Crypto World
Bitcoin Price Metric Reveals $122K Average Return Over 10 Months
Bitcoin has drawn renewed attention from traders and analysts as data-driven signals suggest a potential upside path into 2027, even amid a recent stretch of muted sentiment. An informal metric developed by market economist Timothy Peterson points to an 88% probability that BTC/USD will be higher by early 2027, a claim grounded in monthly patterns dating back to 2011. If history repeats, the model implies a price near $122,000 per coin within ten months, positioning Bitcoin for what some view as an “average return” rather than a rapid meteoric rise. The narrative sits alongside a broader chorus of bullish commentary from major banks and market observers who continue to think Bitcoin can stage a substantial recovery in the coming year, even as risk-off currents persist across traditional markets.
Key takeaways
- An informal metric from Timothy Peterson suggests a roughly 88% chance BTC/USD will be higher by early 2027, based on historical frequency of positive months.
- Under this scenario, Bitcoin could reach about $122,000 per coin within ten months, which would equate to an “average return” given past performance since 2011.
- Despite a period of underperformance since late 2025, bullish forecasts remain active, with analysts highlighting inflection-point dynamics rather than precise price targets.
- Bernstein has surfaced a bulls-case target of around $150,000 for Bitcoin, underscoring continued institutional interest in a multiyear rally.
- Wells Fargo’s note flags potential capital inflows into Bitcoin and equities totaling about $150 billion by the end of March, suggesting further speculative appetite.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Positive. The convergence of upbeat forecasts and improving sentiment could support upside momentum for Bitcoin in the near term.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. While the setup leans toward upside, volatility and macro risk warrant a cautious stance until clearer directional signals emerge.
Market context: The market has been digesting a mix of technical signals and macro influences, with a notable divergence between short-term momentum and longer-horizon forecasts. The discussion around Bitcoin’s path centers on whether historical patterns can translate into a sustained rally despite periodic pullbacks and risk-on/risk-off cycles that characterize crypto liquidity and funding conditions.
Why it matters
The ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s trajectory sits at the intersection of on-chain behavior, macro liquidity, and evolving investor psychology. If Peterson’s 88% odds hypothesis holds, it would suggest that the crypto market has entered a phase where repeated positive monthly readings can precede a meaningful upside. The reference point of $122,000, anchored to a decade of price data, provides a tangible milestone that traders and risk managers can monitor against volatility spikes and pullbacks.
Institutional interest remains a persistent tailwind for the bull case. Bernstein’s recent analysis arguing for a $150,000 target signals that large-scale wealth and professional funds continue to view Bitcoin as a potential long-horizon hedge and return driver, not merely a speculative asset. At the same time, Wells Fargo’s note on potential inflows—citing a $150 billion expansion into Bitcoin and equities by the end of March—highlights the interplay between crypto markets and traditional asset streams. The combination of high-conviction targets and expected capital inflows underscores a continued re-pricing dynamic in which narrative and data-driven signals reinforce each other.
Nonetheless, the mood within the market remains fractured. Peterson’s own work cautions that the metric he discusses emphasizes inflection points rather than precise targets, and a survey cited in the report points to prevailing bearish sentiment in parts of the crypto ecosystem. The tension between a favorable long-term thesis and a wobbling near-term momentum is typical of a market navigating a transition from macro-tilted risk-off periods to periods of renewed speculative interest. In other words, the narrative is compelling, but the path to a sustained rally is likely to be choppy, with volatility continuing to reflect shifting risk appetites across both crypto and broader financial markets.
Beyond the headline forecasts, the story includes practical market dynamics that have featured in recent reporting. For example, even as some analysts flag upside potential, others point to recent price patterns and the episodic nature of Bitcoin’s momentum. There is also recognition that positive data points can coexist with caution about timing—investors are watching for concrete catalysts that could shift the trajectory from consolidation to a more pronounced up-leg. The crypto ecosystem has also seen episodes where large holders or “whales” participate in accumulation, offsetting sell pressure and contributing to sporadic surges in price. This pattern of selective accumulation has been noted in related coverage and remains a factor that traders monitor as they assess the probability of a sustained breakout. See for example commentary highlighting whale-driven V-shaped accumulation as a counterweight to sell-offs.
In this backdrop, the narrative remains nuanced: the macro backdrop is not uniformly bullish, but there is a persistent belief among a subset of market observers that Bitcoin’s longer-run risk-reward profile justifies continued interest. The expectation is that if the next few quarters deliver supportive price action and a stream of positive signals—on-chain activity, liquidity, and institutional participation—the market could sustain an upward drift that aligns with the optimism expressed by Bernstein and others. Meanwhile, the data points that have historically preceded rallies—such as a persistent sequence of higher months and improving on-chain metrics—will continue to be scrutinized as potential inflection signals rather than definitive price triggers.
Additional context comes from the broader conversation around crypto sentiment and risk appetite. The market’s mood can swing rapidly in response to macro news, regulatory developments, or shifts in funding conditions on major exchanges. The 2021–2022 era of rapid price appreciation followed by sharp corrections has conditioned market participants to weigh upside potential against the risk of retracements. In that sense, Peterson’s framework offers a lens to identify potential turning points, while Bernstein’s and Wells Fargo’s forecasts remind investors that price targets are only one piece of a complex puzzle. Investors facing this environment are likely to weigh multiple signals—price momentum, on-chain activity, institutional commentary, and macro indicators—before committing to meaningful exposure shifts.
Looking ahead, the interplay between these forecasts, market sentiment, and actual price action will be pivotal. The crypto market has shown resilience when liquidity returns and risk tolerance improves, yet the path to a durable rally requires sustained participation from both retail and institutional players. As analysts continue to publish scenarios that hinge on historical patterns repeating, traders should remain attentive to contingency setups, including potential catalysts that could accelerate or pause the rally. The balance of probabilities remains cautiously bullish, anchored by data-driven signals and the prospect of deeper institutional engagement, but never free of risk.
