Bitcoin price is consolidating after recent volatility, trading within a neutral structure. The crypto king has struggled to establish a decisive trend over the past two weeks. 

Currently, Bitcoin remains rangebound, reflecting balanced pressure between buyers and sellers. This equilibrium suggests that investor behavior from here will likely determine the next directional move.

Worry From Whales, Support From MTHs

On-chain data indicates that younger holders are choosing to HODL rather than exit positions. HODL waves show that the supply held by investors aged one to three months has declined by 5%. This supply has matured into the three- to six-month cohort, signaling reduced short-term selling.

This shift reflects improving holder resilience despite recent drawdowns. Bitcoin investors who remain underwater are not engaging in panic-driven liquidation. Instead, coins are aging into longer-term categories, which historically supports price stability. Reduced short-term distribution often limits downside volatility and strengthens structural support zones.

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While some holders’ behavior appears stable, whale activity presents a contrasting dynamic. Since February 13, large holders have moved approximately 900,000 BTC, valued at $60 billion. This transfer activity suggests that significant capital may be preparing to exit positions following limited price appreciation.

Persistent whale selling can introduce supply shocks, particularly in range-bound conditions. Large distributions increase overhead resistance and weaken bullish momentum. If critical holders grow increasingly impatient, sustained selling pressure could undermine BTC’s stability and elevate the probability of a broader correction.

BTC Price Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?

Bitcoin is trading at $66,188 at the time of writing after slipping below the $67,394 support level. The asset remains confined between $65,000 and $70,000. This consolidation range reflects ongoing equilibrium. A decisive breakout or breakdown will likely define the next major move in Bitcoin price.

Over the past two weeks, BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price action shows no clear directional bias. However, continued whale selling could tip the balance downward. A breakdown below the triangle support may send Bitcoin toward $64,142. Losing that level would expose BTC to a potential decline toward $60,000. Notably, a recent long lower wick signaled dip buying interest.

Conversely, if whale distribution slows and mid-term holders transition into long-term holders, recovery prospects could strengthen. Renewed demand may trigger a breakout above the range resistance. A sustained move toward $71,963 would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook. Clearing that level could extend gains toward $74,789, restoring bullish momentum in the broader crypto market.

Key Takeaways

• HB 2080 authorizes the State Treasurer to custody Bitcoin for a minimum of five years.
• The fund relies exclusively on private gifts and grants, prohibiting taxpayer funding for purchases.
• Missouri joins Arizona and Texas in competing to formalize state-level digital asset reserves.

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1917.67, down 2.4% (-47.79) since 4 p.m. ET on Friday.

Two of the 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: AAVE (+1.7%) and UNI (+0.5%).

Laggards: SUI (-4.8%) and SOL (-4.8%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

• Ethereum traded around $1,921 as Bitcoin bounced from lows of $65,000.
• Analysts are bullish on ETH despite $36 million in weekly outflows from ETH investment products.
• ETH could revisit $1,500 or bounce as macro pressures ease to target $3,000.

Ethereum price is struggling to break above $2,000 as losses seen over the weekend extend into early US trading hours on Monday.

Bitcoin fell to below $65,000, ETH dropped to $1,848, and Solana pared gains to under $80.

The sell-off across crypto has accelerated in recent weeks amid negative sentiment, resulting in huge capital outflows from crypto-related investment products.

Ethereum sees further capital outflows

Downside pressure for BTC has cascaded into top altcoins, and the latest down move for ETH coincides with losses for US equity futures ahead of opening on Monday, February 23, 2026.

Risk-off sentiment has flared after an initial risk-on outlook hit markets amid the US Supreme Court’s decision on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The dump for top coins alludes to overall weakness, and one indicator of this trajectory is the fifth consecutive week of net outflows from digital asset investment products.

Ethereum hit over $36 million in weekly outflows last week, bringing month-to-date flows to -$117 million and year-to-date flows to over $494 million.

That marked a fifth consecutive week of outflows and coincides with ETH struggling to decisively breach the $2k level.

Analysts on ETH price outlook

ETH’s slump below $2k aligns with institutional selling and macro and geopolitical risks.

According to analysts at QCP, investors have priced in new tariff risks as well as geopolitical tensions, and ETH has shown weakness similar to BTC.

ETH has witnessed nearly $500 million in ETF outflows year-to-date, but rather than being bearish about it, analysts say outflows mirror trade unwinds and are not a “structural exit”.

“Options still show a downside bias in both $BTC and $ETH, but skew is less extreme, suggesting positioning is cleaner and panic hedging has eased. ETF outflows also appear more consistent with trade unwinds than a structural exit,” QCP posted on X.

