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Why Crypto’s ‘Buy the Rumor’ Mantra No Longer Works

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Why Crypto’s ‘Buy the Rumor’ Mantra No Longer Works

I entered the crypto market at a time when Bitcoin traded around $6,000 — yes, that long ago. Back then, it existed in a no man’s land between experimentation and finance, and the market reacted to headlines or influential voices in a knee-jerk manner.

That wasn’t just my impression. Years later, a study analyzing Bitcoin and Dogecoin during the 2020–2021 cycle found statistically significant increases in price and trading volume on days when Musk posted about cryptocurrencies. The effect was especially pronounced for Dogecoin, whose volatility response was more than ten times stronger than that of Bitcoin.

Fast forward to today, and something feels different. Big news still happens. Prices still rise and fall. But the way the market responds has clearly changed. Below, I try to break down what’s actually different.

Headlines Used to Be the Market

Earlier crypto cycles were defined by immediacy. Liquidity was thinner, derivatives were far less dominant in price discovery, and positioning was far more visible in spot markets. As a result, price action clustered tightly around the moment news broke.

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To assess whether Bitcoin’s reactions to news were immediate or gradual, I compared price behavior around major headlines across different market cycles. I selected two high-impact events from earlier cycles and two events of comparable significance from the post-2024 halving period. For each case, I tracked price movements before and after the news and normalized the data to focus on reaction patterns rather than absolute price levels.

In February 2021, Tesla disclosed that it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, which was trading around $38,000. Within hours of the announcement, the price surged more than 15% in a single session to the level above $44,000. There was little ambiguity in how the market interpreted the news. The headline itself was the catalyst.

The same dynamic worked in reverse just a few months later. In May 2021, as China intensified its crackdown on Bitcoin mining, Bitcoin fell from roughly $40,000 to near $30,000 in a matter of days. Headlines triggered panic selling, forced liquidations, and cascading declines that felt sudden and overwhelming. Price didn’t drift lower — it collapsed.

In those markets, volatility wasn’t an exception. It was the baseline.

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How the Current Cycle Handles Big News

Can we say Bitcoin no longer reacts to news? Not exactly. But the way it reacts has clearly changed.

Take the regulatory shift surrounding Gary Gensler’s departure as Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — widely viewed as a meaningful inflection point for the crypto industry.

In November 2024, when news of his impending exit became public, Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$80,000s. Over the following weeks, price pushed higher to the $100,000 level. But the move unfolded gradually, with much of the appreciation taking place before the leadership change became official in January 2025.

There was neither a single breakout candle, nor sudden repricing at the moment of confirmation. Instead, the market embraced the development as part of a broader, already-expected regulatory shift.

A similar pattern emerged during the February 2025 macro-driven sell-off. As U.S. tariff announcements and rising global risk pushed markets into a risk-off mode, Bitcoin slipped from just above $100,000 to the mid-$90,000s. The decline was real, but measured and spread over several sessions rather than concentrated in a single shock. Unlike the China ban in 2021, there was no panic cascade and no sense of structural failure.Price fell, but it did so calmly.

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Volatility Spread Out Over Time

The contrast is telling. In 2021, major headlines produced immediate double-digit moves jostled around the news itself. In the current cycle, developments of similar importance have resulted in multi-day trends, with price often moving ahead of official announcements.

Bitcoin didn’t stop rising and falling. The charts point to a different shape of volatility — with smoother price moves and fewer headline-driven extremes. Market reactions no longer reflect that wide-eyed, hair-scratching surprise, but are increasingly driven by positioning, liquidity, and expectations.

In short, Bitcoin didn’t stop reacting — it stopped overreacting.

Where the Reaction Went

Much of the current market’s adjustment happens away from the visible spot price. Large players now use futures and options to build and hedge exposure. Capital flows in and out via spot Bitcoin ETFs, while big trades move through OTC desks rather than hitting the spot market right away. Together, these channels mute the black-and-white reactions that once defined earlier crypto cycles.

Large players and whales are still there, but their influence no longer reveals itself through obvious spot-market shocks. They can reposition quietly, change exposure without immediately forcing price to respond.

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It feels like the market has finally buried its emotional, headline-driven reactions in the past and matured toward a quieter process of repricing risk.

This shift is unfolding against a very different macro backdrop: tighter global liquidity, fewer expectations of automatic bailouts, and monetary policy focused on restraint rather than stimulus. Bitcoin, increasingly treated as a macro asset and accessed through regulated channels like ETFs, now responds more to liquidity conditions and capital flows than to isolated news events.

