TLDR:

• U.S. searches for ‘bitcoin to zero’ hit a Google Trends score of 100 in February 2026, a record high.
  
• Global searches for the same term peaked in August 2025 and have since dropped to as low as 38 by February.
  
• Similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 coincided with local Bitcoin price bottoms, but context has shifted.
  
• Google Trends measures relative interest, not raw volume, making the current spike harder to compare with past cycles.

‘Bitcoin to zero‘ searches in the U.S. surged to a record high in February 2026, as BTC slid toward $60,000. Google Trends data showed the term scored 100 on its relative interest scale this month.

The move followed a 50%-plus drawdown from Bitcoin’s October all-time high. Global searches for the same term, however, have been falling since peaking in August.

That split between domestic and worldwide data keeps the bottom signal mixed rather than conclusive.

U.S. Searches Hit Record Highs as Domestic Fear Builds

‘Bitcoin to zero’ searches in the U.S. reached their highest recorded level in February on Google Trends. The spike coincided directly with Bitcoin’s sharp decline toward the $60,000 price level.

U.S.-specific catalysts appear to be amplifying retail anxiety more than broader global sentiment. Tariff escalation, Iran tensions, and a domestic equity risk-off rotation have all weighed on investor mood.

Globally, the same search term peaked at a score of 100 back in August 2025. By February 2026, worldwide interest in the term had cooled to as low as 38.

That contrast between U.S. and global data points to fear that is regionally concentrated. Holders in Asia and Europe are navigating Bitcoin’s drawdown within an entirely different news environment.

Historically, similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 aligned with local price bottoms. Traders familiar with those cycles have often treated elevated fear searches as a contrarian buy indicator.

However, the current environment differs from those earlier periods in meaningful ways. Bitcoin’s mainstream visibility and retail base have expanded considerably since then.

The global cooling trend complicates any straightforward bottom call based on U.S. searches alone. When worldwide fear is declining while domestic fear is rising, the signal lacks international confirmation.

That does not eliminate the possibility of a local reversal, but it reduces conviction. A mixed bottom signal requires more evidence before the case becomes compelling.

Methodology and Market Context Keep the Signal Inconclusive

Google Trends measures relative interest on a scale of 0 to 100, not raw search volume. A score of 100 simply means the term reached its own peak within the selected time window.

It does not confirm that more people searched the term in absolute terms compared to 2022. Against a much larger Bitcoin user base today, that distinction carries real analytical weight.

Bitcoin’s U.S. retail audience has grown substantially since the last major bear market cycle. A relative spike measured against a higher baseline does not carry the same weight as before.

Retail fear is clearly elevated, but elevated fear alone does not guarantee a trend reversal. Analysts recommend pairing this data with on-chain metrics before drawing firm conclusions.

The absence of a matching global fear spike keeps the contrarian case incomplete as of February. U.S. retail anxiety is real and measurable, but it remains a regional rather than a universal signal.

Prior cycles where searches and price bottoms aligned featured more synchronized global sentiment. That synchronization is currently missing from the data.

The ‘bitcoin to zero’ search spike does confirm that U.S. retail pressure is building. Whether that pressure marks a durable floor or simply reflects localized panic remains unclear.

Market participants continue watching for additional on-chain and global sentiment confirmation. Until those signals align, the bottom call stays mixed.

According to former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor Raoul Pal, the answer depends less on sentiment and more on liquidity.

Raoul Pal says signals are beginning to align in a way that historically precedes explosive upside moves.

Is Bitcoin About to Reprice To $140,000 Far Sooner Than The Market Expects?

Raoul Pal argues that Bitcoin is currently trading at a “deep discount” to global liquidity conditions. In previous cycles, similar gaps between liquidity expansion and price have not been resolved gradually. They have closed violently.

“If that gap closes,” he suggests, Bitcoin does not grind higher — it snaps into a higher range.

At the center of Pal’s thesis is a potential liquidity inflection point in Q1 2026. Several macro forces are converging at once.

First, changes to bank regulations, particularly adjustments to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR). According to Pal, this may allow banks to absorb more government debt without constraining their balance sheets.

That effectively gives the US Treasury greater flexibility to monetize deficits, increasing system-wide liquidity.

Second, Treasury General Account (TGA) dynamics are in focus. Historically, when the TGA is drawn down, liquidity quickly flows back into markets. Pal believes that the process is likely to accelerate.

Layer on a weakening US dollar, often a signal of easier financial conditions, and expanding liquidity from China’s balance sheet, and the backdrop becomes more supportive for risk assets.

