Crypto World
Move Over M2: Data Shows Treasury T-Bill Issuance Drives Bitcoin Price Cycles
TLDR:
- Treasury T-bill issuance holds a +0.80 correlation with Bitcoin price over the last four years of data.
- M2 money supply has decoupled from Bitcoin, making it an unreliable indicator for forecasting price direction.
- The Fed balance sheet scores a near-zero correlation of -0.07 with Bitcoin, removing it as a credible signal.
- T-bill issuance peaked in late 2024, and Bitcoin has shown renewed weakness as early 2026 issuance declines.
T-bill issuance is gaining recognition as Bitcoin’s most reliable macro indicator, pushing aside long-favored metrics like M2 money supply.
A crypto analyst recently shared data pointing to a +0.80 correlation between Treasury T-bill issuance and Bitcoin over four years.
That figure towers above what M2 and the Federal Reserve balance sheet have managed to produce. With Bitcoin last trading around $67,721, the conversation around macro signals is shifting in a clear direction.
Why M2 and the Fed Balance Sheet No Longer Tell the Full Story
T-bill issuance is stepping into the spotlight as M2 money supply loses its grip as a Bitcoin forecasting tool. Crypto analyst Axel Bitblaze posted on X that Bitcoin has already decoupled from M2 in observable stretches.
During those periods, M2 stayed flat or moved higher, yet Bitcoin did not respond accordingly.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet has also struggled to track Bitcoin’s price behavior with any consistency. Bitblaze recorded the correlation between the Fed balance sheet and Bitcoin at just -0.07. That number effectively removes it from serious consideration as a directional signal.
T-bill issuance, however, has held a +0.80 correlation with Bitcoin across the same four-year period. For a notoriously volatile asset like Bitcoin, that reading carries real weight.
Analysts are now paying closer attention to how Treasury market activity channels liquidity into broader risk appetite.
The Four-Year Timeline That Makes T-Bill Issuance Hard to Ignore
The case for T-bill issuance as a Bitcoin signal is built on a timeline that stretches back to late 2021. Bitblaze noted that issuance peaked around that time, and Bitcoin soon followed with its own cycle top.
When issuance began falling through 2022, Bitcoin crashed in the months that came after.
The connection held again in mid-2023, when T-bill issuance bottomed out alongside Bitcoin’s price floor. From that low point, both began climbing in tandem, with Bitcoin trailing the issuance trend by a visible lag.
Through 2024 and into 2025, rising issuance continued to pull Bitcoin higher with that same delayed rhythm.
Then in late 2024, T-bill issuance peaked once more. As early 2026 arrived, issuance started declining, and Bitcoin’s price weakened in step.
Bitblaze summed it up directly: “When the blue line goes up, BTC follows with a delay. When it rolls over, BTC struggles.” The four-year record now has traders watching Treasury issuance schedules as closely as any on-chain metric.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty jumped about 15% to 144.4 trillion on Feb. 20, according to CoinWarz data, reversing an 11% drop earlier this month that marked the sharpest decline since China’s 2021 mining ban.
The earlier decline followed a sharp drop in hash rate after severe winter storms swept across much of the United States, disrupting power grids and forcing miners offline. In late January, Foundry USA, the largest mining pool by hash rate, briefly saw its computing power fall to about 198 exahashes per second from nearly 400 EH/s, before recovering.
Hash rate measures the total computing power securing the network, while mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks, about every two weeks, to keep block production near its 10-minute target.
As US miners restored operations after the storm, hash rate rebounded, prompting the latest upward difficulty adjustment.
While higher difficulty strengthens Bitcoin’s (BTC) network security, it also raises the computational effort required to earn block rewards, tightening margins for miners already facing cost pressures.
Related: Thirteen years after the first halving, Bitcoin mining looks very different in 2025
US miners monetize grid curtailments during winter storm
Although January’s winter storm forced some US Bitcoin miners offline, it didn’t necessarily erase revenue. Many participate in demand response programs or hold flexible power contracts, allowing them to pause mining and sell electricity back to the grid when prices spike.
“In January, our power infrastructure highlighted the flexibility of our operating model,” said Bruce Rodgers, chairman and CEO of Bitcoin miner LM Funding America.
According to a February report, the company curtailed operations during Winter Storm Fern and redirected contracted power to the grid, generating more than a quarter of its typical quarterly energy and curtailment revenue over a single weekend.