Short-term price movement for ETH may also align with whale selling, with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin among those who have recently sold ETH.

Crypto Rover says “large ETH whales are underwater,” and previous instances have historically highlighted bottoms.

Large $ETH whales are underwater. 🐋

Last 3 times this happened it marked bottoms. pic.twitter.com/FfNZv7QuPK

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) February 23, 2026

Despite this, some crypto treasury companies, led by Bitmine, have doubled down on the altcoin as they weigh the “buy-the-dip” opportunity.

Whales who sold earlier, like ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees, are also buying ETH again.

As such, there’s a possibility the coin may fail to reclaim and hold above the psychological level, risking further declines to the $1,500 level.

However, recovery for Bitcoin to above $74,000 could signal a shift in broader market sentiment. Ethereum will target $2,300-$3,000 as initial supply wall risk areas.

Several Russian-linked crypto exchanges continue to allow transactions linked to sanctioned entities, according to a report published Friday by blockchain analytics firm Elliptic.

The report outlines how certain platforms enable users to convert rubles into cryptocurrencies, transfer funds across borders outside traditional banking channels, and cash out through overseas brokers or exchanges. Elliptic said these transaction pathways can reduce reliance on the conventional financial system and complicate sanctions enforcement.

Last month, a separate Elliptic report revealed that while Tether’s USDT has become a key asset for Russia to evade Western sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion in 2022, transactions with the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 surpassed $100 billion. Since Russia’s full-scale Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed sanctions targeting energy, finance and strategic goods. The EU froze roughly $250 billion of Russian assets and the U.K., nearly $35 billion.

Elliptic’s report follows another one by TRM Labs last week that showed illicit entities received $141 billion in stablecoins in 2025, the highest in five years, and more than half of which was linked to the ruble-pegged A7A5 token, whose Russian executives dispute claims that their operations are illegal. Sanctions-related activity accounted for 86% of illicit crypto flows, TRM’s report said, with bad actors mostly relying on stablecoin platforms.

Among the exchanges highlighted in Elliptic’s report is Bitpapa, a UAE-registered peer-to-peer platform primarily serving Russian users. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Bitpapa in March 2024.

Elliptic estimated that roughly 9.7% of the exchange’s outgoing crypto flows were sent to sanctioned entities, including about 5% to the Russia-linked exchange Garantex. The firm also alleges that Bitpapa rotates wallet addresses in a manner designed to hinder transaction tracing.

The report also named ABCeX, which operates from Moscow’s Federation Tower, and said it has processed at least $11 billion in crypto transactions, including flows to sanctioned exchanges such as Garantex and Aifory Pro.

Other exchanges cited include Rapira, which Elliptic says processed more than $72 million in transactions with sanctioned exchange Grinex, and Aifory Pro, a service offering cash-to-crypto transactions in Moscow, Dubai and Türkiye.

The findings highlight the ongoing role of crypto infrastructure in cross-border financial activity linked to sanctioned actors, even as regulators increase scrutiny of the sector.

BitMine stock price remains in a tight range this week, even as Ethereum dropped to a multi-week low of $1,880.

The BMNR stock was trading at the key support level at $20, down by almost 90% from its highest level in July last year.

BitMine stock has wavered as the company has continued accumulating Ethereum (ETH). Data shows that the company has bought over 168,000 Ethereum tokens in the last 30 days, bringing the cumulative total to 4.7 million, which are currently worth over $8.3 billion.

The company’s goal is to ultimately own 5% of ETH coins and generate a monthly return through staking.  Data compiled by StakingRewards shows that the average staking return on Ethereum is about 2.9%, meaning that the company will be generating over $350 million in annual staking revenue.

BitMine also holds over $600 million in cash, which it has invested in short-term government bonds, which earn over 4%.

At the same time, Tom Lee has invested in other companies, including Beast Industries, the company owned by Mr. Beast. It offers numerous products, including chocolate bars and financial services. It recently acquired Step, a company that provides financial literacy solutions to young people.

BitMine has access to more money to make investments as its shareholders recently increased its authorized shares to 50 billion. This means that it may issue additional shares to make these investments. 

This performance, together with Ethereum’s track record of bouncing back, explains why top institutional investors have continued buying the stock. Some of the top holders of the BMNR stock are companies like Morgan Stanley, ARK Investment, BlackRock, Citadel, and Goldman Sachs. 

The main risk facing the BMNR stock price is the ongoing Ethereum price crash and the rising short interest. Short interest jumped to 6%, meaning that many investors anticipate it to keep falling. 

