Despite a dreary backdrop for crypto markets, Gemini co‑founder Tyler Winklevoss remains stubbornly optimistic about the industry. Publicly bullish, he has watched his company’s fortunes wobble as on‑chain data reveal a steady retreat from riskier bets by Winklevoss Capital. An on-chain tracker shows the family office’s Bitcoin exposure shrinking from roughly 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to under 11,000 BTC in February 2026, underscoring a cautious stance amid a broader downturn. Meanwhile, Gemini disclosed a more favorable revenue trajectory for 2025 in an SEC filing, pointing to resilience in user activity even as the firm reorients its business model toward regulated products and custody services. The duality—founder confidence versus a tightening operating environment—frames a pivotal moment for the exchange and its broader ecosystem.

Key takeaways

• Gemini’s leadership reshuffle is underway, with the company confirming a major executive transition and Cameron Winklevoss absorbing several duties previously handled by the COO, as an 8‑K filing indicates.
• Winklevoss Capital’s BTC balance has fallen sharply, from about 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to under 11,000 BTC in February 2026, according to on-chain trackers.
• Gemini’s SEC disclosure projects 2025 net revenue between $165 million and $175 million, up from $141 million in 2024, with roughly 600,000 monthly transacting users—an indicator of user activity despite headwinds.
• The firm is cutting up to 25% of its staff and narrowing its geographic focus to the US and Singapore, exiting the UK, EU, and Australia to streamline operations.
• Bloomberg’s report highlights Gemini’s shrinking market share in January 2026 and signals a pivot toward a CFTC‑regulated prediction markets platform, custody services, and other regulated offerings.
• Market sentiment in the crypto space remains subdued, with miners selling BTC reserves, spot ETFs under pressure, and fear metrics at elevated levels, underscoring a difficult macro backdrop.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Bearish

Market context: The sector is contending with a harsh price environment and liquidity constraints. Miners such as Bitdeer have liquidated BTC treasuries, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled in recent weeks, and sentiment gauges have sunk to extreme fear, underscoring a challenging macro and liquidity backdrop for crypto businesses.

Why it matters

The sequence of events at Gemini—costs rising sharply, leadership changes, and a strategic pivot toward regulated products—offers a window into how crypto platforms are recalibrating in a strained market. The company’s 8‑K filing confirms a substantial leadership shakeup, with Cameron Winklevoss stepping into expanded operational responsibilities as interim executives assume key financial and legal roles. This shift occurs as the firm emphasizes a pivot toward a CFTC‑regulated prediction markets framework, in addition to custody and credit services. The move reflects a broader industry trend: firms seeking to anchor themselves in regulated domains to navigate an environment of heightened scrutiny and thinning liquidity.

On the capital side, Winklevoss Capital’s on‑chain activity provides a contrasting counterpoint to the public optimism voiced by Tyler Winklevoss. The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) balance reduction signals a recalibration of risk and a possible shift away from treasury allocations that could constrain future fundraising or growth initiatives. The decline from roughly 23,000 BTC to under 11,000 BTC suggests a deliberate stance on reserve management during a protracted downturn, aligning with a broader pattern of institutions reassessing crypto exposure in a market characterized by volatility and slower transactional growth.

Gemini’s SEC filing paints a more constructive picture of fundamentals. Projected 2025 net revenue of $165–$175 million, up from $141 million in 2024, paired with about 600,000 monthly transacting users, indicates sustained consumer activity and a revenue base that may enable profitable scaling via regulated products. Yet the accompanying rise in operating expenses—anticipated at $520–$530 million versus $308 million a year earlier—highlights the heavy investment needed to retool the business for a compliant, diversified product suite. This cost trajectory underscores the complexity of balancing growth with compliance costs in a highly regulated space.

The market backdrop helps explain why the firm’s pivot has gained attention. Bloomberg’s reporting that Gemini’s spot market share contracted to around 0.1% in January, down from roughly 0.6% in June 2025, underscores the competitive pressures facing mid‑sized exchanges trying to maintain relevance when price action remains volatile and liquidity scarce. The narrative around pivoting away from pure exchange activity toward regulated futures, custody, and other services adds a layer of strategic nuance to a company still seeking scale post‑IPO volatility and in the face of tighter capital markets.