Canaan Inc., a Singapore-based mining hardware manufacturer with US operations, also said in its January production update that its US mining activities participated in power curtailments in storm-affected regions through coordination with site partners to help balance grid demand.
Since China’s 2021 mining crackdown, the United States has become the world’s largest Bitcoin-mining hub, hosting major operations in crypto-friendly states such as Texas and Georgia.
According to data from Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, the US accounts for over one-third of global Bitcoin hash rate.
Magazine: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?
More than $2.4 billion in crypto options are set to expire at 08:00 UTC today on Deribit, a positioning event that could inject fresh volatility into the market.
Summary
- Around $2.0B in Bitcoin and $404M in Ethereum contracts are set to roll off on Deribit, raising the potential for short-term volatility.
- Bitcoin’s put/call ratio of 0.59 and Ethereum’s 0.75 reflect constructive sentiment, with max pain at $70,000 for BTC and $2,050 for ETH.
- BTC faces resistance near $69,500–$70,000 and support at $65,000, while ETH must clear $2,000–$2,050 to confirm upside momentum.
According to Deribit data, $2 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options and $404 million in Ethereum (ETH) options will roll off.
🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.4B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: ~$2.0B notional | Put/Call: 0.59 | Max Pain: $70K$ETH: ~$404M notional | Put/Call: 0.75 | Max Pain: $2,050 Positioning skews call heavy across both assets, with… pic.twitter.com/pgl2z4ZGJ6
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) February 19, 2026
For Bitcoin, the put/call ratio stands at 0.59, signaling call-heavy positioning and a stronger upside skew. The max pain level is $70,000, slightly above current spot levels, suggesting price could gravitate toward that area into expiry.
Ethereum’s put/call ratio sits at 0.75, reflecting more balanced but still constructive positioning, with max pain at $2,050.
Large options expiries can trigger short-term volatility, especially with positioning skewed toward calls. With $2 billion in Bitcoin and over $400 million in Ethereum contracts expiring, dealer hedging around key strikes, notably $70,000 for BTC and $2,050 for ETH, could pin prices near those levels.
However, a decisive move beyond them may amplify momentum through gamma-driven flows, increasing the odds of a sharp breakout.
Crypto market prediction: Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin trades around $67,850 on the daily chart, attempting to stabilize after a sharp early-February sell-off that dragged price from the mid-$90,000s to a local low near $60,000. Since that flush, BTC has been consolidating between roughly $65,000 and $70,000.
Technically, price remains below the 50-day DEMA near $69,500, which now acts as immediate resistance. A sustained break above $69,500–$70,000 would open the door toward $72,000 and potentially the mid-$70,000 region.
On the downside, support sits around $65,000, followed by the psychological $60,000 level — the zone that previously attracted strong dip buying.
Momentum indicators show bearish pressure easing but not fully reversed. The Balance of Power histogram remains negative, though red bars are shrinking, signaling waning selling intensity. A decisive push toward the $70,000 max pain level could accelerate short-term flows tied to options hedging.
Ethereum (ETH) price prediction
Ethereum, meanwhile, trades near $1,958 after sliding from above $3,000 in January to a recent low around $1,900. The daily chart shows ETH attempting to form a base just below the $2,000 psychological level.
The RSI sits near 34, recovering from oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum remains fragile.
Immediate resistance is clustered between $2,000 and $2,050, notably close to the max pain level. A break above that zone could trigger a squeeze toward $2,200. Support lies near $1,900, with a deeper floor around $1,800.
With positioning skewed toward calls, particularly in Bitcoin, traders will be watching whether price gravitates toward max pain levels or breaks decisively as contracts expire, potentially setting the tone for the next directional move.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) leadership unveiled a concrete plan for an “innovation exemption” at ETHDenver Wednesday, signaling a pragmatic but cautious pathway for trading tokenized securities in U.S. markets.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins and SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce in Conversation by: — ETHDenver
– @HesterPeirce, SEC Commissioner
– @SECPaulSAtkins, 34th Chairman of the @SECgov
– @PallerJohn from @EthereumDenver, @opolis, @BufficornV & @SporkDao
"We are not looking to hurt or break anything, the… pic.twitter.com/KDE7NcXu7s
(@EthereumDenver) February 18, 2026
SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Commissioner Hester Peirce detailed an incremental framework that allows crypto companies to facilitate limited trading of blockchain-based traditional assets, effectively creating a regulatory sandbox for Real World Assets (RWAs).