BitMine stock price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the BMNR stock price has slumped in the past few months. This retreat has pushed it to move below all moving averages, a sign that bears have prevailed. 

A closer look shows that the stock has formed a giant falling wedge pattern. This pattern is made up of two descending and converging trendlines. A bullish breakout normally happens when the two lines are about to converge.

Therefore, the most likely BitMine stock price forecast is bullish, with the initial target being at $35, its highest level in January this year. 

The MicroStrategy stock price has staged a notable rebound in recent weeks, but that recovery may now be facing its biggest test. With markets set to reopen for the last week of February, the stock remains highly sensitive to both Bitcoin’s weakness and shifting investor sentiment.

MSTR is currently trading near $131 after rebounding nearly 30% from its February 5 low. Despite this bounce, the stock is still down about 19% over the past month and more than 60% over the past three months.

This weak recovery now faces mounting pressure from 100% institutional exit disclosures, weakening momentum, and key technical resistance.

Institutional Selling Raises New Questions About MicroStrategy Recovery

The biggest warning sign for MicroStrategy stock price is coming from institutional investors themselves, who have recently revealed their positioning from the last quarter.

Recent 13F filings (lagging disclosures) reveal a clear pattern of mid-sized investors reducing or fully exiting Strategy positions.

Angeles Wealth Management and Wealth Watch Advisors both exited completely, cutting their holdings by 100%. Caitlin John LLC reduced its position by 96.54%, leaving only a negligible stake.

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Other major investors followed similar paths. Kovitz Investment Group cut its share count by 19.31%, while the value of its holdings fell nearly 62%.

Atomi Financial Group also reduced its exposure by 18.61%, with its position value dropping more than 61%. Even firms that maintained positions suffered heavy losses. Invesco increased its holdings by 14.12%, but the total value of its investment still fell by over 46%.

Such exits often signal declining confidence, especially when the news breaks during rebounds.

At the same time, MSTR’s technical structure is showing a hidden bearish divergence. Between November 18 and February 20, the stock formed a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher high.

RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of price movements.

Because this divergence is appearing within a broader downtrend, it suggests the recent rebound may be losing strength.
This signal would strengthen if the stock fails to break above key resistance near $135.

These filings reveal positioning during the recent decline (reported in the previous quarter), highlighting weakening institutional conviction.

Declining Volume Suggests Weak Conviction Behind the Recovery

Technical volume indicators suggest that remaining support may not be strong.

One key metric is On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure. Since February 9, the MicroStrategy stock price has moved mostly sideways, but OBV has fallen much more sharply.

This shows that selling volume has been stronger than buying volume during the recovery.

When OBV declines faster than price, it usually signals weakening conviction among investors, possibly retail. This suggests that fewer participants are willing to accumulate the MSTR stock at current levels.

However, not all signals are negative. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures capital inflows and dip-buying activity, shows limited strength.

Between February 5 and February 19, MFI formed a slightly higher high even as the price struggled to continue rising.

MFI tracks buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. When MFI rises while price stalls, it shows that some investors are still buying dips. This dip buying may explain why MicroStrategy’s stock price has held above recent lows despite institutional exits and weak volume. This also explains 3% green tick over the past 5 days.

But dip buying alone rarely sustains long-term rallies. Without stronger participation from large investors, price recoveries often struggle to continue. This brings the focus to the most important factor now: key MSTR stock price levels.

Key Price Levels Could Decide MSRT’s Next Major Move

The MicroStrategy stock price is currently trading inside a falling broadening wedge pattern that has been forming since November. This structure reflects ongoing volatility and uncertainty.

For the recovery to continue, MicroStrategy must first break above $139. This level is especially important because it aligns with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend indicator that tracks short-term price direction while giving more weight to recent price changes. The last time MicroStrategy reclaimed this level in January, the stock rallied nearly 15% shortly after.

If MSTR breaks above $139, it could gain strength for a move toward $163.

However, downside risks remain significantly stronger. If the MicroStrategy stock price falls below $119, the current structure would weaken considerably. A deeper drop below $106 could open the path toward $96 and potentially $86.

This would represent a decline of nearly 20% from current levels. MicroStrategy’s close relationship with Bitcoin makes this risk even more important.

The company currently holds over 717,000 BTC, meaning its valuation remains highly sensitive to Bitcoin price movements, which itself looks weak.

With institutional investor exits surfacing, volume weakening, and resistance overhead, the MicroStrategy stock price now faces a decisive moment. As markets reopen Monday, the next move could determine whether the recent 30% rebound holds or begins to reverse.

