Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects renewed weakness after failing to sustain momentum above the $70K region. The rejection at this key psychological threshold has shifted short-term sentiment back toward caution, as sellers regained control and forced the price beneath recent daily lows.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC recently faced a clear rejection at the $70K threshold, where selling pressure intensified and pushed the asset back below the recent daily lows. This breakdown highlights the continued presence of sellers at higher levels and reinforces the fragile nature of the current recovery attempts.

With the price slipping back under short-term structure, the market appears to be lacking strong bullish momentum. At this stage, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a broader consolidation phase between the $60K support zone and the $75K resistance area. A decisive breakout beyond either boundary will be required to establish the next sustained directional move, while continued rejection near $70K keeps the short-term bias cautious.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin had been compressing inside a symmetrical triangle following the sharp bounce from the $60K low. That structure has now resolved to the downside, with the price breaking below the ascending support trendline and accelerating lower.

The breakdown confirms short-term bearish continuation and shifts focus back toward the lower boundary of the broader demand area. Any rebound toward the underside of the broken triangle support or toward the $74K–$76K prior supply region would likely be viewed as a corrective retest unless buyers can generate strong follow-through.

At the moment, short-term structure favors sellers, and the market is searching for a new equilibrium level after the failed compression.

Sentiment Analysis

The liquidation heatmap shows a dense liquidity cluster above the current price around the $69K–$70K region, which previously acted as a magnetic zone during consolidation. This cluster absorbed the price multiple times before the recent drop, highlighting how overhead liquidity continues to cap upside attempts.

At the same time, slight liquidity bands have formed below the market in the $62K–$65K range. The recent sharp move downward tapped into part of this liquidity pocket, triggering liquidations and fueling volatility. The presence of remaining liquidity beneath the current price suggests that further sweeps cannot be ruled out, especially if momentum remains weak.

Overall, Bitcoin is positioned between overhead liquidity that acts as resistance and lower liquidity pockets that may attract price in the short term. The interaction with these zones, combined with the broader bearish channel structure, will determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes above $60K or extends its corrective phase deeper.

Bitdeer (BTDR) a Singapore-based bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure company has reduced its bitcoin treasury stash to zero, marking a sharp break from the miner playbook of hoarding coins as a signal of conviction seen by the likes of Strategy (MSTR).

The company reported BTC holdings of zero as of Feb. 20, excluding customer deposits. It produced 189.8 BTC on their weekly update and sold the entire amount. Instead of positioning bitcoin as a balance sheet reserve, Bitdeer is turning production into liquidity.

Bitdeer said the decision to sell bitcoin should not concern the broader market, in a post on X, noting it is evaluating multiple powered land acquisition opportunities and believes it is prudent to prepare liquidity now, while continuing to grow hash rate and mine more bitcoin for shareholders.

Operationally, growth remains intact for the company. Bitdeer mined 668 bitcoin in January, up 430% year over year, and increased its self mining hash rate to 63.2 EH per second (EH/s), with total proprietary hash rate reaching 65.1 EH/s.

Bitdeer is accelerating its push into AI infrastructure, rolling out NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 systems in Malaysia and advancing conversions of several sites in the U.S. and Europe from crypto mining to AI data centers.

AI expansion is far more capital intensive than incremental mining buildouts, requiring large scale GPU clusters and data center upgrades.

Bitdeer recently priced a $325 million convertible notes offering and a $43.5 million equity raise to fund datacenter expansion, HPC and AI cloud growth, and ASIC development.

Unlike bitcoin mining, which is tied to price cycles and halvings, AI and HPC contracts can offer more predictable revenue streams. The pivot also represents an attempt by miners to be valued less as leveraged bitcoin proxies and more as digital infrastructure and AI plays.

Peers are moving in the same direction. Riot Platforms (RIOT) recently sold $200 million worth of bitcoin to fund operations and AI expansion. While Bitfarms (BITF) are dropping its “bitcoin company” identity and doubled down on AI in the U.S. MARA Holdings (MARA) is also expanding into HPC and AI through a planned 64% stake in France based Exaion.

Bitdeer shares are down 1% in pre-market, trading at $7.70 per share.

TLDR:

• Brazil’s Central Bank plans to finalize institutional VASP regulations within the 2026–2027 regulatory horizon.
  
• Companies like Ripple, Fireblocks, and BitGo will be directly affected by the incoming institutional VASP framework.
  
• Existing crypto firms operating in Brazil will have 270 days to report their activities to the Central Bank.
  
• Brazil’s Receita Federal is preparing a 3.5% tax on stablecoin flows used as dollar proxies for payments.