Quick Takeaways
The Exemption Deal: The proposal allows issuers to collaborate with specialist transfer agents to whitelist token holders for onchain trading.
Volume Limits: The “innovation exemption” will likely include strict volume caps and temporary duration periods to test stability.
Market Demand: Tokenized stock interest is exploding.
Why The SEC Is Acting Now
The agency is playing catch-up with market reality. Over the last year, TradFi giants have aggressively moved toward blockchain settlement.
Nasdaq Nasdaq wants to update its rules so some stocks and exchange-traded products can exist in either a normal digital form or as blockchain-based tokens.
Trading would work the same way it does today.
The only difference is that blockchain technology would help handle record-keeping and settlement behind the scenes. is already seeking approval to trade tokenized equities alongside traditional stocks.
This follows the SEC’s January 2026 clarification, which established that the economic reality of an asset determines its status, not the technology used.
This regulatory clarity is crucial for product issuers, paving the way for even more major ETF launches and staking products from firms like Grayscale and Canary Capital.
Details on the ‘Incremental’ Approach
Don’t expect an overnight revolution. Commissioner Peirce described the exemption as a “modest” step, comparing the current state of tokenized securities to buying an “abandoned storage unit.”
“Tokenized securities are still securities,” Peirce reiterated. The new framework focuses on integrating technology without dismantling investor protections.
Under the plan, issuers can test novel platforms, likely DeFi Automated Market Makers (AMMs) on permissionless chains, provided they maintain strict compliance with disclosure and custody rules.
This measured approach contrasts sharply with other global jurisdictions.
While the U.S. attempts to integrate crypto rails, authorities elsewhere are clamping down, with Russia moving to block foreign crypto exchanges entirely.
What This Means For Traders
This is the green light for institutional-grade RWAs. If approved, this exemption bridges the gap between “crypto native” assets and traditional finance.
For traders, this signals that liquidity for tokenized treasuries and equities will likely move on-chain in a regulated manner.
This is particularly bullish for ledgers optimized for RWA operations, a sector where XRP is currently aggressive in establishing infrastructure.
However, risks remain. Regulatory experts warn that “synthetic” tokenized securities, those not directly sponsored by the issuer, could be classified as security-based swaps, carrying higher counterparty risks.
It is a stark reminder of the risks noted by Christine Lagarde regarding digital assets operating without clear frameworks.
Expect formal rulemaking for these crypto capital-raising pathways by mid-2026.
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The post SEC Commissioners Outline ‘Incremental’ Path for Tokenized Securities Frameworks appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto markets have erased nearly $1 trillion in value over the past month, yet parts of the industry tied to infrastructure and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) are telling a different story. Tokenized Treasurys are expanding, venture firms are still raising capital and Bitcoin-focused companies are consolidating their footprints.
This week’s Crypto Biz looks at the widening gap between spot markets and capital formation — from Nakamoto’s $107 million acquisition spree to Dragonfly’s new $650 million fund, the continued rise of tokenized RWAs and why Paradigm says Bitcoin miners may have a growing role in stabilizing the power grid.
Nakamato to acquire two Bitcoin companies for $107 million
Bitcoin holding company Nakamoto has agreed to acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management in a combined $107 million deal, expanding its footprint across Bitcoin media, events and financial services.
Under the terms of the agreement, investors in BTC Inc and UTXO will receive 363,589,819 shares of Nakamoto common stock. The shares are priced at $1.12 under a call option structure, which is well above Nakamoto’s current trading price of about $0.30.
The transaction brings Bitcoin Magazine and the annual Bitcoin Conference under Nakamoto’s umbrella, while adding UTXO’s asset management and advisory business to the company’s portfolio.
Dragonfly closes $650 million fund
Despite a broader shake-up in crypto venture capital, Dragonfly Capital has closed its fourth fund at $650 million, signaling continued institutional appetite for blockchain infrastructure plays.
The firm indicated it is increasingly focused on financial products built on blockchain rails, including payment systems, stablecoin networks, lending markets and tokenized real-world assets. The strategy reflects a wider pivot among investors toward revenue-generating infrastructure rather than speculative token launches.
“This is the biggest meta shift I can feel in my entire time in the industry,” said Dragonfly general partner Tom Schmidt, describing the transition toward onchain finance and tokenized capital markets.
Tokenized RWA market expands despite crypto downturn
While broader crypto markets remain under pressure, tokenized real-world assets continue to gain traction, highlighting steady demand for onchain yield products.