If you’re still expecting every major headline to trigger an instant breakout or crash, the market can feel broken. Step back, though, and a different picture emerges — one where the noise hasn’t vanished, but it no longer leads the story. What remains is a market learning to price risk with patience.

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Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin accelerates ETH sales

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Vitalik Buterin issues a blunt reality check to the biggest crypto networks

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin is offloading ether (ETH) worth millions, adding bearish pressure in an already weak market.

Buterin has sold 1,869 ether, worth $3.67 million, over two days, having withdrawn 3,500 ether from Aave, according to data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain.

Ether’s price has declined nearly 3% over the past 48 hours, hitting a 20-day low of $1,844 at one point early Monday, CoinDesk data shows. The token has been in a downtrend since hitting a high of over $4,900 in August last year.

Since Feb. 2, Buterin has supposedly sold almost over 8,000 ether. These sales follow a Jan. 30 announcement that he would withdraw and liquidate his 16,384 ether to finance ecosystem development, open-source software and other key initiatives while the Ethereum Foundation enters a “mild austerity” phase.

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Still, as of writing, Buterin held over 224,000 ether, worth $429 million, according to Arkham Intelligence.

While Buterin has been trimming his holdings, this supply is being gobbled up by the likes of ShapeShift Founder Erik Voorhees and a whale associated with crypto services provider Matrixport.

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Gold Price Rises to Highest Level Since Early February

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Gold Price Rises to Highest Level Since Early February

As shown on the XAU/USD chart today, gold climbed above $5,170, reaching its highest level so far this month. The main bullish factors are:

→ US tariff uncertainty – after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs on Friday, the US president reinstated them, initially at 10% and then announcing an increase to 15% on Saturday.

→ Heightened geopolitical tensions – media reports indicate that the US is prepared not only for targeted strikes against Iran but also for a longer military operation. The presence of two aircraft carrier groups in the region raises the risk of direct confrontation, traditionally boosting gold demand.

→ End of the Chinese holiday season – the People’s Bank of China, pursuing a reserve diversification strategy away from the US dollar, may continue purchasing physical gold.

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Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

On 17 February, analysis of gold price movements confirmed the long-term ascending channel and highlighted:

→ Bearish activity visible through the descending resistance line (R);
→ Bulls could rely on the channel’s lower boundary as support.

Indeed (as the arrow shows), the market remained within the channel. Moreover, bulls broke above the resistance line (R), which then acted as support around $4,960.

This formed an upward trajectory (black lines). Bullish behaviour is notable around $5,100, where price:

→ Gapped higher at the open;
→ Rose above the line dividing the lower half of the channel into two quarters.

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Considering the chart, it is reasonable to suggest bulls currently hold the initiative, supported by fundamentals. They may aim for the channel’s median, with $5,100 providing support in case of a pullback.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Bitcoin (BTC) price hit by swift Asia-hours selloff, stages partial recovery

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Bitcoin (BTC) price hit by swift Asia-hours selloff, stages partial recovery

The crypto market experienced a rare period of volatility during Asia hours on Monday, with bitcoin tumbling more than 5% to $64,270 shortly after midnight UTC before bouncing back to $66,300 by 11:00 UTC.

The selloff and subsequent bounce mirrored the action in U.S. equities. Futures tracking the S&P 500 index fell by 0.84% after opening on Sunday evening before starting to recover five hours later.

Gold futures did the opposite, rising on Sunday evening’s open to the highest since Jan. 30 before giving back some of those gains during European hours. Silver tracked the more expensive metal.

The surge in precious metals alongside weak performance in risk assets comes after U.S. President Donald Trump said he planned to impose new 15% global tariffs on trading partners and increased U.S. military presence near Iran fueled a rush toward haven assets.

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Altcoins succumbed to low liquidity conditions overnight as solana (SOL) and tumbled by between 7% and 8% before both bouncing back in European hours, a move that led to $270 million in altcoins liquidations, according to CoinGlass.

