The word “bitcoin” or any other mention of crypto will get you banned from the OpenClaw Discord. Not for spam, not for shilling, but just for saying it.

Peter Steinberger, the Austrian developer behind OpenClaw, the open-source AI agent framework that has surged past 200,000 GitHub stars since its release in late January, has enforced a blanket no-crypto rule on the project’s community server.

A user who recently mentioned bitcoin in passing — in the context of using block height as a clock for a multi-agent benchmark, not promoting a token — was blocked immediately.

Steinberger was clear about the ban in a follow-up reply to the X post.

We have strict server rules that you accepted whe you entered the server. No crypto mention whatsoever is one of them, he said.

The rule comes after what happened in late January, when crypto nearly destroyed the project from the inside.

The trouble started after AI powerhouse Anthropic sent Steinberger a trademark notice over the project’s original name, Clawdbot, which the AI company argued was too close to Anthropic’s own “Claude.” Steinberger agreed to rebrand.

But in the brief seconds between releasing his old GitHub and X handles and securing the new ones, scammers seized both accounts and began promoting a fake token called $CLAWD on Solana.

That token hit $16 million in market capitalization within hours. When Steinberger publicly denied any involvement, it crashed over 90%, wiping out late buyers. Early snipers walked away with profits, and Steinberger was left fielding harassment from traders who blamed him for not endorsing the token.

“To all crypto folks: please stop pinging me, stop harassing me,” he wrote on X at the time. “I will never do a coin. Any project that lists me as coin owner is a SCAM.”

“You are actively damaging the project.”

Security researchers at blockchain firm SlowMist and independent auditors found hundreds of OpenClaw instances exposed to the public internet with no authentication, partly because the tool’s localhost trust model breaks when run behind a reverse proxy.

Separately, a researcher found 386 malicious “skills” — add-on scripts for OpenClaw agents — published on the project’s skill repository, many targeting crypto traders specifically.

Steinberger has since joined OpenAI to lead its personal agents division, with OpenClaw moving to an independent open-source foundation. The project is thriving.

But the crypto ban on Discord stays, leaving a scar from a weeks-long episode that showed how fast speculative token culture can engulf a legitimate software project and nearly bury it.

Cryptocurrency flows to suspected trafficking services jumped 85% in 2025.

Cryptocurrency payments to suppliers of fentanyl precursor chemicals began falling in mid-2023, months before overdose deaths declined.

This pattern suggests that blockchain data may provide an early signal of disruptions in the illicit drug supply, according to a new report from Chainalysis.

Early Disruption in Fentanyl Supply

The blockchain data company observed a measurable drop in on-chain payments linked to vendors of chemicals commonly used in fentanyl production well before official mortality statistics reflected a reduction in fatalities. Because overdose data is typically released with delays due to investigation and certification processes, the earlier contraction in crypto transactions points to a potential three-to-six-month lead time between supply chain stress and public health outcomes.

The findings suggest that tracking blockchain payments to precursor suppliers could give law enforcement and policymakers an early signal of changes in synthetic opioid supply, alongside traditional measures like drug seizures and overdose death data.

The report also documented a sharp rise in cryptocurrency activity tied to suspected human trafficking networks. In 2025, crypto flows to identified services increased 85% year over year, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. According to Chainalysis, much of that activity is concentrated in Southeast Asia, where trafficking operations overlap with scam compounds, online gambling platforms, and Chinese-language money laundering networks that operate largely through Telegram.

The firm identified four primary categories of suspected crypto-facilitated trafficking – Telegram-based “international escort” services believed to traffic individuals, “labor placement” agents recruiting workers for scam compounds, prostitution networks, and child sexual abuse material (CSAM) vendors.

Payment patterns vary by category. “International escort” services and prostitution networks rely predominantly on stablecoins, which offer price stability and ease of conversion. CSAM vendors have historically favored bitcoin but are increasingly using alternative Layer 1 networks as well as privacy-focused assets such as Monero, and often turn to instant exchangers that allow rapid swaps without know-your-customer requirements. The company said these changes complicate tracing efforts but still leave observable patterns on-chain.

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Infrastructure Behind Crypto-Based Exploitation

Transaction size data indicates differing operational structures. Over 48% of transfers associated with Telegram-based “international escort” services were recorded to be more than $10,000, indicating organized operations functioning at scale. Prostitution networks demonstrated a higher concentration of transactions between $1,000 and $10,000, which is consistent with mid-tier agency activity.

Meanwhile, payments to “labor placement” agents recruiting for scam compounds typically fell within the same $1,000 to $10,000 range. This trend aligns with advertised fees for transporting workers across borders. Victims recruited through these channels are often coerced into operating online fraud schemes under threat of violence, according to prior reporting cited in the analysis.