The total value of tokenized RWAs has climbed about 13.5% over the past 30 days, according to RWA.xyz data. Over the same period, the broader crypto market has lost about $1 trillion in value. Much of the RWA growth has been driven by tokenized US Treasurys and private credit, though tokenized stocks are also gaining traction.
The divergence underscores how tokenized fixed-income products continue to attract capital even during periods of market stress, positioning RWAs as one of the more resilient segments of the digital asset economy.
Paradigm reiterates Bitcoin mining’s role in energy stabilization
Venture firm Paradigm is making the case that Bitcoin mining can serve as a flexible power load on the grid, potentially helping balance electricity demand at a time when local energy sources are being constrained by rapid AI data center development.
In a recent report, Paradigm argued that Bitcoin miners are well-positioned to absorb excess generation during low-demand periods and scale back when the grid is strained. That flexibility, Paradigm suggests, could make mining a useful partner for utilities facing peak-load challenges.
The idea isn’t entirely new, but it’s getting renewed attention as pressure grows on power systems from both decarbonization goals and rising overall electricity use tied to AI. Whether miners can actually deliver that flexibility at scale will depend on contracts with grid operators and the economics of energy markets, two areas with many moving parts.
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XRP price is hovering near $1.42 as thinning liquidity and repeated tests of the $1.30 support level raise the risk of a breakdown.
Summary
- XRP is down 25% in 30 days and remains below major resistance.
- On-chain data shows declining USD and XRP liquidity, increasing fragility.
- $1.30 is the critical support level to watch.
XRP traded at $1.42 at press time, down 0.7% in the last 24 hours. Over the past week, price has ranged between $1.35 and $1.64, with sellers capping rebounds near the upper end of that band.
The recent correction has been sharp. After a 25% decline over the last 30 days, XRP (XRP) is now 61% below its July 2025 peak of $3.65. As lower highs continue to form on the daily chart, the overall structure remains weak.
In derivatives markets, positioning is relatively stable. CoinGlass data shows futures volume up 0.96% to $3.75 billion, while open interest slipped 0.43% to $2.36 billion. That mix suggests traders are active but not aggressively increasing leverage.
Liquidity compression adds fragility
A Feb. 20 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor The Alchemist 9 reviewed three indicators: Binance exchange inflows, USD liquidity (MAG-XRP), and XRP liquidity (MAG-XRP).
During a previous rally phase, exchange inflows spiked sharply. Large inflows usually mean tokens are moving onto exchanges, which can signal potential sell pressure. In that instance, the spike occurred before a period of strong volatility and a major price expansion.
USD liquidity measures the capital depth supporting XRP markets. When XRP rallied, USD liquidity expanded and helped sustain the move. Recently, liquidity has been declining. With less capital depth in the order book, the price becomes more sensitive to sudden selling.
XRP liquidity tracks token-side availability. Before the earlier breakout, XRP liquidity compressed significantly. That reduction in active supply aligned with the start of the upward move. Now, XRP liquidity is trending lower again, resembling those earlier pre-expansion conditions.
At present, exchange inflows are moderate, but both USD and XRP liquidity are contracting. This creates a thinner market structure. In thin conditions, breaks of support or resistance often trigger sharper moves.
These metrics do not predict direction on their own, but they highlight rising volatility risk.
XRP price technical analysis
The $1.30 level is the key short-term support. It marks the lower boundary of recent consolidation. Price has repeatedly tested this range.
While rebounds followed, repeated touches often weaken demand. A daily close below $1.30 may lead to accelerated selling in a thin market.
Lower highs are still visible in the daily structure. The 50-day moving average serves as trend resistance, and XRP is trading below it. Bollinger Bands are tightening, showing price compression. This often precedes a strong move once support or resistance breaks.
The relative strength index is hovering between 35 and 45, reflecting limited bullish momentum. With attempts to push above 50 having failed, there is no clear bullish divergence at this stage.
If $1.30 holds and price reclaims $1.40 to $1.45, momentum could improve, opening room toward $1.50 to $1.60. If $1.30 breaks on a daily close, the next downside targets sit near $1.20 to $1.25, followed by $1.10 to $1.15 if selling pressure intensifies.
Polymarket has acquired Dome, a Y Combinator-backed startup that is building a unified API solution for developers to access and build across multiple prediction market platforms.
Summary
- Polymarket has acquired Y Combinator-backed startup Dome.
- Dome offers a unified API for cross-platform prediction market access.