Derivatives positioning

  • Demand for leveraged products remains tepid, as evidenced by total crypto futures open interest staying below $100 billion for over two weeks.
  • Liquidations aren’t helping either. In the past 24 hours, crypto futures bets worth $500 million have been forcibly closed by exchanges due to margin shortages.
  • Traders continue to deploy capital in futures linked to tokens associated with traditional assets such as gold. For instance, open interest in Tether gold (XAUT) futures has increased by 14% in 24 hours even as BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, DOGE and others continue to see capital outflows.
  • ZEC and CRO are the only tokens boasting a 24-hour positive cumulative volume delta (CVD), a sign of buyer dominance. Meanwhile, BTC and other majors have negative CVDs, a sign of selling pressure overpowering buyers.
  • Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has jumped 9% to over 60%, indicating renewed jitters.
  • Traders chased bitcoin put options at levels $58,000, $60,000 and $62,000 as Trump’s new tariffs injected fresh uncertainty into the market.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts traded at a premium to calls across all time frames, indicating lingering downside fears.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market remains in the red on Monday after an exaggerated selloff was triggered by weakness in bitcoin and U.S. equities.
  • Low liquidity conditions led to pump.fun’s native PUMP token losing 8.5% of its value before staging a bounce, while layer zero (ZRO) began selling off early on Sunday, losing 16.5% over 24 hours before recovering at 04:00 UTC.
  • A small number of tokens outperformed the wider market. Restaking token ETHFI rose by more than 10% from Monday morning’s low.
  • Telegram-linked toncoin (TON) showed more stability overnight, falling by just 3.6% before bouncing by 4.9%.
  • CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) was the best-performing benchmark over the past 24 hours, losing just 1.84% while the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index and CoinDesk Computing Select Index lost 3.56% and 3.23%, respectively.
  • The altcoin market has largely been tracking bitcoin during February, though with a lack of liquidity that’s led to exaggerated moves. If bitcoin can put in a local low and bounce back above $70,000, for example, several altcoins are primed for extended upside after order books were wiped in early February.

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Vitalik Buterin Supports Ethereum Protocol Upgrade for Censorship Resistance

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Vitalik Buterin Supports Ethereum Protocol Upgrade for Censorship Resistance

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has thrown his support behind the Fork-Choice Enforced Inclusion Lists (FOCIL) upgrade, calling it a critical reinforcement of the network’s cypherpunk principles.

The protocol change, slated to headline the Hegota hard fork in 2026, aims to neutralize transaction censorship by forcing validators to include all valid transactions in the blockchain.

Specifically, FOCIL mandates the inclusion of valid transactions to prevent validators from filtering activity in response to external sanctions or pressure. The upgrade works synergistically with EIP-8141 to designate smart accounts and privacy protocols as first-class network citizens.

Developers have scheduled the mechanism for the Hegota upgrade, targeting a mainnet rollout in the second half of 2026.

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Why the Ethereum FOCIL Upgrade Matters In The Push for Neutral Blockspace


Developers confirmed FOCIL (EIP-7805) for the upcoming Hegota upgrade during a February 19 All Core Devs meeting initiated by researcher Alex Stokes.

The move targets the centralization risks inherent in current block production, where sophisticated actors can selectively filter transactions to comply with local regulations. Previously, following OFAC sanctions on Tornado Cash, compliant validators censored up to 90% of blocks that contained related interactions.

While Consensys and other major infrastructure providers have historically navigated these legal gray areas via voluntary exclusion, the protocol itself remained vulnerable.

FOCIL changes the consensus rules so that any block ignoring valid inclusion lists is immediately orphaned by the network. This ensures that the base layer remains neutral regardless of the validator’s jurisdiction.

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Vitalik Talks FOCIL Mechanism and Ethereum Validator Impact


In a recent post, Buterin stated that FOCIL “enables censorship-resistant rapid inclusion” by utilizing 17 random actors per slot to curate transaction lists.

Writing on X, he highlighted the synergy with EIP-8141, noting that the duo makes smart accounts, including key changes and gas sponsorship, “first-class citizens.”

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The technical specification requires that if a proposed block ignores valid transactions from these lists, the chain automatically forks away from it. This mechanism specifically addresses criticisms regarding Vitalik’s broader views on sovereignty, proving a commitment to neutral, uncapturable infrastructure.

Industry observers note that this guarantees any public-mempool transaction settles within a bounded timeframe.

According to the proposal, smart wallet transactions, gas-sponsored transfers, and privacy protocol interactions will share the same inclusion guarantees as standard ETH transfers.

How Will This Hit Ethereum Markets?


The complexity of the Hegota upgrade has drawn mixed reactions from the developer community. While Layer 2 developer Tim Clancy called it essential for neutral blockspace, others warn of potential friction with U.S. regulations if validators are forced to process sanctioned funds.

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The market response has been measured but stable, with Ether holding strong at suppressed levels as traders digest the long-term timeline.