From a sentiment standpoint, the crypto ecosystem has drifted toward risk aversion. While some high‑conviction Bitcoin holders continue to accumulate, the chorus of caution—driven by macro headwinds, regulatory skepticism, and a string of high‑profile corporate restructurings—creates a portrait of a market that values durability and compliance over rapid expansion. The divergence between Winklevosses’ public optimism and the industry’s cautious mood captures a central tension that may define Gemini’s trajectory in the near term: endurance and recalibration over expansion at any cost.

Beyond Gemini, investors and builders are watching whether the CFTC‑regulated prediction markets platform gains traction, whether custody and card offerings scale as intended, and how the firm balances staff costs with growth ambitions. The interplay between front‑line product delivery and back‑end risk controls will be a critical determinant of whether Gemini can reestablish momentum in a market where even the most established players face meaningful headwinds.

What to watch next

• Watch for updates to Gemini’s 8‑K and other regulatory filings that detail the extent of leadership realignment and the status of the COO/CFO/CLO transitions.
• Monitor progress on the planned CFTC‑regulated prediction markets platform, as well as the custody and card services roadmap, to assess how the pivot translates into revenue diversification.
• Track any additional changes to BTC exposure via Winklevoss Capital or related entities, and assess how these moves interact with Gemini’s product strategy and capital needs.
• Note further staff adjustments and regional regrouping announcements, particularly any new US or Singapore initiatives that replace previous international expansions.
• Keep an eye on macro market signals—including ETF flows, miner behavior, and sentiment indices—that could influence the pacing of Gemini’s turnaround efforts.

Sources & verification

• Gemini’s 8‑K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (gemi-20260217.htm).
• Arkham on-chain tracker for Winklevoss Capital’s BTC balance and the decline from ~23,000 BTC to under 11,000 BTC (Arkham explorer: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/winklevoss-capital).
• Bloomberg report detailing Gemini’s shrinking market share and pivot toward regulated offerings (article linked in the original reporting).
• Cointelegraph reporting on Gemini’s staff reductions and regional focus shift (Feb 5, 2026), and leadership moves (Cameron Winklevoss absorbing COO duties).
• Spot market and investor sentiment references, including mentions of Bitdeer and Fear & Greed Index dynamics covered in the linked articles.

Gemini pivots amid market downturn

Despite a brutal sell‑off in risk assets, Gemini’s leadership remains focused on repositioning the platform for a more regulated, durable business model. The firm’s 8‑K filing confirms a sweeping leadership change, with Cameron Winklevoss assuming a broader operational remit as the company also navigates the departure of its chief operating officer, chief financial officer, and chief legal officer. The immediate implication is a management team recalibrating priorities toward regulated products, custody, and other services designed to build resilience in a market defined by caution and capital tightening. The company’s public messaging has stressed continuity, even as it restructures around a more compliance‑driven product strategy, and in parallel, on‑chain data shows the family office adjusting its Bitcoin holdings in response to changing risk appetites (CRYPTO: BTC).

Gemini’s revenue outlook, reflected in the SEC filing, suggests a company with growing user engagement. The prospect of 600,000 monthly transacting users and a net revenue range of $165–$175 million for 2025 indicates that a significant portion of its business remains anchored in consumer activity, even as costs rise. The pronounced increase in operating expenses signals front‑end investments in compliance, risk management, and product development—areas likely essential to delivering regulated solutions that could attract institutional and retail participants seeking safer exposure.

On the external side, the market’s mood has been persistently bearish, with miners and token holders exhibiting a cautious stance. The Arkham data point on Winklevoss Capital’s BTC balance and the Bloomberg note on Gemini’s shrinking spot market share reflect a sector grappling with liquidity and competition in a landscape where new regulatory frameworks could redefine how exchanges compete. In this context, Gemini’s pivot toward regulated services may be as much a defensive maneuver as it is a strategic reorientation—an effort to align with stricter oversight while leveraging a profitable, compliant product slate that could weather cyclical downturns more effectively than a pure‑play exchange model.

The path forward will hinge on execution: can Gemini scale its custody and regulated product offerings, integrate the predicted markets platform with robust risk controls, and sustain user growth amid ongoing cost discipline? The answers will influence whether Winklevoss’s optimism translates into a durable edge in an era where investors demand transparency, regulatory alignment, and tangible, near‑term value creation from crypto platforms.

PUMP and HYPE are among the poorest performers, while Pippin has defied the market correction once again.

Bitcoin’s weekend calmness came to an end once the legacy futures markets opened, and the asset tumbled below $64,500 for the first time in over two weeks before bouncing back by a couple of grand.