- It has raised $500,000 from Y Combinator and $4.7 million in seed funding.
The acquisition was confirmed by both companies in a Feb. 19 post on X, though neither side shared details about Dome’s future roadmap within Polymarket or how the team will be integrated. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
According to details from Y Combinator, Dome was part of its Fall 2025 cohort and is developing a unified API for prediction markets through a single integration layer, where “developers can access live and historical data.”
“Dome makes it simple to trade, embed market data into products, and deploy strategies across multiple platforms through one interface,” it said.
Dome raised $500,000 from Y Combinator and secured a further $4.7 million in seed funding, according to details shared on the X profile of co-founder Kunal Roy, who, alongside Kurush Dubash, previously served as founding engineers at Alchemy.
“We’re obsessed with prediction markets and want to have the biggest impact in the space. There’s no better place to do that than Polymarket.” Dubash wrote on X.
Besides QCEX, a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse licensed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which Polymarket acquired in a bid to re-enter the country, Dome marks the company’s first official acquisition focused on developer infrastructure.
Since it was greenlighted by the commission to operate an intermediated trading platform, Polymarket has secured multiple major partnerships with media brands like Yahoo Finance and Google Finance, alongside sports organizations such as Major League Soccer and the National Hockey League.
Last month, the company partnered with Parcl to launch a prediction market tied to real estate trends. It has also expanded onto the Solana blockchain through an integration with Jupiter and was recently added to the MetaMask mobile app, widening its retail distribution.
Bitcoin’s next major leg up could hinge on artificial intelligence stocks becoming excessively overvalued in the eyes of investors, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.
“It could be that the AI stocks eventually just peak, they get so silly big that they can’t get realistically much higher,” Alden told Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Thursday.
When an asset’s price rises to a level where further gains are harder to justify, capital often moves into other opportunities with more potential upside.
With Bitcoin (BTC) down almost 46% from its October all-time high of $126,100, Alden suggests it could be a beneficiary of that rotation.
Nvidia may be the “most important stock” in US, says exec
Some financial analysts are questioning whether the largest AI stocks will keep up their momentum in 2026. Albion Financial Group chief investment officer Jason Ware recently told Fox Business that he expects GPU chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), the largest company on the Nasdaq stock exchange by market capitalization, to have “another great quarter,” but asked whether it will “be good enough.”
“We all know they are the most concentrated, obvious winner in the AI build out. Can that growth continue in a way that supports the stock moving higher?”
Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock price is up 35.48% over the past 12 months, according to Google Finance, and Ware said that it is “probably the most important company and most important stock in America in the market.”
The rise of investor interest in AI means that Bitcoin is now “competing for capital” in a way it never has before, Bitcoin developer Mark Carallo said on Thursday.
Bitcoin only needs a “marginal amount” of new demand
However, Alden said Bitcoin wouldn’t need a significant wave of capital to move higher. “It only takes a marginal amount of new demand to come in,” Alden said, adding that long-term holders essentially “put the floor in” as short-term traders rotate out.
“The coins rotate from fast money hands to strongly held hands; they are really not going to want to part with it unless it goes up like 5X or more, that kind of buyer,” she said.
Bitcoin is trading at $67,849 at the time of publication, down 24.49% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Related: Bitcoin mining difficulty rebounds 15% as US miners recover from winter outages
Alden said she does not expect a quick, near-term surge in Bitcoin’s price.
“Bitcoin rarely makes V-shape bottoms outside COVID stimulus-type events,” she said, adding that it “normally it hits a low level then goes sideways for quite a while.”
“I think we’re in more of a grind,” Alden said, adding that it may move $10,000 lower or $20,000 lower, and it is still in that “grinding part.”
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum: BIP-360 co-author
As Bitcoin struggles to hold $67,000, options markets are flashing warning signs as traders aggressively bid up downside protection to hedge against a potential capitulation event.
By early morning, UTC, BTC had climbed 1% over 24 hours to trade near $67,000, recovering from an uneasy dip below the $66,000 handle.
The setup remains precarious. Even as price action steadies, the average U.S. ETF investor is nursing a stinging 20% paper loss, with a cost basis near $84,000. This fragility comes after a brutal 47% drawdown from the October 2025 highs.
- BTC steadies near $67K, but options skew remains bearish.
- Average ETF investor sits on a 20% unrealized loss.
- Private credit stress (Blue Owl) adds macro headwinds.
