There are no automatics when it comes to betting on the NFL.
Oddsmakers are dialed in on the point spread. And if your NFL wagers are somehow hitting above .500 over an extended period of time, then count yourself fortunate.
That said, if you just blindly bet the Detroit Lions against the spread (ATS) every week since the middle of the 2022 season, then you’d have a 29-8 ATS record and quite a bit more money.
Does that trend hold up in NFL Week 9 odds, when the Lions travel to face the Green Bay Packers?
Early bettors seem to think so.
“To nobody’s surprise, they’re playing the team everybody loves to bet, which is the Lions,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “The Lions are amazing, and they’re really fun to watch.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Lions vs. Packers and a handful of other games, as we dive into NFL Week 9 betting nuggets.
NFL Rocks On FOX
The known facts about Lions-Packers: This matchup is easily the Game of the Week, and it’s on FOX at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday. Also known as the weekend approaches, Detroit is a 3-point road favorite at Caesars Sports, down from a -4.5 opener on Sunday.
But the unknown is the issue: Will Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love play? Love suffered a groin injury in the second half of the Packers’ 30-27 win at Jacksonville in Week 8.
Love didn’t practice Wednesday and remains questionable for Sunday’s NFC North showdown.
“This is a tougher game to book, because we’re really not getting the full picture on whether Jordan Love is gonna play,” Feazel said. “If he’s out, this line goes to Lions -4.5. If he’s playing, I think maybe we see this going to Lions -1.5/-1.”
But again, early bettors like the favorite.
“They don’t think Love is gonna play,” Feazel said.
Detroit is 6-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season, while Green Bay is 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay went 1-1 on point-spread bets last week, cashing on Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings and falling just short on New York Giants +7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers.
McKay has three NFL plays this week, starting with the Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens. He likes underdog Denver at +9.5 or +10.
“Baltimore is coming off the loss to Cleveland, and faces a Denver team with a strong defense that should match up with the Ravens’ running game,” McKay said. “Baltimore’s defense is still banged up, so I see this game closer and lower scoring.”
How much does Diontae Johnson help the Ravens?
McKay is also on the underdog Indianapolis Colts +5.5/+6 vs. the Minnesota Vikings. He likes the Colts’ move to Joe Flacco at quarterback, benching Anthony Richardson. Plus, the Vikes lost standout left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending knee injury.
On Tuesday, Minnesota acquired left tackle Cam Robinson in a trade with Jacksonville.
Despite losing with the Giants last week, McKay is going with Big Blue again this week. He likes New York +3.5/+4 vs. the Washington Commanders.
“The Giants are coming off a tough loss, where they looked like the right side against the spread,” McKay said of New York’s 26-18 setback at Pittsburgh. “This is a rematch from Week 2, where the Giants should’ve won the game, but the kicker got injured. I see another close one here.”
New York place-kicker Graham Gano was hurt early in that Week 2 game. The Giants lost 21-18 as 1.5-point road underdogs.
Commanding Attention
The public betting masses often tend to remember what they saw last. In Week 8, that was mostly a miraculous Commanders prayer answered in an 18-15 victory over the Chicago Bears.
Meanwhile, on Monday night, the visiting Giants lost to the Steelers 26-18.
“People are gonna remember Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary and Daniel Jones not playing well on Monday night,” Feazel said while speaking about this Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX between the Commanders and Giants. “We’re seeing one-way action on the Commanders.
“The Commanders are really becoming a public team. Daniels is making some noise in Washington.”
Nick wants Bears-Commanders bet back, Jayden Daniels not ranked over Caleb Williams
NFL Quick Hits
Feazel touched on two other notable games in NFL Week 9 odds:
- Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Caesars opened Buffalo as a 6-point home favorite, spent a couple days at -6.5, then went to -6 on Tuesday afternoon. “We’re taking a lot of Bills money here. It’s one-way action so far.” Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: In the Monday night game, Kansas City is pinned to -9 at Caesars. “So far, not a lot of action. It’s a pretty high number at 9, so some of the sharper customers are playing the Bucs. The Chiefs aren’t really winning because of Patrick Mahomes. They’re winning because of their defense. Kansas City has looked vulnerable at times. But I do expect to see more Chiefs action, because the Bucs are so banged up.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There are no reported six-figure plays yet in NFL Week 9 odds. But trust me, they’re coming. They always do. Three notable wagers at Caesars Sports:
- $22,000 Panthers +7.5 vs. Saints: Carolina is a league-worst 1-7 SU and ATS. The Panthers have lost five consecutive games on the scoreboard and on the point spread. The Caesars customer is just hoping Carolina can stay within seven at home vs. New Orleans. If that happens, then the customer profits $20,000 (total payout $42,000).
- $11,000 Raiders +7.5 vs. Bengals: If underdog Las Vegas covers, then the bettor profits $10,000 (total payout $21,000)
- $11,000 Packers +4.5 vs. Lions: This bet will look a lot better if Love plays and the line drops to +1 or so by kickoff. If the ticket hits, then the bettor profits $10,000 (total payout $21,000).
And just a reminder: We like little bets that win a lot, too.
If the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series, a FanDuel Sportsbook customer would move one step closer to turning five bucks into a whopping $823,705.
Provided the Dodgers finish off the New York Yankees, all that remains is a Detroit Lions Super Bowl to complete this eight-leg parlay of championship winners.
It’s hard not to root for that!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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