Sources and verifications discussed in this article include a pair of data-driven signals and commentary from market researchers and financial institutions, along with linked materials that capture the ongoing discourse around Bitcoin’s price path.
What to watch next
- Monitor BTC price action toward the $122,000 target within the next ten months and observe how monthly performance aligns with Peterson’s frequency-based metric.
- Track updates to Bernstein’s price scenario and Wells Fargo’s capital-flow expectations for Bitcoin and related equities, including any new investor communications or research notes.
- Watch for shifts in market sentiment as measured by surveys or social-media signals tied to crypto views, particularly around inflection-point indicators.
- Observe on-chain accumulation patterns, especially among large holders, as reported in relevant analyses and linked research notes.
Sources & verification
- Timothy Peterson’s X posts detailing the 88% odds via a trailing-month metric measuring frequency of positive months (data goes back to 2011).
- Bernstein’s analysis citing a $150,000 BTC target and framing Bitcoin’s decline as the “weakest bear case” in history.
- Wells Fargo’s note on potential $150 billion in inflows into Bitcoin and stocks by the end of March, highlighting growth in speculative participation.
- Reports and data on whale accumulation dynamics and related on-chain signals referenced in coverage surrounding V-shaped accumulation patterns.
- Historical discussion of Bitcoin price targets and market sentiment within the crypto narrative and linked market commentary.
Bitcoin momentum and the road ahead
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has drawn renewed attention from traders and analysts as data-driven signals suggest a potential upside path into 2027, even amid a recent stretch of muted sentiment. An informal metric developed by market economist Timothy Peterson points to an 88% probability that BTC/USD will be higher by early 2027, a claim grounded in monthly patterns dating back to 2011. If history repeats, the model implies a price near $122,000 per coin within ten months, positioning Bitcoin for what some view as an “average return” rather than a rapid meteoric rise. The narrative sits alongside a broader chorus of bullish commentary from major banks and market observers who continue to think Bitcoin can stage a substantial recovery in the coming year, even as risk-off currents persist across traditional markets.
The analysis frames its outlook around a few core ideas. First, the notion that a substantial portion of monthly price action over the past two years has been positive—roughly half—creates a probabilistic backdrop for a potential upward swing. Peterson explains that his metric measures frequency, not magnitude, so it could still register a down-month even in a broader uptrend. Still, he notes the utility of the approach for identifying inflection points that might precede a new phase of price appreciation. In a post on X, he underscored that the method is informal but helpful for spotting transitions in momentum.
Second, a separate line of bullish thinking continues to gain attention from institutions. Bernstein’s research team has argued for a substantial upside with a $150,000 target, framing Bitcoin’s recent drawdown as a potential setup for a longer-term rebound. This view aligns with a segment of the market that sees Bitcoin as a multiyear hedging asset whose risk premium may be re-rated as liquidity conditions improve and macro narratives shift. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo’s note projects sizable inflows into Bitcoin and equities by the end of March, underscoring the belief that a broader wave of savings and speculative capital could re-enter risk assets in the near term. Analysts there highlighted the appeal of “YOLO” style trades in a climate of improved liquidity and improving sentiment among some investor cohorts.
Despite the sense of optimism, the market remains cautious. Peterson’s own work cautions that while the metric can help identify inflection points, it does not guarantee a particular price path. The broader sentiment picture includes pockets of bearishness, as evidenced by surveys and on-chain commentary, which means that buyers should be prepared for a choppy advance rather than a straight line higher. The fact that bullish scenarios coexist with continued caution is a reminder that Bitcoin’s price trajectory will be influenced by a blend of on-chain dynamics, macro trends, and evolving investor appetite.
As the calendar moves toward early 2027, the most pertinent questions revolve around whether the momentum signals can translate into sustained price gains and whether the demand side—institutional capital, wealth managers, and retail participants—will sustain a higher level of engagement. The references to the Bernstein and Wells Fargo analyses, coupled with Peterson’s frequency-based perspective, provide a framework for assessing how different catalysts—ranging from improved liquidity to renewed risk-appetite cycles—could align to support a longer-term uptrend. In a market where headlines oscillate between caution and confidence, the likely path forward is not a single, definitive move but a sequence of incremental advances punctuated by periods of consolidation. For traders and long-term holders alike, the question remains: where does the next decisive breakout come from, and how will risk controls shift as Bitcoin tests higher price levels?
For readers seeking a direct line of verification, the key pieces of evidence in this discourse include Peterson’s analysis shared on X, Bernstein’s bullish scenario, and Wells Fargo’s inflow projections, all of which sit alongside ongoing reporting on on-chain activity and macro risk signals that influence market direction.
TLDR:
- Vitalik Buterin withdrew 3,500 ETH worth $6.95M from Aave, resuming sales after a two-week pause.
- The Ethereum Foundation entered a period of mild austerity to balance development goals and long-term sustainability.
- Buterin personally absorbed Foundation-level responsibilities, funding open-source software, hardware, and biotech projects.
- Community observers question whether Buterin’s personal ETH-funded projects align with the Foundation’s core protocol mandate.
Vitalik Buterin’s recent withdrawal of 3,500 ETH, valued at approximately $6.95 million, from lending protocol Aave has drawn fresh scrutiny.
On-chain analytics account Lookonchain flagged the transaction, noting that 571 ETH had already been sold shortly after.
Buterin followed the activity with a lengthy public post explaining his plans. Still, the line between a personal initiative and an Ethereum Foundation strategy remains worth examining closely.
A Personal Undertaking With Foundation-Level Scope
Buterin made clear that the Ethereum Foundation is currently entering a period of reduced spending. The organization aims to balance an aggressive development roadmap with long-term financial sustainability. These two goals sit at the center of what he described as “mild austerity.”
Within that context, Buterin stated that he is personally absorbing responsibilities previously handled as the Foundation’s special projects.
This is a notable shift. It moves significant decision-making and funding away from the institutional structure and into his individual hands.
The 16,384 ETH he disclosed withdrawing will fund a broad range of open-source technology efforts. These cover areas include finance, communication, governance, operating systems, secure hardware, and biotech. The scale of these goals is far larger than what most would consider a purely personal project.
This creates a reasonable question for observers. If the Foundation is tightening its budget, and Buterin is personally funding work that falls within the Foundation’s stated mission, where does one end and the other begin? That distinction has not been fully addressed in his public statement.
Community Scrutiny Follows the On-Chain Activity
Lookonchain reported that Buterin resumed selling ETH after a two-week pause. At the time of the report, he had already moved 571 ETH worth around $1.13 million into the market. The timing, coming alongside his public explanation, drew significant attention from crypto observers.
Buterin referenced a range of existing projects to support his stated vision. These include the Vensa open-silicon initiative, the uCritter platform featuring ZK and FHE privacy tools, air-quality monitoring work, and encrypted-messaging donations. Together, they paint a consistent picture of where his focus is directed.
However, some in the community have noted that these projects span well beyond Ethereum’s core protocol development.
Supporting biotech, secure hardware, and operating systems through personal ETH sales raises questions about how these efforts connect to the Foundation’s primary mandate.
Buterin addressed this indirectly by drawing a firm line between genuine openness and commercial openness. He stated his support is for technology that is “actually open” and verifiably working for users, not systems locked behind paid APIs.
Whether that vision is a personal philosophy or a new institutional direction for Ethereum remains an open question for the community to watch.
Crypto World
‘Bitcoin to Zero’ Hits Peak Search Interest in the U.S., yet a Clean Bottom Signal Remains Elusive
TLDR:
- U.S. searches for ‘bitcoin to zero’ hit a Google Trends score of 100 in February 2026, a record high.
- Global searches for the same term peaked in August 2025 and have since dropped to as low as 38 by February.
- Similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 coincided with local Bitcoin price bottoms, but context has shifted.
- Google Trends measures relative interest, not raw volume, making the current spike harder to compare with past cycles.
‘Bitcoin to zero‘ searches in the U.S. surged to a record high in February 2026, as BTC slid toward $60,000. Google Trends data showed the term scored 100 on its relative interest scale this month.
The move followed a 50%-plus drawdown from Bitcoin’s October all-time high. Global searches for the same term, however, have been falling since peaking in August.
That split between domestic and worldwide data keeps the bottom signal mixed rather than conclusive.
U.S. Searches Hit Record Highs as Domestic Fear Builds
‘Bitcoin to zero’ searches in the U.S. reached their highest recorded level in February on Google Trends. The spike coincided directly with Bitcoin’s sharp decline toward the $60,000 price level.
U.S.-specific catalysts appear to be amplifying retail anxiety more than broader global sentiment. Tariff escalation, Iran tensions, and a domestic equity risk-off rotation have all weighed on investor mood.
Globally, the same search term peaked at a score of 100 back in August 2025. By February 2026, worldwide interest in the term had cooled to as low as 38.
That contrast between U.S. and global data points to fear that is regionally concentrated. Holders in Asia and Europe are navigating Bitcoin’s drawdown within an entirely different news environment.
Historically, similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 aligned with local price bottoms. Traders familiar with those cycles have often treated elevated fear searches as a contrarian buy indicator.
However, the current environment differs from those earlier periods in meaningful ways. Bitcoin’s mainstream visibility and retail base have expanded considerably since then.
The global cooling trend complicates any straightforward bottom call based on U.S. searches alone. When worldwide fear is declining while domestic fear is rising, the signal lacks international confirmation.
That does not eliminate the possibility of a local reversal, but it reduces conviction. A mixed bottom signal requires more evidence before the case becomes compelling.
Methodology and Market Context Keep the Signal Inconclusive
Google Trends measures relative interest on a scale of 0 to 100, not raw search volume. A score of 100 simply means the term reached its own peak within the selected time window.
It does not confirm that more people searched the term in absolute terms compared to 2022. Against a much larger Bitcoin user base today, that distinction carries real analytical weight.
Bitcoin’s U.S. retail audience has grown substantially since the last major bear market cycle. A relative spike measured against a higher baseline does not carry the same weight as before.
Retail fear is clearly elevated, but elevated fear alone does not guarantee a trend reversal. Analysts recommend pairing this data with on-chain metrics before drawing firm conclusions.
The absence of a matching global fear spike keeps the contrarian case incomplete as of February. U.S. retail anxiety is real and measurable, but it remains a regional rather than a universal signal.
Prior cycles where searches and price bottoms aligned featured more synchronized global sentiment. That synchronization is currently missing from the data.
The ‘bitcoin to zero’ search spike does confirm that U.S. retail pressure is building. Whether that pressure marks a durable floor or simply reflects localized panic remains unclear.
Market participants continue watching for additional on-chain and global sentiment confirmation. Until those signals align, the bottom call stays mixed.
According to former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor Raoul Pal, the answer depends less on sentiment and more on liquidity.
Raoul Pal says signals are beginning to align in a way that historically precedes explosive upside moves.
Is Bitcoin About to Reprice To $140,000 Far Sooner Than The Market Expects?
Raoul Pal argues that Bitcoin is currently trading at a “deep discount” to global liquidity conditions. In previous cycles, similar gaps between liquidity expansion and price have not been resolved gradually. They have closed violently.
“If that gap closes,” he suggests, Bitcoin does not grind higher — it snaps into a higher range.
At the center of Pal’s thesis is a potential liquidity inflection point in Q1 2026. Several macro forces are converging at once.
First, changes to bank regulations, particularly adjustments to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR). According to Pal, this may allow banks to absorb more government debt without constraining their balance sheets.
That effectively gives the US Treasury greater flexibility to monetize deficits, increasing system-wide liquidity.
Second, Treasury General Account (TGA) dynamics are in focus. Historically, when the TGA is drawn down, liquidity quickly flows back into markets. Pal believes that the process is likely to accelerate.
Layer on a weakening US dollar, often a signal of easier financial conditions, and expanding liquidity from China’s balance sheet, and the backdrop becomes more supportive for risk assets.
According to Pal, liquidity is already improving faster than markets are pricing in. His rough estimate? If Bitcoin were to realign with prevailing liquidity conditions, the price would be closer to $140,000.
“…[based on liquidity models, Bitcoin] should be closer to $140,000 [if historical relationships hold],” he said.
A move to $140,000 would represent a 106% increase in Bitcoin’s price from current levels.
Business Cycle Confirmation
Pal also points to forward-looking indicators tied to the business cycle, particularly the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). In his framework, financial conditions lead ISM by roughly nine months, with global liquidity following shortly after.
The data he tracks suggests ISM could strengthen meaningfully this year, signaling an improving growth environment. These data, listed below, could all contribute to rising confidence and lending activity.
- Fiscal stimulus
- Tax incentives for fixed asset investment
- Capital expenditure on data centers and energy infrastructure, and
- Potential mortgage rate relief
If growth expectations rise while liquidity expands, Bitcoin and other high-beta assets have historically outperformed.
The October 10 Overhang
Yet despite these improving conditions, Bitcoin has lagged. Pal traces that disconnect to the October 10 liquidation cascade, a structural event he believes damaged market plumbing.
Unlike traditional equity flash crashes, crypto lacks regulatory safeguards to cancel trades. During the cascade, forced deleveraging coincided with exchange API disruptions, temporarily removing market makers and liquidity providers. Prices fell further than fundamentals justified.
Pal speculates that exchanges may have stepped in to absorb forced selling, later unwinding positions algorithmically during peak liquidity hours.
Combined with widespread call-selling strategies clustered around the $100,000 strike, often tied to yield products, the result was sustained upside suppression.
However, he believes that the overhang is now fading.
The “Banana Zone” Setup
Pal refers to the final acceleration phase of a crypto cycle as the “Banana Zone” —a nonlinear repricing driven by liquidity, improving growth, and renewed capital inflows.
Before that phase begins, markets typically digest prior volatility and clear structural resistance levels. The $100,000 zone, he argues, is both psychological and structural. Once call-selling pressure eases and positioning remains cautious, the setup for an upside shock strengthens.
Liquidity, in Pal’s view, leads price. By the time consensus turns bullish, the move may already be underway.
If global refinancing pressures force further liquidity injections into the system, Bitcoin, which he describes as a “global liquidity sponge,” could respond quickly.
And if the gap between liquidity and price closes, $140,000 may not be a stretch target. It may simply be where the market was always headed.
Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed after CME futures speculators turned net bullish in April 2025. A similar positioning shift is resurfacing in 2026, raising the odds of a BTC price recovery in the coming weeks.
Key takeaways:
BTC futures, technicals hint at $85,000 price target
Non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders cut their net position to about -1,600 contracts from roughly +1,000 a month earlier, according to the CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report published last week.
In practice, this means that large speculators, including hedge funds and similar financial institutions, have shifted from net short to long, with bulls outnumbering bears on the CME.
The rapid net-short unwind implies that “smart money” added longs “with some urgency,” said analyst Tom McClellan, while pointing to two similar past swings that preceded Bitcoin price bottoms.
For instance, BTC’s price gained around 70% after a sharp dip in CME Bitcoin futures net shorts in April 2025. In 2023, BTC price rose by over 190% under similar futures market conditions.
As of February, the smart money swing is flashing once again, just as Bitcoin defends its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, the blue line), which has acted as a bear-market floor in most major drawdowns of the last decade.
On Sunday, BTC’s 200-week EMA was hovering around near $68,350.
The last time Bitcoin traded around this moving average during deep sell-offs (in 2015, 2018 and 2020), it eventually marked the end of the downtrend and the start of a new recovery phase.
Related: Bitcoin historical price metric sees $122K ‘average return’ over 10 months
Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) remains in oversold territory, a sign that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
That further raises Bitcoin’s odds of recovering in the coming weeks. A decisive rebound from the 200-week EMA could trigger a run-up toward the 100-week EMA (the purple wave) at roughly $85,000 by April.
Bitcoin bulls aren’t out of the woods yet
McClellan cautioned that the smart money shift is “a condition, not a signal,” meaning Bitcoin could still slide from its current price levels before a durable low forms.
That may trigger the 2022 scenario, wherein BTC plunged by over 40% after breaking below its 200-week EMA despite similar oversold conditions.
A repeat of that 40% plunge in 2026 could result in BTC prices falling toward $40,000, or 60% from its record high of around $126,270.
Some analysts, including Kaiko, also see BTC potentially bottoming around $40,000–$50,000 based on its “four-year cycle” framework.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
TLDR:
- Nakamoto Inc. purchased 5,398 BTC near Bitcoin’s $118K peak, now sitting on $270M in unrealized losses.
- The $23.6B market cap wipeout marks one of the steepest corporate Bitcoin treasury collapses in crypto history.
- A reverse takeover structure helped launch $NAKA’s Bitcoin strategy but accelerated losses as sentiment shifted fast.
- The 99% drop in 280 days is pushing institutional investors to reconsider single large Bitcoin purchases near cycle tops.
$23.6 billion in market value has been wiped from Nakamoto Inc. ($NAKA) in just 280 days. The company purchased 5,398 Bitcoin near the asset’s all-time high of $118,000.
That single decision now carries $270 million in unrealized losses. The market capitalization collapse of 99% has stunned both retail and institutional observers.
This ranks among the most damaging corporate Bitcoin treasury bets on record.
How a Bold Bitcoin Bet Became a $23.6B Collapse
The scale of the $23.6 billion market cap erasure did not happen overnight. Nakamoto Inc. built its Bitcoin reserve strategy through a reverse takeover structure.
That approach generated early momentum and brief investor enthusiasm around the stock. As Bitcoin retreated from peak levels, however, the company’s valuation followed in dramatic fashion.
Buying 5,398 BTC at approximately $118,000 per coin left the company extremely vulnerable to any price correction. There was no phased entry, no cost-averaging approach, and no visible downside buffer in place.
When prices moved against the position, the losses compounded quickly across 280 days. The result was a near-total destruction of shareholder value.
Analyst @wiseadvicesumit captured the situation plainly, writing that “conviction is powerful” but “timing is brutal.”
The post described this as what happens when “number go up forever” meets reality. That framing resonated widely across crypto communities and financial circles. Many observers pointed to the entry price as the single most critical failure in the entire strategy.
The $270M Loss That Is Reshaping Corporate Crypto Strategy
The $270 million sitting in unrealized losses represents more than a balance sheet problem for Nakamoto Inc. It signals a broader warning for any corporate treasury considering large, concentrated Bitcoin positions.
Crypto commentator @nice_investment described the collapse as “one of the most expensive timing errors in crypto history.” That assessment is difficult to argue against, given the numbers involved.
The use of a reverse takeover to establish the Bitcoin reserve drew significant attention at launch. It positioned Nakamoto Inc. as an aggressive, conviction-driven institutional player in the crypto space.
Yet the same structure that amplified early excitement also accelerated the downside when sentiment shifted. The $23.6 billion erasure now follows that story wherever it is told.
Corporate treasury teams across the industry are watching this outcome carefully. Single large purchases near market cycle peaks have historically produced poor returns across multiple Bitcoin cycles.
This case adds a striking new data point to that pattern. Going forward, phased entry strategies and defined risk thresholds are likely to gain more favor among institutions entering the Bitcoin market.
Coinbase, Binance, and BlackRock collectively hold millions of BTC, which reveals centralized power amid decentralized cryptocurrency narratives.
Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, remains the largest single holder of the cryptocurrency, controlling approximately 1.1 million BTC. This adds up to roughly 5.5% of the total supply. At current market prices, this stake is worth around $75 billion, dwarfing the holdings of even the largest corporate and institutional players.
Despite years of speculation about potential movement from these early-mined addresses, Nakamoto’s BTC have largely remained untouched since the asset’s inception.
Bitcoin’s Top Holders Revealed
Following Nakamoto in the rankings is the US-based exchange Coinbase, which holds 993,069 BTC on-chain, equivalent to 5% of the total supply. These funds represent a combination of client deposits and corporate reserves, including liquidity kept on hand to satisfy withdrawals. Its rival, Binance, controls 661,000 BTC under custody, which accounts for 3.15% of the total supply.
The institutional sector is also staking its claim. Arkham Intelligence data revealed that BlackRock is the largest institutional holder, with 761,801 BTC. This stash is worth around $52 billion. ETF issuers and other asset managers such as Fidelity and Grayscale also maintain significant positions, though some of their holdings are routed through omnibus custodial accounts, which makes direct attribution slightly less transparent. For example, Fidelity Custody appears to hold 448,000 BTC. Meanwhile, some of Strategy’s corporate holdings, which total 715,000 BTC, are reflected on-chain under Fidelity due to their custodial method.
Besides Strategy, other publicly traded entities, including mining firm MARA and Japanese firm Metaplanet, have also acquired meaningful stakes. Additionally, private companies round out the largest holders. Popular stablecoin issuer Tether has 96,369 BTC and SpaceX holds 8,300 BTC as of August 2025.
Nations Stockpiling Bitcoin
While entities like BlackRock and Coinbase hold vast amounts, governments like the United States, which leads the list with 328,000 BTC, aren’t far behind. Most of this came from asset seizures, including coins recovered from the Bitfinex hack, the Silk Road marketplace, and its hacker James Zhong. More recently, the US government also acquired 127,000 BTC from the LuBian Hacker address.
Next up is the United Kingdom with 61,245 BTC, largely seized by the UK Metropolitan Police from Jian Wen and Zhimin Qian in 2018. China’s authorities have also confiscated 194,775 BTC from the PlusToken Ponzi scheme in 2020, though it is unclear if the Chinese government still holds these coins or has sold them.
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Ukraine has also seen significant Bitcoin involvement. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the country received $22.8 million in BTC donations. More than 700,000 Ukrainian public officials have declared owning Bitcoin, with some holding up to 18,000 BTC, totaling almost 46,351 BTC.
Germany seized 50,000 BTC from a movie piracy website called Movie2k in January 2024, but these coins were fully sold by July 2024.
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Crypto World
U.S. Treasuries Go Crypto: How the $10 Billion Milestone Is Rewriting the Rules of Government Debt
TLDR:
- Tokenized U.S. Treasuries crossed $10 billion in 2026, outpacing projections and leading the $25 billion RWA market.
- SEC-approved DTCC deployment of tokenized Treasuries on Canton Network signals full regulatory backing for on-chain government debt.
- JPMorgan’s “MONY” fund connects institutional stablecoin access directly to Ethereum-based U.S. Treasury yield products.
- NYSE and LSEG are racing to launch 24/7 on-chain trading platforms built around instant atomic settlement of Treasuries.
Tokenized U.S. Treasuries have crossed the $10 billion threshold in 2026, marking a major turning point for blockchain-based government securities.
This milestone places Treasuries at the center of the broader tokenized real-world asset market, which now sits above $25 billion excluding stablecoins.
Institutions that spent years testing the technology are now committing real capital at scale. With some analysts projecting the Treasury segment alone could reach $100 billion by year-end, the pace of growth is drawing serious attention across global financial markets.
Tokenized Treasuries Are Now Leading the Entire Real-World Asset Market
U.S. Treasuries have emerged as the dominant asset class within the tokenized real-world asset space. Their government backing, liquidity, and yield profile make them a natural fit for on-chain financial products.
Institutions managing large pools of capital are using tokenized Treasuries as a stable, yield-generating base layer in digital asset portfolios.
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation is actively deploying tokenized Treasuries on the Canton Network with SEC approval already in place.
As @subjectiveviews noted, this move confirms that regulators are no longer holding institutions back — they are actively clearing the runway. That regulatory posture is directly encouraging more capital to flow into Treasury-backed tokenized instruments.
The $10 billion figure is not a ceiling — it reflects where the market stands today amid an accelerating adoption curve.
Exchanges like NYSE and LSEG are simultaneously building 24/7 on-chain trading infrastructure with instant settlement capabilities.
Together, these developments are creating a continuous, liquid market for tokenized government securities that did not exist two years ago.
Major Banks Are Building Products Around Tokenized Treasury Infrastructure
JPMorgan’s launch of “MONY” in late 2025 brought tokenized money market exposure to institutional clients through an Ethereum-based fund.
The product offers stablecoin-compatible access to yields backed by short-duration government instruments, including Treasuries.
That move by one of the largest U.S. banks added significant credibility to Treasury tokenization as a viable institutional product category.
BNY Mellon, Citigroup, Lloyds, and Société Générale are also issuing tokenized deposits and digital bonds that interact with government securities markets.
Their collective participation shows that Treasury tokenization is no longer isolated to fintech experiments. These are established financial institutions reallocating operational resources toward blockchain-based settlement systems.
Ant International is separately advancing tokenized cross-border payment infrastructure built on global standards, which also channels demand toward stable tokenized assets like Treasuries.
@subjectiveviews described 2026 as “the consolidation year: pilots turning live, regulations clearing the path, shifting from experiments to core infrastructure.”
Faster settlement, atomic trading, and around-the-clock liquidity are now operational realities rather than future projections.
The $10 billion Treasury milestone is, by most measures, only the opening chapter of a much larger structural shift in how government debt is issued, traded, and held globally.
TLDR:
- Ethereum NUPL on Binance has fallen to -0.1689, marking its lowest recorded value in approximately nine months.
- A negative NUPL reading shows most Binance ETH reserves are currently sitting in unrealized loss territory near $1,973.
- The last comparable NUPL dip on Binance occurred around May 2024, during a sharp digital asset market correction.
- Historically, deep negative NUPL levels on Binance have been associated with reduced selling pressure and potential accumulation zones.
Ethereum NUPL on Binance has fallen to its lowest point in about nine months. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator is currently sitting near a value of -0.1689 on the exchange.
This places a considerable portion of Binance’s Ethereum reserves in unrealized loss territory. Ethereum is trading at approximately $1,973 at the time of writing.
The reading is drawing attention from market participants monitoring sentiment on the world’s most liquid crypto exchange.
What the Negative NUPL Reading Signals for Ethereum Holders on Binance
The Ethereum NUPL on Binance measures whether coins held in the exchange’s reserves sit in unrealized profit or loss.
It does not track the broader Ethereum network as a whole. Rather, it focuses solely on Binance’s reserve activity, offering exchange-specific sentiment data.
A negative reading like -0.1689 shows that most Ethereum held on Binance is currently at a loss. Historically, this type of reading tends to slow selling pressure on the market. Traders holding unrealized losses are less inclined to sell and lock those losses in.
Source: Cryptoquant
This shift matters because Binance is the world’s most liquid cryptocurrency exchange by volume. Activity on its platform carries outsized influence over broader market dynamics.
Binance processes billions in daily trading volume, making its reserve data particularly relevant. When its holders move into loss territory, the behavioral response often differs from what broader network data shows.
The NUPL chart therefore gives analysts a sharper picture of exchange-level positioning. It complements other on-chain tools by narrowing the focus to one key venue.
Analysts tracking exchange-specific data often prioritize this reading when assessing short-term market dynamics. For those watching selling pressure, the current negative reading is a notable development worth tracking.
How This Reading Compares to Historical Levels and What It Could Mean
The last time Ethereum NUPL on Binance registered similarly low values was around May 2024. That period coincided with a sharp market correction and widespread weakness in digital asset prices.
Since that point, the indicator largely recovered and traded near zero or above.
The return to negative territory today stands out against that backdrop. Over the past nine months, this represents one of the more pronounced dips recorded by the indicator.
That context adds weight to the current reading beyond just the number itself.
Some market participants historically associate these levels with potential accumulation zones. However, a negative NUPL reading alone does not confirm a price bottom has formed. It reflects current unrealized loss conditions within Binance reserves, nothing more and nothing less.
Traders and analysts continue to watch this metric as one data point among many. The current reading shows holders on Binance are underwater on their positions.
Whether that leads to accumulation or further pressure remains to be seen in the days ahead.
Investor capital is shifting from token launches into publicly listed crypto companies, a trend highlighted by DWF Labs’ research. Drawing on Memento Research data that spans hundreds of token launches across the world’s leading exchanges, the study notes that more than 80% of projects trade below their TGE price, with typical drawdowns of 50% to 70% within roughly 90 days of listing. The pattern appears to be less about ephemeral volatility and more a persistent post-listing dynamic, according to Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, who said most tokens punch a price peak in the first month before a downward drift takes hold.
Key takeaways
- More than eight in ten token projects fall below their TGE price, with 50%–70% declines typically occurring within about 90 days of exchange listing.
- Capital is flowing into crypto equities and regulated markets, as crypto IPOs in 2025 reach around $14.6 billion and M&A activity in the sector tops $42.5 billion.
- The shift is structural, not a temporary market move: institutional buyers prefer governance, disclosure, and the durability of equity-style exposure over pure-token plays.
- The valuation gap between listed crypto equities and token projects persists, driven by accessibility and the inclusion of public shares in indexes and ETFs.
- Investors are gravitating toward the “infrastructure” layer—custody, payments, settlement, and compliance—where an equity wrapper can enable licensing, audits, and distribution through established channels.
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Negative. Tokens frequently trade below their TGE price, with 50%–70% drawdowns within ~90 days of listing, indicating immediate negative price impact for public buyers.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. As capital rotates toward regulated crypto equities, a cautious stance on new token launches and a tilt toward asset classes with predictable governance remains prudent.
Market context: The observed rotation toward publicly traded crypto equities mirrors broader shifts in liquidity and risk sentiment, with institutional participants seeking regulated exposure, clear reporting standards, and the potential for indexes and ETFs to dilute onboarding friction.
Why it matters
For traders and investors, the divergence between token launches and equity-backed crypto ventures signals a bifurcated market where real-world adoption and revenue generation in a project can determine value more reliably than token-only narratives. Tokens that fail to secure steady user growth, fees, transaction volume, and retention often fail to justify premium prices, whereas listed crypto companies can rely on audited financials, governance processes, and enforceable rights to attract capital.
Builders and startups in the ecosystem may now prioritize infrastructure assets—custody solutions, settlement rails, and compliance tooling—over purely token-centered incentives. The “equity wrapper” offers a path to licensing, partnerships, and distribution through traditional financial rails, potentially accelerating real-world deployment of decentralized networks.
The data imply a structural shift rather than a one-off market wobble. While tokens will persist as governance tokens and incentive mechanisms within protocols, the near-term funding environment favors assets with tangible revenue streams and clearer ownership structures.
Market participants should watch for three key indicators in the months ahead. First, the cadence of crypto IPOs and SPACs will reveal whether the interest in regulated exposure persists beyond a single cycle. Second, progress in custody, settlement, and compliance infrastructure will indicate whether traditional rails can be scaled to support broader tokenized ecosystems. Third, the timing of token unlocks and new airdrops will continue to influence near-term price action for newly listed tokens, potentially reintroducing selling pressure even as demand for regulated equity exposure grows. The convergence of these factors will shape how liquidity moves through the crypto economy in the near term.
What to watch next
- Monitoring crypto IPO and SPAC activity in the coming quarters for signs of persistent appetite in regulated markets
- Tracking custody, settlement, and compliance infrastructure progress that could enable broader institutional participation
- Watching token unlock schedules and airdrop cadence for any renewed selling pressure on launch tokens
- Observing whether major exchanges expand regulated product lines (ETFs, ETPs) that channel institutional flows into crypto equities
Sources & verification
- DWF Labs analysis referencing Memento Research data on 2025 token launches
- Comments from Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, on post-listing patterns
- Statements from Maksym Sakharov, co-founder of WeFi, about capital rotation toward infrastructure and equity rails
- Public data on 2025 crypto IPO fundraising (~$14.6 billion) and M&A activity (over $42.5 billion)
Market shift: capital moves toward crypto equities as token launches struggle
Investor capital is increasingly flowing into publicly listed crypto companies as token launches confront a tougher funding environment. The pattern is grounded in a body of data assembled by Memento Research, which surveyed hundreds of token launches across the world’s leading exchanges. The results point to a recurring dynamic: the bulk of projects do not sustain an initial listing premium. More than 80% of token ventures trade below their TGE price, and the typical drawdown ranges from 50% to 70% within about three months after listing. The implications extend beyond daily price moves, signaling a structural preference among large investors for assets that offer governance, transparency, and legal clarity.
Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, frames these findings as evidence of a persistent post-listing reality rather than mere volatility. He notes that most tokens spike in price during the first month after listing, then trend downward as selling pressure mounts from early buyers and early investors seeking to realize gains. “TGE price is the exchange-listed price set before launch. This is the price the token is expected to open at on the exchange, and it reveals how much the price actually changes due to volatility in the first few days,” Grachev explained. The takeaway is not simply about one bad week but about a structural pattern that re-emerges across numerous launches.
The analysis deliberately focused on token launches tied to projects with products or protocols—not memecoins—highlighting a distinction between listings driven by purely speculative interest and those backed by real-world product development. A separate thread in the data points toird as major pressure points for selling, further contributing to the downward price trajectory observed after token listings. In practice, this means a token’s initial post-listing performance often reflects supply dynamics and initial investor expectations more than sustained user activity.
On the other side of the ledger, capital formation in traditional markets tied to the crypto sector has intensified. 2025 saw crypto-related initial public offerings (IPOs) raise roughly $14.6 billion, a sharp increase from the previous year, while merger and acquisition activity in crypto-adjacent businesses surpassed $42.5 billion—the strongest level in five years. DWF’s Grachev stresses that this surge should be read as a rotation rather than a withdrawal of capital from the crypto space. If capital were exiting crypto altogether, the jump in IPOs and M&A would be hard to reconcile with continued token underperformance and a widening disconnect between token valuations and equity valuations.
In the report, public crypto equities such as Circle, Gemini, eToro, Bullish, and Figure are compared with tokenized projects by looking at trailing 12-month price-to-sales ratios. Public equities traded at multiples spanning roughly 7 to 40 times sales, while tokenized peers hovered in the 2 to 16 times range. The valuation gap, according to the authors, is partly a matter of accessibility: many institutional investors—pension funds and endowments among them—are limited to regulated securities markets, and public shares can be incorporated into indexes and exchange-traded funds. This dynamic creates a built-in bid for equity-like crypto exposure, independent of the performance of any single token.
Sakharov of WeFi adds nuance to the narrative, noting that the shift reflects a preference for cleaner ownership, clearer disclosure, and enforceable rights—features more readily associated with equity than with many token models. He argues that capital is moving toward infrastructure plays—custody, payments, settlement, brokerage, and compliance—where the “equity wrapper” can accelerate licensing, audits, partnerships, and distribution channels into real-world markets. The migration does not imply tokens are vanishing; rather, it signals a bifurcation: serious protocols with recognized revenue potential and governance will mature and attract capital, while a long tail of speculative launches face a tougher financing climate.
For users and investors, the divide matters because it reframes how value is assigned in crypto networks. Tokens may continue to power governance and incentive mechanisms, but the presence of audited financials, governance rights, and legal claims offers a degree of accountability that is increasingly appealing to risk-aware institutions. The shift also shapes how builders design networks. Demand for robust custody and compliant settlement systems may become the default expectation for any project seeking institutional participation or licensing opportunities, effectively pushing infrastructure improvements higher up the roadmap.
Market participants should watch for three key indicators in the months ahead. First, the cadence of crypto IPOs and SPACs will reveal whether the interest in regulated exposure persists beyond a single cycle. Second, progress in custody, settlement, and compliance infrastructure will indicate whether traditional rails can be scaled to support broader tokenized ecosystems. Third, the timing of token unlocks and new airdrops will continue to influence near-term price action for newly listed tokens, potentially reintroducing selling pressure even as demand for regulated equity exposure grows. The convergence of these factors will shape how liquidity moves through the crypto economy in the near term.
The crypto bear market seems to be taking form. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure, with Bitcoin down nearly 24% year-to-date and about 22% year-on-year, while Ethereum has fallen roughly 34% YTD and over 30% across the same period. The broader market continues to reflect weak sentiment.
Yet, BeInCrypto analysts have identified three altcoins that are still posting strong gains in the year-to-date and year-over-year periods, signaling demand and technical structures that appear disconnected from the ongoing bear market.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
The crypto bear market has not stopped Bitcoin Cash (BCH) from showing unusual strength. While many altcoins struggle, BCH remains one of the strongest altcoins, holding large yearly gains. Bitcoin Cash is still up nearly 80% year-on-year, showing that demand has stayed intact even as the broader crypto bear market continues.
This strength is now clearly visible in whale behavior. The largest Bitcoin Cash holders, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million BCH, increased their holdings from 4.31 million BCH on February 16 to 4.36 million BCH recently.
This means whales added 50,000 BCH, worth about $28.5 million at the current price. Whale accumulation during a crypto bear market often signals confidence, as these investors typically buy when they expect higher prices ahead.
This optimism connects directly with Bitcoin Cash’s price chart. BCH is currently forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a bullish pattern that often precedes a breakout.
This pattern shows that selling pressure is fading and buyers are slowly gaining control. BCH attempted a breakout near $575 but faced some selling pressure. However, continued whale buying suggests this resistance may weaken over time.
A confirmed breakout requires a daily close above $575. If that happens, BCH could rally toward $793 and potentially $800, completing the pattern’s nearly 40% upside target. These levels also align with Fibonacci resistance zones, strengthening the bullish case.
However, risks still exist. The bullish structure weakens if BCH falls below $538, because that would show buyers losing control. Full invalidation happens only if the BCH price drops under $422, which would break the entire pattern.
For now, Bitcoin Cash stands out as one of the rare altcoins defying the bear market, supported by both whale accumulation and a bullish technical structure.
Morpho (MORPHO)
Among the altcoins defying the bear market, Morpho stands out because of its strong fundamentals and bullish price structure.
Morpho is the governance token of a decentralized lending platform that allows users to lend and borrow crypto more efficiently. Its infrastructure, called Morpho Blue, improves capital efficiency by directly matching lenders and borrowers, offering better yields and lower borrowing costs.
This strong foundation is now attracting institutional attention. On February 13, 2026, Apollo Global Management, which oversees nearly $940 billion in assets, committed to acquiring up to 90 million MORPHO tokens, or about 9% of the total supply, over time. This creates steady buying pressure and validates Morpho’s role in institutional decentralized finance.
This fundamental optimism is also visible on the price chart. Since February 6, MORPHO has already rallied more than 72%, forming the pole of a classic bullish continuation pattern called a pole-and-flag.
The current consolidation could form the flag, which is a normal pause before another potential move higher.
At the same time, a golden crossover is approaching. This happens when the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which tracks the medium-term price trend, moves above the 200-period EMA, which tracks the long-term trend. This signal often confirms the start of a sustained uptrend.
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For now, MORPHO remains strong as long as the consolidation range holds above $1.48. However, the structure weakens below $1.34, where the 200-period EMA sits.
However, a confirmed breakout above $1.63 could trigger another 72% rally toward $2.85, reinforcing Morpho’s position among altcoins defying weakness during the crypto bear market.
Decred (DCR)
After Bitcoin Cash and Morpho, Decred has emerged as another altcoin quietly showing unusual strength. The token is up 93% year-on-year and 61% year-to-date, making it the strongest performer in this group of strong altcoins. Even in the past 24 hours, Decred has gained nearly 10%, highlighting persistent demand.
Part of this strength comes from its recent treasury upgrade, which improved how the network funds its own growth and reinforced long-term investor confidence.
However, the chart structure explains why this strength may not be over yet.
Decred is currently trading inside an ascending channel. It is a bullish structure in which the price moves between two rising parallel trendlines.
This pattern usually signals steady accumulation and controlled upward momentum. At the same time, a cup pattern is forming within this channel, creating what appears to be two bullish patterns folded into one structure.
This dual formation significantly strengthens the outlook. Based on the channel and cup projection, Decred could see nearly 37% upside. One major target sits near $39.76, while the extended target aligns near $45.33 if momentum continues.
In the short term, the structure remains healthy as long as Decred holds above $23.66. This level acts as the lower support inside the channel.
A move above $28.79 would signal growing strength and increase the chances of a breakout toward $32.98. It is a key zone that aligns with the channel’s upper trendline. Once this level breaks, the larger upside projection becomes more likely.
However, a drop below $22.01 would weaken the pattern and shift the structure from bullish to neutral. For now, Decred’s rare combination of strong performance and a layered bullish chart setup shows why it continues to stand out amid most altcoins’ struggles.
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