Brazil’s Central Bank is moving forward with a regulatory framework for institutional virtual asset service providers (VASPs) before 2027.

These firms build and operate crypto infrastructure for other businesses, not retail users. Companies like Fireblocks, BitGo, Ripple, and Wintermute fall under this category.

Antônio Marcos Guimarães, deputy head of the bank’s Regulation Department, confirmed the plans during a live broadcast on February 9, marking another step in Brazil’s growing crypto oversight agenda.

Framework Takes Shape from Market Consultations

The demand to regulate institutional VASPs came directly from the crypto industry itself. During public consultations, market participants urged the Central Bank to address this segment formally.

The regulator acknowledged the request but chose to tackle stablecoins and other pressing matters first. Now, the 2026-2027 window is reserved for institutional VASP oversight.

Guimarães made the bank’s direction clear during the February 9 broadcast. “The Central Bank is finalizing the authorization criteria for companies that already operate,” he said.

He added that those firms “will have 270 days to inform the Central Bank” of their activities. He also confirmed that “in the 2026-2027 horizon, we intend to advance in the regulation of institutional PSAVs (B2B).”

The Central Bank’s plan involves creating a negotiation model between authorized entities. Under this model, qualifying companies could serve as liquidity and infrastructure providers.

This structure differs significantly from traditional brokerage setups common in retail crypto markets. The approach reflects how institutional crypto operations actually function at scale.

Brazil has already taken steps to bring commercial banks into the crypto space in 2026. New rules streamlining bank participation in crypto markets were rolled out earlier this year.

The institutional VASP framework builds directly on that regulatory momentum. Together, these measures are shaping a more structured and transparent crypto environment across Brazil.

Technical Complexity Slows But Does Not Stop Regulatory Progress

One reason the Central Bank delayed institutional VASP regulation was the sector’s technical complexity. Guimarães explained that the complexity stems from “the nature of the operation of these companies.”

He noted there is “no brokerage system that organizes operations,” and that “trading takes place in a decentralized environment based on private networks and shared technological infrastructure.” That reality made standard regulatory tools difficult to apply without significant modification.

Transactions among institutional VASPs settle without a central intermediary organizing trades. This decentralized dynamic across private networks creates real challenges for monitoring and reporting.

The Central Bank recognized early that a tailored approach was necessary here. As a result, regulators studied the sector carefully before committing to a formal framework.

Brazil’s national revenue service, Receita Federal, is also preparing related measures. It is reportedly working on a 3.5% tax targeting stablecoin flows used as dollar-pegged payment proxies.

That proposal adds another layer to Brazil’s evolving digital asset policy. Both developments reflect a coordinated push toward broader crypto market governance.

The institutional VASP framework still has time to develop before the 2027 deadline arrives. Market participants and regulators will likely engage further as specific rules take shape.

Brazil’s methodical, consultation-driven approach continues to attract attention across the global crypto industry.

Ripple’s XRP joined the rest of the market in the past day, with another crash displaying continued weakness within a broader descending structure, as upside attempts repeatedly fail to generate sustained momentum. The price is now trading within a clearly defined range, awaiting a decisive breakout to determine the next directional move.

Ripple Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, XRP attempted to break above the channel’s middle boundary of $1.60 but failed to sustain the move. The brief push beyond this midline resulted in a liquidity sweep, where buy-side liquidity was taken before sellers stepped back in and drove the asset lower. This false breakout highlights the presence of supply overhead and confirms that bullish momentum remains fragile.

Following the rejection, the price rotated back into the established range and continues to fluctuate between the upper supply zone and the lower demand base. The structure now suggests ongoing consolidation rather than immediate trend reversal. Unless XRP can decisively reclaim and hold above the channel’s middle boundary, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with liquidity hunts on both sides shaping short-term volatility.

XRP/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP remains structurally bearish, trading inside a well-defined descending structure. After the failed daily breakout and liquidity sweep, the price resumed its downward trajectory and continues to form lower highs and lower lows within the channel boundaries.

The recent bounce from the lower demand zone near the $1.10–$1.20 region was sharp but corrective in nature. The asset is now consolidating around the $1.35–$1.40 area, which previously acted as intraday support.

As long as XRP remains below the channel’s mid-structure and the $1.50 zone, upside attempts are likely to face selling pressure. A move toward the $1.50–$1.55 supply region would be considered a corrective retest unless accompanied by strong momentum and a structural break. On the downside, losing the current support cluster would expose the lower boundary of the channel and increase the probability of another liquidity sweep below recent lows.

AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.7015. NZD/USD is consolidating and could aim for a move above 0.6000 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

· The Aussie Dollar remained supported above 0.7000 and recovered losses against the US Dollar.

· There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance at 0.7070 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.

· NZD/USD is consolidating above 0.5965 and 0.5950.

· There was a break above a declining channel with resistance at 0.5960 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.7000. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above 0.7035 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance at 0.7070. The bulls even pushed the pair above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7147 swing high to the 0.7015 low and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair could struggle to clear the 76.4% Fib retracement at 0.7115. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 0.7150.

An upside break above 0.7150 might send the pair further higher. The next major target might be 0.7220. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.7300. If there is no close above 0.7115, the pair might start a fresh decline.

Immediate bid zone could be near 0.7065 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next area of interest is 0.7035. If there is a downside break below 0.7035, the pair could extend its decline toward 0.7015. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6965.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed AUD/USD. The New Zealand Dollar failed to stay above 0.6020 and corrected gains against the US Dollar.

The pair dipped below 0.5965 and the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.5830. A low was formed at 0.5937, and the pair is now attempting to recover losses. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6052 swing high to the 0.5937 low.

Besides, there was a break above a declining channel with resistance at 0.5960. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is above 50, signaling a short-term positive bias. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near 0.6010.

The next major hurdle for buyers could be near the 76.4% Fib retracement at 0.6025. A clear move above 0.6025 might even push the pair toward 0.6050. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6122 pivot zone in the coming sessions.

On the downside, there is support forming near 0.5965 and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 0.5965, the pair might slide toward 0.5940. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5900.

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The week will be dominated by earnings reports from crypto-related companies, though the repercussions of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs on Friday are also likely to ripple through markets.

Miners including MARA Holdings (MARA) and Hut 8 (HUT) are on the roster, and will fuel the conversation over diversification into high-performance computing centers and support for AI. Also on the AI front, Nvidia (NVDA), a maker of chips for the AI industry and the world’s largest publicly traded company by market capitalization, reports earnings on Wednesday.

Circle Internet (CRCL), issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, USDC, is also on Wednesday’s list.

In the wider economy, a number of U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are set to make speeches in the coming days. And don’t forget the U.S.-Iran talks, which resume on Geneva on Thursday even as both sides build up their military preparations.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • Feb. 23: Alchemy Chain’s testnet is scheduled to go live.
  • Feb. 25, 1 p.m.: SwissBorg to host its “biggest keynote ever.”
  • Feb. 25, 1 p.m.: Hedera mainnet to upgrade to version 0.7
  • Feb. 27: The Sandbox Season 7 starts.
• Macro
  • Feb. 23, 8:00 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics.
  • Feb. 23, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for February (Prev. -1.2)
  • Feb. 24, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP employment change weekly (Prev. 10.25K)
  • Feb. 24, 9 a.m.: S&P Case-Shiller home price YoY (Prv. 1.4%)
  • Feb. 24, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. CB consumer confidence est. 86 (Prev. 84.5)
  • Feb. 24, 1:00 p.m.: U.S. money supply for January (M2) (Prev. $22.4T)
  • Feb. 25, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone core inflation rate YoY final est. 2.2% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • Feb. 25, 4:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed balance sheet for week ending Feb. 25 (Prev. $6.61T)
  • Feb. 25, 8:30 p.m.: Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata gives a speech at a meeting with local leaders in Kyoto
  • Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending Feb. 21 (Prev. 206K)
  • Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman to testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
  • Feb. 26, 6:50 p.m.: Japan Tokyo core CPI YoY for February est. 2% (Prev. 2%)
  • Feb. 27, 8:00 a.m.: German inflation rate YoY prelim. for February (Prev. 2.1%)
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI MoM for January est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Core PPI MoM est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%)
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for January est. 2.9% (Prev. 3%)
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: Canada GDP growth rate annualized for Q4 (Prev. 2.6%); QoQ (Prev. 0.6%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Feb. 24: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $0.03
  • Feb. 25: Circle Internet (CRCL), pre-market, $0.16
  • Feb. 25: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18
  • Feb. 25: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.13
  • Feb. 25: Nvidia (NVDA), post-market, $1.50
  • Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, -$0.11
  • Feb 26: TeraWulf (WULF), post-market, -$0.15
  • Feb. 26: American Bitcoin (ABTC), pre-market, $0.01
  • Feb. 26: Figure Technologies (FIGR), post-market,$0.20
  • Feb. 26: Sui Group (SUIG), post-market, $0.01
  • Feb. 26: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.49