According to Pal, liquidity is already improving faster than markets are pricing in. His rough estimate? If Bitcoin were to realign with prevailing liquidity conditions, the price would be closer to $140,000.

“…[based on liquidity models, Bitcoin] should be closer to $140,000 [if historical relationships hold],” he said.

A move to $140,000 would represent a 106% increase in Bitcoin’s price from current levels.

Business Cycle Confirmation

Pal also points to forward-looking indicators tied to the business cycle, particularly the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). In his framework, financial conditions lead ISM by roughly nine months, with global liquidity following shortly after.

The data he tracks suggests ISM could strengthen meaningfully this year, signaling an improving growth environment. These data, listed below, could all contribute to rising confidence and lending activity.

• Fiscal stimulus
• Tax incentives for fixed asset investment
• Capital expenditure on data centers and energy infrastructure, and
• Potential mortgage rate relief

If growth expectations rise while liquidity expands, Bitcoin and other high-beta assets have historically outperformed.

The October 10 Overhang

Yet despite these improving conditions, Bitcoin has lagged. Pal traces that disconnect to the October 10 liquidation cascade, a structural event he believes damaged market plumbing.

Unlike traditional equity flash crashes, crypto lacks regulatory safeguards to cancel trades. During the cascade, forced deleveraging coincided with exchange API disruptions, temporarily removing market makers and liquidity providers. Prices fell further than fundamentals justified.

Pal speculates that exchanges may have stepped in to absorb forced selling, later unwinding positions algorithmically during peak liquidity hours.

Combined with widespread call-selling strategies clustered around the $100,000 strike, often tied to yield products, the result was sustained upside suppression.

However, he believes that the overhang is now fading.

The “Banana Zone” Setup

Pal refers to the final acceleration phase of a crypto cycle as the “Banana Zone” —a nonlinear repricing driven by liquidity, improving growth, and renewed capital inflows.

Before that phase begins, markets typically digest prior volatility and clear structural resistance levels. The $100,000 zone, he argues, is both psychological and structural. Once call-selling pressure eases and positioning remains cautious, the setup for an upside shock strengthens.

Liquidity, in Pal’s view, leads price. By the time consensus turns bullish, the move may already be underway.

If global refinancing pressures force further liquidity injections into the system, Bitcoin, which he describes as a “global liquidity sponge,” could respond quickly.

And if the gap between liquidity and price closes, $140,000 may not be a stretch target. It may simply be where the market was always headed.

Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed after CME futures speculators turned net bullish in April 2025. A similar positioning shift is resurfacing in 2026, raising the odds of a BTC price recovery in the coming weeks.

Key takeaways:

BTC futures, technicals hint at $85,000 price target

Non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders cut their net position to about -1,600 contracts from roughly +1,000 a month earlier, according to the CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report published last week.

In practice, this means that large speculators, including hedge funds and similar financial institutions, have shifted from net short to long, with bulls outnumbering bears on the CME.

The rapid net-short unwind implies that “smart money” added longs “with some urgency,” said analyst Tom McClellan, while pointing to two similar past swings that preceded Bitcoin price bottoms.

For instance, BTC’s price gained around 70% after a sharp dip in CME Bitcoin futures net shorts in April 2025. In 2023, BTC price rose by over 190% under similar futures market conditions.

As of February, the smart money swing is flashing once again, just as Bitcoin defends its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, the blue line), which has acted as a bear-market floor in most major drawdowns of the last decade.

On Sunday, BTC’s 200-week EMA was hovering around near $68,350.

The last time Bitcoin traded around this moving average during deep sell-offs (in 2015, 2018 and 2020), it eventually marked the end of the downtrend and the start of a new recovery phase.

Related: Bitcoin historical price metric sees $122K ‘average return’ over 10 months

Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) remains in oversold territory, a sign that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.

That further raises Bitcoin’s odds of recovering in the coming weeks. A decisive rebound from the 200-week EMA could trigger a run-up toward the 100-week EMA (the purple wave) at roughly $85,000 by April.

Bitcoin bulls aren’t out of the woods yet

McClellan cautioned that the smart money shift is “a condition, not a signal,” meaning Bitcoin could still slide from its current price levels before a durable low forms.

That may trigger the 2022 scenario, wherein BTC plunged by over 40% after breaking below its 200-week EMA despite similar oversold conditions.

A repeat of that 40% plunge in 2026 could result in BTC prices falling toward $40,000, or 60% from its record high of around $126,270.

Some analysts, including Kaiko, also see BTC potentially bottoming around $40,000–$50,000 based on its “four-year cycle” framework.