While recent reports indicate Abu Dhabi government funds bought $1 billion in BTC, while BlackRock doubled down on mining infrastructure, signaling continued institutional appetite, the broader retail market remains skittish. Investors are haunted by the prospect of a complete washout.
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Are We Facing Capitulation?
Jake Ostrovskis of trading firm Wintermute notes that traders are now “paying for insurance,” buying puts to cap downside risk while limiting their upside participation. This defensiveness aligns with harsh statistical realities.
The leverage washout has been severe, with Bitcoin recently hitting -2.88 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average—an anomaly unseen in a decade according to VanEck analysis.
Contagion fears are actively resurfacing. Crypto lender Blockfills froze withdrawals after a $75 million lending loss, echoing the collapses of 2022.
Simultaneously, traditional markets are flashing red: private credit giant Blue Owl fell 6% after curbing redemptions. With Fed minutes recently warning of macro headwinds, risk-off behavior is dominating the narrative.
Despite the gloom, huge divergence exists in equities. Bitcoin miners CleanSpark and MARA rallied 6%, outperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 which slid 0.6%.
Discover: The best crypto presales on the market
What Happens Next for BTC Price?
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is fiercely defending the $66,000-$68,000 zone. If this level fails, the bearish triangle pattern suggests a slide toward $60,000 or even $55k, according to CryptoQuant.
However, alternate scenarios exist. Arthur Hayes points to treasury liquidity as a potential savior for risk assets.
Furthermore, long-term confidence hasn’t evaporated; Trump insiders recently confirmed a $1 million target, suggesting whales may view this dip as a generational accumulation zone.
JUST IN: — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) February 18, 2026
Eric Trump says Bitcoin will reach $1 million.
"I've never been more bullish on Bitcoin in my life." pic.twitter.com/niJH5ILfh9
For now, bulls will be hoping for a swift run back to $84k to give the ETF customers confidence.
The post Bitcoin Holds Near $67K as Traders Pay Up for Crash Protection in Options Markets appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has traded in a narrow corridor, effectively flinging up a question mark over the next directional thrust for the market. The past week has seen the benchmark crypto oscillate between roughly $65,900 and $70,500, a range that has left traders parsing for catalysts amid a broader risk-off climate. While momentum has oscillated, the risk of a sudden liquidation cascade remains a live concern: a modest rally could force a wave of short-covering in futures, squeezing risk assets higher and drawing new buyers back into the market. Against this backdrop, the network’s fundamentals have shown resilience, even as macro data continues to shape sentiment.
Key takeaways
- A 4.3% rise to about $69,600 could trigger more than $600 million in forced liquidations on short BTC futures, according to liquidation heatmaps. This dynamic underscores how quickly sentiment can flip on a price move.
- Hashrate has rebounded toward multi-week highs, with the seven-day average hovering near 1,100 exahashes per second, challenging earlier fears that miners were diverting capacity away from BTC toward other sectors.
- The BIP-360 proposal aims to bolster long-term security by enabling post-quantum protection through a backwards-compatible soft fork, addressing concerns about quantum threats while preserving on-chain privacy until spending.
- Macro data in the United States showed slower growth than expected, with Q4 2025 GDP at an annualized 1.4%, while inflation remained persistent, complicating expectations for near-term rate cuts and potentially nudging traders toward on-chain hedges.
- Futures funding dynamics show continuing pressure from bears, with periods of negative funding and persistent undercurrents that keep the market sensitive to any upside surprise that could trigger a short squeeze.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $NVDA
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Positive. A rally toward the $69,600 area could force substantial short liquidations and tilt momentum back toward bulls.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold.
Market context: The market sits at a crossroads where macro weakness and on-chain resilience collide: macro data suggests a slower economy and sticky inflation, while the Bitcoin network shows signs of structural strength through rising hashrate and post-quantum security planning, a combination that could set up a short squeeze if price action turns decisively higher.
Why it matters
The immediate price action for Bitcoin is heavily tethered to traders’ expectations about liquidity and leverage in the futures market. When the price nudges, as it did toward the $69,600 region, liquidations—especially on short positions—become a dominant driver of momentum. In recent cycles, a sharp move higher from a tight range has repeatedly triggered a cascade of liquidations, squeezing out speculative bets and luring fresh capital back into the market. This mechanism is particularly potent when the market trades below psychologically important levels and a sudden uptick can trigger a cascade that shifts market psychology from pessimism to renewed risk appetite.