Most altcoins followed suit, with SOL, HYPE, and BCH being among the worst performers from the larger caps.

BTC Dipped Below $64.5K

The previous weekend was a lot more positive for the primary cryptocurrency as it jumped past $70,000 and to almost $71,000 for the first time in about a week. However, the downtrend began on Monday with a rejection and a retracement to under $67,500. After a few unsuccessful rebound attempts, BTC slipped once again on Thursday to $65,600.

The bulls finally intervened at this point and helped bitcoin recover to almost $69,000 during the weekend. It remained in a tight range between $67,500 and $68,500 for most of Saturday and Sunday.

However, there was an elephant in the room that had to be addressed. After the US Supreme Court ruled against some of his tariffs, President Trump imposed a new global taxation of 10%, which he later wanted to raise to 15%.

Although BTC remained unfazed at first, it started to unravel once the legacy futures market opened late on Sunday and early Monday. In the span of an hour or so, bitcoin slumped by four grand to a 17-day low of $64,300, leaving millions in liquidations.

It reacted well to this crash and now sits above $66,000. Nevertheless, it’s still 2.5% down on the day, and its market cap has slipped to $1.325 trillion on CG. Its dominance over the alts stands close to 56.5%.

Alts Bleed Out

Ethereum fell from almost $2,000 to $1,850 before it bounced to just over $1,900 as of now. XRP is down by over 2% to $1.40. BNB, DOGE, ADA, and LINK have marked similar losses. Even more painful declines are evident from BCH, SOL, and HYPE, with losses of up to 6%.

In contrast, PIPPIN has skyrocketed by over 23% daily to over $0.72. The asset has defied the broader market’s correction once again. TON and M are also slightly in the green.

The total crypto market cap, though, has lost over $60 billion and is down to $2.350 trillion on CG.

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin is offloading ether (ETH) worth millions, adding bearish pressure in an already weak market.

Buterin has sold 1,869 ether, worth $3.67 million, over two days, having withdrawn 3,500 ether from Aave, according to data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain.

Ether’s price has declined nearly 3% over the past 48 hours, hitting a 20-day low of $1,844 at one point early Monday, CoinDesk data shows. The token has been in a downtrend since hitting a high of over $4,900 in August last year.

Since Feb. 2, Buterin has supposedly sold almost over 8,000 ether. These sales follow a Jan. 30 announcement that he would withdraw and liquidate his 16,384 ether to finance ecosystem development, open-source software and other key initiatives while the Ethereum Foundation enters a “mild austerity” phase.

Still, as of writing, Buterin held over 224,000 ether, worth $429 million, according to Arkham Intelligence.

While Buterin has been trimming his holdings, this supply is being gobbled up by the likes of ShapeShift Founder Erik Voorhees and a whale associated with crypto services provider Matrixport.

As shown on the XAU/USD chart today, gold climbed above $5,170, reaching its highest level so far this month. The main bullish factors are:

→ US tariff uncertainty – after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs on Friday, the US president reinstated them, initially at 10% and then announcing an increase to 15% on Saturday.

→ Heightened geopolitical tensions – media reports indicate that the US is prepared not only for targeted strikes against Iran but also for a longer military operation. The presence of two aircraft carrier groups in the region raises the risk of direct confrontation, traditionally boosting gold demand.

→ End of the Chinese holiday season – the People’s Bank of China, pursuing a reserve diversification strategy away from the US dollar, may continue purchasing physical gold.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

On 17 February, analysis of gold price movements confirmed the long-term ascending channel and highlighted:

→ Bearish activity visible through the descending resistance line (R);
→ Bulls could rely on the channel’s lower boundary as support.

Indeed (as the arrow shows), the market remained within the channel. Moreover, bulls broke above the resistance line (R), which then acted as support around $4,960.

This formed an upward trajectory (black lines). Bullish behaviour is notable around $5,100, where price:

→ Gapped higher at the open;
→ Rose above the line dividing the lower half of the channel into two quarters.

Considering the chart, it is reasonable to suggest bulls currently hold the initiative, supported by fundamentals. They may aim for the channel’s median, with $5,100 providing support in case of a pullback.

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The crypto market experienced a rare period of volatility during Asia hours on Monday, with bitcoin BTC$66,186.44 tumbling more than 5% to $64,270 shortly after midnight UTC before bouncing back to $66,300 by 11:00 UTC.