Crypto investment products continued to retreat last week, with outflows totaling $288 million, extending a five-week run of withdrawals that ranks as the longest streak since US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in 2024. The latest figure pushes year-to-date redemptions toward the $4 billion mark, although total outflows remain below the $6 billion pulled during the same period a year earlier. Across the broader crypto ETP landscape, trading activity cooled to $17 billion for the week—the quietest pace since mid-2025—underscoring subdued investor appetite amid lingering risk sentiment and regulatory headlines. Bitcoin led the exodus, while bearish bets persisted in short-BTC products. CoinShares also announced a price cut for Europe’s largest physically backed Bitcoin ETP, a move designed to enhance competitiveness, as detailed in the firm’s report and accompanying filing.

Key takeaways

• Last week’s crypto ETP outflows totaled $288 million, extending a five-week streak and lifting year-to-date withdrawals toward $4 billion.
• Bitcoin funds accounted for the lion’s share, with about $215 million pulled, while short-BITCOIN products drew inflows of $5.5 million—the strongest inflow among crypto assets.
• Ether funds declined by approximately $36.5 million, contributing to year-to-date losses near half a billion dollars; XRP and Solana saw modest inflows of around $3.5 million and $3.3 million.
• CoinShares reduced the management fee on the flagship BITC ETF to 0.15% effective immediately, a deliberate move to improve competitiveness for Europe’s largest physically backed Bitcoin ETP.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs showed signs of renewed activity on a Friday, with volumes rising to about $3.7 billion, even as the week still closed in the red with roughly $316 million in net outflows.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL, $BITC

Sentiment: Bearish

Market context: The ongoing withdrawal cycle in crypto ETPs appears to reflect cautious risk sentiment and selective participation around ETF products, even as some structural improvements—such as lower fees—seek to restore competitiveness. The broader environment includes macro headwinds and evolving regulatory scrutiny that influence investor appetite for crypto-linked products and the speed at which new products attract inflows.

Why it matters

The persistence of outflows in crypto investment products matters because it signals a cautious stance among professional and retail investors toward crypto-linked vehicles, despite constructive developments in the market, such as the introduction of lower-cost products. The outflows are not isolated to one asset class; they span Bitcoin ETPs, Ethereum funds, and smaller-cap crypto listings, illustrating a broad risk-off mood rather than a targeted bet against a single token.

Bitcoin remains the central driver of fund flows. With about $215 million leaving Bitcoin ETPs last week, the asset’s price dynamics continue to influence the mood of the broader ETP segment. Conversely, traders seeking to hedge or express bearish views with limited downside exposure pulled into short-BTC products, which attracted the largest inflow in the crypto-ETP space at $5.5 million. This pattern underscores the persistence of a bear tilt in certain pockets of the market, even as some participants diversify into other assets such as XRP and Solana, which posted modest inflows.

From a product perspective, CoinShares’ move to cut the BITC management fee to 0.15%—a permanent adjustment rather than a promotional incentive—highlights an ongoing alignment between pricing and accessibility. The objective is to attract more long-term holders to Europe’s leading physically backed Bitcoin ETP, potentially stabilizing flows if inflows follow the fee reduction. This is notable because BITC launched in January 2021 with a base fee of 0.98%, so the new rate represents a meaningful re-pricing in a segment that has faced stiff competition and fee pressure.

On the ETF front, spot Bitcoin ETF activity in the United States showed a surprising uptick on what was otherwise a downbeat week. SoSoValue data indicated daily volumes rising to about $3.7 billion, marking a notable shift after several weeks of thinning liquidity. While the week still closed with red ink—$315.9 million in net outflows—the move hints at renewed interest that could foreshadow a more active period if macro conditions remain supportive and if ETF providers continue to refine product features and liquidity channels.

The year-to-date picture remains challenging for Bitcoin ETPs, with net outflows around $1.3 billion in BTC ETPs alone, reflecting the broader struggle to sustain momentum in a market characterized by episodic volatility and regulatory crosswinds. The performance of Ether and other major assets further illustrates that traders are weighing different risk-return profiles, with ETH showing material outflows and XRP/SOL posting smaller inflows as market participants reallocate capital across a wider array of tokens and related products.

In a note accompanying the earnings move, CoinShares’ chief executive Jean-Marie Mognetti framed the pricing shift as a signal of structural change rather than a temporary promotion. The firm’s decision to reduce the BITC fee to 0.15% is intended to reflect an ongoing commitment to accessible pricing, ensuring that investment products remain competitive as demand evolves. Such moves can influence sentiments among institutional and sophisticated retail buyers who closely monitor fee levels when assessing exposure to crypto assets through ETPs.

