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The price range that decides MSTR’s fate

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The price range that decides MSTR’s fate

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor has piled up cash for over two years of dividend payments and claims that the company can survive a bitcoin (BTC) crash all the way to $8,000.

Although the company itself might survive that crash, common shareholders will actually lose every last theoretical claim to the company’s treasury below a BTC price of $20,094 — far higher than Strategy’s $8,000 corporate survival threshold.

Claims on Strategy’s BTC are, in actual fact, entirely theoretical.

Despite the company’s proud publication of metrics like BTC per share (BPS) or multiple-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV), its lawyers carefully disclaim that neither common nor preferred shareholders have any redemption right to Strategy’s treasury.

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No publicly-traded Strategy stock confers any ownership interest in the BTC the company holds.

Nonetheless, MSTR shareholders often talk about BPS or mNAV as shorthand, colloquial valuation metrics for their shares.

To that end, with BTC down over 40% in just six months and crashing below $63,000 last night, it’s worth recalculating the value of MSTR, the common stock of the world’s largest BTC treasury company.

 $16.672 billion in senior claims above MSTR

Today, there are $16.672 billion in senior claims above MSTR on Strategy’s capital stack: $8.214 billion in debt and $8.459 billion in preferred shares.

Although preferreds don’t mature, they’re senior to commons in the event of bankruptcy. The company must also make $896 million in annual interest and dividend payments, not to mention salaries, compliance obligations, legal expenses, and other costs to service real estate, equipment, and payables.

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As assets for all of its series of stock outstanding, Strategy owns a small software business, 717,722 BTC, and $2.25 billion in cash, worth a combined $47.65 billion at a BTC price of $63,270.

This is excluding the small software business that was worth less than $1.8 billion for the three years prior to Strategy pivoting into becoming a BTC acquisition company.

If BTC were to fall below $20,094, bondholders and preferred shareholders would consume the entire value of the company’s BTC and USD treasuries, leaving no claim for MSTR beyond residual, pure call option-like premium on the hope that BTC might rally again. 

Read more: 100% of Strategy’s convertible debt is now out-of-the-money

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MSTR can wave goodbye to Strategy’s treasury below $20,094

At $20,094 per BTC, the value of Strategy’s 717,722 BTC and $2.25 billion would equal its convertible and preferred claims of $16.672 billion, leaving nothing for MSTR.

Perhaps the software business might cushion a few hundred dollars more per BTC, although it’s been declining in both top and bottom line performance for years.

In any case, the calculation as to what BTC level consumes the entire treasury above MSTR on Strategy’s capital stack is a revealing exercise in basic accounting. Although Strategy prefers its own, self-serving calculators and dashboards, alternative tools exist to recalculate those figures using more conservative assumptions.

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Crypto World

Price Falls While Network Activity Surges

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Successful payment on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPScan

XRP Ledger recorded multiple breakthrough metrics in February. These figures reflect Ripple’s effectiveness in attracting attention and accelerating adoption on its underlying blockchain.

However, XRP’s price remained stuck below $1.4 during the final week of February, despite several positive signals that predicted an upcoming recovery.

Activity on XRP Ledger Increased in February After Upgrades

Data from XRPscan shows that the number of successful payments on the XRP Ledger has continuously increased over the past month. The figure rose from a low of 1 million payments at the end of December last year to more than 2.7 million in February. This marks the highest level in 12 months.

Successful payment on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPScan
Successful payment on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPscan

On the XRP Ledger, a successful payment is a transaction that validators have confirmed and recorded on the distributed ledger.

Therefore, this increase reflects the growing vibrancy of the XRP Ledger. A higher number of successful transactions proves that users genuinely use the network for payments, transfers, DeFi, or other applications.

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“XRP network activity stays strong. Around 2M transactions per day and roughly 40K active addresses. That is real usage. While most chains chase narratives, XRPL keeps moving value. Payments. Settlements. This kind of consistency is what institutions look for,” crypto investor CryptoSensei said.

In addition, the Automated Market Maker (AMM) on the XRPL DEX showed signs of a breakout, with more than 14,000 deposits. This development provides XRPL with additional decentralized liquidity and reduces trading slippage.

AMM Deposit on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPScan.
AMM Deposit on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPscan.

Notably, AMM activity has never been this before. This breakout occurred after the Permissioned Domains upgrade was activated in early February. The network enabled the Permissioned DEX two weeks later.

Investors expect the Permissioned DEX to pave the way for banks, payment providers, and financial institutions to trade within a controlled liquidity environment on XRP Ledger.

Despite these positive signs, XRP’s price continued into its fifth consecutive month of decline, and the final week of February closed in the red. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.33, down 45% from its early-year high.

XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Price
XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Price

A recent report from BeInCrypto shows that rising whale inflows to exchanges continue to create selling pressure. Realized losses have reached their highest level since 2022.

However, historical signals also suggest that such extreme negativity often precedes a price bottom and a strong recovery. The latest analysis from BeInCrypto clarifies that XRP now needs confirmation through a breakout above the $1.47 resistance level.

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Nansen to Set up Bhutan Entity in Gelephu Mindfulness City

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Bitcoin Adoption, Bhutan

Blockchain analytics company Nansen will establish a local entity and build a Bhutan-based team in Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), expanding into the kingdom as its Special Administrative Region advances its digital asset strategy.

According to a joint announcement shared with Cointelegraph, Nansen plans to incorporate within GMC and develop on-the-ground analytics capabilities to provide blockchain data and market intelligence to industry participants operating in the region.

GMC is a purpose-built Special Administrative Region in southern Bhutan focused on long-term economic development. The region has previously announced digital asset initiatives spanning custody infrastructure, tokenization, institutional liquidity and regulatory frameworks.