The selloff and subsequent bounce mirrored the action in U.S. equities. Futures tracking the S&P 500 index fell by 0.84% after opening on Sunday evening before starting to recover five hours later.

Gold futures did the opposite, rising on Sunday evening’s open to the highest since Jan. 30 before giving back some of those gains during European hours. Silver tracked the more expensive metal.

The surge in precious metals alongside weak performance in risk assets comes after U.S. President Donald Trump said he planned to impose new 15% global tariffs on trading partners and increased U.S. military presence near Iran fueled a rush toward haven assets.

Altcoins succumbed to low liquidity conditions overnight as solana (SOL) and SUI$0.9065 tumbled by between 7% and 8% before both bouncing back in European hours, a move that led to $270 million in altcoins liquidations, according to CoinGlass.

Derivatives positioning

• Demand for leveraged products remains tepid, as evidenced by total crypto futures open interest staying below $100 billion for over two weeks.
• Liquidations aren’t helping either. In the past 24 hours, crypto futures bets worth $500 million have been forcibly closed by exchanges due to margin shortages.
• Traders continue to deploy capital in futures linked to tokens associated with traditional assets such as gold. For instance, open interest in Tether gold (XAUT) futures has increased by 14% in 24 hours even as BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, DOGE and others continue to see capital outflows.
• ZEC and CRO are the only tokens boasting a 24-hour positive cumulative volume delta (CVD), a sign of buyer dominance. Meanwhile, BTC and other majors have negative CVDs, a sign of selling pressure overpowering buyers.
• Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has jumped 9% to over 60%, indicating renewed jitters.
• Traders chased bitcoin put options at levels $58,000, $60,000 and $62,000 as Trump’s new tariffs injected fresh uncertainty into the market.
• On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts traded at a premium to calls across all time frames, indicating lingering downside fears.

Token talk

• The altcoin market remains in the red on Monday after an exaggerated selloff was triggered by weakness in bitcoin and U.S. equities.
• Low liquidity conditions led to pump.fun’s native PUMP token losing 8.5% of its value before staging a bounce, while layer zero (ZRO) began selling off early on Sunday, losing 16.5% over 24 hours before recovering at 04:00 UTC.
• A small number of tokens outperformed the wider market. Restaking token ETHFI rose by more than 10% from Monday morning’s low.
• Telegram-linked toncoin (TON) showed more stability overnight, falling by just 3.6% before bouncing by 4.9%.
• CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) was the best-performing benchmark over the past 24 hours, losing just 1.84% while the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index and CoinDesk Computing Select Index lost 3.56% and 3.23%, respectively.
• The altcoin market has largely been tracking bitcoin during February, though with a lack of liquidity that’s led to exaggerated moves. If bitcoin can put in a local low and bounce back above $70,000, for example, several altcoins are primed for extended upside after order books were wiped in early February.

Austria’s financial regulator said it prohibited the European arm of KuCoin from conducting new business and onboarding customers after the crypto exchange lost key compliance staff just months after gaining a Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) permit to operate across the European Union.

KuCoin EU no longer has key function holders in anti-money laundering (AML) and prevention of terrorist financing roles, according to a statement from the regulator, the FMA, which granted the license in November. The freeze will last until the firm appoints the necessary compliance reporting staff, it said.

“The effective staffing of these key functions is a prerequisite for the orderly conduct of business,” the FMA said. The exchange is “prohibited with immediate effect from concluding business relationships of any kind with new customers and from concluding new contracts or new products within the scope of existing business relationships until these key functions have been appropriately filled.”

Kucoin said the positions are being filled as part of an expansion of the compliance team in Austria.

“Our priority in Austria is to establish a governance framework that reflects the expectations of European regulators and the responsibility we carry toward the EU market,” said Sabina Liu, managing director of KuCoin EU. “By investing in experienced local compliance professionals, we are reinforcing a compliance-first operating model designed for long-term stability and transparency.”

Austria has become a popular destination for crypto exchanges looking to passport into Europe via MiCA, with the companies including Bitpanda, Bybit and Bitget establishing bases in Vienna.

When the license was granted, the FMA said the key functions of AML officer and sanctions compliance officer and their respective deputies were occupied in accordance with MiCA and the Financial Markets Anti-Money Laundering Act (FM-GwG; Finanzmarkt-Geldwäschegesetz).

“According to the FMA’s knowledge, this is no longer the case,” the FMA said.

