Solid Gains Expected, But Not Spectacular

Bitcoin Expected to Deliver Moderate Gains Over the Next Decade, Experts Say

While Bitcoin is projected to generate consistent returns over the next ten years, industry insiders suggest that spectacular year-on-year growth is unlikely. Instead, investors can anticipate a gradual, upward trajectory marked by lower volatility and steadier gains, as significant surges become less probable in the current market environment.

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, Bitcoin’s outlook remains optimistic for 2026, with expectations of a positive year ahead. Hougan reaffirmed his earlier forecast, which anticipates a gradual “10-year grind upward” with modest returns without extraordinary spikes. His comments follow Bitcoin’s recent rally to a new all-time high of approximately $125,100 in October, which he believed set the stage for continued growth.

Institutional Buying and Cycle Dynamics Shape the Market

Meanwhile, Sebastian Beau, Chief Investment Officer at ReserveOne, raised questions regarding the sustainability of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, noting the asset’s sharp decline from October’s peak to roughly $87,000—about a 30% drop. This fleeting decline has sparked debate on whether the cycle remains relevant or if a new paradigm is emerging. Some market analysts suggest the similarity between the current peak and previous cycle lows points to a potentially subdued year in 2026.

Hougan attributes the recent downturn partly to “fast-moving retail investors” preparing for the typical cycle downturn, leading to a rotation out of the market. Currently, Bitcoin trades at around $87,818, reflecting a 3.81% decline over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap.

He also highlighted that the slowing decline—down 30% rather than 60% seen in past cycles—is partly attributable to “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying,” which continues to underpin Bitcoin’s resilience.

However, some seasoned traders, such as Peter Brandt, remain cautious. Brandt recently predicted Bitcoin could dip as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, emphasizing the ongoing volatility and uncertain cycle dynamics.

Regulatory and Political Factors

Bitcoin’s early 2025 rally was partly driven by political developments, including Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, which initially fueled optimism about the asset’s prospects. Nonetheless, Hougan suggests that further major upside from the Trump administration is unlikely, citing clearer regulatory stances that have stabilized the market to some extent.

Both Hougan and Beau agree that the evolving regulatory environment has become more predictable, which may limit extreme volatility derived from political shifts. Despite this, the broader outlook remains cautiously optimistic, emphasizing steady, incremental growth rather than explosive gains.