The report also found that some escort and recruitment services are integrated with Chinese-language money laundering networks and “guarantee” platforms that rapidly convert stablecoins into local currencies, thereby reducing exposure to potential freezes.

In the CSAM sector, operators increasingly use subscription-based models, which often charge less than $100 per month, to generate recurring revenue. Chainalysis also observed overlap between CSAM networks and online extremist communities, as well as the use of US-based web infrastructure to host surface websites while operators may be located abroad.

Bitcoin’s monthly performance pattern has become a focal point for investors trying to gauge the near-term trajectory of the market. An economist’s simple metric — counting how many months within a rolling two-year window produced gains — has sparked renewed debate about the odds of higher prices in the months ahead. The analysis comes as BTC has pulled back from peaks earlier in the year and as traders weigh a mix of seasonal tendencies, on-chain signals, and sentiment indicators that oscillate between caution and the prospect of a rebound. In 2025, BTC showed gains in six of the 12 months, a backdrop that shapes expectations for a market that remains highly sensitive to macro developments and liquidity conditions.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) longer-run pattern shows that 50% of the last 24 months included positive monthly performance, a signal cited by economist Timothy Peterson to suggest a high probability of higher prices within the near term.
• Peterson’s method implies an approximately 88% chance that BTC will be higher 10 months from the reference point, highlighting how simple month-count metrics can inform timing debates in a volatile market.
• Polymarket currently assigns a 17% probability to December becoming Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, narrowly trailing November’s 18% odds.
• November remains historically strong for BTC, with CoinGlass data showing it as the best performing month on average since 2013, delivering substantial gains on many occasions.
• BTC was trading near $68,173 at the time of reporting, about a quarter below its level at the start of the year, underscoring the scale of retracement and the potential for a range-bound setup into year-end.
• Market sentiment appears mixed: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index signaled “Extreme Fear,” while sentiment analytics firm Santiment noted a cooling of price-predictive chatter, signaling a move toward neutral territory.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: The data-driven debate unfolds as traders balance seasonal tendencies with a backdrop of cautious risk appetite. While one set of metrics points to upside potential, broader sentiment and liquidity considerations continue to weigh on positioning, making near-term moves more data-dependent than traditional catalysts alone.

Why it matters

The discussion around BTC’s month-to-month cadence matters because it reframes how investors think about timing in a market known for abrupt shifts. If the 24-month positive-month metric holds, the odds of a continuation of higher prices could tilt decisions toward positioning strategies that benefit from gradual upside rather than sharp, binary breakouts. The nuance matters for miners, traders, and institutions alike, because it suggests a probabilistic framework rather than a single price target. It also highlights how macro factors — such as liquidity cycles, macro risk sentiment, and regulatory signals — interact with seasonality to shape price expectations in a market where many participants rely on models that blend on-chain signals with traditional indicators.

The split among analysts adds texture to the risk assessment. Some optimists, like Michael van de Poppe, have cautioned that the near term could see a green week for BTC, pointing to potential candles that could buttress a broader rebound after a stretch of red months. Others, including veteran traders, have warned that a definitive bottom may not come quickly and suggested that a deeper or more drawn-out phase of weakness could precede a real recovery. In this tug-of-war, investors are watching not only price action but also how social sentiment evolves and whether institutional demand returns as volatility moderates.

Beyond Bitcoin’s price action, the narrative is influenced by how the market interprets data points from data providers and prediction markets. For instance, the December outlook on Polymarket reflects a probabilistic expectation rather than a verdict, with traders pricing in a non-trivial chance that the final month of the year outperforms others in 2026. Meanwhile, the long-run tail risk — often discussed in the context of macro liquidity and regulatory clarity — remains a factor that can alter the pace and composition of investor inflows or withdrawals. The interplay between these signals is what keeps BTC in a dynamic, data-driven environment rather than a static price path.

On-chain measurements and sentiment trackers add further texture. The Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of overall market mood, landed in a rare phase of extreme caution, underscoring the risk-off leaning prevailing in many corners of the crypto space. Yet, sentiment analytics outfit Santiment has noted a trend toward a more neutral stance as the crowd reduces speculative chatter around price predictions. This combination — cautious macro mood with subdued but stabilizing on-chain signals — helps explain why the market is watching for confirmatory catalysts that could turn pessimism into a more constructive price trajectory.

As traders parse these competing signals, the price backdrop remains a real-time constraint. BTC hovered around $68,173 at the time of publication, a level that sits noticeably below the year’s start and well under the all-time highs seen in late 2023 and early 2024. The current chapter is not about a single event but about a mosaic of indicators that could tip the balance toward a steadier ascent or a renewed period of consolidation. The breadth of opinions among seasoned traders reflects the broader reality: in a market as data-rich and narrative-driven as crypto, many of the strongest moves are born from a confluence of timing, sentiment, and macro liquidity rather than from any one signal alone.

In sum, the BTC narrative remains a study in contrasts — data points suggesting upside probability allied with cautionary sentiment and a price backdrop that invites patience. The coming weeks and months will test whether the 88% horizon implied by Peterson’s monthly-count framework materializes, or whether outcomes align more closely with the more conservative, risk-off mood reflected in short-term volatility measures. For market participants, the takeaway is to blend probabilistic thinking with disciplined risk management, rather than rely on a single data point to forecast the next leg of Bitcoin’s journey.

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What to watch next

• December’s outcome for BTC’s performance on Polymarket’s “best month in 2026” event (current odds: 17%), and whether November’s 18% edge holds.
• BTC’s price trajectory toward or away from the $70,000 level and how it interacts with the 10-month horizon referenced in Peterson’s metric.
• The evolution of market sentiment indicators, including the Fear & Greed Index and Santiment’s readings on sentiment normalization.
• On-chain activity and liquidity signals that could accompany a sustained price move, especially as macro factors influence risk appetite.

Sources & verification

• Timothy Peterson’s X post citing the 50% positive-month metric and the ~88% odds window: https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/2025275842394251560?s=20
• CoinGlass data on BTC’s 2025 monthly performance: https://www.coinglass.com/today
• Polymarket event page for “Bitcoin best month in 2026”: https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-best-month-in-2026
• Bitcoin price reference as of publication on CoinMarketCap: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index for market sentiment: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has traded within a data-rich framework that blends seasonal expectations with a skeptical sentiment backdrop. The 50% positive-month metric over the preceding 24 months, highlighted by Peterson in his X post, is not a price forecast but a probability-driven lens that can inform timing considerations. The implication that BTC has roughly an 88% chance of being higher in ten months is based on counting the number of positive months; such a metric is best viewed as one among many tools, not a standalone predictor. It underscores how revenue-focused and risk-managed investors may frame potential upside in a market known for abrupt swings.

Traders on prediction platforms see a nuanced picture for December. Polymarket’s pricing places a 17% probability on December becoming BTC’s best month of 2026, a signal that the market assigns to rare, outsized upside relative to other months, though still modest in absolute terms. November remains a benchmark; history shows it as the strongest calendar month for BTC on average since 2013, often delivering outsized gains. This historical context helps frame the December odds as part of a longer cycle rather than a stand-alone bet. The juxtaposition of seasonality against structural market fragility is why many market participants approach the next few weeks with hedged expectations.

From a price perspective, BTC hovered around $68,173 at press time, a level that sits well below the early-year peak and marks a sharp retracement from February’s ~$80,000 starting point. The pullback doesn’t negate the strategic value of the month-to-month dynamism; instead, it highlights the need for patience and disciplined risk controls as the market tests whether a base forms or if buyers should wait for a clearer signal. In this environment, the interplay between seasonal patterns and sentiment becomes particularly meaningful: a favorable November-to-December transition could set the stage for a more sustained move, but a reiteration of caution could prolong a period of consolidation as liquidity conditions remain sensitive to global macro developments.

Analysts remain divided on the near-term path. While some traders anticipate a green week for BTC and a potential extension of gains, others project further downside before a genuine bottom takes hold. The divergent views reflect a broader truth about crypto markets: price action is increasingly influenced by a combination of on-chain signals, probabilistic forecasting, and evolving investor psychology. The result is a market that rewards prudent risk management and flexible positioning, rather than single-factor bets. As the narrative evolves, investors will be watching not only price levels but also how sentiment metrics shift and whether predicted outcomes in prediction markets begin to align with actual market moves.

Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, which may be a strong sign that it will be higher than its current price in December, an economist said.

“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Saturday. In 2025, Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass.

Peterson explained that he uses the metric to count the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.

Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket are giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s (BTC) best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%.

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass.

Peterson’s forecast comes as Bitcoin’s price trades almost 25% below its level at the beginning of this year, at $68,173 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Analysts are divided on how the asset will perform in the near future. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said on Friday, “I would expect next week to be green for BTC.” “Finalizing this month with a massive candle and a streak of five red months,” he said.

Meanwhile, other analysts see more downside ahead. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine that Bitcoin’s “real bottom will not occur until October 2026.”

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Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 on Sunday, signaling extreme caution among investors.

However, crypto sentiment platform Santiment said on Friday that the “drying up” of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants is a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to “neutral” territory.

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