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If War With Iran Is Almost Certain, How Might Bitcoin Price React?

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If War With Iran Is Almost Certain, How Might Bitcoin Price React?

Bitcoin price is on the edge again.

Price swings are getting crazy, and it’s sitting around $67,400 like it’s not sure which way to jump. Traders are nervous. Really nervous.

On Polymarket, bettors now put the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran this month at 61%. Crypto felt it fast. Liquidations rolled in. Risk-off mode kicked on. And suddenly, everyone’s playing defense.

Key Takeaways

The Signal: Polymarket bettors price in a 61% chance of imminent US military action.

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The Risk: Short-Term Holder SOPR has dipped below 1.0, indicating panic selling at a loss.

The Impact: Bitcoin risks breaking critical $65,000 support if conflict escalates this weekend.

Why Is This Happening Now?

Tensions between Washington and Tehran feels almost certain now.

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Reports say the Pentagon has strike options ready after nuclear talks stalled. That kind of headline pushes investors straight into gold and cash. Risk assets get dumped first.

On chain data backs it up. The Short Term Holder SOPR is below 1. That means recent buyers are selling at a loss just to get out.

Source: CryptoQuant

Add in uncertainty around possible Fed policy tweaks and you get a messy mix. Geopolitics plus macro pressure. While the US Iran story dominates, Bitcoin is trading like a classic risk asset, with sharp intraday drops and fragile sentiment.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin Price?

Bitcoin is leaning hard on the $66,000 to $65,729 support zone. Lose that on a daily close and $60,000 comes into focus fast.

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The short term Sharpe ratio has flipped negative, showing ugly risk adjusted returns during the panic. Nearly $80M in longs have already been wiped out since the drop from $70,000.

Source: BTCUSD / TradingView

While retail is dumping, some political insiders are floating massive long term targets. That hints whales may see this dip as opportunity. Arthur Hayes also pointed to Treasury liquidity dynamics that could support crypto once the dust settles.

Volatility into the weekend looks guaranteed. But talks in Oman on Friday could change the tone. If tensions cool, a sharp relief rally could trap late shorts.

Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode!

The post If War With Iran Is Almost Certain, How Might Bitcoin Price React? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Crypto World

CME Launches 24/7 Crypto Futures Trading Starting May 29

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Is Blue Owl Redemption Halt an Early Alarm for Crypto Markets?

CME Group will run cryptocurrency futures and options on CME Globex around the clock starting May 29, 2026, after recording $3 trillion in notional volume across its crypto derivatives in 2025.

Why it matters:

  • Traders can react to breaking news on weekends, eliminating the price gap risk that builds when crypto markets move while CME is closed.
  • Institutions managing crypto exposure via CME derivatives gain continuous hedging access, reducing overnight risk accumulation.
  • The move signals CME’s direct response to demand from TradFi firms scaling into digital assets.

The details:

  • CME Group announced the 24/7 schedule on February 19, 2026, pending regulatory approval, per an official press release.
  • Crypto derivatives average daily volume (ADV) hit 407,200 contracts year-to-date in 2026, up 46% year-over-year.
  • Futures ADV reached 403,900 contracts, up 47% year-over-year, per CME Group data.
  • Average daily open interest stands at 335,400 contracts, up 7% year-over-year.
  • CME confirmed the launch date of May 29, 2026, via its official X account.

The big picture:

  • CME’s 2025 crypto notional volume of $3 trillion confirms institutional demand for regulated derivatives now rivals spot market activity.
  • The 24/7 schedule aligns CME with native crypto exchanges, which have always traded continuously, narrowing a structural gap between TradFi and DeFi.
  • Continuous trading on a regulated venue could pull institutional volume away from offshore perpetual futures markets.

The post CME Launches 24/7 Crypto Futures Trading Starting May 29 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Tether USDT Set for Biggest Monthly Decline Since FTX Collapse

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Tether USDT Set for Biggest Monthly Decline Since FTX Collapse

Tether’s USDT, the world’s largest US dollar-pegged stablecoin, is heading for its steepest monthly decline in years as large holders step up redemptions, according to blockchain data.

The circulating supply of USDt (USDT) fell by about $1.5 billion so far in February, following an $1.2 billion decrease in January, according to Artemis Analytics data reported by Bloomberg. This puts USDT on track for the biggest monthly drop in three years, weeks after the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in November 2022.

The USDT supply logged a $2 billion decrease in December 2022 after the collapse of FTX and its 150 subsidiaries sent shockwaves through the crypto industry.

The decline may signal a contraction in crypto market liquidity, as Tether’s USDT is the primary on-ramp for crypto investors. Its $183 billion market capitalization accounts for about 71% of the total stablecoin market, according to CoinMarketCap. 

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Tether USDT, monthly percentage supply change, monthly aggregate. Source: Artemis Analytics, Bloomberg

Cointelegraph reached out to Tether for comment on what is driving the February supply drop, but had not received a response by publication.

Related: BlackRock enters DeFi as institutional crypto push accelerates: Finance Redefined

Total stablecoin market cap flat in February

The pullback in USDT has not translated into a broader contraction across dollar-linked stablecoins.

The total market capitalization of stablecoins across all exchanges has risen 2.33% so far in February, from $300 billion to $307 billion, according to DeFiLlama data.

Total stablecoin market capitalization. Source: DeFiLlama

While the two leading stablecoins, USDT and Circle’s USDC (USDC), both decreased by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively, the Trump-family-linked World Liberty Financial’s USD1 (USD1) stablecoin recorded a 50% increase in market capitalization over the past month and was valued at $5.1 billion as of Friday, according to DeFiLlama.

Related: Wells Fargo sees ‘YOLO’ trade driving $150B into Bitcoin and risk assets

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Whales and smart money traders offload USDT, but fresh wallets stepping in

Whales, or large cryptocurrency investors, have been cutting their USDT holdings, but new participants are bringing fresh demand for the leading stablecoin.

Whale wallets sold $69.9 million USDT across 22 wallets over the past week, marking a 1.6-fold increase in the selling rate of this cohort, according to crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

USDT on Ethereum, token God mode, 1-year chart. Source: Nansen

The leading traders by returns, tracked as “smart money,” have also been net sellers of USDT. At the same time, new wallets created in the past 15 days bought roughly $591 million worth of USDT over the week, according to the platform.

The mixed flows highlight a market split between large holders redeeming or reallocating capital and new entrants stepping in to take the other side, even as overall stablecoin issuance remains broadly steady.

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Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight