Bitcoin’s often-cited “Ramadan rally” setup may be fading in 2026. However, the volatility pattern many traders have watched in recent years still appears to be present.

To be clear, the holiest month in Islam has nothing to do with digital assets. Crypto trades on global liquidity, macro news, positioning, and sentiment. 

Still, when looking at the last seven Ramadan periods (2019–2025), Bitcoin showed a surprisingly consistent shape in six of seven cases: an early sharp move, then choppy trading, then a later pullback or fade. The main exception was 2020, when a stronger macro recovery trend dominated.

What the Last Seven Ramadans Showed

The pattern was not “Bitcoin always goes up in Ramadan.” That is not true.

Instead, the recurring pattern was more specific: Bitcoin often saw front-loaded volatility, usually with a strong early move, followed by mid-period exhaustion and a weaker finish. In some years, Bitcoin still ended Ramadan higher overall. But even then, price often pulled back after a mid-Ramadan peak.

That makes this less of a directional pattern and more of a timing-and-structure pattern.

What Looks Different in 2026

This year’s first week looks different in one important way. Bitcoin did not open with a clean rally. It opened with chop, then a sharp flush, and only after that started a bounce attempt.

That means the pattern is still familiar in shape — fast move, emotional swing, unstable recovery — but the sequence has changed. The market looks weaker than the stronger Ramadan years, at least so far.

On-Chain Data Shows Why Bitcoin Remains Weak in Q1

The on-chain picture is mixed.

First, the Binance Buying Power Index has dropped to a level that previously appeared near compressed, exhausted conditions. 

That is a contrarian positive. It suggests a relief bounce can happen if selling pressure fades.

Also, network activity has stayed weak for six straight months. That is a structural warning. It suggests demand and participation remain soft, which can make rallies fragile.

Third, short-term holder realized losses remain negative, even after the worst capitulation cooled. 

In simple terms, panic selling has slowed, but many recent buyers are still exiting at a loss. That usually points to base formation, not a confirmed uptrend.

Overall, a relief bounce or choppy recovery attempt is plausible for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, especially if the Binance buying power signal plays out.

But the on-chain demand + STH P/L backdrop suggests that upside may initially be fragile and resistance-heavy.

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In short, the old Ramadan “rally” narrative looks weaker in 2026. Yet the broader pattern of early volatility, sharp swings, and uncertain follow-through remains visible.

Analysis shows sanction-linked wallets amassed major stablecoin balances, underscoring compliance challenges industrywide.

Binance has reported a reduction in its exposure to sanctioned entities, citing a 97% decline since January 2024.

The announcement follows accusations of sanctions violations and claims that investigators were dismissed for raising compliance concerns.

Binance Outperforms Global Peers

Recent reports from Fortune claimed that several investigators were terminated after flagging over $1 billion in transactions linked to Iranian counterparties, primarily involving Tether’s USDT on the Tron blockchain over 18 months.

In addition to the investigators’ terminations, the report indicated that during the last three months, at least four senior compliance employees have been let go or pushed out.

Separately, blockchain analytics platform Elliptic noted in January that wallets tied to the Central Bank of Iran had accumulated more than $500 million in USDT, indicating a growing reliance on stablecoins to bypass banking restrictions.

In response, Binance outlined its compliance measures in a blog post, describing its program as the “best-in-class” and continuously strengthening. Data shared by the exchange shows that sanctions-related exposure as a percentage of total exchange volume fell from 0.284% in January 2024 to 0.009% by July 2025, representing a 96.8% decline.

Direct connection to the four largest Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges also dropped by 97.3% over the period, from $4.19 million to approximately $0.11 million, surpassing ten major global exchange peers in risk reduction. In 2025 alone, the firm says it processed over 71,000 requests from authorities and supported more than $131 million in confiscations.

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These developments come as Binance continues to operate under compliance reforms agreed to during its settlement with U.S. authorities, after the exchange pleaded guilty to anti-money laundering and sanctions violations, paying $4.3 billion in penalties.

Binance Denies Allegations

According to Binance, the recent reporting on its sanctions compliance status is based on incomplete and mischaracterized information that does not reflect the full record.

The company shared that the two entities referenced in the reports underwent structured internal reviews, which confirmed they were not on any sanctions lists while using the platform and that their transactions did not trigger alerts from industry-standard monitoring tools.

Binance added that as soon as new information was discovered, it went on to activate its compliance protocols and took appropriate action.

The exchange also denied accusations that it had dismissed investigation staff for working on these cases, clarifying that some relevant employees departed after an internal review found breaches of company data protection and confidentiality guidelines.

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao also dismissed the claims on social media, stating,

“You can put a negative narrative on anything by talking to an ‘anonymous source’ who is ‘unhappy’ or paid to FUD.”

Bitcoin has faced a tougher trading stretch, dipping under 75,000 for 18 sessions and testing the market’s nerve as policy and macro signals diverge. The asset briefly retraced to around 64,200 after a broad stock retreat, while a decision by the Trump administration to raise baseline import tariffs to 15% added fresh uncertainty. Yet history cautions against assuming a permanent top when liquidity is in flux: Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed other risk assets during stressed macro cycles, aided by persistent mining activity and a growing cohort of professional traders using volatility to adjust exposure. In this environment, Bitcoin remains a focal point for liquidity dynamics and institutional positioning, with fundamentals showing resilience even as headlines churn.

Key takeaways

• Historical data suggests Bitcoin often outperforms during trade wars and liquidity injections, even when macro fears are elevated.
• Mining activity has proven resilient, and a shift to net long positions on CME futures signals professional traders are adding exposure on dips.
• Policy shocks, such as tariffs implemented in early April 2025, coincide with sharp price moves—Bitcoin hit a five-month low near 74,600 before staging a subsequent rally.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve’s liquidity facilities have historically been a source of indirect support, with peak repo-like operations sometimes foreshadowing price rebounds in BTC.
• Hashrate recovery and profitable mining hardware at modest electricity costs have reduced tail risks from miner capitulations, helping sustain network fundamentals.
• Market positioning by large speculators flipped from net short to net long on BTC futures, a signal that has sometimes preceded major price bottoms.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $NVDA, $ORCL, $MARA, $CRWV

Sentiment: Bullish

Price impact: Positive. Dip-buying by institutions and improving mining fundamentals could support a move back toward key benchmarks.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given mixed macro cues, a cautious stance is warranted until price action and policy signals provide clearer direction.

Market context: Liquidity conditions and regulatory developments are shaping near-term outcomes, with network health and futures positioning acting as important indicators for BTC’s trajectory.

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s resilience amid policy jitters matters because it tests the narrative of crypto as a hedge in times of macro stress. When governments signal tighter control or aggressive tariff actions, liquidity dynamics often determine whether risk assets liquidate or rotate into alternatives with unique inflation-hedging characteristics. The fact that miners’ revenue streams have remained resilient, and that professional traders have shifted toward net long exposure on futures, adds a layer of credibility to the idea that BTC can stabilize and recover rather than cascade lower during periods of uncertainty.

Another dimension is the health of the mining sector. With 2024 and 2025 ASICs continuing to operate profitably at practical energy costs around $0.07 per kilowatt-hour, miners have less incentive to withdraw from the network even as AI-fueled tech equities face tighter funding. This reduces systemic risk linked to hash rate collapse and supports on-chain activity. The interplay between policy developments and the macro funding environment remains a central driver for BTC, and current data points suggest a favorable tilt for a potential retest of higher levels in the near term. For readers tracking the broader ecosystem, recent company dynamics—such as MARA’s stake in Exaion—underscore how mining-related investments are increasingly intertwining with data-center and AI-capital narratives.

In parallel, a shift in trader positioning has emerged as a recurring theme. A CFTC report published last week highlighted that large speculators on CME Bitcoin futures moved from a net short to a net long posture, a pattern that has, in past cycles, preceded sizeable price bottoms. While no single indicator confirms a bottom, the combination of improving miner fundamentals, a potential stabilization of liquidity metrics, and a cautious, yet constructive, positioning backdrop can augur a more constructive tone for the BTC market in the weeks ahead. The price action already reflected a bounce from the mid-60ks toward the 75k area in the near term, and market participants will be watching how this dynamic interacts with ongoing macro developments and policy updates.

What to watch next

• The latest CME Bitcoin futures positioning data from the CFTC showing net long shifts among large speculators.
• Hashrate and miner profitability trends, especially at around $0.07/kWh energy costs.
• Policy developments—new tariffs or liquidity actions—that could impact risk sentiment.
• Upcoming earnings or funding moves in the AI hardware and data-center space, including Nvidia results.
• Price action around the $75,000 level and whether BTC tests this midpoint in the coming weeks.

Sources & verification

• Executive orders on reciprocal tariffs issued in early April 2025 and subsequent tariff actions affecting major trading partners.
• CFTC report detailing the shift from net short to net long on CME Bitcoin futures.
• HashRateIndex data on miner gross profits at a power cost of $0.07/kWh.
• Bitcoin’s price responses during the 2020 COVID-19 crash and subsequent multi-month rally to the $42,000 level.
• Industry reference to MARA’s stake in Exaion and the broader mining sector’s status.

Bitcoin resilience amid policy jitters and miners’ rebound

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has weathered a fresh bout of volatility as traders reassess risk in a climate of heightened policy scrutiny. After drifting below the psychological 75,000 mark for 18 sessions, the digital asset touched a low near 64,200 as global equities pulled back. The catalyst was a wave of tariff actions announced in early April 2025, including reciprocal duties across many trading partners and a 34% levy targeting China by April 9. The immediate backdrop was, in many ways, a reminder of how macro policy can ripple through risk assets even asBitcoin continues to attract a dedicated pool of long-term holders and enthusiasts. Yet the price reaction also underscored a familiar pattern: when liquidity conditions tighten, BTC often behaves unlike traditional equities, with the potential for outsized rebounds when sentiment stabilizes.

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin’s network has shown considerable resilience. The mining sector—with ASICs deployed in 2024 and 2025—has remained profitable at modest energy costs, reducing the risk of mass capitulations that could threaten hash rate. The observable improvement in the hashrate relative to earlier delays helped counter fears of a miner “death spiral” and supported on-chain activity. This improvement matters more than flat price moves because a robust hash rate underpins transaction throughput and security, which in turn sustains confidence among holders and developers alike. For investors following the mining landscape, the narrative has shifted from existential risk to a more nuanced assessment of profitability and supply dynamics, with miners continuing to contribute to BTC’s forward resilience.

The macro narrative around policy and liquidity remains a central force. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s liquidity facilities—lending against Treasuries to smooth funding markets—have historically influenced risk appetite, even if not always framed as direct injections. In past episodes, peaks in such operations have often coincided with safer moments for risk assets, including BTC, as market participants anticipate a policy environment that will eventually stabilize. In the current cycle, traders are poring over data on repo-like operations and balance-sheet conditions to gauge whether a more accommodative liquidity backdrop could re-emerge, providing a tailwind for BTC in the weeks ahead. The discussion around liquidity is complemented by linked policy moves, such as the tariff actions described above, which can amplify risk-off or risk-on impulses depending on how the broader economy absorbs the shocks and whether policymakers offer mitigants or liquidity backstops.

Adding another layer to the story, institutional players have started to reallocate exposure during pullbacks. A recent analysis noted that professional traders used the dip to add Bitcoin exposure, with long positions on CME futures expanding at a pace that historically signals a renewed appetite for BTC among sophisticated funds. That shift aligns with the broader narrative of a maturing market where liquidity, hedging demand, and macro risk sentiment converge to form potential baselines for a recovery. In parallel, the data points cited in industry commentary—such as MARA’s stake in Exaion—highlight how capital moves within the mining and AI infrastructure ecosystem can influence both sentiment and the capital flows into related hardware and data-center ventures. For traders and observers, this confluence of mining fundamentals, futures positioning, and policy dynamics provides a clearer, albeit still uncertain, path toward higher levels if the catalysts align.

