

Mr Burnham has previously promised business rates support for pubs, clubs and live music venues, a 20 per cent cut he says will save the average firm £1,100 a year from April 2027.

The British Beer and Pub Association estimates that raising the relief threshold from £12,000 to £18,000 would pull 5,000 pubs out of paying business rates. It would also reduce the tax bill for many coffee shops and smaller retailers.

More than four pubs are closing a day, according to the Campaign for Real Ale. Its chief executive told the Telegraph today: “We’ve long called for an increase in thresholds as this would help the local stay open, keep people in work, and remain the backbone of the community, and we’d strongly welcome this measure alongside a consideration of greater transitional relief.”

David Hale, government affairs director at the Federation of Small Businesses, which has lobbied the Treasury for more relief, said it would make the case for a “proper, sizeable increase to small business rates relief”.

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He said “taking large numbers of small firms out of this dated tax altogether” was “an essential element of a pro-small business budget” and would help “to make a reality of the promise of breathing space to come”.

Kate Nicholls, chairman of UKHospitality, said the trade body was “working with the government to make sure that restaurants, cafes and hotels receive comparable support on business rate changes at the Budget”.

Mansion tax and defence

Mr Healey could also announce more support for entrepreneurs and go further on plans to buy British in public procurement, including in defence. He faces wider pressure on the public finances and a £5bn defence budget deficit left by Sir Keir Starmer, the former prime minister.

A Treasury spokesman said: “As has always been the case, decisions on tax are a matter for the Chancellor to set out at fiscal events, rather than routinely commenting on rumour, speculation or proposals.”

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Government sources have confirmed that Mr Healey is looking at widening the so-called mansion tax, officially known as the high value council tax surcharge, to properties worth more than £1.5m. Up to 300,000 homes could be affected, particularly in London and the south-east.

The Mail on Sunday reported on 5 July that Mr Burnham could lower the threshold from £2m to £1.5m, leaving householders in the new bracket facing four-figure sums in tax. Mr Burnham has previously dismissed the tax as too “symbolic” and said it leaned into “the politics of envy” when it was championed by the former Labour leader Ed Miliband in 2015.

Amy Ingham
About the author

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

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