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Feb. 23: DYdX Foundation to host its February analyst call.
  • Feb. 26: Lido DAO to host a tokenholder update call.
  • Feb. 26: Maple Finance to host an investor call.
  • Uniswap DAO is voting to enable protocol fees across all V3 pools and eight layer-2 networks. Voting ends Feb. 23.
  • ZKsync DAO is voting to allocate $4.1 million in ZK tokens for the 2026 audit reimbursement program (ZARP v2) to fund forward-looking protocol security audits and retroactively reimburse eligible 2025 costs. Voting ends Feb. 23.
  • GMX DAO is voting to neutralize CEX supply overhang by restructuring liquidity, setting a temporary $5 buy-wall, and pausing staking rewards until the token price reaches $90. Voting ends Feb. 24.
  • The Sandbox DAO is voting to pause operations and transfer control to the project team to realign with “The Sandbox 3.0”. The proposal is currently facing ~98% opposition from voters. Voting ends Feb. 25.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to create a customizable “Windfall Lotto Scene” template for land owners. Voting ends Feb. 25.
  • Unlock DAO is voting to delegate 2 million UP from the treasury to seven active community members to reliably secure a quorum on future proposals. Voting ends Feb. 26.
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 25: Humanity (H) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating supply worth $17.71 million.
  • Feb. 28: Grass (GRASS) to unlock 13.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.09 million.
  • Feb. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 7.94% of its circulating supply worth $39.34 million.
  • March 1: SUI$0.8909 to unock 1.13% of its circulating supply worth $40.97 million.
• Token Launches

Conferences

The final week of February 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal stretch for the altcoin market, with key technical setups, token unlocks, and network upgrades driving investor focus. While broader crypto sentiment remains cautious, some tokens still show potential for gains.

BeInCrypto has analysed three such altcoins that the investors should watch as February comes to an end.

Hedera (HBAR)

HBAR price is trading at $0.0959 at the time of writing, holding just above immediate support at the same level. The altcoin recently broke out of a bullish technical pattern but has not confirmed the move. Weak crypto market momentum has limited follow-through buying.

Muted market sentiment has kept HBAR subdued despite recent technical strength. However, Hedera announced in December 2025 a shift from cloud bucket storage to block nodes to improve network data access. Node operators have three months starting in February before the June upgrade. Infrastructure improvements can influence long-term token valuation.

If sentiment improves, HBAR price could break above $0.1030 and advance toward the projected 57% breakout target. Sustained buying would confirm bullish continuation. However, failure to gain momentum could push HBAR below $0.0901 support. A decline toward $0.0830 would invalidate the bullish outlook.

Sui (SUI)

SUI is a key cryptocurrency to watch this week as 53.82 million tokens are set to unlock. The release represents 0.54% of the total supply and is valued at more than $47.2 million. Token unlock events can increase volatility as additional circulating supply impacts short-term price action.

SUI price is trading at $0.891, while the Money Flow Index sits in the oversold zone. Oversold conditions often signal selling exhaustion and potential reversal setups. If investors absorb the new supply, SUI could exit its three-week consolidation range and break above $1.060, targeting $1.326.

However, downside risks remain if demand fails to match incoming supply. Losing the $0.874 support would signal renewed bearish pressure. In that case, the SUI price could decline toward $0.778. A deeper correction may extend losses to $0.629 if broader crypto market sentiment weakens further.

Kite (KITE)

KITE has consistently printed new all-time highs throughout February, drawing strong trader attention. The altcoin currently trades at $0.257 after reaching a fresh ATH of $0.288 last week. Sustained buying momentum and elevated trading volume have supported its upward price trajectory.

KITE remains roughly 12.3% below its recent peak, keeping bullish momentum intact. Technical structure suggests continued upside if capital inflows persist. A decisive breakout above $0.288 could attract additional momentum traders. In that scenario, KITE price may extend gains toward the next projected resistance at $0.328.

However, short-term profit booking could trigger corrective pressure. A decline below $0.240 would indicate weakening bullish control. The more critical level sits at $0.192 support. Losing that threshold would signal a broader trend reversal and increase the probability of an extended downside phase.

Currency markets opened on Monday with the US dollar under pressure, as traders assessed weekend developments related to US tariff policy. According to Reuters:

→ On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs exceeded his authority.
→ In response, the US president criticised the court and introduced a blanket 15% import levy. Trump also insisted that higher-tariff agreements with trade partners should remain in force.