Looking ahead, the near-term trajectory will likely hinge on how quickly the macro environment absorbs tariff signals, how the liquidity backdrop evolves, and whether Bitcoin can sustain a momentum lead beyond the 75,000 threshold. The market has shown a capacity to rally after drawdowns tied to policy shocks, as evidenced by the 38% rebound observed in the month following the initial low. If this dynamic persists, BTC could carve a path back toward the mid- to upper-70s in the coming weeks, aided by a combination of supportive hashrate trends, a possible shift in futures positioning, and any signs that macro liquidity will re-enter the system with a clear framework. In the meantime, investors will be watching for more granular signals—from CME futures data to mining profitability metrics—that can help distinguish a temporary bounce from the beginning of a sustained upcycle.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on track to post a fourth consecutive month of net outflows as Bitcoin (BTC) approaches a fifth negative monthly close in February. The slowdown is visible across the shrinking fund balances and the bearish rolling net flow data, especially when measured against competing asset ETFs.

With Bitcoin price and the spot ETF holdings trending lower since October, investors are searching for answers on what the future may hold for BTC.

Bitcoin ETFs dominate headlines

Net assets held in US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked near $170 billion in October 2025 and now stand at $84.3 billion. The cumulative net inflows have fallen to roughly $54 billion from the $63 billion all-time high. Since July 2025, cumulative net flows have totaled just $5 billion, underscoring the sharp drop in capital inflows.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked seven sessions between Feb. 12 and Feb. 19 and found the net ETF outflows totaled 11,042 BTC. Feb. 12 marked the largest single-day reduction at 6,120 BTC, or about $416 million. The Feb. 17 and Feb. 18 sessions saw back-to-back outflows of 1,520 and 1,980 BTC, respectively. Only two sessions were positive, with the Feb. 6 session adding 5,900 BTC to the funds.

Adler said that three consecutive positive sessions are needed to confirm renewed accumulation in the ETFs. Until then, the flows continue to act as a source of supply for the market.

The macroeconomic data align with the cooling trend. The ETFs have shed about 87,000 BTC since November 2025, including roughly 15,000 BTC in February. The total ETF balances now sit near 1.26 million BTC, down from the 1.36 million BTC peak.

The selling pressure from the largest BTC funds has been measured. BlackRock’s IBIT holdings declined to 759,000 BTC from 806,000 BTC, a 6% reduction. Fidelity’s FBTC dropped to 186,000 BTC from 213,000 BTC, a 12.6% decline.

Bitcoin price has fallen far more sharply than the ETF balances, while the spot market demand has appeared insufficient to fully absorb the broader market pressure.

Gold steals the spotlight from the BTC ETFs

Over the past two years, the Bitcoin and gold ETFs have rotated leadership based on the 90-day rolling flows. The Bitcoin 90-day inflows peaked near $16 billion in March 2024, cooled to $3 to $4 billion between June and October, and then surged to $21.6 billion in December 2024.

The gold ETFs took a different route. The flows stayed negative until July 2024, then accelerated to $30 billion by April 2025. During March and April 2025, the Bitcoin 90-day flows slipped to negative $2 billion.

Gold peaked again at $36 billion in October 2025, while the Bitcoin inflows faded into the final quarter. In January 2026, the gold flows reached $29 billion before easing to $21 billion by mid-February as Bitcoin flows remained in negative territory.

The data show a repeated handoff between the two assets. The periods of weakening Bitcoin ETF demand aligned with the surges in gold inflows, particularly between March and October 2025.

In relative terms, the gold ETFs captured incremental capital as investors leaned toward the asset with smaller price swings and the longer track record during risk-off phases.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs shed $166M as BTC heads for worst start in years

“Restrictive digestion” hits the Bitcoin demand

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen classifies the first quarter of 2026 as a “late-cycle restrictive digestion” phase for the equities and the crypto markets.

The US Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening in December 2025, halting the balance sheet runoff, but the monetary policy remains restrictive relative to the market growth expectations. The federal funds rate still sits above the 2-year Treasury yield, while the 10-year yield trades near 4.1% and the 10-year real yield holds around 1.7%–1.8%, keeping the financial conditions tight.

The positive real yields mean investors can earn inflation-adjusted returns in the fixed income markets, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

Cowen noted that in the prior tightening cycles, Bitcoin price weakened before equities showed stress. In 2019, BTC price rolled over months ahead of the broader weakness in equities. 

Historically, the durable ETF inflows have followed the falling real yields or a clear easing cycle. Neither condition has developed yet, which may explain the slowdown in demand for Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025.

Related: Bitcoin ignores US Supreme Court Trump tariff strike amid talk of $150B refund