On the fundamental side, the resurgence of network hashrate to around 1,100 exahashes per second signals that participants remain confident enough to invest in BTC mining hardware despite external price pressures. This resilience is notable because it counters early fears that mining capacity might drain away toward other sectors, including AI. The reacceleration in hashrate contributes to a sense of on-chain security and network durability, factors that historically underpin longer-term valuations rather than short-term price skews.
Another dimension of the story is the technical roadmap embodied by BIP-360, a proposal designed to address post-quantum security risks without disrupting current operations. By safeguarding the spend-path and concealing public keys on-chain until spend time, this plan reduces the potential exposure to quantum computing threats while preserving privacy in ordinary conditions. If such a soft fork progresses smoothly, it could restore some bullish confidence by clarifying the long-term security narrative for Bitcoin, helping to offset near-term macro headwinds.
Meanwhile, macro data remains a headwind for many traditional assets. The United States posted GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 at an annualized rate of 1.4%, below expectations, a development that tends to sap risk appetite in equities and dampen immediate expectations for aggressive monetary easing. Coupled with inflation data that showed the PCE price index excluding food and energy rising 0.4% month over month, investors have had to recalibrate their outlooks for rate trajectories. In this environment, on-chain markets can appear attractive to macro traders seeking uncorrelated or counter-cyclical exposure, even as the total market risk remains elevated.
Another layer to consider is the broader risk-off mood evident in traditional markets, including the S&P 500 and gold. As equities waver, gold has emerged as a potential hedge, but the relative stock-bond dynamic remains unsettled. The trading landscape—characterized by muted upside momentum yet persistent volatility—suggests that Bitcoin could act as a catalyst for a broader reallocation if fundamental improvements align with a technical breakout above key levels like $70,000.
In terms of funding dynamics, BTC perpetual futures have shown a mix of negative and neutral readings in recent sessions. This indicates that bears have remained committed to their positions even as price tests important supports. The combination of tighter funding and a risk-off tilt has kept upside momentum in check, even as the network-side improvements create a foundation for possible reversals should liquidity and sentiment align in favor of bulls.
For investors watching the space, the question remains whether this confluence of macro weakness, on-chain resilience, and a clearer security roadmap can coalesce into a sustainable rally or whether the market will continue to drift in a wide range until a new catalyst emerges. In the near term, the path of least resistance may hinge on the balance between fear of macro risks and the lure of a short squeeze driven by liquidations and forced unwindings on the downside bets.
In sum, Bitcoin remains at a pivotal juncture. The combination of a rebuilt hashrate, a tangible post-quantum roadmap, and an expected price re-pricing driven by liquidations could tilt sentiment in favor of bulls, but only if macro catalysts align and the market can sustain buying interest above critical thresholds. As traders monitor the interplay between on-chain fundamentals and macro headlines, the next move could redefine the near-term trajectory for BTC and potentially ripple through the broader crypto complex.
What to watch next
- Watch for a move back above $70,000 and the subsequent response in long vs. short positioning in BTC futures.
- Track the seven-day hashrate trend toward or above 1,100 EH/s and any updates on the deployment or consensus around BIP-360.
- Monitor U.S. macro releases, including GDP and PCE data, for potential shifts in risk appetite and liquidity conditions.
- Observe funding rates on BTC perpetual futures for signs of shifting trader sentiment or emerging short squeezes.
- Follow ETF flows and commentary around the Bitcoin investment vehicle landscape for potential liquidity influx or withdrawal pressures.
Sources & verification
- CoinGlass liquidation heatmap estimates for a move toward $69,600, illustrating potential short BTC futures liquidations exceeding $600 million.
- U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2025 at 1.4% annualized, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
- U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index ex food and energy rising 0.4% month over month, contributing to the inflation backdrop.
- HashrateIndex seven-day hashrate data showing a recovery to around 1,100 EH/s.
- BIP-360 post-quantum security framework and its intended soft-fork approach for hiding public keys on-chain until spending time.
- BTC perpetual futures funding rate observations from market data providers, including notes on recent negative funding periods.
Bitcoin price dynamics and network resilience
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is navigating a delicate phase where on-chain security fundamentals converge with macro headwinds to shape the near-term path of least resistance. The range-bound price action has left the market vulnerable to abrupt shifts driven by leveraged positions, but it is precisely this dynamic that can catalyze swift reversals when liquidity returns and short positions are forced to unwind. CoinGlass estimates suggest that a move to around $69,600 could unleash substantial short liquidations, potentially flipping sentiment from fear to momentum if buyers reenter with conviction. This interplay between price, leverage, and liquidity remains a defining feature of the current market backdrop.