Before Hegota, the network must successfully navigate the Glamsterdam hard fork, which focuses on Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (EPBS).

As investors analyze current crypto price predictions, the successful implementation of censorship resistance is increasingly viewed as a fundamental value driver.

The post Vitalik Buterin Supports Ethereum Protocol Upgrade for Censorship Resistance appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Austria’s FMA bans Kucoin EU over anti-money laundering, compliance staff shortfalls

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Austria's FMA bans Kucoin EU over anti-money laundering, compliance staff shortfalls

Austria’s financial regulator said it prohibited the European arm of KuCoin from conducting new business and onboarding customers after the crypto exchange lost key compliance staff just months after gaining a Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) permit to operate across the European Union.

KuCoin EU no longer has key function holders in anti-money laundering (AML) and prevention of terrorist financing roles, according to a statement from the regulator, the FMA, which granted the license in November. The freeze will last until the firm appoints the necessary compliance reporting staff, it said.

“The effective staffing of these key functions is a prerequisite for the orderly conduct of business,” the FMA said. The exchange is “prohibited with immediate effect from concluding business relationships of any kind with new customers and from concluding new contracts or new products within the scope of existing business relationships until these key functions have been appropriately filled.”

Kucoin said the positions are being filled as part of an expansion of the compliance team in Austria.

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“Our priority in Austria is to establish a governance framework that reflects the expectations of European regulators and the responsibility we carry toward the EU market,” said Sabina Liu, managing director of KuCoin EU. “By investing in experienced local compliance professionals, we are reinforcing a compliance-first operating model designed for long-term stability and transparency.”

Austria has become a popular destination for crypto exchanges looking to passport into Europe via MiCA, with the companies including Bitpanda, Bybit and Bitget establishing bases in Vienna.

When the license was granted, the FMA said the key functions of AML officer and sanctions compliance officer and their respective deputies were occupied in accordance with MiCA and the Financial Markets Anti-Money Laundering Act (FM-GwG; Finanzmarkt-Geldwäschegesetz).

“According to the FMA’s knowledge, this is no longer the case,” the FMA said.

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Pre-market trading stabilizes as bitcoin (BTC) reclaims $66,000

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Pre-market trading stabilizes as bitcoin (BTC) reclaims $66,000

Pre-market trading is showing signs of stabilization, with bitcoin rebounding above $66,000 after briefly falling to $64,400 on Sunday.

The move higher comes amid continued uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s proposed tariffs and U.S. tensions with Iran, factors that have weighed on broader risk sentiment.

Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, is down 2% in pre-market trading as it prepares to announce its 100th bitcoin purchase since embarking on its BTC treasury strategy in 2020.

Other crypto related equities have also pared earlier losses, with MARA Holdings (MARA), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH) are each down about 2%, trimming prior steeper declines. AI focused miners such as IREN (IREN) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) are faring slightly better, off roughly 1%.

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The sharp Sunday drop pushed the Fear and Greed Index down to 6, marking fresh lows and extending a seven day stretch of extreme fear. Despite that, bitcoin’s recovery suggests dip buying interest is emerging at lower levels.

The broader selloff appears relatively contained within tech. Invesco QQQ (QQQ) is down just 0.3%, while the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF, (IGV), is lower by 1% near $80, underscoring the ongoing correlation between bitcoin and software stocks.

Precious metals are the clear beneficiaries of the risk aversion. Gold has climbed above $5,100 per ounce and silver is approaching $87. Meanwhile, the DXY index is hovering just below 98, reflecting a firm US dollar, weighing on risk appetite.

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Oil slides as Trump 15% tariffs hit demand outlook

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Oil slides as Trump 15% tariffs hit demand outlook

Brent, WTI fell ~3–5% Monday after Trump’s 15% tariffs and easing Iran war risk.

Oil prices declined sharply on Monday as markets reacted to increased U.S. tariffs and developments in diplomatic negotiations with Iran, factors that analysts said are reshaping near-term expectations for crude demand and supply.

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Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude both fell, testing key technical support levels, according to market data.

President Donald Trump raised temporary tariffs from 10% to 15% on all U.S. imports over the weekend, according to a White House announcement. The increase followed a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down the previous tariff program.

Financial markets responded with gold prices rising and U.S. equity futures declining. Market analysts stated that oil prices were affected by the same risk-averse trading sentiment. Higher tariffs typically reduce trade volumes, weaken industrial output, and suppress fuel demand, factors that are considered bearish for crude prices, according to commodity analysts.