Pre-market trading is showing signs of stabilization, with bitcoin rebounding above $66,000 after briefly falling to $64,400 on Sunday.

The move higher comes amid continued uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s proposed tariffs and U.S. tensions with Iran, factors that have weighed on broader risk sentiment.

Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, is down 2% in pre-market trading as it prepares to announce its 100th bitcoin purchase since embarking on its BTC treasury strategy in 2020.

Other crypto related equities have also pared earlier losses, with MARA Holdings (MARA), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH) are each down about 2%, trimming prior steeper declines. AI focused miners such as IREN (IREN) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) are faring slightly better, off roughly 1%.

The sharp Sunday drop pushed the Fear and Greed Index down to 6, marking fresh lows and extending a seven day stretch of extreme fear. Despite that, bitcoin’s recovery suggests dip buying interest is emerging at lower levels.

The broader selloff appears relatively contained within tech. Invesco QQQ (QQQ) is down just 0.3%, while the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF, (IGV), is lower by 1% near $80, underscoring the ongoing correlation between bitcoin and software stocks.

Precious metals are the clear beneficiaries of the risk aversion. Gold has climbed above $5,100 per ounce and silver is approaching $87. Meanwhile, the DXY index is hovering just below 98, reflecting a firm US dollar, weighing on risk appetite.

Brent, WTI fell ~3–5% Monday after Trump’s 15% tariffs and easing Iran war risk.

President Donald Trump raised temporary tariffs from 10% to 15% on all U.S. imports over the weekend, according to a White House announcement. The increase followed a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down the previous tariff program.

Financial markets responded with gold prices rising and U.S. equity futures declining. Market analysts stated that oil prices were affected by the same risk-averse trading sentiment. Higher tariffs typically reduce trade volumes, weaken industrial output, and suppress fuel demand, factors that are considered bearish for crude prices, according to commodity analysts.

A third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, Oman’s foreign minister confirmed. Iranian officials have indicated the country may offer concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, according to diplomatic sources.

Concerns about potential military conflict in the Middle East had recently supported higher oil prices, but that geopolitical risk premium has diminished as traders assign a lower probability to supply disruptions from the region, market observers said.

Goldman Sachs forecasts the global oil market will remain in surplus in 2026, assuming no major disruption to Iranian supply, the investment bank stated in a research note. The bank revised its fourth-quarter price forecasts, citing lower inventories among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries as a factor in its WTI adjustment.

Market direction remains uncertain in the short term due to unresolved factors including tariff policy, Iran diplomacy, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting continued volatility in oil prices, according to market analysts.

Crypto markets are flashing deep stress signals as geopolitical tensions surrounding a potential U.S. strike on Iran intensify and liquidity continues to drain from the system.

Iran strike fears spill into crypto markets

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 5 — “Extreme Fear”, one of the lowest readings in years, showing panic-level sentiment. Historically, such extreme readings have only appeared during major market dislocations, including the 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 bear market lows.

The collapse in sentiment mirrors Bitcoin’s sharp drop below key technical levels, reinforcing the view that traders are positioning defensively amid geopolitical uncertainty.

At the same time, prediction market Polymarket shows rising bets on possible U.S. military action in early March, with probabilities climbing steadily day by day, reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty priced into markets.

Meanwhile, price action mirrors the anxiety. Bitcoin has fallen sharply from recent highs and is trading well below its 50-day moving average, while the broader crypto market has shed more than $2.22 trillion, down over 50% from its peak.

In a widely shared post, Coin Bureau warned that “CRYPTO MAY BE HEADING TOWARD ITS LARGEST CRASH EVER,” noting that the current drawdown is now the second-biggest dollar loss in history, just $60 billion shy of the all-time record.

Yet liquidity data suggests a more nuanced picture. Another Coin Bureau analysis highlighted that USDT supply has fallen by more than $3 billion in 60 days, a contraction last seen during the FTX collapse.

Historically, shrinking stablecoin supply signals capital leaving the market but similar conditions in 2022 marked Bitcoin’s cycle bottom.

Ultimately, while a potential U.S. strike on Iran could trigger another wave of short-term volatility, the data suggests markets may already be pricing in extreme risk. With sentiment at capitulation levels, over $2.22 trillion erased, and stablecoin liquidity contracting to levels previously seen near cycle lows, the conditions resemble late-stage selloffs more than the early phases of a collapse.