Beyond price, the on-chain story has gained clarity. The seven-day average hashrate has climbed back toward the high end of recent ranges, signaling ongoing mining activity and network resilience even in the face of price pressure. While early concerns that miners would pivot away from BTC toward other sectors have cooled, the resilience of hashrate underscores a broader risk-reward calculus: the network’s security and stability continue to be a central factor for long-term investors evaluating BTC’s role in diversified portfolios. The BIP-360 proposal further reinforces this narrative by addressing post-quantum threats through a backwards-compatible mechanism, significantly reducing the risk posed by quantum computing to on-chain security while preserving user privacy until spend moment.
Market participants are also weighing macro data that remains less than supportive of a rapid risk-on rebound. The GDP print and inflation metrics paint a picture of a still-fragile macro environment, where the quest for yield remains tempered and risk assets require a clear catalyst. In such an environment, Bitcoin’s potential for a short squeeze depends on a combination of technical breakouts, improved on-chain fundamentals, and a shift in risk sentiment—a trifecta that could redraw the balance of power between bears and bulls in the months ahead. Traders will be watching for sustained buying pressure above key levels, and the emergence of a decisive narrative that can both reassure existing holders and entice new entrants into the market.
As the market continues to digest these inputs, the path forward will likely hinge on how quickly macro volatility evolves and how effectively the Bitcoin ecosystem communicates its security and scalability roadmap to a broader audience. The balance between fear and opportunity remains delicate, but the confluence of improved network metrics, post-quantum safeguards, and the potential for liquidity-driven reversals means the coming weeks could redefine Bitcoin’s standing in the risk spectrum. For now, observers should remain cautious but attentive to any shift that could unleash a new cycle of momentum in this evolving market.
TLDR:
- SBI Ripple Asia and AWAJ signed an MOU to provide XRPL technical support to financial startups in Asia.
- AWAJ already holds separate partnership agreements with JETRO and Ripple, expanding its regional influence.
- Support under the deal covers system design, security checks, and connections to existing financial infrastructure.
- The initiative targets globally scalable XRPL use cases, with Japan positioned as the development launchpad.
SBI Ripple Asia has signed a formal memorandum of understanding with Asia Web3 Alliance Japan. The partnership targets startups building financial services on blockchain technology.
Both organizations will work together to provide structured technical support. This marks a key step in expanding XRP Ledger adoption within Asia’s growing web3 sector.
SBI Ripple Asia and AWAJ Formalize Technical Support Framework for Blockchain Startups
The agreement focuses on supporting businesses that want to deploy financial services using XRPL.
SBI Ripple Asia brings deep experience in international remittance and payments infrastructure. AWAJ, meanwhile, operates as a venture studio connecting startups with investors and institutional partners.
According to the announcement, support will cover system configuration, technical design, and security verification. Each engagement will be handled through individual contracts between the parties involved. The scope of support will vary case by case.
SBI Ripple Asia is headquartered in Minato-ku, Tokyo, and is led by Representative Director Masashi Okuyama.
AWAJ is based in Chuo-ku, Tokyo, and is represented by Hinza Asif. The two organizations say this collaboration is premised specifically on the XRP Ledger.
AWAJ recently signed separate agreements with the Japan External Trade Organization and Ripple. Those deals have positioned it as a central node in Japan’s web3 ecosystem. The new MOU with SBI Ripple Asia adds another layer to that growing network.
XRPL Positions as Infrastructure of Choice for Asia’s Financial Innovation Push
The announcement highlights growing interest in blockchain-based financial services across the region.
However, it also acknowledges real barriers: regulatory complexity, security requirements, and business viability concerns. SBI Ripple Asia plans to help startups navigate all of these.
Technical support under this initiative will primarily reach startups in AWAJ’s innovation programs. These programs are designed to take early-stage ideas through proof-of-concept and into commercialization.
AWAJ describes its model as “hands-on,” going beyond simple networking.
The organizations say the goal extends beyond Japan. They aim to develop financial use cases on XRPL that can scale globally. Japan, in their framing, becomes the origin point for these internationally applicable solutions.
Per the official announcement, the partnership also envisions connection with existing financial systems, not just new blockchain infrastructure.
This practical framing sets it apart from more theoretical web3 initiatives. The emphasis stays on whether technology can function as a real financial service.
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