A third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, Oman’s foreign minister confirmed. Iranian officials have indicated the country may offer concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, according to diplomatic sources.

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Concerns about potential military conflict in the Middle East had recently supported higher oil prices, but that geopolitical risk premium has diminished as traders assign a lower probability to supply disruptions from the region, market observers said.

Goldman Sachs forecasts the global oil market will remain in surplus in 2026, assuming no major disruption to Iranian supply, the investment bank stated in a research note. The bank revised its fourth-quarter price forecasts, citing lower inventories among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries as a factor in its WTI adjustment.

Market direction remains uncertain in the short term due to unresolved factors including tariff policy, Iran diplomacy, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting continued volatility in oil prices, according to market analysts.

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Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours?

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Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 1

Crypto markets are flashing deep stress signals as geopolitical tensions surrounding a potential U.S. strike on Iran intensify and liquidity continues to drain from the system.

Summary

  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 5, signaling extreme panic as geopolitical tensions around a potential U.S. strike on Iran intensify.
  • Bitcoin has dropped below key technical levels, while the broader crypto market has erased over $2.22 trillion — down more than 50% from its peak, marking one of the largest drawdowns in history.
  • Despite the selloff, shrinking USDT supply down over $3 billion in 60 days suggests liquidity contraction that has historically appeared near late-stage market bottoms.

Iran strike fears spill into crypto markets

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 5 — “Extreme Fear”, one of the lowest readings in years, showing panic-level sentiment. Historically, such extreme readings have only appeared during major market dislocations, including the 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 bear market lows.

The collapse in sentiment mirrors Bitcoin’s sharp drop below key technical levels, reinforcing the view that traders are positioning defensively amid geopolitical uncertainty.

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Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 1

At the same time, prediction market Polymarket shows rising bets on possible U.S. military action in early March, with probabilities climbing steadily day by day, reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty priced into markets.

Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 2
Traders bet on when U.S. will strike Iran | Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, price action mirrors the anxiety. Bitcoin has fallen sharply from recent highs and is trading well below its 50-day moving average, while the broader crypto market has shed more than $2.22 trillion, down over 50% from its peak.

Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 3
Bitcoin price performance | Source: Crypto. News

In a widely shared post, Coin Bureau warned that “CRYPTO MAY BE HEADING TOWARD ITS LARGEST CRASH EVER,” noting that the current drawdown is now the second-biggest dollar loss in history, just $60 billion shy of the all-time record.

Yet liquidity data suggests a more nuanced picture. Another Coin Bureau analysis highlighted that USDT supply has fallen by more than $3 billion in 60 days, a contraction last seen during the FTX collapse.

Historically, shrinking stablecoin supply signals capital leaving the market but similar conditions in 2022 marked Bitcoin’s cycle bottom.

Ultimately, while a potential U.S. strike on Iran could trigger another wave of short-term volatility, the data suggests markets may already be pricing in extreme risk. With sentiment at capitulation levels, over $2.22 trillion erased, and stablecoin liquidity contracting to levels previously seen near cycle lows, the conditions resemble late-stage selloffs more than the early phases of a collapse.

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South Korea’s Central Bank Reaffirms Bank-First Stablecoin Model

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South Korea’s Central Bank Reaffirms Bank-First Stablecoin Model

South Korea’s central bank has reportedly renewed its push to keep Korean won-pegged stablecoin issuance in the hands of commercial banks, warning lawmakers that privately issued digital tokens could undermine monetary policy and create new foreign-exchange and financial-stability risks.

In a report submitted to South Korea’s National Assembly Strategy and Finance Committee, the Bank of Korea (BOK) described won stablecoins as “currency-like substitutes” and said their introduction must account not only for industrial benefits but also for monetary policy, foreign exchange stability and financial risks, according to local reporting. 

The central bank reiterated concerns that stablecoins could be used to bypass foreign exchange regulations, including prior reporting requirements, and argued that allowing non-bank entities to issue them independently could conflict with Korea’s separation of banking and commerce principles. 

It added that banks, which are subject to capital, governance and compliance standards, should be permitted first, with any expansion beyond banks proceeding gradually after risk assessments. 

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The report lands as lawmakers debate a delayed stablecoin framework, with one of the main sticking points being who should be eligible to issue won-pegged tokens and how much control banks should hold in any issuing entity.

Cointelegraph reached out to the Bank of Korea for more information, but had not received a response by publication.