Against this backdrop, USD/CAD slipped below the 1.3660 level today. This comes despite the upward move observed since 11 February (marked by purple lines), which developed after Canadian inflation slowed from 2.7% to 2.4%. The weaker inflation data weighed on the Canadian dollar, as markets began pricing in the possibility of future interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD Chart

When analysing USD/CAD on 29 January (with the market trading near the psychological 1.3500 level), we:

→ highlighted the presence of a long-term descending channel;
→ noted that price was close to its lower boundary, which could act as support;
→ considered a rebound scenario.

Since then, USD/CAD has formed two bullish reversals near the 1.3500 area. However, on both occasions bullish momentum appeared to fade around 1.3700.

The current price action resembles a rounding top pattern, suggesting that sellers may soon attempt to regain control and push towards the lower purple boundary in an effort to resume the broader long-term downtrend.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

TLDR:

• Missouri HB 2080 would create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fund managed by the State Treasurer under RSMo Chapter 30.
  
• Bitcoin donated to the fund must be held for a minimum of five years before it can be sold, transferred, or converted.
  
• The bill requires all Missouri government entities to accept Department of Revenue-approved cryptocurrency for taxes and fees.
  
• A biennial report detailing Bitcoin holdings, dollar value, security threats, and fund growth would be required under the bill.
  

Missouri’s 103rd General Assembly has introduced House Bill 2080, sponsored by Representative Keathley. The bill proposes creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fund within the state treasury under RSMo Chapter 30.

If passed, the State Treasurer would manage the fund and accept Bitcoin donations from eligible Missouri residents.

The bill also allows government agencies to accept cryptocurrency for tax and fee payments. This marks a notable step in state-level digital asset policy.

How the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fund Would Work

The bill defines Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset operating without a central authority. Under the proposed law, the State Treasurer would serve as custodian of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fund.

Contributions may come through gifts, grants, donations, bequests, or devises from Missouri residents or governmental entities.

Once Bitcoin enters state custody, it must remain held for a minimum of five years. After that mandatory period, the treasurer may transfer, sell, appropriate, or convert the assets. This holding requirement aims to prevent short-term speculation with public digital assets.

Security protocols are a core part of the bill’s framework. The treasurer would be required to use cold storage and other secure custodial technologies.

A qualified, U.S.-based third-party cryptocurrency entity may also be contracted to support fund security.

To maintain transparency, the treasurer must conduct regular audits and publish biennial reports. These reports must detail total Bitcoin holdings, U.S. dollar equivalents, fund growth, transactions, security threats, and eligible conversion amounts. Reports are due before December 31 of each even-numbered year.

Crypto Payments and Donor Recognition Under the Proposal

Beyond the reserve fund, the bill introduces broader cryptocurrency acceptance across Missouri. Section 30.1030 requires all governmental entities to accept approved cryptocurrency for taxes, fees, fines, assessments, and other charges. The Department of Revenue would determine which cryptocurrencies qualify.

Service fees tied to cryptocurrency transactions may be passed on to the payer. This gives government entities flexibility while still opening the door to digital asset payments. The bill does not specify which cryptocurrencies outside Bitcoin would qualify for this use.

The bill also creates a recognition program for donors. Upon request, the State Treasurer may issue a certificate of acknowledgment to individuals or organizations that contribute Bitcoin. Significant contributions could receive additional public recognition through a formal honors program.

Donor eligibility remains at the treasurer’s discretion. If a donor is found ineligible, their Bitcoin must be returned. The bill strictly prohibits transactions involving foreign countries, entities outside Missouri, or parties known to engage in illegal activities.

Only U.S.-based partners may assist in fund operations. Rulemaking authority granted under the bill would become void if related legislative oversight provisions are later ruled unconstitutional.

Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin may have strong odds of rising over the next 10 months.

Timothy Peterson’s model points to $122K Bitcoin

In a post on X, he noted that 50% of the past 24 months have closed positively for Bitcoin (BTC). Based on historical data going back to 2011, that reading implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.

Peterson estimates the average forward return at exp(60%) − 1, or about 82%. That would translate to a BTC price near $122,000 over the next 10 months, based on current levels.

He described the indicator as an informal cycle tool. It measures frequency, not magnitude. In other words, it counts how many months were positive, not how large the gains were.

Bitcoin could move sideways for months and the metric could still fall. Even so, Peterson says it has helped identify inflection points in past cycles.

A chart shared with the post shows that stronger readings in positive-month frequency have historically aligned with higher forward returns.

Nevertheless, the posts drew divided reactions from users on X.

One user called it a “rare confluence of historical data,” arguing the setup points to a major recovery by the end of 2026. The 82% expected return, they said, remains a guiding signal for long-term investors.

Others were more cautious. One user wrote “Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn about historical averages.”