What to watch next

• Monitor CoinShares’ next weekly flow update for any reversal or continuation of the outflow trend, including asset-specific moves in BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL.
• Track whether BITC’s lower management fee translates into meaningful inflows in the coming weeks and whether similar pricing adjustments spread to other Europe-based crypto ETPs.
• Watch US spot Bitcoin ETF volumes in the next trading sessions, as a fresh wave of demand could alter the week-to-week flow balance.
• Observe whether BTC ETPs maintain their year-to-date outflow pace or show signs of stabilization amid price movements and investor sentiment shifts.

Sources & verification

• CoinShares weekly report (Volume 274) detailing digital asset fund flows and asset-level movements.
• CoinShares press release announcing the 0.15% management fee on BITC, Europe’s largest physically backed Bitcoin ETP.
• SoSoValue data on US spot Bitcoin ETF daily volumes and weekly flow dynamics.
• Cointelegraph coverage of spot Bitcoin ETF activity and the broader fund-flow landscape, including references to five weeks of net outflows.

Crypto flows, fee changes, and the evolving ETF landscape

Last week’s market activity underscored a cautious but evolving ETF environment. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) funds led the charge in outflows, underscoring the sensitivity of BTC-linked products to shifting risk appetite. Investment vehicles covering Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) also posted declines, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) saw smaller, more mixed moves that suggest a rebalancing among investors seeking diversified exposure. The divergence between BTC and altcoin flows, particularly with Bitcoin ETPs contributing substantially to the overall negative tone, highlights how the crypto-asset landscape remains tethered to macro and regulatory cues as much as to token-specific developments. The industry continues to test pricing dynamics and liquidity provisioning, with BITC (EXCHANGE: BITC) now operating at a reduced fee that could reshape competitive dynamics across European-listed crypto products.

On the volume front, Friday’s data from US spot Bitcoin ETFs showed resilience after a stretch of subdued activity, with daily volumes hitting the $3.7 billion mark. While the week finished with a net outflow, the uptick in volumes points to a potential reawakening of interest in physically backed exposures, particularly as investors reassess risk and reward amid volatility in price action and policy signals. The tweet- and data-backed signals surrounding ETF volumes are relevant for traders watching liquidity conditions, as increased activity can improve execution quality and narrow bid-ask spreads for large trades.

From a product design perspective, the BITC fee reduction is a meaningful, real-world adjustment. Lower fees can improve net returns for long-term holders and may help attract new participants who previously found European crypto ETPs comparatively expensive. The price cut—announced by CoinShares and described in public filings—reflects a broader industry trend toward more competitive cost structures as firms chase incremental inflows in a crowded European and global marketplace. While fee reductions do not guarantee immediate inflows, they set a framework in which investors may re-evaluate exposure levels and allocation across a spectrum of assets, including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Solana, as observed in the latest weekly flows.

In sum, the current footpath for crypto ETPs remains mixed: persistent outflows in Bitcoin-focused products contrast with selective inflows in some altcoin-linked funds, while structural changes such as BITC’s fee cut add a new variable to consider for future allocations. The next few weeks will be telling as ETF providers—alongside market participants—assess whether price dynamics, regulatory updates, and ongoing product improvements translate into a more stable or even improving flow environment.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) purchased 51,162 ether (ETH) last week, or roughly $98 million at current prices.

The latest purchase lifted the firm’s total holdings over 4.42 million tokens as of February 22, cornering 3.66% of the token’s total supply, the company said in its latest Monday update. It also holds 193 bitcoin, 691 million in cash, and equity stakes, including a $200 million investment in Beast Industries and a smaller investment in Eightco Holdings.

The company said it is generating $171 million in annualized revenue via staking over 3 million of its ETH holdings.

BMNR is down 2% in pre-market trading and lower by about 60% over the past six months.

With the price of ETH continuing to fall — down another 3% over the past 24 hours to $1,918 — the firm’s losses on its $16.4 billion in purchases now exceed $8 billion, according to DropsTab.

“In the midst of this ‘mini crypto winter,’ our focus continues to be on methodically executing our treasury strategy and steadily acquiring ETH and in turn, optimizing the yield on our ETH holdings,” BitMine chairman Thomas Lee said.

Key Takeaways

• $2 Trillion Trajectory: Analysts project the total stablecoin market capitalization will surge to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, up from roughly $300 billion today.
• Treasury Scarcity: Issuers are expected to absorb approximately $1 trillion in short-term T-bills, creating a potential supply shortfall without Treasury adjustments.
• Regulatory Drivers: The GENIUS Act framework mandates high-quality liquid assets for reserves, forcing issuers to concentrate holdings in the 0-3 month debt sector.