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Bitcoin’s price discovery is moving to Chicago

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Bitcoin's price discovery is moving to Chicago

Bitcoin , once hailed as an anti-establishment asset and antithesis to Wall Street, may now bend to sharp traders from those same floors.

Trading in the leading cryptocurrency is steadily shifting toward CME Group, and the exchange’s move to 24/7 derivatives later this year could cement its role as the dominant venue for institutional crypto risk.

The change removes one of the last advantages held by crypto exchanges: nonstop market access.

“You’ll see more traditional hedge fund managers getting more into the asset class, because they’ll be able to trade it on instruments they know, without having to upgrade their tech or move their signals,” Karl Naim, Chief Commercial Officer at XBTO, told CoinDesk. “Why would they want to take a counterparty risk of an entity they don’t know?”

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CME already leads regulated bitcoin futures markets by open interest, and its contracts underpin much of the hedging activity tied to U.S. spot ETFs. Until now, however, trading paused over the weekend, producing the well-known “CME gaps” and leaving institutional investors unable to adjust positions while offshore exchanges continued operating.

Around-the-clock trading removes that constraint. Institutions that once relied solely on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or avoided weekend exposure will be able to hedge continuously, tightening arbitrage windows between prices for regulated futures and offshore perpetual swaps.

As those gaps disappear, so too does the need for large allocators to maintain exposure on crypto exchanges simply for access. For institutions that prioritize regulatory clarity and established clearinghouses, CME begins to look less like an alternative and more like the default.

Even crypto exchange executives are aware of this. In January, OKX President Hong Fang wrote in a CoinDesk op-ed that crypto derivatives trading could one day rival or even surpass spot volumes on major global exchanges, making U.S. regulated volatility markets an even stronger anchor for bitcoin price discovery worldwide.

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Institutions calling the shots

For Naim, the shift reflects a broader evolution in how capital enters bitcoin. What began as a grassroots activism by retail traders chasing BTC as an alternative to Wall Street has flipped upside down, with traditional institutions now calling the shots.

“Today we speak to a lot of the sovereigns, a lot of the institutions. They go for what they know,” he said, describing allocators that first accessed the asset through spot ETFs before considering more complex strategies.

With institutional positioning carrying more weight, bitcoin’s short-term direction increasingly reflects global risk sentiment.

“If [Trump attacks Iran], obviously what we’re going to see is that it’s going to be all risk off,” Naim said, referring to a potential forced regime change in Iran by the U.S. “Gold already started rallying. Equities will go down. Bitcoin will go down.”

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In that framework, bitcoin behaves less like a standalone crypto trade and more like a macro instrument, priced alongside equities and commodities rather than apart from them.

Naim acknowledged the irony.

“Bitcoin was all about decentralization,” he said.

But as institutional capital scales and liquidity consolidates within regulated clearinghouses, the infrastructure surrounding the asset is becoming increasingly centralized — because institutional money chases risk assets, not risky platforms.

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Crypto World

Canaan expands U.S. mining operations with purchase of Cipher’s Texas JV stake

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Bitcoin (BTC) mining stocks rallied in January despite softer BTC prices: JPMorgan

Canaan Inc. (CAN), a manufacturer of bitcoin mining hardware and an operator of crypto mining infrastructure, said it bought a 49% equity interest in a joint venture tied to several mining projects in West Texas from Cipher Mining (CIFR) for $39.75 million in stock.

The transaction covers Cipher’s stake in the ABC Projects, which include Alborz LLC, Bear LLC and Chief Mountain LLC. The rest of the venture is owned by WindHQ, according to a Monday statement.

The purchase was funded through the issuance of 806.4 million Class A ordinary shares, equivalent to 53.8 million American depositary shares, and makes Cipher, a U.S.-based bitcoin mining company that develops and operates large-scale data centers, a major shareholder in Singapore-based Canaan. The shares are subject to a six-month lock-up.

Canaan shares fell 6% on Monday, while Cipher shares rose 4%. Cipher is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on Feb. 24.

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The sites collectively operate 120 megawatts of energized power capacity and support approximately 4.4 exahashes per second (EH/s) of hashrate. Fleet efficiency stands at roughly 25.7 joules per terahash (J/TH).

As part of the agreement, Canaan also purchased 6,840 Avalon A15Pro mining rigs that were previously deployed at Cipher’s Black Pearl facility, which is being converted into an AI and high-performance computing data center.

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Trump Crypto Company Says ‘Coordinated Attack‘ on Stablecoin Failed

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Hackers, Donald Trump, Social Media, Stablecoin

World Liberty Financial, the crypto company backed by US President Donald Trump and his sons, reported being targeted by hackers, “paid influencers” and short sellers in an effort to “manufacture chaos” against the USD1 stablecoin.

In a Monday X post, World Liberty said the attack, which happened earlier in the day, failed after hackers targeted “several WLFI cofounder accounts,” opened “massive shorts” against the company’s WLFI token, and “paid influencers to spread FUD [fear, uncertainty, and doubt].”

The price of WLFI dipped by about 7% amid the “manufactured chaos,” according to the company, but was trading at $0.1128 at the time of publication. USD1 similarly dropped to about $0.994, briefly losing its peg to the US dollar, before returning to more than $0.999.

“Thanks to USD1’s sound mint-and-redeem mechanism and full 1:1 backing, we are trading steadily at par,” said World Liberty. No scammer can shake the long-term commitment of the entire WLFI team and cofounders to USD1.”

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Hackers, Donald Trump, Social Media, Stablecoin
Source: World Liberty Financial

The attack came just days after a World Liberty-organized crypto forum at Trump’s private Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, which included speakers from the US government, crypto and banking industries, and former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, whom the president pardoned in October 2025. Forbes reported on Feb. 9 that Binance holds about 87% of the USD1 in circulation, worth about $4.7 billion at the time.

Related: OCC Comptroller says WLFI charter review will remain apolitical

Ties between WLFI and Binance are still under scrutiny

Some US lawmakers are questioning potential connections between World Liberty and Binance entities after Trump’s pardon of Zhao.

The former CEO had been barred from a leadership role at Binance as a result of a 2023 deal with US authorities in which he later served four months in prison, but the presidential pardon would effectively allow him to legally return. Zhao said in January that there were “no business relationships whatsoever” between himself and the Trump family, and he did not intend to return to lead Binance.

Both Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal have reported that Binance helped create USD1. The stablecoin was also used to settle a $2 billion investment by UAE-based company MGX into Binance in March 2025, leading to conflict of interest accusations due to WLFI’s ties to the president’s family.

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